Should we still be backing Ukraine?

[DocWatts]

What's tricky about this situation is that Putin is at fault for invading Ukraine,

While the US and NATO are at fault for the destabilization of Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union that catapulted Putin into power, effectively smothering Russia's chance to transition to democracy in the cradle.

Edited May 22 by DocWatts

[BlueOak]

20 hours ago, Karmadhi said:

Ukraine was neutral until 2013, if not somewhat pro Russia. Then the maiden revolution happened and the country started moving towards the West.

Regarding that, there are several theories. Some say it was a US backed coup. Some say it was the majority will of Ukrainian people. Personally, I do not know, I am not informed enough so cannot say. But "Ukraine moving west" is a development as of the last 10 years. It is new. It was independent since 1991, do not forget that. I saw Yanakovic guy was pretty corrupt and he fled to Russia. Makes sense they wanted him out. But the guy after, was also an oligarch and super corrupt too, so it wonders if there was actually any real change until Zelensky came. And now Zelensky has a ton of corruption accusations. So this whole thing is a big mess. I do not know what to believe. All I can say is that Ukraine was forced to do some good anti corruption reform from 2022 because EU asked them to for EU integration and it seems according to EU Commission that the country started moving westwards. But I do not know if any progress was done about Ukraine from 2014 until 2022. 

Most countries are getting better. It includes Russia, China, India, Poland, Rwanda etc.

Perhaps. I am not informed enough to say whether what you say is legit or not. I do know that in Russia you do not see hundreds of thousands of people dying in 2 years because of "Putin's oppression" so the war is a much bigger killer than any oppression.

And you are arguing for national identities holding more importance than human life. That is a somewhat stage blue nationalistic point of view.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/22/world/europe/russia-ukraine-toll-bodies.html#:~:text=be independently verified.-,Mr.,and 100%2C000 to 120%2C000 wounded.

"Mr. Zelensky’s accounting of Ukrainian casualties differs sharply from estimates by U.S. officials, who, this past summer said that close to 70,000 Ukrainians had been killed and 100,000 to 120,000 wounded."

I would pick US estimates over Ukranian ones. Just like I would pick US estimates over Russian ones. It is not wise to take into account what parties involved in war have to say since they have heavily biased agendas.

I have almost no national identity beyond self-preservation or romantic moments of culture. I am arguing for the fate of Europe, including Ukraine, to be rationally considered beyond your: Hoping that the ongoing pattern of Putin's aggressive expansion stops because it's painful to witness, and you have a belief that he follows a relatable set of beliefs. I'm not immune to that because I have green in me; it's just not my sole focus. (And you raise some points, but that is your main thrust)

I am giving you a stage yellow description of events with as many factors and patterns as possible, including Russian ones, and European fears being manifested/managed. Most of the people we are talking about are in Red, Orange, or Blue, so I have to rationalize from their perspective, not my hopes or wishes. I have to tell you what's going on and why, not how I want it to be, even if that flavors the text. That's the difference between your morals and a pattern. The way to improve my perspective is for a Russian who understands Russia better than I do to comment and deepen my understanding, for other speakers to add things I hadn't considered, or for a more transcendent turquoise perspective to smooth my more rigid focus on patterns; green can do that, but usually, it's too hyper-focused on a self-set code of ethics and morals which the world doesn't share. - That's painful. I am sorry, but showing you that is how you realize their limits.

Ukraine had been leaning west for decades. 1994 I believe were the first moves (my main search duckduckgo is down, so I am using an alternative) - Heck Russia was leaning west at one stage.
https://theconversation.com/a-short-history-of-ukraines-relationship-with-the-european-union-178350

Most countries are developing, not necessarily better for the average person. That's a whole other conversation. 

A country suffers when its people do not want the type of ruler and authority that currently runs the country; the level of suffering is often the disparity between the two. Wars are a particular case, obviously, but the suffering was guaranteed the moment Putin tried to rule over people who were not of a close enough mindset.

Personally, I wouldn't pick US estimates for this. Too much of their country is pro-Russia, but I do take your point about where you are getting your numbers from.
The main reason is that it wouldn't have lasted a year if this were closer to 1.5 to one in terms of casualties. I don't know what you'll say if this goes on for 5 years? 

Edited May 23 by BlueOak

[Karmadhi]

On 5/23/2024 at 3:15 PM, BlueOak said:

Ukraine had been leaning west for decades

Economically yes, since EU is very rich and tempting. But culturally they are quite a blue society with blue values. I see them as a poorer Hungary or Poland. Tons of racism and anti LGBT etc.

On 5/23/2024 at 3:15 PM, BlueOak said:

Heck Russia was leaning west at one stage.

And its economy got totally destroyed by the West. A big reason Putin is against the West is that. You can see their gdp go down a lot during those years and then once Putin comes to power it starts growing a lot. Russia could have indeed been a western ally but the west wanted to milk it instead. Heck, Putin even tried to join NATO in the beginning but once he saw NATO was an US monopoly to do what US wants, he backed down. Sad chance to form a Russian Western alliance wasted.

On 5/23/2024 at 3:15 PM, BlueOak said:

A country suffers when its people do not want the type of ruler and authority that currently runs the country; the level of suffering is often the disparity between the two. Wars are a particular case, obviously, but the suffering was guaranteed the moment Putin tried to rule over people who were not of a close enough mindset.

Totally agreed. I think the main point here is how Western minded Ukraine was BEFORE the war. Now, I do not deny they are basically anti Russian. But before the war, I do not think they were much different in terms of values. But that is my opinion, I may be wrong.

On 5/23/2024 at 3:15 PM, BlueOak said:

Personally, I wouldn't pick US estimates for this. Too much of their country is pro-Russia, but I do take your point about where you are getting your numbers from.

I am open to other sources as long as they are not from the parties directly involved which in this case is Ukraine or Russia. 

Lastly, i would like your explanation about something, off topic.

I heard from many people I know that Ukranians in the West tend to be a bit anti Russian. They have been historically. They attribute it especially to the Soviet made famine in the 1930s. Ok, I get that.

But how come that they are not much anti German, considering the Nazis killed more people than the Soviet famine did.

If Ukraine wants to have dislikes for countries based on historical injustices how come Germany gets a free pass?

Would like your opinion on it.

Edited May 25 by Karmadhi

[BlueOak]

 

• France officially sends instructors to Ukraine to train troops.
• NATO discusses closing the skies in the west of Ukraine to stop missile strikes and air attacks.
• France, Poland, the UK, and Estonia want to expand aid. The US and Germany oppose it.

So I would really appreciate it if people could take things like this into account when they keep saying this is America vs Russia

 

[BlueOak]

On 5/25/2024 at 1:17 PM, Karmadhi said:

I heard from many people I know that Ukranians in the West tend to be a bit anti Russian. They have been historically. They attribute it especially to the Soviet made famine in the 1930s. Ok, I get that.

But how come that they are not much anti German, considering the Nazis killed more people than the Soviet famine did.

If Ukraine wants to have dislikes for countries based on historical injustices how come Germany gets a free pass?

Would like your opinion on it.

Because this is not historical it's going on right now. Civilians have been bombed by Putin for two and a half years, and his troops have committed numerous atrocities and war crimes against people they know and love.

The region itself has constantly been invaded by Russia, and their governments have been messed around by Russian leaders. Germany is not pushing its influence out in the same way Russia is. Russia has never stopped doing this or evolved into a more stable or harmonious neighbor. Right now, it's creating a greater Russia and pushing its sphere of influence out, like China is; Germany is not. If Germany were acting like Hitler or Putin it'd get the same hate.

Ukrainians got on just fine till Russia stirred up trouble with its Donbas militias. Almost everyone knew the Russian language; it wasn't two radically different cultures; there were a lot of EX-Soviet similarities. Now, there is hatred, which will exist for a few generations. I couldn't comment if the west and the east were specifically different to be in or around; I mean, the north and the south of England are somewhat different, which brings a bit of tension, primarily done in good humor. I hear it's the same in Italy; some of that is normal across different geography and local customs.

Edited May 28 by BlueOak

[BlueOak]

I don't assign the full weight of independence to Belarus; they are a satellite or proxy state of Russia, but it is a violation of the treaty. It was assumed the weapons would be under Russian control, and I wouldn't be surprised if this statement was rolled back; it seems to be overstepping their authority.

Either way, Poland needs them now.

As covered above, NATO weapons can be used in Russian border region now, primarily to stabilize the Kharkiv frontline.
 

 

Edited June 3 by BlueOak

[Karmadhi]

On 28/05/2024 at 1:51 PM, BlueOak said:

Because this is not historical it's going on right now. Civilians have been bombed by Putin for two and a half years, and his troops have committed numerous atrocities and war crimes against people they know and love.

Yes, but I was refering to their attitude before 2014. There was tons of hate. 

On 28/05/2024 at 1:51 PM, BlueOak said:

The region itself has constantly been invaded by Russia, and their governments have been messed around by Russian leaders.

Yanakovic was democratically elected. Being messed around yes but that is normal. Every big power does so. You think US doesnt? They influence my home country all the time. It is a big power thingy. I do not see people pissed about it except Ukraine. I wish it did not happen in general but that is how the world is. To be frank, what made Ukraine anti Russia is the appeal of the west and its wealth. It is very tempting to start looking westward when you see how rich it is compared to Russia. 

On 28/05/2024 at 1:51 PM, BlueOak said:

Russia has never stopped doing this or evolved into a more stable or harmonious neighbor

Yes, they happen to push their shit on others.

On 28/05/2024 at 1:51 PM, BlueOak said:

Ukrainians got on just fine till Russia stirred up trouble with its Donbas militias. Almost everyone knew the Russian language; it wasn't two radically different cultures; there were a lot of EX-Soviet similarities. Now, there is hatred, which will exist for a few generations. I couldn't comment if the west and the east were specifically different to be in or around; I mean, the north and the south of England are somewhat different, which brings a bit of tension, primarily done in good humor. I hear it's the same in Italy; some of that is normal across different geography and local customs.

The hatred now from the war is normal.

But why didnt Ukraine let those regions become independent? It was at first the goal to make them indepndent republics. They themselves wanted to. Or am i missing something?

Just to be clear. I do not like Russia nor their government. To me all the stolen territory should go back to Ukraine Russian leaders charged for war crimes and the whole government replaced with a liberal democracy.

I just dont think they are much worse than the US from a foreign policy POV. So in terms of invading, bombing, toppling government, destablizing and pure selfishness. 

US has invaded and destroyed more countries than Russia has to be frank.

The only thing US has better than Russia, is how they treat their own citizens which is miles apart from Russia.

But in terms of pure foreign policy, to me it is basically trash vs garbage.

Even if Russia magically became a democracy like the US is, I would not think things would improve considering how bad US foreign policy is (and they are a democracy)

EU policy I like much more, especially those of small countries like Scandinavian, Belgium, Ireland.

Edited June 3 by Karmadhi

[Twentyfirst]

Haha you still think this is about Ukraine???? HAHAHA

Ya'll will literally believe anything lmao 

[BlueOak]

On 6/3/2024 at 10:00 AM, Karmadhi said:

Yes, but I was refering to their attitude before 2014. There was tons of hate. 

Yanakovic was democratically elected. Being messed around yes but that is normal. Every big power does so. You think US doesnt? They influence my home country all the time. It is a big power thingy. I do not see people pissed about it except Ukraine. I wish it did not happen in general but that is how the world is. To be frank, what made Ukraine anti Russia is the appeal of the west and its wealth. It is very tempting to start looking westward when you see how rich it is compared to Russia. 

Yes, they happen to push their shit on others.

The hatred now from the war is normal.

But why didnt Ukraine let those regions become independent? It was at first the goal to make them indepndent republics. They themselves wanted to. Or am i missing something?

Just to be clear. I do not like Russia nor their government. To me all the stolen territory should go back to Ukraine Russian leaders charged for war crimes and the whole government replaced with a liberal democracy.

I just dont think they are much worse than the US from a foreign policy POV. So in terms of invading, bombing, toppling government, destablizing and pure selfishness. 

US has invaded and destroyed more countries than Russia has to be frank.

The only thing US has better than Russia, is how they treat their own citizens which is miles apart from Russia.

But in terms of pure foreign policy, to me it is basically trash vs garbage.

Even if Russia magically became a democracy like the US is, I would not think things would improve considering how bad US foreign policy is (and they are a democracy)

EU policy I like much more, especially those of small countries like Scandinavian, Belgium, Ireland.

There was Russian suppression and violent intimidation, which led to the uprising, but you'll have to give me specific instances to investigate before that. As far as I have been told there wasn't hatred, but the region generally dislikes Russian's meddling in their elections and the constant posturing or projection of fear Russia tries - which is understandable, nobody would like it.

Generally, democracies want stable democracies. Yes, they work towards that goal. You don't see people annoyed? Georgia comes to mind, as does Chechnya and, to a certain extent, Belarus. It's a matter of how much meddling goes on and how open it is. Are you saying people like others messing around in their elections, or are okay with it? See America's reaction to Israel and Saudi Arabia openly doing so.

They didn't let them become independent because those regions were part of Ukraine. They were fine until Russia's militia started working in them, mostly the militias were manned by Russians in the beginning. All done because Ukraine's proxy government was overthrown as an excuse for war.

The US has invaded to topple dictators in several countries within the Russian sphere of influence. That's what great powers do, and it's what Russia is trying to do here. Making a case for the equivalency doesn't change anything or make it better.

Why are you so focused on making a moral case against the US again? This is a European war. I understand to keep their moral convictions, people must see someone else doing something wrong and say okay, they are bad, so I'll use that to make a point. It falls apart, though, because it's not US troops there, not US land, and the US is more reluctant than the people closer to it. -  I don't make a case for morality as the center of a point, or rarely any part of what I say unless I'm being lazy. It's not very helpful because it's a cyclical my values vs your values argument.

Even in the absolute best-case scenario, if I give you that, EU policy is going to change if they have to double their military size for a large border with Russia. People don't pay all that money into their military and not use it; Sadhguru makes that point quite well; the way to peace is to defang the warmakers. That won't happen in a large border with a belligerent neighbor. Someone painting a token government in Ukraine and letting Putin call the shots like Belarus isn't enough - Belarus's posturing and weak government is somewhat likely to get a coup against it for the proliferation of nuclear weapons and threats to use them; that's the sort of threat that won't be ignored.

Edited June 6 by BlueOak

[BlueOak]

Good update as always. 

 

@Twentyfirst

It's about many things, mostly summed up by two spheres of influence pushing against each other, like most wars between nations that are not due to a civil breakdown.

Edited June 6 by BlueOak

[Twentyfirst]

4 hours ago, BlueOak said:

Good update as always. 

 

@Twentyfirst

It's about many things, mostly summed up by two spheres of influence pushing against each other, like most wars between nations that are not due to a civil breakdown.

Sure it is a factor but Ukraine is the least important factor of the Ukraine war it seems

[Karmadhi]

23 hours ago, BlueOak said:

There was Russian suppression and violent intimidation, which led to the uprising, but you'll have to give me specific instances to investigate before that. As far as I have been told there wasn't hatred, but the region generally dislikes Russian's meddling in their elections and the constant posturing or projection of fear Russia tries - which is understandable, nobody would like it.

Western Ukraine has always been anti Russian. Part of it is the brutal Stalin famine which I totally understand. It killed millions. But the Nazis later on killed even more and for some reason only the hatred for Russia stayed. 

23 hours ago, BlueOak said:

Russian's meddling in their elections and the constant posturing or projection of fear Russia tries - which is understandable, nobody would like it.

Point is that great powers menddle in the elections of small countries. Yet only Ukraine makes a big deal out of it. This stems from anti Russian sentiment. Perhaps the Soviet era was bad to Ukraine even after Stalin. I do not know.

23 hours ago, BlueOak said:

They didn't let them become independent because those regions were part of Ukraine. They were fine until Russia's militia started working in them, mostly the militias were manned by Russians in the beginning. All done because Ukraine's proxy government was overthrown as an excuse for war.

I do not have enough information. All I know is that there were issues and most of them are Russians. If they want to be part of Russia, it is totally understandable. Perhaps they do not want to be part of Russia anymore and they see themselves as Ukranian. In that case, sure. It is a tricky topic because different people there will say different things. Ideally a clean referendum would have been nice to decide where the region should stay. 

23 hours ago, BlueOak said:

This is a European war

It is not when most of the aid comes from the US. US is much involved here. Might as well call Vietnam an Asian war. Now Ukraine is striking Russia with US weapons. 

23 hours ago, BlueOak said:

Someone painting a token government in Ukraine and letting Putin call the shots like Belarus isn't enough

Thing is we need to know for sure if the Ukranian government post 2014 was or was not a Western puppet government. A lot say that CIA was involved in the Maidan revolution. I have read all sorts of stuff. Personally I do not know. But for sure the West influences Ukranian foreign policy a lot. Probably as much as Russia influences Belarus or Georgia foreign policy. Or close to it.

You have partisanship from all sides. Some blame the West for this war, some blame Putin. Some blame both. There is a lot of conflicting arguments and views, it is hard to believe for sure anything.

Normally I would just believe the side that is more honest but issue is that I do not see either the US nor Russia as honest parties. US has showed on the Gaza war how much they are willing to lie. Russia lies a ton too. So we have 2 liars telling us two different versions and you need now to decide the truth. It is hard. I tend to listen to both sides but I have little strong opinions on this matter. Even social media does not help. Plenty telling Zelensky in comments to stop the war, then other comments saying to keep fighting. 

The only things I can say for sure is that the invasion is totally wrong and tons of war crimes happened in Ukraine which were unnecessary. 

Edited June 7 by Karmadhi

[BlueOak]

1 hour ago, Karmadhi said:

Western Ukraine has always been anti Russian. Part of it is the brutal Stalin famine which I totally understand. It killed millions. But the Nazis later on killed even more and for some reason only the hatred for Russia stayed. 

Point is that great powers menddle in the elections of small countries. Yet only Ukraine makes a big deal out of it. This stems from anti Russian sentiment. Perhaps the Soviet era was bad to Ukraine even after Stalin. I do not know.

I do not have enough information. All I know is that there were issues and most of them are Russians. If they want to be part of Russia, it is totally understandable. Perhaps they do not want to be part of Russia anymore and they see themselves as Ukranian. In that case, sure. It is a tricky topic because different people there will say different things. Ideally a clean referendum would have been nice to decide where the region should stay. 

It is not when most of the aid comes from the US. US is much involved here. Might as well call Vietnam an Asian war. Now Ukraine is striking Russia with US weapons. 

Thing is we need to know for sure if the Ukranian government post 2014 was or was not a Western puppet government. A lot say that CIA was involved in the Maidan revolution. I have read all sorts of stuff. Personally I do not know. But for sure the West influences Ukranian foreign policy a lot. Probably as much as Russia influences Belarus or Georgia foreign policy. Or close to it.

@Karmadhi

All countries make a big deal about meddling in their elections or government when it doesn't align with their current aims. This is very true when someone tries to stop a democracy from forming, for example, or alter a nation towards a conflict they aren't interested in fighting. Other examples might be corruption or the theft of secrets and technology.

Yes, the famine left lingering anger, and I would agree with that. On Russian hatred pre-2014: Please provide clips of this or articles from before 2014. If you are finding it difficult to search for them, give me some search terms for incidents, and I'll do a bit for you. I am good at locating data. I am assuming at this point you've listened to a rumor, not an actual demonstrable fact. This is okay; I am only going by Ukrainian reporters who talk about the time before the war being relatively peaceful, that there wasn't a language barrier because almost everyone spoke Russian from ex-Soviet families or schools.

'They wanted to be part of Russia.'  Now, you are referring to the sham elections carried out at gunpoint in the middle of a war, after torture, deportations, and death?  Prior to this turmoil, everything was peaceful. Let's be very blunt: This is the 8th war to rebuild Russian control and influence over former USSR territories, and it is an effort of democratic forces to create a democracy in Ukraine. That's it, that's the opposing goals. The people don't matter; asking the average person for their honest opinions on life would boil down to living safely, comfortably, and in peace. That would be a universal constant the world over. It's the leaders that have ambitions, things to lose or gain, and driving forces beyond that to shape these countries for better or worse.

Yes, the US, China, Iran, BRICS, and NATO are indirectly involved.

This is still a European war. It's being conducted in Europe in a move for Russia to strengthen its position in Europe and for the European powers to resist their expansion. It's a tale as old as the continent is, and it's been done many times before. It was a clever trick for awhile to make it about the US vs Russia in people's minds, but this is European land. The US is the biggest guarantor of Europe because it is their leading trading partner. As a result, Europe provides a large amount of wealth to the US, and the US is a large arms dealer.

Whatever major conflict comes about, the US and Russia will be giving arms to someone involved.

You sum up the problem with neutrality next: nobody remains neutral on a border between two major powers. Ukraine will either be under Russian influence or the EU's.

Edited June 7 by BlueOak

[Karmadhi]

On 6/7/2024 at 5:07 PM, BlueOak said:

On Russian hatred pre-2014: Please provide clips of this or articles from before 2014. If you are finding it difficult to search for them, give me some search terms for incidents, and I'll do a bit for you. I am good at locating data. I am assuming at this point you've listened to a rumor, not an actual demonstrable fact. This is okay; I am only going by Ukrainian reporters who talk about the time before the war being relatively peaceful, that there wasn't a language barrier because almost everyone spoke Russian from ex-Soviet families or schoo

I have friends from Ukraine and they told me that in general Western Ukraine never liked Russia much. Eastern Ukraine before the war was more chill about them. To be honest, I can understand the sentiment. I am just surprised it is only towards Russia. My guess would be because Ukraine stayed with Russia during USSR. 

I am only refering before 2014. Now I would assume the entire Ukraine hates Russia and that is normal.

On 6/7/2024 at 5:07 PM, BlueOak said:

Now, you are referring to the sham elections carried out at gunpoint in the middle of a war, after torture, deportations, and death? 

No no. I was saying they should have done a referendum before this war started. Ideally in 2014. Before all the fighting. An honest referendum observed by the UN and see how people felt. Just like they did in Scotland. Depending on the results they would either stay in Ukraine or join Russia. Instead a war started in 2014. That was wrong. I do not expect now those regions to be much pro Russia considering the shit Russia did there.

On 6/7/2024 at 5:07 PM, BlueOak said:

This is still a European war. It's being conducted in Europe in a move for Russia to strengthen its position in Europe and for the European powers to resist their expansion. It's a tale as old as the continent is, and it's been done many times before. It was a clever trick for awhile to make it about the US vs Russia in people's minds, but this is European land. The US is the biggest guarantor of Europe because it is their leading trading partner. As a result, Europe provides a large amount of wealth to the US, and the US is a large arms dealer.

If it is such an European war how come Europe is barely providing weapons to Ukraine and US is the main provider? USA is much involved in it. It will appear like a US issue when the news are about "US decided or did not decide to give aid to Ukraine, without US aid Ukraine will loose etc etc". It paints a picture that basically the US decides the fate of Ukraine.

Europe is not doing enough military wise. They should be the main weapon provider to Ukranine.

 

 

Edited June 8 by Karmadhi

[Karmadhi]

On 6/7/2024 at 5:07 PM, BlueOak said:

This is the 8th war to rebuild Russian control and influence over former USSR territories,

I think their goal is to basically make all ex USSR states, Russian puppet states or at least friendly to Russia.

That is wrong but US does the same. 

Where I draw the line is when you start invading countries and taking land from them and deporting people. That is totally unacceptable. Which is why I am critical of this war. I want it to end mostly for humanitarian reasons.

Mendling in elections, although wrong, is done by everyone so to me it is nothing new.

 

Edited June 8 by Karmadhi

[BlueOak]

@Karmadhi

Pre 2014, In regards Ukraine and Russia all I can say is I was told the opposite if we are talking on a personal level, between people. There was not the level of hatred you are telling me there was.  A vote before this would have been preferably yes from our perspective but Putin would have never respected any of Ukraine leaving his control, certainly not in those border regions.

Why do the EU not donate as much as the US? They are, but also GDP
https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/

As a % of their GDP's some countries are giving more than the US is. On top of that, as you are aware though, Europe is still remilitarizing, and does not have the same military industrial complex that the US does. Its barely a few % of America's military budget, as opposed to a much large chunk of the EU's,

In raw numbers if we added all of Europe together, the number is not as dissimilar as you are making out (one graph has it being more).
https://www.statista.com/chart/28489/ukrainian-military-humanitarian-and-financial-aid-donors/
https://www.statista.com/chart/27278/military-aid-to-ukraine-by-country/

You keep coming back to the US does X. I really couldn't care less, when they were doing it I felt exactly the same. The moral equivalency as a reason to do something is what allows it to continue. It tries to excuse something going on.

You wanting the war to end for humanitarian reasons is understandable, if it was going to end here i'd be with you. It won't until the will or capability of Russia to expand aggressively is stopped. They have a long pattern of fighting conflicts to expand their influence, and there is little indication that they have changed their mind:
 

Their state TV says this nonesense all the time, and have done for decades in one form or another.

Edited June 10 by BlueOak

[BlueOak]

Update: Russian air defense pushed out of Crimea under sustained attack.

[Gennadiy1981]

Guys don't get fooled, USA and some European countries are not helping Ukraine out of good heart, there is always a benefit to some extent. I was listening to one podcast dont remember the name of the host, but he made a very good point. See when Soviet Union was active, it was spending half of its GDP for military and stock up a lot of artillery, now the West through Ukraine making the Russia (who inherited all the military arsenal) to kinda use it all up, soon they will run out of it. I mean its a smart strategy, they are suing Ukraine as a way to unload Russia. I never believe other countries have love for others, its always some kind of benefit. And remember its not what the news agency will say, the State Department has their plans which are not disclosed to the public and things may be totally different what they appear. I was in one organization long time back and one member was a former CIA employee, of course he barely spoke about his job, but he told me that whatever State Department is doing, they are not releasing anything to the public, indeed the press may even get the opposite of what is really happening. He told me appearances are totally deceiving.

[Hatfort]

Russia has offered another peace deal, asks Kyev the withdraw of their troops from the four regions that now claim as its own, Donetsk, Luhanks, Zaporizhia, and Kherson. Also Crimea, I guess, Ukraine still claims it.

Zelensky and NATO are already rejecting it.

Putin also adverts that if not accepted, the cost will increase next time. Likely Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Odessa and perhaps Dnipropetrovsk.

At the beginning, the demands were just for Luhanks and Donetsk to have an auto-determination referendum, plus the acceptance of Crimea as Russian, and NATO to stay out of Ukraine. I said it, that was a good offer at the time. This is also a good offer right now, Ukraine keeps access to the sea and 80% of its previous territory. Both sides win that no more men die and Russia gets quite more land than before for them of the most Russian-sentiment regions of Ukraine. Also, the nuclear war escalation risk stops.

This may be interpreted as a weak sign of Putin and Russia. It's not, they will continue the war if it's not accepted and they are going to win in the medium term. The West doesn't know the meaning of diplomacy, they are so used to putting their terms on the table to be accepted by the rest of the world.

Edited June 15 by Hatfort

[zazen]

@Hatfort You always provide a good synopsis of the situation even on the Gaza side.

Every time Putin extends an olive branch, our benevolent leaders are quick to torch it. Doing this during a peace summit in Switzerland just exposes the hypocrisy - maybe Putin timed this purposely to create the contrast. Or maybe he just thought their in the mood for peace as their literally doing a summit on it dedicated to Ukraine.

They’re rejecting peace to feed the beast of power and profits. The very same talking heads who lecture us about freedom and democracy are suddenly mute when it comes to Ukraine literally dragging its citizens kicking and screaming to the front lines. The con in con-scription is you die for a script written by those who don’t. “Bodily autonomy" flies out the window when there's a war to be fought.

The audacity of war cheerleaders debating whether we should support this madness. Just sacrificing Ukrainian lives on the altar of geopolitical power games and democracy is a moral catastrophe dressed up in yellow and blue. As a talking head in the West said on live TV - the Ukrainian war is a cheap way to weaken Russia with Ukrainian lives in the meat grinder instead of their own citizens from Britain, France, Germany or the US.