AI is not just a hype cycle

[Girzo]

@thenondualtankie Google has proven to over-promise on thier product.

Trusting them at face-value makes you a sucker akin to guys who believe in Elon Musk saying full-self driving is coming next year for the last 10 years.

[UnbornTao]

1 hour ago, Dryas said:

Getting an AGI would fundamentally change everything. According to Metaculus we get there by around 2030. That doesn’t seem like just another hype cycle at all.

What would the achievement of AGI look like?

[Ishanga]

16 hours ago, SeaMonster said:

That would never happen because human beings don't live according to optimization algorithms; you simply can't exclude emotional motivations from the equation.  This is just another iteration of the utopian dream; even if it's not as absurd as socialism or communism (or technocracy of old) it still has its own unavoidable problems.  Anyone who thinks otherwise does not understand human nature.  To reduce human life to high standards of living, resource management and leisure is just not thinking seriously.  Wealthy people torture and persecute each other in the West for status brownie points (virtue signaling/social justice.)  Human beings always have a choice to live up to their worst tendencies and wealth and leisure does not ameliorate these tendencies.  We already have almost death spiral demography in the wealthier countries closest to this RIGHT NOW -- you can imagine what it would be like under conditions of provision and leisure. 

(Yes, the wealthier the society, the less kids  -- unless there is some existential, in other words meaningful reason otherwise.)

You would literally have a full-blown rebellion/revolution on your hands in 20 years if you tried something like that.  You can 100% bank that.

I remember how 20 years ago you had these super-optimistic predictions how the Internet was going to usher in the utopia too.  They seem silly in retrospect.

The Idea of a Resource Based Economy and what Fresco is saying is not a Uptopian concept, he even addresses this in his talks, its about a more efficiency society (society has been going this way for decades, each decade with tech things are heading or pointed towards more efficiency than before) and fairness. Right now nothing in the west is efficent or fair for the majority of ppl when it comes to equality of almost anything, the wealthy are getting more wealthy and hording all the money and power, the gap btwn most of us and them is widening, so Resource Based Economy is about that, making it more fair and equitable for everyone so the resources are not isolated to a small group of ppl while everyone else suffers for it...I don't think right now this generation or the next one could handle it, but the ones after could if brought up to speed about what it can offer and Humans being more Conscious, the problem is with all the problems in the world (Climate change, Wars, Social divide, etc) I am not sure we will make it or be here in 20-30 yrs,,,

Edited January 15 by Ishanga

[SeaMonster]

30 minutes ago, Ishanga said:

The Idea of a Resource Based Economy and what Fresco is saying is not a Uptopian concept, he even addresses this in his talks, its about a more efficiency society (society has been going this way for decades, each decade with tech things are heading or pointed towards more efficiency than before) and fairness. Right now nothing in the west is efficent or fair for the majority of ppl when it comes to equality of almost anything, the wealthy are getting more wealthy and hording all the money and power, the gap btwn most of us and them is widening, so Resource Based Economy is about that, making it more fair and equitable for everyone so the resources are not isolated to a small group of ppl while everyone else suffers for it...I don't think right now this generation or the next one could handle it, but the ones after could if brought up to speed about what it can offer and Humans being more Conscious, the problem is with all the problems in the world (Climate change, Wars, Social divide, etc) I am not sure we will make it or be here in 20-30 yrs,,,

The problem with this idea is that you think "efficiency" and "fairness" aren't emotional concepts, but they are.

You necessarily have to inject your subjective values and opinions of what is fair into the equation.

According to Aristotle, fairness (or justice) is "just deserts."  According to communists it's "from each according to his ability, to each according to his need."

RBE sounds like high tech communism, which is why any attempts to implement it would fail.

Quote

I don't think right now this generation or the next one could handle it, but the ones after could if brought up to speed about what it can offer and Humans being more Conscious, the problem is with all the problems in the world (Climate change, Wars, Social divide, etc) I am not sure we will make it or be here in 20-30 yrs,,,

You can convince a 20 year old of anything, but then they turn 30, 35, 40 and realize you sold them a bunch of crap.

This is just endless cycles of utopian thought, despite your protestations to the contrary.

Edited January 15 by SeaMonster

[thenondualtankie]

15 hours ago, UnbornTao said:

What would the achievement of AGI look like?

@UnbornTao I like OpenAI's definition of AGI which is an AI system that can replace humans at 'most economically valuable tasks'.

A slight issue with this definition is that AGI will likely have a very skewed skillset, so we may end up with an AI that is superhuman at programming but still wouldn't be able to understand video as well as humans. So AGI could also be 'general intelligence which exceeds or matches humans at many tasks while being shit at others'.

'What is AGI' is almost like 'what is intelligence' so it's rather challenging.

We could also go into its impact on society if that's what you were asking.

[UnbornTao]

1 hour ago, thenondualtankie said:

@UnbornTao I like OpenAI's definition of AGI which is an AI system that can replace humans at 'most economically valuable tasks'.

A slight issue with this definition is that AGI will likely have a very skewed skillset, so we may end up with an AI that is superhuman at programming but still wouldn't be able to understand video as well as humans. So AGI could also be 'general intelligence which exceeds or matches humans at many tasks while being shit at others'.

'What is AGI' is almost like 'what is intelligence' so it's rather challenging.

We could also go into its impact on society if that's what you were asking.

Got it, thank you.

[Ishanga]

15 hours ago, SeaMonster said:

The problem with this idea is that you think "efficiency" and "fairness" aren't emotional concepts, but they are.

You necessarily have to inject your subjective values and opinions of what is fair into the equation.

According to Aristotle, fairness (or justice) is "just deserts."  According to communists it's "from each according to his ability, to each according to his need."

RBE sounds like high tech communism, which is why any attempts to implement it would fail.

You can convince a 20 year old of anything, but then they turn 30, 35, 40 and realize you sold them a bunch of crap.

This is just endless cycles of utopian thought, despite your protestations to the contrary.

Well better to Aim for the stars then the status quo and fall short a bit then to continue as is and probably go down further..The main problem in the world is not a tech or AI problem, its Human Concsiousness, even with all the work that has been done and is being done, You cannot talk Spirituality when a persons stomach is empty, or war is going on, or some sort of lack is there, and that is happening everywhere for no real reason, I live in Canada one of the most wealthy countries and we have a ton of problems and each 10yrs it gets worse, I can't imagine what it is like in a 3rd world country, nothing is getting done for the masses, so something has to change...

[Dryas]

23 hours ago, Yimpa said:

Just because is has the word “Meta” in it doesn’t necessarily mean it knows squat 

Who do you trust? Here’s a list of people with similar timelines:  https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/18vawje/comment/kfpntso/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=mweb3x&utm_name=mweb3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button

But I mean sure you could just say they’re all bought into a hype cycle. I just think that’s a less plausible explanation. 

Edited January 16 by Dryas

[Tech36363]

@Leo Gura We need to train AI 1000x more and unless we're buring lots of GPUs a day we can't reach AGI. 

 

To start humanitys next chapter where all boring jobs are taken by AI we need to train harder 

[Davino]

On 15/1/2024 at 10:09 PM, UnbornTao said:

What would the achievement of AGI look like?

Better than any human in any knowledge-based work

The same way there is no human better than a machine in facturing cans. Soon the best layer will be an AI and so on.

The implications are how we redifine the labour market and the social contract when human work is not needed any more?

This video is the best I could find about the topic

 

Edited January 17 by Davino

[Ishanga]

4 hours ago, Davino said:

Better than any human in any knowledge-based work

The same way there is no human better than a machine in facturing cans. Soon the best layer will be an AI and so on.

The implications are how we redifine the labour market and the social contract when human work is not needed any more?

This video is the best I could find about the topic

 

Good video and basically in line with the ideas I mentioned in my posts before about Resource Based Economy, its not a uptopian concept but just a way of living that is radically different from the way we are living now and have been since the  industrial revolution. Ppl will not have to work like they have worked for thousands of years, today we are just cogs in wheels of the corporate power structure, are born to be that? No imo...

Here Sadhguru talks about AI, basically what the fella said in the video, and how to deal with it and live a magical life:) Note this video was made over 5yrs ago...