Should we still be backing Ukraine?

[BlueOak]

4 hours ago, Bobby_2021 said:

What are they accomplishing with this?

We'll we've discussed the strategy to death. Hold Russia in Ukraine so they can't advance further until Putin is dead and his KGB stooges have grown old and passed on. Russia is crippling itself here, and China is buying it up. I know you don't agree with the analysis, so you can't agree with the strategy, and that's fine. 

Practically?
60% of Russia's USSR armor stockpiles are gone.
70-80% of its professional fighting force.

Its air and naval losses are mounting, things it cannot replace. When there is a mobile Patriot battery with ammunition again, most of Russia's remaining long-range bombers firing on civilian targets are going down. Just like they did before when one was mobile with ammunition. Another bomber was recently taken out, as was another ship; it's almost weekly for Russian ships these days.

Ukraine has put in for 500,000 more conscripted soldiers for the summer.

61 billion more dollars in aid buys a lot of things. It could buy a break in the Russian line because they've used much of their current manpower on repeated human wave attacks, at the minimum, it will buy holding the line against Russia.

It also buys European countries not getting directly involved with boots on the ground, this was looking more likely. If this maintains the status quo, with Russia stuck in a quagmire, and Europe not in a war that would bring us to WW3, then it's the biggest relief for millions.

Edited April 22 by BlueOak

[Karmadhi]

1 hour ago, BlueOak said:

We'll we've discussed the strategy to death. Hold Russia in Ukraine so they can't advance further until Putin is dead and his KGB stooges have grown old and passed on. Russia is crippling itself here, and China is buying it up. I know you don't agree with the analysis, so you can't agree with the strategy, and that's fine. 

Practically?
60% of Russia's USSR armor stockpiles are gone.
70-80% of its professional fighting force.

You are conveniently ignoring one very important detail.

Russia has 4 times the population of Ukraine, meaning it is much better at absorbing human looses.

From all the research I have done the ratio is around 50% more Russians killed, Ukraine needs a 400% ratio to even break even.

It is similar to WW2 eastern front. Nazis killed on average 2 times more Soviets soldiers than they lost soldiers but because of the population difference, they were over ran in the end. Even though the production up to 1944 was very high for Germany (mostly due to slave labor properly used by Albert Speer) what happened is that all the new planes, tanks etc had nobody to use them. 

Ukraine, even if they can hold 2-3 years more war, will be totally destroyed from a human capital point of view. 

They have lost like 50.000 young people or something that have fled Ukraine.

Russia has yet to do a proper mobilization. 

Meanwhile Ukraine snatches people from the street.

If they want to fight it is their right but "lets continue the war until Putin dies 5 years from now" is super selfish and basically you expect the Ukranian youth to do all the dying for you.

1 hour ago, BlueOak said:

61 billion more dollars in aid buys a lot of things. It could buy a break in the Russian line because they've used much of their current manpower on repeated human wave attacks, at the minimum, it will buy holding the line against Russia.

They tried in 2023 and it failed. Russian defenses were really good. What this aid will do is just allow them not to be pushed anymore but liberating territory is another matter. They managed to do it in 2022 because Russia was over extended (their whole invasion force was very small) and lack of proper defenses. Also their tactics have improved in time. In 2023 they tried and it failed with massive looses from Ukraine. And Ukraine already had like 50 billion military aid from USA. So I am not optimistic this will happen this time. Russia has seriously stepped up production and is also getting weapons from its allies. Europe production is falling flat on what is needed. 

However the aid will definetly allow Ukraine to fight without collapsing. But liberating the country seems not feasible to me. We agreed that defending is easier and attacking requires superior numbers which Ukraine seems to lack. 

 

What do you think?

Edited April 22 by Karmadhi

[Karmadhi]

On 20/04/2024 at 7:53 PM, BlueOak said:

You said any country next to Russia is its bitch, and any country next to America is the same. What about Europe? Is their influence not there? That was why I brought up not considering Europe when you wrote it. Is Ukraine not Europe's bitch too in this analogy?

Europe is definitely USA's bitch  

Look at how scared they are of Israel just because USA is strong ally with it.

If they had a truly independent foreign policy they would have cut out ties with Israel by now and called out their consistent war crimes. 

On 20/04/2024 at 7:53 PM, BlueOak said:

Putin is not a hard man to understand

He is more complex than "Putler" or "crazy dictator" as CNN or Piers Morgan portrays him.

I do not like him per say but he is complex character worthy of studying. Leo has sent some good videos on his blog for this.

On 20/04/2024 at 7:53 PM, BlueOak said:

More European countries are talking about sending troops to Ukraine, Estonia, France, the UK, etc, which is why I am happy to talk about Europe here, as it lets us understand and focus on what's going on. So again, thanks for that and the discussion. Its not the Americans who will suffer the consequences of the war, or ultimately choose to fight a European war if it happens. So it is important to focus on where it's occurring. 

Europeans are weak and lack resolve. All their money is useless without resolve. We saw it with France during WW2. They surrendered after 6 weeks even though they had a strong army. They preferred to give up Paris (the fucking capital), rather than risk it turning into a battleground. If they had fought like the Soviets did, perhaps WW2 would have ended much earlier (we can just speculate). 

Also, if the Soviets gave up as easily as France did, Axis would have won WW2. 

So resolve is super important and Europeans tend to lack it.

It is the result (imo) of decaying nationalism and comfortable lives. Wars require a degree of nationalism to be fought which is currently missing, especially in Western Europe.

Poland would be exception.

 

[Bobby_2021]

I know what they are doing.

But the west should stop using Ukrainian lives for their own interests. It's sadistic at this point.

They really want every last Ukranian dead and Ukraine turning into a shithole rump state.

Enough of this blood thirsty war. 

Russian military is stronger than ever. The sanctions has gotten Russia and China closer. 

America and it's love for wars. Smh.

[Bobby_2021]

Today is April 22. Putin said that he is open to negotiations from the West and Ukraine till May 21.

May 21st is when Zelensky's term will end as president of the Ukraine. Russia will not recognise Zelensky after exactly one month from now. So his life is in real danger after May 21st. There is still one month remaining.

Zelensky != Ukraine.

He is delusional from all the promises they gave him back in feb 2022. Reality is going to hit him hard.

Negotiations now.

If you have any consideration for the lives of Ukrainian men. 

[Bobby_2021]

33 minutes ago, Karmadhi said:

Europeans are weak and lack resolve

Fr.

NATO exists to provide military security to the European countries, in return for American getting to dictate their foreign policy.

Europe doesn't have an independent foreign policy. If there were something like that we would be talking about it. 

All we hear is American foreign policy because that is the only relevant things here.

If Europe had a military alliance on it's own independent of the US then things would have been a lot different. But they don't.

Instead they took the deal with the devil.

Edited April 22 by Bobby_2021

[BlueOak]

@Karmadhi

51 minutes ago, Karmadhi said:

Russia has 4 times the population of Ukraine, meaning it is much better at absorbing human looses.

From all the research I have done the ratio is around 50% more Russians killed, Ukraine needs a 400% ratio to even break even.

Ukraine, even if they can hold 2-3 years more war, will be totally destroyed from a human capital point of view. 

They have lost like 50.000 young people or something that have fled Ukraine.

Russia has yet to do a proper mobilization. 

Meanwhile Ukraine snatches people from the street.

If they want to fight it is their right but "lets continue the war until Putin dies 5 years from now" is super selfish and basically you expect the Ukranian youth to do all the dying for you.

They tried in 2023 and it failed. Russian defenses were really good. 

And Ukraine already had like 50 billion military aid from USA.

First off I'm not completely against sending Troops into Ukraine tomorrow. So let's get that right. I almost went myself at the start of this war. If you think the better option is NATO vs BRICS? If not don't use the line I or we want anyone to die for me/us. It is a horrible choice to do it this way, but it stops the nukes from flying and keeps Russia from advancing further.

Population numbers at this stage are not reliable for either country. At the start of this before Ukraine's and Russia's exodus, it was about 3.5 times the population, and the casualties are at least at that ratio. Ukraine, with aid, can hold indefinitely. When Ukraine is not being outshot 10 to 1 due to a lack of shells, and has the coming airpower, that casualty rate is going to flip even further on the Russians. 

On the failed offensive. It's interesting that so many people, giving me the Russian talking points, think one battle decides the war, but it doesn't. It didn't when Ukraine had victories, and it didn't when Russia had victories. Wars are long things, and they usually last several years up to decades. Sure, Ukraine had money in the past, they might get another 300 billion of Russia's own money, which is being fought in courts now. Economies often decide wars.

There is no winner in war, but you are buying into the Russia narrative a bit too much here. Millions have fled Russia over the years leading up to this war, and their population crisis is going from bad to worse. You could also say the same for Ukraine, lots of women and children have left. Meanwhile, Russia also snatches people up from the street and then conscripts them for whatever reason it can to meet its quotas. Ukraine for a long time had more volunteers than it could arm, so most of the Russian talking points on that were merely propaganda. This is why there is still a war going on because if you believed the Russian lies, they'd have destroyed Ukraine 10 times over.

Russia tends to avoid conscription from its two favorite oblasts, but for the rest, they take whoever they need, whenever they need them.

The main point is, if you think Ukraine will be destroyed, Russia will be crippled as well. Russia will not recover because it was already suffering a population crisis before this war even started. Now they've got lots of crippled men, old soldiers with PTSD, and ex-convicts roaming around their cities, meanwhile, they've burned up the population they needed to, bluntly, breed and reverse their population decline. Also, they have so many partisan groups burning things down, it's just commonplace these days.

Ukraine is always being rebuilt, and the EU and NATO will ensure its safety and prosperity. Russia is a broken-down shell of a nation outside of its two favorite western cities. I've watched far higher Russian losses secondhand through videos marked on the map, than were reported in Western estimates until I stopped watching it daily. The Enforcers channel marks all recorded locations where incidents happen daily on an interactive map.

The old Russia has yet to do a proper mobilization line always makes me roll my eyes. What are they going to arm those people with toothpicks? They are already in a wartime economy and can barely kit out their current forces without outside help. I suppose if other countries produced even more for them?

 

41 minutes ago, Karmadhi said:

Europe is definitely USA's bitch  

...

If they had a truly independent foreign policy they would have cut out ties with Israel by now and called out their consistent war crimes. 

Flawed logic.
What could Europe gain in this hostile climate by alienating the US? If anything we need to tighten our ties with America, because of BRICS's aggressive expansion, and their meddling in the American government.
 

41 minutes ago, Karmadhi said:

Europeans are weak and lack resolve. All their money is useless without resolve. We saw it with France during WW2. They surrendered after 6 weeks even though they had a strong army. They preferred to give up Paris (the fucking capital), rather than risk it turning into a battleground. If they had fought like the Soviets did, perhaps WW2 would have ended much earlier (we can just speculate). 

Also, if the Soviets gave up as easily as France did, Axis would have won WW2. 

So resolve is super important and Europeans tend to lack it.

It is the result (imo) of decaying nationalism and comfortable lives. Wars require a degree of nationalism to be fought which is currently missing, especially in Western Europe.

Poland would be exception.

 

The UK has plenty of resolve when it comes to war, we just don't like fighting them, but we have a reputation for being stubborn and not giving in, that's one of the reasons we understand and appreciate Ukraine. You'll find that your underestimation of how democracies resist autocracies is exactly the reason for Putin's over-extension in Ukraine

France is a powerful country and has a long history of warfare. People keep belittling the French, and it's already making them take a harder posture. I saw it when their African colonies were hit, all the Russians mocking the French, it's going to get them into an egoic state, Spain and Italy also. These are all powerful nations and economies, all capable of fighting a war. Most large nations in Europe are.

I'm not sure why you think if a nation is threatened enough that it won't respond with force. I guess everyone needs to keep pushing Europe till they find out again, then they can complain about those bad Europeans with a surprised face.

Edited April 22 by BlueOak

[BlueOak]

21 minutes ago, Bobby_2021 said:

Negotiations now.

Russia has already ruled out giving up any territory it has stolen, so there is nothing to negotiate. Unless he's willing to step back from that, what point is there? Just to give Putin time to rearm and go again?
 

Edited April 22 by BlueOak

[Bobby_2021]

34 minutes ago, BlueOak said:

Russia has already ruled out giving up any territory it has stolen, so there is nothing to negotiate. Unless he's willing to step back from that, what point is there? Just to give Putin time to rearm and go again?
 

So let him gobble up even more land and natural resources?

[BlueOak]

29 minutes ago, Bobby_2021 said:

So let him gobble up even more land and natural resources?

That will happen if he's allowed to rearm and attack again, yes. This is the 8th time he's done so.

If he's held where he is, or pushed back, he can't go further.

[BlueOak]

 

[Raze]

No, this money won’t let Ukraine win, it will just pointlessly extend the war.

The idea Putin is planning on attacking NATO is ridiculous, he would be dooming himself as NATO is far larger militarily then him, and he has given no indication he would do so unlike invading Ukraine which has been predicted for years based on leaks or statements he’s made. It’s obvious propaganda to get more funding for Ukraine and will be seen through how he never attacks NATO a after he eventually finishes in Ukraine, that is if NATO doesn’t attack him first.

[Chadders]

@mrPixel I’ll never forget what one Ukrainian said: I’d rather die on my feet than live on my knees

You were right to say Putin is a bully and we should stand up to bullies. We need to show Putin that this will not be easy for you. As far as I’m concerned we have shown Putin to be pathetic same with his pathetic army - disorganised, undisciplined and treated very badly. Russia should have been able to take the whole country with their military but they couldn’t even get to Kyiv. Best they can do is send their drones. They have already lost in my eyes. Ukraine is the victor because they did the impossible by holding back a superpower 

It will end one way or another but as long as the Ukrainians have a willingness to fight we should support them. People talk about negotiating with Putin but you cannot trust the guy. I’m not saying we should not come to the table at some point but let the fight for freedom continue there a little longer whilst there is a willingness to do so. Keep the hope alive for Ukrainians. I don’t want to deprive them of that and the message we send to dictators that you can’t just get away with shit. 

Edited April 22 by Chadders

[Bobby_2021]

Remember all the experts analysing that Ukraine will crush Russia with NATO support in the early days of the war. Those are the same people that day NATO will crush Russia lmao.

All of that were pure propaganda. This was never a war that Ukraine/NATO could win right from the beginning. The earlier they could negotiate a truce the better it is Ukraine.

Putin is not interested a war with NATO. Not that he is scared of it. That would be the end of NATO as we know it.

Putin would accomplish what USSR couldn't. 

Do you think European citizens would love to let their stupid government take their lives? This situation is the right recipe for an internal collapse. There are already significant disagreements within NATO already. It's held together with support from Washington.

How will Putin win? Simply drag it on for a couple of years. Let's hope we don't get there.

Edited April 22 by Bobby_2021

[Bobby_2021]

7 hours ago, BlueOak said:

That will happen if he's allowed to rearm and attack again, yes. This is the 8th time he's done so.

If he's held where he is, or pushed back, he can't go further.

This doesn't even make sense.

"That will happen so we are going to let him do it anyway." 

None of what you are doing is holding him where he is, nor pushing him back. He is indeed going further, at an unprecedented pace. 

Most Ukrainian supporters have not updated their minds on what is happening on the ground. A world has changed from APR 2022 to APR 2024.

This aid is merely a lifeline for Ukraine who is already on the verge of death. That 60B is not going to Ukraine. It's going to Military Industrial Complex who now has to make those weapons and then ship it to Ukraine.

Russia is the one setting the terms now. You better listen to them.

I have nothing else to say.

[BlueOak]

7 hours ago, Bobby_2021 said:

This doesn't even make sense.

"That will happen so we are going to let him do it anyway." 

None of what you are doing is holding him where he is, nor pushing him back. He is indeed going further, at an unprecedented pace. 

Most Ukrainian supporters have not updated their minds on what is happening on the ground. A world has changed from APR 2022 to APR 2024.

This aid is merely a lifeline for Ukraine who is already on the verge of death. That 60B is not going to Ukraine. It's going to Military Industrial Complex who now has to make those weapons and then ship it to Ukraine.

Russia is the one setting the terms now. You better listen to them.

I have nothing else to say.

The front line barely moves and the only reason it's moved meters at all is because Ukraine had to ration its artillery and ammunition. Now it can match or surpass the Russians for a couple of years again.  Your entire analysis is wrong. You can't see Russia suffering, you can't see Ukraine holding. You quote to me things like the average age of a Ukranian soldier earlier without even realizing its because those under 27 were not allowed to be conscripted, now its 25.

I get my information from the map itself. You have Russian propaganda.

Ukraine is not on the verge of death at all. I just told you they are conscripting another 500,000 soldiers for the summer. Don't listen to so much Russian propaganda, and try to do an objective analysis. The line barely moves either way. There will be some Ukrainian offensives in areas that are less well dug in, and some Russian offensives. Everything is not as well defended as anyone here is making out. Certain territories are very well fortified, but not things that have been occupied for a month, 

That's how wars are fought It is not one battle that decides everything, it's small operational gains and losses. People have forgotten I suppose, because like you say they are used to one weaker country fighting a stronger one, not countries that are more evenly matched. The reality you haven't adjusted to still is that Russia isn't much stronger than Ukraine. With enough western weapons, Russia is closer to an underdog, but it gets BRICS support to even it out.

Democracies don't give up land to Tyrants. Expect violence and instability for decades in any occupied area.
 

With the aid, it'll be up to 1k+ a day if they keep up their human wave, they probably won't and go back to defend instead.

Edited April 23 by BlueOak

[BlueOak]

7 hours ago, Bobby_2021 said:

Remember all the experts analysing that Ukraine will crush Russia with NATO support in the early days of the war. Those are the same people that day NATO will crush Russia lmao.

All of that were pure propaganda. This was never a war that Ukraine/NATO could win right from the beginning. The earlier they could negotiate a truce the better it is Ukraine.

Putin is not interested a war with NATO. Not that he is scared of it. That would be the end of NATO as we know it.

Putin would accomplish what USSR couldn't. 

Do you think European citizens would love to let their stupid government take their lives? This situation is the right recipe for an internal collapse. There are already significant disagreements within NATO already. It's held together with support from Washington.

How will Putin win? Simply drag it on for a couple of years. Let's hope we don't get there.

1) THEY DID. Ukraine beat them out of Sumy, Kyiv, and Kherson, then held a line.

Putin is interested in a greater Russia, this is his 8th war to create it. As the video shows, if Trump pulls out of NATO, a war with Europe is likely.

Again, you belittle Europe, it's insane. Why do people do this? They did it to Russia, and now they do it to the rest of Europe. Do they want to create the same result again? It boggles the mind. Keep pushing, keep calling people weak, and the result is a war. When Europe does it back to Russia, you'll be saying oh how could this happen, those bad Europeans? Surprised face.

Do I think far-right governments will tolerate an aggressive Russian expansion on their borders, and meddling in their elections, a pattern that has for centuries meant war and instability? No, I don't. I think without America holding NATO together there would already be a larger regional war, with Polish, English, and Baltic troops in Ukraine (at a minimum probably France and Finland too). Your entire focus on the Americans as the bad guys misses the regional history and reality of the region. As I've tried to tell you 100 times, America was reluctant to give this last round of aid, but Europe was asking for help or getting ready to use their own troops.

Russia wants the baltics back inside Russia, as the video tells you. There are large Russian populations there. Putin has already said so. I can only keep repeating what he's said. You can ignore it. You can put your head in the clouds and just say America is the bad guy, thus never seeing both sides, or the ground reality at all in that case.

Edited April 23 by BlueOak

[BlueOak]

For people who have no idea about how Europe operates.

When one power starts to conquer territory, alliances arise to fight them. It has always been that way, the different powers have kept each other in check for hundreds of years.

*That is what a non-globalist reality looks like, the thing so many right-wingers have been rushing toward for a couple of decades with open arms.

Edited April 23 by BlueOak

[Bobby_2021]

@BlueOak 

I didn't mean to undermine Europe, but the reality is that Europe and Ukraine is caught in a battle between US and Russia. 

If everyone treats you like a pawn, maybe you are one. 

What is the foreign policy of Europe? They don't have it. Just like Ukraine. 

Washington decides it. What is the foreign policy of Washington? That also comes from somewhere I don't want to say but we all know.

[BlueOak]

9 minutes ago, Bobby_2021 said:

@BlueOak 

I didn't mean to undermine Europe, but the reality is that Europe and Ukraine is caught in a battle between US and Russia. 

If everyone treats you like a pawn, maybe you are one. 

What is the foreign policy of Europe? They don't have it. Just like Ukraine. 

Washington decides it. What is the foreign policy of Washington? That also comes from somewhere I don't want to say but we all know.

Then maybe Russia is a pawn too? Did you see how that assumption went? Then how many European countries are rearming? I'll link a video at the bottom with the latest development to match Belarus.

The foreign policy of Europe is 44 different countries' foreign policy, including Russia and Russian-aligned states.

Again, your point of view sees one block. It sees the West, or NATO, or Europe. From our point of view, we are 44 voices, with 44 different foreign policies. Here is one of them:

Poland asks again for nukes: https://apnews.com/article/poland-nuclear-weapons-nato-russia-ukraine-d92c508d6ff53683a25f1bc62d256f86
If you can for a second, try to put aside your (can I say block or collective) bias and understand Polish concerns, especially with Belarus getting nukes, then you can see the war in more focus and the potential fallout from it.

 Or the video version, the start is the relevant bit.

 

Edited April 23 by BlueOak