Catastrophic risk expert Seth Baum on evaluating the risk of nuclear war.

[Ajay0]

An insightful article by catastrophic risk expert Seth Baum on evaluating the risk of nuclear war...
 

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20220309-how-to-evaluate-the-risk-of-nuclear-war

 

Quote

Whether the invasion of Ukraine or any other event will result in nuclear war raises desperately important questions. For the individual: should I take shelter somewhere relatively safe?

For human society: should global food production systems prepare for nuclear winter? In the worst-case scenario, a nuclear war may cause the collapse of global civilisation, potentially resulting in massive harm into the distant future. However, whether an event will result in nuclear war is deeply uncertain, as are the consequences.

Reconciling this tension between the importance of evaluating nuclear war risk and the difficulty of doing so is a primary focus of my research. So, how do we approach these uncertainties, and what can it tell us about how to interpret present-day events?
~ Seth Baum