Once again, NATO and US foreign policy have lost a war - this time Ukraine

[Leo Gura]

Putin will never step down. His entire life is tied up with holding that position.

Never forget, Putin's life is on the line every day. This is not a game for him. If he slips up he's dead. This is not the American political system.

Edited December 24, 2023 by Leo Gura

[Bobby_2021]

Now it looks like Russia is making actual progress in Ukraine. Russia will eventually win as the support from the west is dwindling. The real winner in any war is, as usual, the US military industrial complex.

West got what it wanted at the cost of immense causalities. Ship out the old stockpiles. and destabilize the Russian economy. In the long run, Russia had to lose. So lets us just hope for that.

On 17/12/2023 at 5:23 PM, Vrubel said:

Ukraine should have some serious firepower to deter Russia.

But they don't. Now what? 

Edited December 24, 2023 by Bobby_2021

[Devin]

AP News

https://apnews.com › article › nethe...

2 days ago — The Dutch government says it is preparing to give 18 F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine. The announcement Friday is a boost for Kyiv

[BlueOak]

5 hours ago, Bobby_2021 said:

But they don't. Now what? 

Sadly as America has dropped Ukraine, and the EU is not producing enough munitions. I see a few scenarios, not mutually exclusive.

1, Europe needs to provide more in America's place, and increasingly militarize its industries.. This is the reality of American isolationism becoming manifest. Which is difficult in a cost-of-living crisis, one magnified by BRICS actions.
2, Funding for Insurgency fighting within Russian-occupied areas and Russia itself.
3, Increasingly copying Russian tactics using manpower rather than firepower. Horrific for the soldiers and for PR. But PR doesn't matter in a world where Ukraine is fighting Russia on its own.
4, The continuing destabilisation of Ukraine and the flow of refugees out of it, destabilizing the surrounding countries further. - Anti Migration rising up more. Pushing rightwing governments ever more right.
5. America and EU continue to pull apart from each other, which is a definite possibility if Trump aligns further with Putin.
6, Partitioning of Ukraine, I said at the start of the war this was the most likely.
7, An EU army.
8, Preparing for WW3, or at least a large regional war in Europe. That is the historic cycle of this. There is a shift going on if you haven't seen it, across the entire planet.

This is the rightwing view going forward here below. Which is of course WW3. Sure its rightwing propaganda but Americans are not understanding the view here, and frankly the American left is even frustrating me listening to it. Certain countries in Europe might not wait for Putin either. People talk about him being almost invulnerable to assassination, he isn't, but till now the fallout of that would have been worse. Now I don't think it would be.
 

It talks about things you won't have considered. Ukraine's counter-offensive failure will have made Russia doubt NATO's military technology.
The full reaction of America pulling out of NATO as a stabilizing force. I can't keep stressing this enough, as the US becomes more isolationist, it won't be keeping a lid on conflicts, or stopping them from happening anymore. It might even be funding or supporting Europe's enemies.

Edited December 24, 2023 by BlueOak

[Devin]

3 hours ago, BlueOak said:

Sadly as America has dropped Ukraine, and the EU is not producing enough munitions. I see a few scenarios, not mutually exclusive.

1, Europe needs to provide more in America's place, and increasingly militarize its industries.. This is the reality of American isolationism becoming manifest. Which is difficult in a cost-of-living crisis, one magnified by BRICS actions.
2, Funding for Insurgency fighting within Russian-occupied areas and Russia itself.
3, Increasingly copying Russian tactics using manpower rather than firepower. Horrific for the soldiers and for PR. But PR doesn't matter in a world where Ukraine is fighting Russia on its own.
4, The continuing destabilisation of Ukraine and the flow of refugees out of it, destabilizing the surrounding countries further. - Anti Migration rising up more. Pushing rightwing governments ever more right.
5. America and EU continue to pull apart from each other, which is a definite possibility if Trump aligns further with Putin.
6, Partitioning of Ukraine, I said at the start of the war this was the most likely.
7, An EU army.
8, Preparing for WW3, or at least a large regional war in Europe. That is the historic cycle of this. There is a shift going on if you haven't seen it, across the entire planet.

This is the rightwing view going forward here below. Which is of course WW3. Sure its rightwing propaganda but Americans are not understanding the view here, and frankly the American left is even frustrating me listening to it. Certain countries in Europe might not wait for Putin either. People talk about him being almost invulnerable to assassination, he isn't, but till now the fallout of that would have been worse. Now I don't think it would be.
 

It talks about things you won't have considered. Ukraine's counter-offensive failure will have made Russia doubt NATO's military technology.
The full reaction of America pulling out of NATO as a stabilizing force. I can't keep stressing this enough, as the US becomes more isolationist, it won't be keeping a lid on conflicts, or stopping them from happening anymore. It might even be funding or supporting Europe's enemies.

The aid from the U.S. is going to continue, the stall is from political jockeying to get money for our border control. There's overwhelming bipartisan support for the Ukrainian aid.

Europe should definitely attack Russia, this Russia will destabilize the region more going forward than it has in the past. They should overthrow Russia and break it up. It's amazing that they tried to have normalized relations with Russia and Russia still does this, if you don't put down the dog that bites your hand from feeding it you're just a bloody fool.

Edited December 24, 2023 by Devin

[Bobby_2021]

17 minutes ago, Devin said:

Europe should definitely attack Russia, Russia will destabilize the region more going forward than it has in the past. They should overthrow Russia and break it up.

Putin didn't buy them nukes for decoration. 

[Devin]

3 minutes ago, Bobby_2021 said:

Putin didn't buy them nukes for decoration. 

They would assassinate Putin before the attack.

[Karmadhi]

@Leo Gura How come the USA did not get sanctioned nor Bush got an arrest warrant for war crimes while Putin did?

If the conflicts are equivalent as you say

[BlueOak]

6 hours ago, Karmadhi said:

@Leo Gura How come the USA did not get sanctioned nor Bush got an arrest warrant for war crimes while Putin did?

If the conflicts are equivalent as you say

Putin got a warrant for kidnapping kids. 

All the death he's caused he's not being sort for.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court_arrest_warrants_for_Vladimir_Putin_and_Maria_Lvova-Belova
Plenty of allegations against him, but just one crime.

Here is the specifics: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Child_abductions_in_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War

Edited December 24, 2023 by BlueOak

[Devin]

Because everyone that would care enough believed Bush. Most of the world hasn't sanctioned Russia, no one else cares enough.

Edited December 24, 2023 by Devin

[Raze]

At 37 min professor Sachs says he asked the White House to negotiate directly before the war but they refused 

Edited December 31, 2023 by Raze

[Vrubel]

@Raze Standing up to Putin is not warmongering. Even if Russia has its own agenda that might justify an invasion. The system of governance in Russia is so corrupt, backward and mafia-like that no Western actor could take him seriously at face level. In some cases you need balls and make a stand against a crook, this is not war-mongering.   

[Raze]

4 hours ago, Vrubel said:

@Raze Standing up to Putin is not warmongering. Even if Russia has its own agenda that might justify an invasion. The system of governance in Russia is so corrupt, backward and mafia-like that no Western actor could take him seriously at face level. In some cases you need balls and make a stand against a crook, this is not war-mongering.   

It’s absolutely war mongering because it’s purposefully provoking a war and ignoring every chance at avoiding it. Even if you think it’s “justified”, it’s still war mongering.

It’s also just incredibly stupid. All we have done is sacrifice a generation of Ukrainians and let Russia expand. All we had to do was nor let Ukraine into NATO. NATO was never supposed to aggressively expand. 

[Devin]

 

27 minutes ago, Raze said:

It’s absolutely war mongering because it’s purposefully provoking a war and ignoring every chance at avoiding it. Even if you think it’s “justified”, it’s still war mongering.

It’s also just incredibly stupid. All we have done is sacrifice a generation of Ukrainians and let Russia expand. All we had to do was nor let Ukraine into NATO. NATO was never supposed to aggressively expand. 

Putin has the Russian people to answer to, the war being brought to their house changes the conversation about liberating a rural village in Ukraine.

[BlueOak]

31 minutes ago, Raze said:

It’s absolutely war mongering because it’s purposefully provoking a war and ignoring every chance at avoiding it. Even if you think it’s “justified”, it’s still war mongering.

It’s also just incredibly stupid. All we have done is sacrifice a generation of Ukrainians and let Russia expand. All we had to do was nor let Ukraine into NATO. NATO was never supposed to aggressively expand. 

People join NATO for fear of Russian aggression. NATO doesn't go anywhere.

Neutrality was offered to Putin. He rejected it and has ever since put up impossible conditions to meet. Ex: We can't catch the easter bunny and give him to Putin, just like we can't catch non-existent Nazi's in control of the country and give them to Putin.

For a variety of reasons I've already listed, Putin wants to expand to the former USSR borders. Ukraine is in the way of that, as are the Baltics, Moldova, Poland, and Romania.

Edited December 31, 2023 by BlueOak

[BlueOak]

Putin has always been trying to rebuild the USSR. He's been manipulating domestic European politics behind the scenes, using his oil/energy leverage to turn policy his way, and trying to put in power governments loyal to Russia. 

The only difference is one of these governments was pushed too far, and there was a coup in Ukraine which turned into a war. This will not change just because Putin wants it to. We are not in the 1990's, Putin still is, and so we have war because people can't accept then adjust to reality and want to make it different.

[Karmadhi]

On 24/12/2023 at 11:30 PM, BlueOak said:

Putin got a warrant for kidnapping kids. 

All the death he's caused he's not being sort for

So taking kids out of a dangerous warzone and sending them to Russian foster homes by force is worse than murdering kids like Israel does with missles.

Ridiciolous @BlueOak

[BlueOak]

4 hours ago, Karmadhi said:

So taking kids out of a dangerous warzone and sending them to Russian foster homes by force is worse than murdering kids like Israel does with missles.

Ridiciolous @BlueOak

Oh if you want my personal opinion and feeling:

There are a whole host of things I would say Putin should be locked up for. I've seen tanks firing at civilians. Mass graves of those tortured to death. Plenty of people were sexually assaulted by Soldiers in Ukraine. I've seen Russia shelling small boats of civilians trying to rescue others in a flood Russia caused. Russian missiles hitting food lines of hungry people. Russian opening up corridors for residents to flee, then shelling them as they do so. The near daily targeting of commercial areas, residential areas, and a terror campaign that Russia has waged for more than 18 months. Russia is a terrorist state. Its done a universal pardon for all crimes committed in Ukraine, so there are no consequences for anything a Russian soldier does.

I'd just want Putin shot. I also said that on day 1. He's the cause of so much suffering and death, all because his ego is stuck in the 1990's in a fantasy that no longer exists. But we don't get what we want or feel do we. We get what a large amount of people in power will practically allow or can make happen. We can both sit here and hope America lets Israel bear the consequences of their genocidal actions so they stop killing indiscriminately, like we can all hope BRICS allow the Russian economy to collapse so they can't keep fighting wars. - Neither of which is going to happen, because two sides are being drawn up, which is going to lead to increasingly larger wars.

But kidnapping kids from a war zone, keeping them from their families, and then re-educating them to be Russian is about as scummy as it gets. So locking him up for that one day in a political trade, or making Putin's life difficult gets no sympathy from me.

That's if you want my feeling. Not just the practical reality. 

This would be the difference between a stage green me above, and who I am now, someone who sees what I want is nearly irrelevant to the larger picture.

Edited December 31, 2023 by BlueOak

[numbersinarow]

On 12/16/2023 at 1:25 AM, Leo Gura said:

Ukraine put up an amazing fight for its size.

Zelensky has the most cutthroat military in Europe, the biggest country, over 100 billion in aid, an overwhelming amount of NATO troops from other countries, CIA intel... he also didn't last a year without threatening his own allies and threatened to blow up a nuclear facility.

[Karmadhi]

@BlueOak All you say Israel has also done. So I find it double standards.

 

Also shelling civilians like Putin has is a lot worse than kidnapping kids because at least the kids can go back. Dead people cannot. 
I find it weird that BiBi and Putin are not wanted for that

Edited December 31, 2023 by Karmadhi