Once again, NATO and US foreign policy have lost a war - this time Ukraine

[PurpleTree]

8 minutes ago, LSD-Rumi said:

Engaging in war will weaken your economy for years if not decades and will destroy your infrastructure. I don't know How Ukranian leaders saw it as a wise choice not to drop the idea of joining NATO after Putin threatened to invade.

Because they don’t trust putin in any way shape or form so it’s safer for them to be in nato under a nuclear umbrella in their opinion

[BlueOak]

35 minutes ago, LSD-Rumi said:

Engaging in war will weaken your economy for years if not decades and will destroy your infrastructure. I don't know How Ukranian leaders saw it as a wise choice not to drop the idea of joining NATO after Putin threatened to invade.

They did, they offered neutrality, it was rejected. NATO was just one reason of many for the war, several of which i've highlighted but I can break them down again if required.

Its also the reason why there is going to be another war, because pending NATO membership is still just one reason Russian invaded out of a dozen. *Unless Ukraine is in NATO, then its secure.

Edited December 17, 2023 by BlueOak

[LSD-Rumi]

3 hours ago, BlueOak said:

They did, they offered neutrality, it was rejected. NATO was just one reason of many for the war, several of which i've highlighted but I can break them down again if required.

Its also the reason why there is going to be another war, because pending NATO membership is still just one reason Russian invaded out of a dozen. *Unless Ukraine is in NATO, then its secure.

Ukraine offered neutrality? I don't think so. This was Putin's main concern and demand.

[BlueOak]

38 minutes ago, LSD-Rumi said:

Ukraine offered neutrality? I don't think so. This was Putin's main concern and demand.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/30/ukraine-offer-neutrality-meaning-constitution-russia-what-does-neutral-status-country-mean-how-would-it-work

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-offers-neutrality-exchange-nato-style-security-guarantees-russia-talks-2022-03-29/

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/ukraines-zelensky-to-offer-neutrality-declaration-to-russia-for-peace-without-delay

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-zelenskyy-says-ukraine-is-willing-to-consider-declaring-neutrality-and-offer-security-guarantees-to-russia-12576688

Here are articles from less than one month into the war, when the casualties were still relatively low compared to what they are now, but everyone had accepted the reality. Not many people in Ukraine believed Putin would invade, most of Europe didn't, it caught a lot of people by surprise. Not everyone, the US and UK were telling Ukraine they were coming.

Reasons for the war:
1, Southern ports, southern industrial centers, and black sea access.
2, Landbridge to Crimea.
3, Russia's dwindling population crisis. 40 Million people fixes it.
4, Russia needs smaller borders because of the population crisis, and the growing strength of its neighbors requires more manpower there.
5, The diplomatic coup in a former Soviet state.
6, Putin's natural desire to rebuild the USSR. His 8th war to do so.
7, Ukraine's gas supplies.
8, A focus on Imperialism, to divert attention away from a faltering economy.
9, BRICS challenging the west.
10, A way to encourage fuel use globally. Its primary export.
11, At the time, a weak NATO and a Europe that was fracturing. He expected to decapitate the government with special forces, and win fast before they started to care.
12, Putin was fed up with nobody taking him seriously. Ego.
13, An opportunity to smash NATO, it was already weak and fracturing. The pandemic was already straining Europe. This could have had the alliance shatter.
14, More control over the global food market, Ukraine is a big supplier and requires (required) port access.
15, To take Moldova not long after.
16, To secure his energy pipelines to Europe that run through Ukraine, the lifeblood of his economy (at the time).
17, Political opportunism, assuming a liberal America would be weaker. What he doesn't calculate is the liberals act as traditional conservatives these days.
18, His head is filled with conspiracies, and yes men. The pandemic isolated him further, he drank too much of his own propaganda.
19, What good are endless stockpiles of weapons if you don't use them, and demonstrate them to potential buyers?
20, 

The reason the NATO line is used, is because drum roll.

It lets people see him as the victim. Oh woe is me, they are all against us, we need to fight them. Yada Yada, typical fascist line, eternal victims wanting to look like the hero. We must liberate the population! From themselves! Nazi's are coming! etc. Its not just narcissistic or fascist, obviously, but there are strong influences in Russia pushing it fascist or Ruscism/Rashism, and it has bought into a lot of these. The level of suppression in Russia is higher than its ever been in my lifetime.

There is certainly a practical consideration for keeping people off their borders and missiles away from their territory, but nobody was going to give Ukraine missiles or much beyond infantry weapons, now instead they have a country full of them.

Edited December 17, 2023 by BlueOak

[Starlight321]

6 minutes ago, BlueOak said:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/30/ukraine-offer-neutrality-meaning-constitution-russia-what-does-neutral-status-country-mean-how-would-it-work

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-offers-neutrality-exchange-nato-style-security-guarantees-russia-talks-2022-03-29/

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/ukraines-zelensky-to-offer-neutrality-declaration-to-russia-for-peace-without-delay

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-zelenskyy-says-ukraine-is-willing-to-consider-declaring-neutrality-and-offer-security-guarantees-to-russia-12576688

Here are articles from less than one month into the war, when the casualties were still relatively low compared to what they are now, but everyone had accepted the reality. Not many people in Ukraine believed Putin would invade, most of Europe didn't, it caught a lot of people by surprise. Not everyone, the US and UK were telling Ukraine they were coming.

Reasons for the war:
1, Southern ports, southern industrial centers, and black sea access.
2, Landbridge to Crimea.
3, Russia's dwindling population crisis. 40 Million people fixes it.
4, Russia needs smaller borders because of the population crisis, and the growing strength of its neighbors requires more manpower there.
5, The diplomatic coup in a former Soviet state.
6, Putin's natural desire to rebuild the USSR. His 8th war to do so.
7, Ukraine's gas supplies.
8, A focus on Imperialism, to divert attention away from a faltering economy.
9, BRICS challenging the west.
10, A way to encourage fuel use globally. Its primary export.
11, At the time, a weak NATO and a Europe that was fracturing. He expected to decapitate the government with special forces, and win fast before they started to care.
12, Putin was fed up with nobody taking him seriously. Ego.
13, An opportunity to smash NATO, it was already weak and fracturing. The pandemic was already straining Europe. This could have had the alliance shatter.
14, More control over the global food market, Ukraine is a big supplier and requires (required) port access.
15, To take Moldova not long after.
16, To secure his energy pipelines to Europe that run through Ukraine, the lifeblood of his economy (at the time).
17, Political opportunism, assuming a liberal America would be weaker. What he doesn't calculate is the liberals act as traditional conservatives these days.
18, His head is filled with conspiracies, and yes men. The pandemic isolated him further, he drank too much of his own propaganda.
19, What good are endless stockpiles of weapons if you don't use them, and demonstrate them to potential buyers?
20, 

The reason the NATO line is used, is because drum roll.

It lets people see him as the victim. Oh woe is me, they are all against us, we need to fight them. Yada Yada, typical fascist line, eternal victims wanting to look like the hero. We must liberate the population! From themselves! Nazi's are coming! etc. Its not just narcissistic or fascist, obviously, but there are strong influences in Russia pushing it fascist or Ruscism/Rashism, and it has bought into a lot of these. The level of suppression in Russia is higher than its ever been in my lifetime.

There is certainly a practical consideration for keeping people off their borders and missiles away from their territory, but nobody was going to give Ukraine missiles or much beyond infantry weapons, now instead they have a country full of them.

I think that qas the peace deal which the us undermined as maersheimer told.

[BlueOak]

18 minutes ago, Starlight321 said:

I think that qas the peace deal which the us undermined as maersheimer told.

What I quoted was 1 month afterward, coming from Ukraine, when they realized the reality of the situation and Russia's commitment to it.

Previous to this neutrality offer, it was a matter of trust. Nobody in Eastern Europe extends Russia much trust, because of the history of violence both overt and covert, and the fear that is there. Maersheimer and Breaking points are idiots. Sorry. I'm a lefty also on many things, but they talk like children in black and white. They still to this day can't understand Eastern European fear or resentment toward Russia, which now is hatred. Breaking points talk about it like some kind of business competition or friend you've fallen out with. Not a country or opponent with centuries of terrorizing their countries, and now hundreds of thousands dead.

Oh just come together and sing Kumbaya. Breaking points dismiss all the things Ukraine achieved, which was huge given their opponent. They are NOT in a worse place, than Russia ruling over their country again, not for the people living there. That's why the coup happened in the first place, it's not magically more suited to being ruled by Russia just because Putin wants it to be.

Maersheimer cannot ever give you more than half of the truth. He can't see that people joined NATO, NATO didn't come to them. He can't tell you its a collection of voices, not one voice. Same with Putin, because Russia is unable to perceive what a collection of leaders or a multi-polar governance means. He can only understand one voice ruling not many. They joined out of fear of Russia, something no Russian apologist i've ever spoken to or seen can acknowledge. It's like there is a mental block in them. Why do people join NATO, I dunno, just because one day they fell over and ended up in NATO I guess, nothing to do with anyone else's actions, no consequences to anything anyone does, because everyone lives in a vacuum.

Edited December 17, 2023 by BlueOak

[LSD-Rumi]

@BlueOak @BlueOak Wow, nice analysis, thanks. This challenges a lot of assumptions I had.

[Starlight321]

1 hour ago, BlueOak said:

What I quoted was 1 month afterward, coming from Ukraine, when they realized the reality of the situation and Russia's commitment to it.

Previous to this neutrality offer, it was a matter of trust. Nobody in Eastern Europe extends Russia much trust, because of the history of violence both overt and covert, and the fear that is there. Maersheimer and Breaking points are idiots. Sorry. I'm a lefty also on many things, but they talk like children in black and white. They still to this day can't understand Eastern European fear or resentment toward Russia, which now is hatred. Breaking points talk about it like some kind of business competition or friend you've fallen out with. Not a country or opponent with centuries of terrorizing their countries, and now hundreds of thousands dead.

Oh just come together and sing Kumbaya. Breaking points dismiss all the things Ukraine achieved, which was huge given their opponent. They are NOT in a worse place, than Russia ruling over their country again, not for the people living there. That's why the coup happened in the first place, it's not magically more suited to being ruled by Russia just because Putin wants it to be.

Maersheimer cannot ever give you more than half of the truth. He can't see that people joined NATO, NATO didn't come to them. He can't tell you its a collection of voices, not one voice. Same with Putin, because Russia is unable to perceive what a collection of leaders or a multi-polar governance means. He can only understand one voice ruling not many. They joined out of fear of Russia, something no Russian apologist i've ever spoken to or seen can acknowledge. It's like there is a mental block in them. Why do people join NATO, I dunno, just because one day they fell over and ended up in NATO I guess, nothing to do with anyone else's actions, no consequences to anything anyone does, because everyone lives in a vacuum.

Yes, I agree with you on the part of the right of the ukrainian people to choose their own course of course and that the many reasons behind russia's invasion you've mentioned. 

However I think survival play by far the biggest reason for the war and russia defenetively felt threatened by nato and putin declared that openly for almost 15 years. 

Maersheimer's pov is partial I agree, but he's teaching meta knowledge about how power structurs behind play out which is important to understand how geopolitics has always worked.

Also the reason I mentioned why the peace deal of march 2022 hasn't worked out was to point out the fact that it is also the wests responsibility that people are still dying uneccesarily because the allies declined.

On the other hand russia pretty much fucked up in spring and summer 2022 and there was a small but realistic chance of beating russia and the ukrainians did a good job standing up.

However, we are were we are and we should support ukraine and enable them a better peace deal as proposed by putin a few days ago.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/14/vladimir-putin-peace-russia-ukraine-president

Edited December 17, 2023 by Starlight321

[BlueOak]

@Starlight321

I agree I don't acknowledge the fear of survival or change in Russia as much as I should. 

A long time ago I said that part of the reason people don't understand the Russian perspective is because it's kept private. They are not a culture prone to speaking about it openly and honestly with strangers. They almost do the opposite and prefer privacy and secrecy, at least that is my experience. So what happens is people blunder all the time in dealing with Russia, and sometimes it helps Russia and sometimes it hinders them.

Here almost nobody knew or believed that Russia would invade, so that ambiguity in negotiation hurt them a lot.

I also want to apologize I shouldn't have pushed back so hard on Maersheimer's perspective, people need to be told NATO's expansion was a factor in the war, one of many, they need to realize their own agency in what's happening too. I've just heard it so much used as a justification for mass violence and terror.

Edited December 17, 2023 by BlueOak

[martins name]

Almost no one knows the biggest reason for the war. The biggest reason is Putins belief in the color revolution conspiracy theory. Putin has said so to Obama and his aids for example. Many people believe in it in Putins administration, including Sergey Glazyev, who was in charge of integrating Ukraine into Russian institutions. It also has some traction among the American left, such as with Jimmy Dore. 

A closer look at this conspiracy theory reveals how fucking crazy it is. Basically the American deep state have funded pro democracy NGOs in Ukraine by a tune of around 3 million dollars and this was enough to overthrow the whole government. Also George Soros is a CIA puppet who is in on the plan. It's all explained in such detail in this video that it's a god damn piece of art.

@Leo GuraThis is such a core piece of the puzzle to understand the conflict and almost no one knows about it. The people in pod save America does, which might make this more plausible in your eyes since you hold them in esteem. Their testemony as Obama aids is in the vid. The vid is long and takes some time to get to the point but is extremely well produced and researched to the point of almost being art. You might want to check it out, you will love it.

[BlueOak]

@Starlight321
Reading your link. Ukraine will never be demilitarized.

Think about that. Russia has bombed it to oblivion, killed many tens of thousands of civilians, hundreds of thousands of people total. Done every conceivable horror I've ever witnessed in war, I saw some truly horrific things. Deported, tortured, force conscripted, aand now they say just put down your guns, you can trust us. Despite the fact they assassinate or imprison anyone who disagrees with them, which is the entire country at this point.

There are more guns there than there ever was or will be, that isn't going to change even if the Ukranian government wanted it, its an impossible ask. As for Denazification that is a conspiracy that doesn't exist, and so is impossible to achieve. How can you do something that is purely in Russian fantasy?

Putin has given impossible goals, that can never happen even if people wanted it to, so he doesn't have to make peace.

Then Ukraine's surrender, that's not happening either, for all the reasons i've listed. He's spent 18 months bombing the population and uniting everyone against him, I don't really think he wants peace. He wants an extended war so Ukraine cannot join NATO.

 

Edited December 18, 2023 by BlueOak

[Devin]

I see Putin as destroying Russia, not Ukraine.

 

Foreign Policy

foreignpolicy.com

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/09/07/putin-geopolitical-setback-armenia-south-caucasus-nagorno-karabakh-ukraine/

Ukraine War Fallout: Putin Loses Ground in South Caucasus

Putin Faces Geopolitical Setback in South Caucasus

Armenia turns toward West after accusing Russia of failing as a partner.

Sep 7, 2023 — For years, Armenia prioritized its relationship with Russia, mainly because it was the only game in town for security on Nagorno-Karabakh. But ..

Edited December 18, 2023 by Devin

[Raze]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/15/world/europe/ukraine-military-recruitment.html

[Devin]

1 hour ago, Raze said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/15/world/europe/ukraine-military-recruitment.html

Do you support the Russian occupation of Chechnya?

[Mandrake]

Here's a good analysis of Mearsheimer's interview - starts in the second part of the video
 

 

[bebotalk]

Whether NATO won in Afghanistan is moot. It did technically, in that it stopped it being a haven for anti-American terrorism. The Taliban coming back was on the provision that it didin't harbour terrorists. 

[Breakingthewall]

This documentary is interesting, It is from 2016 and predicts quite well what happened, Biden's involvement and gives an interesting description of Ukrainian nationalism. Includes an extensive interview with Putin and Lukashenko.

Edited December 23, 2023 by Breakingthewall

[Devin]

Russia does not look to be doing well to me.

"In 2008, the country’s GDP per capita was 11% higher than in Poland and 26% higher than in Turkey, according to World Bank numbers. In 2022 it was 35% and 32% lower, respectively."

 

You can see even the 2014 sanctions are killing them. I'm optimistic we will see Putin leaving the thrown soon, I'm hopeful they get a more intelligent leader and the first world will see peace and prosperity.

Edited December 23, 2023 by Devin

[Leo Gura]

6 hours ago, Devin said:

I'm optimistic we will see Putin leaving the thrown soon

Not happening.

50% of Russians are brainwashed by nationalism and state media propaganda.

This is like expecting W Bush to be overthrown for the Iraq war.

This is Russia's Iraq.

Edited December 24, 2023 by Leo Gura

[Devin]

12 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

Not happening.

50% of Russians are brainwashed by nationalism and state media propaganda.

Do you not see any way he would step down? 'Retire', after all of the fallout from this? There has to be pressure on him, Russia was too intermingled with the West for there not to be some Oligarchs that see the light. Prigozhin had to smell an opportunity somewhere for him to mutiny.

Edited December 24, 2023 by Devin