Trump beating Biden in polls

[Devin]

Is this just because of a delay for feelings about the economy turning around? Why is Trump gaining on his lead in the polls? Do Americans care that much about the wars?

I think it will turn around before long and a few percentage will warm on Biden more, I think there takes some time for it to sink in that we're on a good trajectory. But I'm not a good political thermometer, what's your opinions?

I also can't believe it's Biden and Trump, WTF.

[How to be wise]

@Devin Biden will win. Don’t worry.

[Devin]

10 minutes ago, How to be wise said:

@Devin Biden will win. Don’t worry.

I thought Desantis would be crushing Trump, but they still support Trump. How can you be so sure? I don't feel there's enough gumption from 2020 Biden voters to get them to the polls, looks like 2016 again.

Edited December 19, 2023 by Devin

[Phil King]

Hes never won a popular vote. My grandparents who are die hard conservatives have even turned their back on trump. Any rational citizen will not vote for an insurrectionist with 90+ criminal charges against him. Sadly at least 20% of americans are immature and irrational MAGA idiots. Should be interesting for sure, but I am pretty confident in Biden winning

Edited December 19, 2023 by Phil King

[How to be wise]

1 hour ago, Devin said:

I thought Desantis would be crushing Trump, but they still support Trump. How can you be so sure? I don't feel there's enough gumption from 2020 Biden voters to get them to the polls, looks like 2016 again.

Just look at the record of presidents’ seeking reelection. Almost always they win. 

[Devin]

Thank you guys, I just feel so out of touch, so many people online and in everyday life here in the midwest, they seem to like Trump more now, like an underdog fighting for them.

[Tanz]

20% of black people said they will vote for Trump and because Biden leaned hard on Israel, most Muslim Americans will vote for Trump  

[Leo Gura]

It's gonna be very close.

[PurpleTree]

2 hours ago, Tanz said:

20% of black people said they will vote for Trump and because Biden leaned hard on Israel, most Muslim Americans will vote for Trump  

Isn’t trump even much closer with israel with kushner, moving the embassy from tel aviv to jerusalem etc?

[BlueOak]

Probably in order of current importance. The top 3 of each are core issues each party can work on certainly

Hurting the Dems

1, Economy. - If Biden cuts cheques in some form for people toward the election, he could give this a temporary bump. If trump promises it, he gets the same. This is by far and away the giant in the room.

2, Israel - If this ends early enough the damage might start to reverse, but I don't see it ending early enough. Yemen tensions are picking up.

3, Migration is successfully weaponized by a variety of factors and clever maneuvering, causing the majority of people to want a stricter approach.

4, Killing Leftist Populism for Fanatical Corporaistim. Dismissing people's concerns in an aloof way is the usual liberal position that works against them to deflate their vote. Then they try to shame people for not voting their way.

5, The move to the right in part caused by the above, to the point where more and more people cannot align their values with the current political dynamic, and fewer people are represented or they shift right collectively.  if you are not seen as the most supportive of bloodshed in Palestine, or the strongest response to Mexico (bomb Mexico's cartels one Republican suggested), then you are seen in a more negative light or less masculine.

5a, Hero-idealized masculinity (which is not objective reality), when used as a way to govern society, is a fascist trait.

6, Crackdown on protests, are all part of the above chain of democratic self-sabotage among their base.

? Maybe, the perception of being Anti guns, in Ameria is probably a net negative. One of the few things we differ with you on. This is borderline, i'd say it hurts more than helps, but I am less certain.

Hurting the Republicans

1, Policies I'll list two obvious ones. Being fanatically anti-abortion, is a terrible position to take in a liberal democracy.

1a, The constant reference to cutting social security, toward an aging population, is politically stabbing yourself in the foot over and over for no gain. Just stop people doing this, at least till past the election.

2, Crimes of their candidate, and being against the legal system, or traditional conservative institutions. Plays well with a fanatical base, and gives everyone else pause for thought.

3, Trump's narcissism and victim mentality. Accepted by his core base of 25-30%, hated by everyone else. His general words are loved by his base, but these two aspects of Trump are harder to swallow. The victim mentality especially does not play well with right-wingers, why someone doesn't stop him from using that language is probably due to his narcissism.

4, Conspiracy lunacy, and acting the fools. If they just took all QANON from their discussion, and stopped attacking each other, it'd be a huge step in the right direction. Kick the crazies like MTG out of the party, she does nothing good for you at all.

5, Their need to vilify the left rather than liberals, at this point they'd start to pick up actual leftwing votes if they just stopped that language. Sadly its all about appearance for and against the reasoning for not doing. They need to be more unified in the general message, but being selective would divide and conquer an already divided liberal party.

6, Climate Ignorance. I realize it still plays to core support, but for everyone else as they see more and more evidence of it, it looks increasingly foolish.

At the moment Trump wins, we'll see what happens when he's convicted of a few crimes, and if things like Yemen don't turn into a war for the democrats, which seems to be about to happen on some scale. Republicans would have more likely won with a more traditional candidate and by a wider margin. Picking someone who can at least appear respectable, goes a long way with how the average person views the world (sadly).

I realize some of these also help each party, but net it would be a loss. We get some of this in England too so I see it play out here, only of course we are supposedly more civilized - Which is funny, go view an MPs behaving badly House of Commons video for a laugh, it might also make you reflect more positively on your politics, though it looks more fun here. Provided in a spoiler for levity.

 

 

Edited December 19, 2023 by BlueOak

[Devin]

2 hours ago, PurpleTree said:

Isn’t trump even much closer with israel with kushner, moving the embassy from tel aviv to jerusalem etc?

Reuters

https://www.reuters.com › world › t...

Trump pledges to expel immigrants who support Hamas, ban Muslims ...

Oct 17, 2023 — Donald Trump promised on Monday that if elected ...

 

The problem isn't that they'll vote for Trump but that they won't vote. This is why I'm getting to the point where I don't give a fuck if Trump gets in again. He doesn't hurt me short term, I'm white and not poor, I mainly oppose him because he hurts the working class and minorities, but if they're going to allow him to win why should I give a fuck about them? I'll vote Biden hands down but I'm about done feeling sorry for people that won't even vote for themselves, I guess they need to learn the hard way.

[Devin]

21 minutes ago, BlueOak said:

Probably in order of current importance. The top 3 of each are core issues each party can work on certainly

Hurting the Dems

1, Economy. - If Biden cuts cheques in some form for people toward the election, he could give this a temporary bump. If trump promises it, he gets the same. This is by far and away the giant in the room.

2, Israel - If this ends early enough the damage might start to reverse, but I don't see it ending early enough. Yemen tensions are picking up.

3, Migration is successfully weaponized by a variety of factors and clever maneuvering, causing the majority of people to want a stricter approach.

4, Killing Lefting Populism for Fanatical Corporaistim. Dismissing people's concerns in an aloof way is the usual liberal position that works against them to deflate their vote. Then they try to shame people for not voting their way.

5, The move to the right in part caused by the above, to the point where more and more people cannot align their values with the current political dynamic, and fewer people are represented or they shift right collectively.  if you are not seen as the most supportive of bloodshed in Palestine, or the strongest response to Mexico (bomb Mexico's cartels one Republican suggested), then you are seen in a more negative light or less masculine.

5a, Hero-idealized masculinity (which is not objective reality), when used as a way to govern society, is a fascist trait.

6, Crackdown on protests, are all part of the above chain of democratic self-sabotage among their base.

? Maybe, the perception of being Anti guns, in Ameria is probably a net negative. One of the few things we differ with you on. This is borderline, i'd say it hurts more than helps, but I am less certain.

Hurting the Republicans

1, Policies I'll list two obvious ones. Being fanatically anti-abortion, is a terrible position to take in a liberal democracy.

1a, The constant reference to cutting social security, toward an aging population, is politically stabbing yourself in the foot over and over for no gain. Just stop people doing this, at least till past the election.

2, Crimes of their candidate, and being against the legal system, or traditional conservative institutions. Plays well with a fanatical base, and gives everyone else pause for thought.

3, Trump's narcissism and victim mentality. Accepted by his core base of 25-30%, hated by everyone else. His general words are loved by his base, but these two aspects of Trump are harder to swallow. The victim mentality especially does not play well with right-wingers, why someone doesn't stop him from using that language is probably due to his narcissism.

4, Conspiracy lunacy, and acting the fools. If they just took all QANON from their discussion, and stopped attacking each other, it'd be a huge step in the right direction. Kick the crazies like MTG out of the party, she does nothing good for you at all.

5, Their need to vilify the left rather than liberals, at this point they'd start to pick up actual leftwing votes if they just stopped that language. Sadly its all about appearance for and against the reasoning for not doing. They need to be more unified in the general message, but being selective would divide and conquer an already divided liberal party.

6, Climate Ignorance. I realize it still plays to core support, but for everyone else as they see more and more evidence of it, it looks increasingly foolish.

At the moment Trump wins, we'll see what happens when he's convicted of a few crimes, and if things like Yemen don't turn into a war for the democrats, which seems to be about to happen on some scale. Republicans would have more likely won with a more traditional candidate and by a wider margin. Picking someone who can at least appear respectable, goes a long way with how the average person views the world (sadly).

I realize some of these also help each party, but net it would be a loss. We get some of this in England too so I see it play out here, only of course we are supposedly more civilized - Which is funny, go view an MPs behaving badly House of Commons video for a laugh, it might also make you reflect more positively on your politics, though it looks more fun here. Provided in a spoiler for levity.

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Seems to me they're just short sighted greedy humans and Trump at least says he's the #themtoo candidate.

It seems to me Biden's problems are

1.) War funding

2.) Illegal Immigration

3.) Housing, crime, and drugs

4.) Americans in general are just crybabies and use the government as a scapegoat for their pitiful misery, despite a previous comment this now hurts the incumbents.

I don't think abortion or guns is a leading issue either way, most Americans don't care much either way. Apparently many don't care much about a moron criminal like Trump being President either.

[BlueOak]

@Devin

Yes, Israel is a big one it will certainly deflate the democratic vote, depending on how long it goes on for. However, the cost of living, safety etc is always the primary reason people vote. On whether their own lives are what they consider good or not. Safe, comfortable etc. That's why a lot of effort is put into magnifying or manufacturing causes for fear by whatever party is not in power. - Drugs/Housing/Crime certainly all fit under the fear or comfort feeling people vote on.

I'm not even going to do a comparison because that's not the point. If people feel like they have more money for things, safety, and a level of comfort, they trend toward the status quo. If they don't, they look for change. I can't predict 6 months from now, we'll see.

Abortion was the primary issue the Democrats hit the Republicans with, in this latest round of voting that happened, even Fox was forced to acknowledge for a time it was a dagger in their side. 

This is not a statement of validity, or not, to anyone wanting to challenge it, validity is secondary to propaganda-fueled public perception: If I can say to you, they are coming for social security, your healthcare, and choice whether you have a kid or not, that's a big thing to hit the opposition with. - It is the primary dagger in the republican side currently.

Edited December 19, 2023 by BlueOak

[Devin]

44 minutes ago, BlueOak said:

@Devin

Yes, Israel is a big one it will certainly deflate the democratic vote, depending on how it goes on for. However, the cost of living, safety etc is always the primary reason people vote. On whether their own lives are what they consider good or not. Safe, comfortable etc. That's why a lot of effort is put into magnifying or manufacturing causes for fear by whatever party is not in power. - Drugs/Housing/Crime certainly all fit under the fear or comfort feeling people vote on.

I'm not even going to do a comparison because that's not the point. If people feel like they have more money for things, safety, and a level of comfort, they trend toward the status quo. If they don't, they look for change. I can't predict 6 months from now, we'll see.

Abortion was the primary issue the Democrats hit the Republicans with, in this latest round of voting that happened, even Fox was forced to acknowledge for a time it was a dagger in their side. 

This is not a statement of validity, or not, to anyone wanting to challenge it, validity is secondary to propaganda-fueled public perception: If I can say to you, they are coming for social security, your healthcare, and choice whether you have a kid or not, that's a big thing to hit the opposition with. - It is the primary dagger in the republican side currently.

Yeah, Republicans don't openly discuss cutting Social Security or Medicare, they talk about an " Evergreen Approach" which is cutting it only for the younger generation, of which their voters care nothing about.

Most Americans support Abortion and Gun Control but they're not to the level of election influence. It's the fear machine like you pointed to that drives the vote.

 

[Yimpa]

14 hours ago, Devin said:

Do Americans care that much about the wars?

Not as much as Starbucks.

[Nivsch]

How Nikki Haley is doing?

[Danioover9000]

@Devin

18 hours ago, Devin said:

Is this just because of a delay for feelings about the economy turning around? Why is Trump gaining on his lead in the polls? Do Americans care that much about the wars?

I think it will turn around before long and a few percentage will warm on Biden more, I think there takes some time for it to sink in that we're on a good trajectory. But I'm not a good political thermometer, what's your opinions?

I also can't believe it's Biden and Trump, WTF.

   I feel, intuitively that it'll be close. If Biden is too reckless and Trump is careful with his messaging, then polls will lean more to Trump. As long as Biden doesn't make a mistake that'll effect the polls negatively Biden should win slightly.

[DocWatts]

We're still close to a year a way from the elections, and Dems have electorally overperformed in 2018, 2020, 2022, and 2023. Overt religious extremism (such as abortion bans) and running incompetent, unlikeable candidates seems to be badly hurting the GOP as far as actual elections.

Trump is facing multiple criminal indictments, and a conviction on any one of them could for all intents and purposes put an end to his ability to campaign (even if this ends up being something akin to house arrest, that'd be an end to his Nuremberg-esque rallies).

Which isn't to say that Biden is a shoe in, but the situation likely isn't as dire as the polls will lead you to believe.

Additionally, it's worth keeping in mind that political polls only capture the views of people who are willing to answer a phone call from an unknown number. Generally speaking, this tends to be people with landlines who are older and thus more conservative. As a personal aside, I know very few people under the age of 40 who would actually answer a call from an unknown number.

Edited December 19, 2023 by DocWatts

[Devin]

@DocWatts Really good points I haven't considered.

I don't see a house arrest campaign hurting Trump though, the novelty could really stir his base.

Edited December 19, 2023 by Devin

[DocWatts]

9 minutes ago, Devin said:

@DocWatts Really good points I haven't considered.

I don't see a house arrest campaign hurting Trump though, the novelty could really stir his base.

While a criminal conviction won't deter Trump's MAGA cultists, those folks were already locked in for Trump, regardless of what he does. 

The election is instead going to hinge on what proportion of the other %70 of the country will bother to come out to support Biden and the Dems in the 2024 election.

All signs are that it's going to be a closer election than in 2020, but that's a far cry from predictions that 2024 is going to be a disaster for Dems.

Edited December 19, 2023 by DocWatts