Trump beating Biden in polls

[Devin]

34 minutes ago, DocWatts said:

While a criminal conviction won't deter Trump's MAGA cultists, those folks were already locked in for Trump, regardless of what he does. 

The election is instead going to hinge on what proportion of the other %70 of the country will bother to come out to support Biden and the Dems in the 2024 election.

All signs are that it's going to be a closer election than in 2020, but that's a far cry from predictions that 2024 is going to be a disaster for Dems.

Yeah, I think it comes down to if would be Biden voters get to the polls, gonna need a high energy campaign for that old man, legalize marijuana or something.

[DocWatts]

Trump just got kicked off from the ballot in the state of Colorado after a ruling by Colorado's Supreme Court, due to to his role in inciting an insurrection.

While Trump wasn't going to win Colorado, other states may be following suite depending on how the case is ruled when it gets reviewed by the SCOTUS in the next few weeks.

 

https://apnews.com/article/trump-insurrection-14th-amendment-2024-colorado-d16dd8f354eeaf450558378c65fd79a2

 

[BlueOak]

On 12/19/2023 at 7:12 PM, Nivsch said:

How Nikki Haley is doing?

I think she got a bump to 39% in the latest republican primary polls, so she has a chance still, despite what anyone says. If others eventually drop out during their primary, she could give Trump a run for his money. Though if we were predicting it, the primary is probably still in Trump's favor.

Part of me would be happy, as faith in the rule of law in America is probably restored if Haley is the candidate, and the man running against institutions and the rule of law probably goes to Prison. Part of me wants Trump to run because he's less likely to win independent voters over, but that would be selfish because it's also a path to further social unrest if Trump wins or loses. If Trump is not in the race at all, social unrest is less likely.

Why do I care about social unrest in America, well I don't like seeing our allies or countries generally damage themselves, plus we copy America in a watered-down way. I'll have to argue why America is doing dumb things again and not to copy their mistakes.

 

Edited December 20, 2023 by BlueOak

[Devin]

4 hours ago, DocWatts said:

Trump just got kicked off from the ballot in the state of Colorado after a ruling by Colorado's Supreme Court, due to to his role in inciting an insurrection.

While Trump wasn't going to win Colorado, other states may be following suite depending on how the case is ruled when it gets reviewed by the SCOTUS in the next few weeks.

 

https://apnews.com/article/trump-insurrection-14th-amendment-2024-colorado-d16dd8f354eeaf450558378c65fd79a2

 

Conservatives have already been claiming a wording technicality in the article omits the office of presidency for potential violators of the clause, stating the only offices it applies to are state offices, because it was for barring confederates, the President can't conduct a rebellion against himself or his government obviously.

It's baloney but I see the conservative Supreme Court claiming the voters should decide.

The Liberal play will be waiting until ballot day to make their claim, not giving the court enough time to hear the other States cases.

Edited December 20, 2023 by Devin

[Devin]

32 minutes ago, BlueOak said:

I think she got a bump to 39% in the latest republican primary polls, so she has a chance still, despite what anyone says. If others eventually drop out during their primary, she could give Trump a run for his money. Though if we were predicting it, the primary is probably still in Trump's favor.

Part of me would be happy, as faith in the rule of law in America is probably restored if Haley is the candidate, and the man running against institutions and the rule of law probably goes to Prison. Part of me wants Trump to run because he's less likely to win independent voters over, but that would be selfish because it's also a path to further social unrest if Trump wins or loses. If Trump is not in the race at all, social unrest is less likely.

Why do I care about social unrest in America, well I don't like seeing our allies or countries generally damage themselves, plus we copy America in a watered-down way. I'll have to argue why America is doing dumb things again and not to copy their mistakes.

 

As an American in the thick of Conservative territory, I don't think there's reason to be concerned about social unrest if Trump runs and loses, just a bunch of hot air blown around.

[BlueOak]

5 minutes ago, Devin said:

As an American in the thick of Conservative territory, I don't think there's reason to be concerned about social unrest if Trump runs and loses, just a bunch of hot air blown around.

There will be political violence. On what scale I don't know. People keeping telling me so from their own mouths when interviewed. While its much easier to talk. Some of them will do it, they did during his presidency, not even counting the end. There was some during Bidens term due to the Israeli conflict.

I am from a conservative area also, I don't know if it compares. It's a farming area largely, slowly becoming a town. its a sleepy place where not much happens and nobody ever changes, for better or worse the drama of the outside world is usually sarcastically mocked or chided. Nobody here speaks like I've heard trump supporters speak in support of a candidate. Their identity is directly tied to his, so they experience some of what he experiences.

[Devin]

29 minutes ago, BlueOak said:

There will be political violence. On what scale I don't know. People keeping telling me so from their own mouths when interviewed. While its much easier to talk. Some of them will do it, they did during his presidency, not even counting the end. There was some during Bidens term due to the Israeli conflict.

I am from a conservative area also, I don't know if it compares. It's a farming area largely, slowly becoming a town. its a sleepy place where not much happens and nobody ever changes, for better or worse the drama of the outside world is usually sarcastically mocked or chided. Nobody here speaks like I've heard trump supporters speak in support of a candidate. Their identity is directly tied to his, so they experience some of what he experiences.

I can't see any violence happening, they're all talk, January 6 was just a mob mentality sort of thing and the most violent of them were there. I have no hesitation at all saying I see nothing to worry about. Tensions have also really cooled, although they still support Trump they don't have much faith in him and are seeing holes in him.

Edited December 21, 2023 by Devin

[Danioover9000]

@Devin

20 minutes ago, Devin said:

I can't see any violence happening, they're all talk, January 6 was just a mob mentality sort of thing and the most violent of them were there. I have no hesitation at all saying I see nothing to worry about. Tensions have also really cooled, although they still support Trump they don't have much faith in him and are seeing holes in him.

   I feel it could be like this, although it all depends on if and how he loses, if he loses spectacularly there might be a backlash like that. They better up their security this time cuz Jan 6 security was just bad.

[Devin]

6 minutes ago, Danioover9000 said:

@Devin

   I feel it could be like this, although it all depends on if and how he loses, if he loses spectacularly there might be a backlash like that. They better up their security this time cuz Jan 6 security was just bad.

Trump holding off the national guard is a very large nail in his insurrectionist coffin in my eyes, it's standard procedure for them to have moved in immediately. Biden has no reason not to have them posted ahead of time, but I still feel there's no threat.

Edited December 21, 2023 by Devin

[Danioover9000]

@Devin

11 minutes ago, Devin said:

Trump holding off the national guard is a very large nail in his insurrectionist coffin in my eyes, it's standard procedure for them to have moved in immediately. Biden has no reason not to have them posted ahead of time, but I still feel there's no threat.

   For sure, I'm just venting a bit about Jan 6, honestly where were the normal amounts of security and police then? Biden or FBI could've at least been aware that MAGA and the more alt right conservatives would've been pissed off enough to start something.

[Hardkill]

 

[Devin]

26 minutes ago, Danioover9000 said:

@Devin

   For sure, I'm just venting a bit about Jan 6, honestly where were the normal amounts of security and police then? Biden or FBI could've at least been aware that MAGA and the more alt right conservatives would've been pissed off enough to start something.

The National Guard was standing by down the road. The rally was not at the Capitol Building, it was down the road, their permit was not for the Capitol Building so the police were spread out too thin when they marched to the Capitol. The Capitol Police requested the National Guard for hours before they came, there are claims Trump or his underling intentionally held the Guard back.

Edited December 21, 2023 by Devin

[Devin]

4 minutes ago, Hardkill said:

 

Great video, thank you.

[DocWatts]

13 hours ago, Devin said:

I can't see any violence happening, they're all talk, January 6 was just a mob mentality sort of thing and the most violent of them were there. I have no hesitation at all saying I see nothing to worry about. Tensions have also really cooled, although they still support Trump they don't have much faith in him and are seeing holes in him.

While there will be a lot from MAGA bitching and moaning about how they're going to start a civil war because their cult leader is finally facing legal consequences for his actions, the vast majority of them aren't going to do shit beyond whining about it online.

The thing about stochastic terrorism though is that if you broadcast dogwhistle messaging that encourages violence to millions of people, a handful of those people will be unhinged enough to follow through on it. Only takes one person armed with a rifle to kill dozens of people, or to murder one of your elected officials.

The FBI has been sounding the alarm on far right domestic terrorism for years. The manifestos left behind by these domestic terrorists after they go and shoot up a synagogue or a grocery store in a black neighborhood are basically bullet points of the conspiracism they've been hearing from Fox News, Alex Jones, etc.

Edited December 21, 2023 by DocWatts

[Danioover9000]

@DocWatts

1 hour ago, DocWatts said:

While there will be a lot from MAGA bitching and moaning about how they're going to start a civil war because their cult leader is finally facing legal consequences for his actions, the vast majority of them aren't going to do shit beyond whining about it online.

The thing about stochastic terrorism though is that if you broadcast dogwhistle messaging that encourages violence to millions of people, a handful of those people will be unhinged enough to follow through on it. Only takes one person armed with a rifle to kill dozens of people, or to murder one of your elected officials.

The FBI has been sounding the alarm on far right domestic terrorism for years. The manifestos left behind by these domestic terrorists after they go and shoot up a synagogue or a grocery store in a black neighborhood are basically bullet points of the conspiracism they've been hearing from Fox News, Alex Jones, etc.

   There's also speculation that a week before Jan 6 FBI had some intel that a few alt right groups were planning on some kind of rioting and insurrection if Trump didn't win. So how come they didn't respond fast enough, and allowed Jan 6 to happen and let a few people injured and 1 killed?

[Devin]

18 minutes ago, Danioover9000 said:

@DocWatts

   There's also speculation that a week before Jan 6 FBI had some intel that a few alt right groups were planning on some kind of rioting and insurrection if Trump didn't win. So how come they didn't respond fast enough, and allowed Jan 6 to happen and let a few people injured and 1 killed?

The FBI passed on the Intel, the Guard was allegedly requested prior to January 6 but the requests were denied.

[Devin]

The holding back the Guard was a real smoking gun for Trump in my eyes.

"Matthews’ memo begins by focusing on a 2:30 p.m. conference call on Jan. 6 that included senior military and law enforcement officials, himself and Walker among them. Then-Capitol Police Chief Steven Sund “pleaded” on the call for the immediate deployment of the National Guard to the Capitol, Matthews recalled, saying that rioters had breached the building’s perimeter. Walker has also told Congress that Sund made that plea then. According to Matthews, Flynn and Piatt both opposed the move."

[Devin]

1 hour ago, DocWatts said:

While there will be a lot from MAGA bitching and moaning about how they're going to start a civil war because their cult leader is finally facing legal consequences for his actions, the vast majority of them aren't going to do shit beyond whining about it online.

The thing about stochastic terrorism though is that if you broadcast dogwhistle messaging that encourages violence to millions of people, a handful of those people will be unhinged enough to follow through on it. Only takes one person armed with a rifle to kill dozens of people, or to murder one of your elected officials.

The FBI has been sounding the alarm on far right domestic terrorism for years. The manifestos left behind by these domestic terrorists after they go and shoot up a synagogue or a grocery store in a black neighborhood are basically bullet points of the conspiracism they've been hearing from Fox News, Alex Jones, etc.

Yeah, and Trump is bound to make even more deranged statements.

[BlueOak]

@Devin | @DocWatts

You don't need many people willing to commit violence for it to have a large impact on the population. One radical can hurt many, and one radical can play a much larger role in the creation of fear.

This is why when speaking to a large audience, every word needs to be considered, and someone with too narrow a perspective should not be a public speaker.

[Buck Edwards]

Yea it's a precarious situation.