Should we still be backing Ukraine?

[Bobby_2021]

6 minutes ago, BlueOak said:

Poland asks again for nukes: https://apnews.com/article/poland-nuclear-weapons-nato-russia-ukraine-d92c508d6ff53683a25f1bc62d256f86
If you can for a second, try to put aside your (can I say block or collective) bias and understand Polish concerns, especially with Belarus getting nukes, then you can see the war in more focus and the potential fallout from it.

My dude, Poland is behaving exactly like Washington wants. 

The expansion of NATO was in point to see the weapons made in US to Europe. Buying these weapons is the way to get into NATO after which you buy even more weapons.

The military industrial complex, wants to sell weapons. That means NATO has to expand. That means Russia will feel a threat. That means Russia will attack.

This is happening according to the policy decisions of the Clinton Administration back in the 90s. 

That's called a policy. Making the buy US made weapons is the goal. Also the same policy that is threatening European security right now.

[BlueOak]

9 minutes ago, Bobby_2021 said:

My dude, Poland is behaving exactly like Washington wants. 

The expansion of NATO was in point to see the weapons made in US to Europe. Buying these weapons is the way to get into NATO after which you buy even more weapons.

The military industrial complex, wants to sell weapons. That means NATO has to expand. That means Russia will feel a threat. That means Russia will attack.

This is happening according to the policy decisions of the Clinton Administration back in the 90s. 

That's called a policy. Making the buy US made weapons is the goal. Also the same policy that is threatening European security right now.

America was reluctant to give Ukraine any more aid. It was held up for months. vs Eastern Europe has had centuries of conflict with Russia, is rearming, and talking about sending troops?

Do you see how you are ignoring the reality of what is occurring, and why it's occurring? European powers fighting wars in Europe have always met other European powers stopping them. It's a miracle that it hasn't happened so far, and it's only the case because America is giving money to Ukraine to fight it themselves. (Also because you are right, people in Europe got complacent)

Do America, Russia, and any other arms producers like selling guns? YES! Do they give nukes to countries? No! America hates nuclear proliferation, as most countries do. We are talking about millions of people, and I am trying to give a collective view here, covering their leadership in the same statement.

Edited April 23 by BlueOak

[Bobby_2021]

This video is textbook propaganda and speculation. Simple inciting fear with nothing to back it with any reason whatsoever.

It ignores why Russia launched the Invasion in the first place.

It's doesn't explain why would Russia want to trigger further invasion.

Russia has nothing to gain from conquering the baltic states or even Ukraine as a whole for that matter.

He didn't even wanted to invade Ukraine. It's a security threat he responded to and and that's about it.

[Bobby_2021]

47 minutes ago, BlueOak said:

America was reluctant to give Ukraine any more aid. It was held up for months. vs Eastern Europe has had centuries of conflict with Russia, is rearming, and talking about sending troops?

Well it's Europe's war. Why would Europe suck up to America to deal with its own shit? Because Europe has no independent standing without US.

Your reliance on US is making it obvious. Europe is not doing shit to counter Putin. Barely riding their big daddy's back.

[BlueOak]

38 minutes ago, Bobby_2021 said:

This video is textbook propaganda and speculation. Simple inciting fear with nothing to back it with any reason whatsoever.

I've backed it up with many examples of why these wars were fought. You don't agree with them, but ignoring that others do is your main flaw. I can acknowledge Russia's concerns, even if I don't agree with them, you cannot do the opposite. I will repeat, for the 1000th time now, this region has been engaged in hostilities for centuries. We had a period of peace, thanks entirely to Europe coming together with America and making peace here. It's not naturally like that otherwise.

36 minutes ago, Bobby_2021 said:

Well it's Europe's war. Why would Europe suck up to America to deal with its own shit? Because Europe has no independent standing without US.

Your reliance on US is making it obvious. Europe is not doing shit to counter Putin. Barely riding their big daddy's back.

You are advocating for WW3. That is the alternative. We cannot match the US military budget at present, though that is being changed it is a gradual process. The support would be us getting directly involved, and settling things in Europe as we used to, with long, bloody wars.

Think what countries like UK, France, Germany, and Poland mobilizing troops and sending them into Ukraine would mean. I doubt we'd stop at Ukraine either if an actual war is declared, we'd have to take out Russia's capacity to fight the war, which is their industry, ports, and infrastructure connections.

[Bobby_2021]

15 minutes ago, BlueOak said:

I've backed it up with many examples of why these wars were fought

Those wars have proven to Putin that it's pain in the ass to manage these conquered territories.

Just like it will be a pain in the ass to manage these conquered Ukrainian territories. 

Those wars may have been fought with expansionist ambitious, but not so much the war in Ukraine.

19 minutes ago, BlueOak said:

We had a period of peace, thanks entirely to Europe coming together with America and making peace here. It's not naturally like that otherwise.

That era of peace was under the mutual Trust of not expanding NATO eastwards. The moment they broke the trust, would lead to a chain of events resulting in the Ukraine war.

21 minutes ago, BlueOak said:

Think what countries like UK, France, Germany, and Poland mobilizing troops and sending them into Ukraine would mean

Once they arrive back in boxes, then it would lead to internal collapse of NATO.

Putin does not want a war. But Eruopean countries leaders acting like he does, may lead to a war.

I say European leaders. Not the European populace.

European populace is not made for war. Look at the protests over killing arabs in Gaza. And you think they are going to tolerate their husbands and sons getting killed like that?

It's a joke that you think it's a regional power.

25 minutes ago, BlueOak said:

We cannot match the US military budget at present, though that is being changed it is a gradual process. T

Looooool. Cute that you even think you can match the US military.

You don't have to. Just suck up to US anytime you end up in a crisis. That crisis will be engineered by the US so don't worry.

Just like Israel.

I don't blame the EU states. EU doesn't want war and they act like it. They spend less than 2% of GDP on military. It's the US that gets them in trouble by their expansionist ambitions.

[Karmadhi]

What if we threaten Russia to nuke their forces if they move in NATO and do not intervene if non NATO countries get attacked (just give them aid).

Russia is not stupid to attack NATO.

I understand the legal concerns of them annexing other countries but it is not worth risk WW3 imo.

If Russia moves in on NATO then we can easily use tactical nukes against their forces (not cities). 

It should cripple them harshly.

Issue is when they they attack countries without nuclear weapons but luckily NATO has them and in the thousands.

The idea of NATO troops dying to defend a non NATO country is insane to me. What is the point of NATO then if everyone can be protected? Aid is one thing but putting troops is basically heavy provocation.

To me that should only be done for NATO members.

@BlueOak Thoughts?

Edited April 23 by Karmadhi

[BlueOak]

29 minutes ago, Bobby_2021 said:

Those wars have proven to Putin that it's pain in the ass to manage these conquered territories.

Just like it will be a pain in the ass to manage these conquered Ukrainian territories. 

Those wars may have been fought with expansionist ambitious, but not so much the war in Ukraine.

That era of peace was under the mutual Trust of not expanding NATO eastwards. The moment they broke the trust, would lead to a chain of events resulting in the Ukraine war.

Once they arrive back in boxes, then it would lead to internal collapse of NATO.

Putin does not want a war. But Eruopean countries leaders acting like he does, may lead to a war.

I say European leaders. Not the European populace.

European populace is not made for war. Look at the protests over killing arabs in Gaza. And you think they are going to tolerate their husbands and sons getting killed like that?

It's a joke that you think it's a regional power.

Looooool. Cute that you even think you can match the US military.

You don't have to. Just suck up to US anytime you end up in a crisis. That crisis will be engineered by the US so don't worry.

Just like Israel.

I don't blame the EU states. EU doesn't want war and they act like it. They spend less than 2% of GDP on military. It's the US that gets them in trouble by their expansionist ambitions.

I agree Putin has adjusted his calculations, in time and effort, not ambition or the underlying reasons such as: his population crisis, needing a shorter border, or wanting the gas connections/supplies into Europe; hindering Turkey's growth in the Black Sea region, and Putin's imperialistic ego, or zealous fascist support requiring war. Because it hasn't stopped Putin from fighting these wars, doubling down, expanding, or mentioning Moldova, Poland, and the Baltics in his plans.

Russia cultivates fear and uses it as a weapon. So don't be surprised when its successful.

European states serious about the Russian threat are moving to a 3% budget. With some considering 4%.

The Era of peace in Europe came about because of the 2nd World War devastation and death toll, with treaties such as NATO that said we wouldn't fight each other again. Then America became the guarantor of democracy so we didn't need to fight anymore, it was a period of stability and peace for us. Because Russia is not in NATO, we are fighting in Europe again, if they were, we would not be fighting them.

If people come back in boxes, it initially leads to anger, hatred, and war. Rarely it leads to a desire for peace, but only when enough suffering is experienced.

Yes, Europe, and certainly all NATO allies combined, could match the US military if they dedicated enough of their GDP. Then they'd be more proactive in using it to further their aims.  Then you'd say oh, those aggressive Europeans! People don't spend all that effort, money, political, institutional, and cultural capital on something to receive nothing back.

Russia is a regional power. All the numbers indicate it. Elevating it above that is why they are overreaching and continue to do so.

Edited April 23 by BlueOak

[BlueOak]

2 minutes ago, Karmadhi said:

What if we threaten Russia to nuke their forces if they move in NATO and do not intervene if non NATO countries get attacked (just give them aid).

Russia is not stupid to attack NATO.

I understand the legal concerns of them annexing other countries but it is not worth risk WW3 imo.

If Russia moves in on NATO then we can easily use tactical nukes against their forces (not cities). 

It should cripple them harshly.

Issue is when they they attack countries without nuclear weapons but luckily NATO has them and in the thousands.

The video agreed with me, that NATO might not launch nukes to defend one country. I think it's probable. Think of the calculation: do we end the planet, or send in conventional forces? Even more likely with Trump in office, and his desire to pull out of NATO.

Slovakia even said they would not send troops to defend another NATO country under attack, and Bulgaria is unlikely to. There will be countries that simply do not, especially without American support. You overestimate a NATO response to defend Poland or the Baltics. Especially more nationalist governments. Thankfully these eastern regions, and some others are preparing themselves for this pattern of events.

[Karmadhi]

9 minutes ago, BlueOak said:

The video agreed with me, that NATO might not launch nukes to defend one country. I think it's probable. Think of the calculation: do we end the planet, or send in conventional forces? Even more likely with Trump in office, and his desire to pull out of NATO.

Slovakia even said they would not send troops to defend another NATO country under attack, and Bulgaria is unlikely to. There will be countries that simply do not, especially without American support. You overestimate a NATO response to defend Poland or the Baltics. Especially more nationalist governments. Thankfully these eastern regions, and some others are preparing themselves for this pattern of events.

So why Russia would? You seem to make Putin seem like a crazy guy.

Putin is very smart and calculating, he will not do anything that will end the planet.

All Europe has to do is show strong will and he will back off.

It is irrelevant what Bulgaria or Slovakia want. They are not the ones with Nukes or strong military. UK for example has a strong army and nuclear weapons. You said yourself they have a strong will to fight. That is what matters. Not weak countries. Poland is ready to fight too. Not to mention France.

If Putin takes Ukraine and Moldova, I doubt he will invade any more in Europe.

Also considering it will take Russia years to military recover and prepare and he is already quite old.

We can give those non Nato members aid for sure, but sending troops is risking a war that can be avoided.

I would rather play it safe.

But that is just my opinion, I am not an expert.

Edited April 23 by Karmadhi

[Bobby_2021]

4 minutes ago, Karmadhi said:

All Europe has to do is show strong will and he will back off

All that Europe/US has to do is to NOT threaten the internal stability & peace of mother Russia. 

This war has been disastrous for Russia and still is. He is enduring that since he had no choice. He will be forced to take extreme measures to ensure security and peace. Don't drive them to that extreme. Logic has no significance when your security is threatened. It's not too much to ask for.

[BlueOak]

23 minutes ago, Karmadhi said:

So why Russia would? You seem to make Putin seem like a crazy guy which is a bias of yours.

Putin is very smart and calculating, he will not do anything that will end the planet.

All Europe has to do is show strong will and he will back off.

If he takes Ukraine and Moldova, I doubt he will invade any more in Europe.

Also considering it will take Russia years to military recover and prepare and he is already quite old.

 

People won't sit back and play the game of what if against an aggressive dictator. The longer it takes Russia to recover from these wars, the better it is for the rest of Europe. That's precisely why we are trying to get aid to Ukraine. People can put moral things on top of it to make themselves feel better, but everything humanity does is self-serving.

Putin isn't that smart, he's got some intelligence, sure, but he hamstrings himself by killing anyone who doesn't say yes to him. I argue with you in this thread but I don't for one second think I am more intelligent without your input. Do you understand? If I were in power, I'd want you and Bobby in my ear checking my bias, to come to a better decision. 

I will repeat: This is the 8th war to rebuild or control former USSR territories. Moldova is an almost guaranteed 9th. The Baltics would be a calculation, is NATO going to respond with enough force to stop me? Already knowing that the Suwałki Gap gap could not be held, war games showed that even with American assistance, Russia would cut off and siege the Baltics, overrunning them (let alone without America).

This is why those countries are creating so many bunkers to slow the Russians down, and Poland is restoring a large armored core. - They believe there is a chance they will be invaded as it has happened so many times before. Germany and the UK are moving troops to the region because they believe the threat is real. Everyone recognizes Trump wants to pull out of NATO, so the Europeans are moving to fill the gap and push back against Russia.

There are many reasons for a Russian invasion that I keep talking about, the Russian population crisis, needing a shorter border, reforming what Putin saw as the greatest Russian loss (the USSR territories), the one China, and one Russia principal that is getting all the Russians around the world into one nation. Russia is led by Putin, but he still must satisfy the hatred of the 'other' in Russian people. An ideology that he's cultivated to keep himself in power, and the strong nationalist population core that all dictators require to stay in power. Russia is fascist and it requires perpetual war to sustain that ideology. Distracting people from economic misfortune is often a reason people go to war. - Then there are trade routes, pushing influence outward, connecting to Kaliningrad, getting access to ports, etc.

Europe will show its Europe, with 44 different voices wanting 44 different things. It will always show this. Expansionist authoritarian powers are seeking to test what they can take from that.

Edited April 23 by BlueOak

[Bobby_2021]

23 minutes ago, Karmadhi said:

If Putin takes Ukraine and Moldova, I doubt he will invade any more in Europe.

Putin isn't even interested in talking the whole of Ukraine, let alone Moldova.

What is he supposed to do with it?

Seriously. 

It's a pain in the ass to manage this war torn hell. 

This is the caricature portrayal of Putin which is the work of western propagandists. It's cartoonish to say the most powerful man in the world is desperate for a little piece of land lmao.

In the modern world, wars are not profitable to either side. Especially for Russia, who is not drowing in cash. 

He was forced into invasion to address the security threat to his nation.

Edited April 23 by Bobby_2021

[BlueOak]

So you all understand, this is a common theme here in Europe to think about, not a one-off video I happened upon.

I do not vouch for the quality of any of these compared to the previous video, which I considered a reasonable quality. These are to demonstrate that the war is being discussed and planned for if it happens.

 

 

Edited April 23 by BlueOak

[Karmadhi]

@BlueOak @Bobby_2021 One question you need to answer is this; "If NATO made it clear that they WILL NOT accept Ukraine and Ukraine kept a neutral government, a non anti Russian one, would have Russia still invaded Ukraine"?

That is the core question here.

If they actually want Ukraine and all the NATO expansion is an alibi, the answer is yes. They would have invaded Ukraine anyway because it is not about NATO but it is about getting that land into Russian territory.

If the answer is no, so we would not have had a war. Then the war is about NATO expansion and Ukraine being a pro Western country, opposite of a pro Russian one.

So what do you two think?

Lets get to the core here.

[Husseinisdoingfine]

On the Spiral Dynamics integral, what color is Ukraine? What about Russia?

[Bobby_2021]

2 hours ago, Karmadhi said:

"If NATO made it clear that they WILL NOT accept Ukraine and Ukraine kept a neutral government, a non anti Russian one, would have Russia still invaded Ukraine"?

1. NATO DID NOT make it clear at all that Ukraine won't be joining NATO.

They had an "open door" policy.

There were plenty of talks and negotiations taking place in Moscow and US both in person and via calls. NATO kept Ukrainian membership open and was working towards it.

Read the press release from the official US govt.

https://www.state.gov/secretary-antony-j-blinken-at-a-press-availability-13/

https://www.state.gov/u-s-ukraine-charter-on-strategic-partnership/

Take note of the dates.

All of this were happening in a span of 4 months before the Invasion.

The "Ukraine wouldn't be joining NATO anyway" claims are bogus. You can make claims that Ukraine weren't really going to join NATO. But NATO membership was a real possibility.

2. Neutral Ukraine is unrealistic. 

Either it will be pro Russian or pro American. A candidate promising neutrality will not get elected. Just being realistic here.

For the sake of argument, yes, Putin would have been okay with a neutral Ukraine.  A neutral Ukraine is not a security threat to Russia. Hence no Invasion in this case.

@Karmadhi

Let me know if there is some ambiguity or a need for more clarification in my claims. 

It's childish to not see the security concerns that Russia have despite the issue being so glaringly obvious.

What's even more childish is the claims that Putin wants to reclaim the former USSR and annex all of Europe.

If anyone has too much land already that they could manage, that would be Russia. Give me a break.

Edited April 23 by Bobby_2021

[BlueOak]

3 hours ago, Karmadhi said:

@BlueOak @Bobby_2021 One question you need to answer is this; "If NATO made it clear that they WILL NOT accept Ukraine and Ukraine kept a neutral government, a non anti Russian one, would have Russia still invaded Ukraine"?

That is the core question here.

If they actually want Ukraine and all the NATO expansion is an alibi, the answer is yes. They would have invaded Ukraine anyway because it is not about NATO but it is about getting that land into Russian territory.

If the answer is no, so we would not have had a war. Then the war is about NATO expansion and Ukraine being a pro Western country, opposite of a pro Russian one.

So what do you two think?

Lets get to the core here.

@Karmadhi

Right at the start, Ukraine offered neutrality to Russia, but they refused it.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-offers-neutrality-exchange-nato-style-security-guarantees-russia-talks-2022-03-29/

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/30/ukraine-offer-neutrality-meaning-constitution-russia-what-does-neutral-status-country-mean-how-would-it-work

If Russia gave up the land they've stolen, and Ukraine didn't join NATO, then there would be peace in your scenario. Ukraine can't join anyway while Russia occupies Crimea, several countries didn't want them in NATO before the war. Now it's different, they have more support. Russia (and I mean the people) will not give up the land so the point is mute now. It's about the expansion of a greater Russia. Putin has said that's his goal. He's fought 8 wars to do so and formed a breakaway republic in Moldova, ready for the 9th. 

People arguing that point are arguing against Putin's own words and his constant barrage of state TV material.  Estonia has a Russian population and is vulnerable to the same breakaway republic. The top video in the three I've just listed highlights the scenario those in Europe are worried about. People can disagree of course, but dismissing other countries' points of view because they don't agree with their own, is half of how all this mess started.

Edited April 23 by BlueOak

[BlueOak]

2 hours ago, Husseinisdoingfine said:

On the Spiral Dynamics integral, what color is Ukraine? What about Russia?

Overall, Russia seemed to range from blue to red, depending on the province.
Pre-war Ukraine seemed orange to blue; it was modernizing more toward joining the EU, but it had some distance to go. The EU mostly sits in orange, with some green and blue.

The churches were prominent in both, but democracy was starting up in Ukraine, and it was starting to receive investment.

It is hard to judge how awareness might drop collectively during the war, but we can say it is likely while survival or killing is the focus, and trauma builds within the collective psyche. People tell me there are sometimes breakthroughs in conflict, but my experience is that this is an exception rather than the norm. It's the same with people (because countries are people), sometimes they change, but mostly they don't.

[Chadders]

@Bobby_2021 If anything Russia’s aggression has united NATO countries. The NATO alliance has never been stronger. I forget the country. Think it’s Finland who recently joined 

Putin won’t win this war. No one will. At least we have stood up to him and demonstrated that Russia is not so mighty. That even a relatively small country like Ukraine with a tiny military force compared with Russia can actually fight back very effectively. The Russia people have no wish to fight. They don’t even know what they’re fighting for 

Edited April 23 by Chadders