Once again, NATO and US foreign policy have lost a war - this time Ukraine

[Raze]

The military industrial complex has no bounds for its failures. In just our life time it had us invade Iraq, a country that had not attacked nor threatened to attack us, all we accomplished was massively increasing terrorism and Iran’s influence. It has us occupy Afghanistan, only to replace the Taliban with a much stronger Taliban. Not to mention toppling Gadafi and massively expanding civil wars like in Syria. 

And now Ukraine. The best time to end the Ukraine war was the beginning. When Russia’s initial invasion failed, all we would have to do is have Ukraine offer to give Russia the border areas with majority ethnic Russians (who probably want to join Russia anyway), and not join NATO. Russia reeling from seeing just how unprepared and incompetent its military was, with no idea how much support NATO could give Ukraine, would probably have agreed and ended the war then.

But instead the US repeatedly blocked negotiations, NATO arbitrarily declared the war aim to be to completely drive Russia out, and anyone who disagreed was called a Russian shill. Meanwhile no actual plan or timeline for victory was presented. 

https://www.peoplesworld.org/article/u-s-repeatedly-blocked-ukraine-peace-deals-is-it-rethinking-its-strategy-yet/
 

So what is the current situation?

1) Russia is arguably even stronger now and more motivated to continue the war. Their military budget has swollen to a huge amount and their personal is over a million and set to expand. They’ve made deals with other countries to bypass sanctions and send weapons and supplies. Thanks to the heavy sanctions Russia is only staying afloat because Putin can tell his population he’s defending them from the west and giving them jobs and pensions for the military. His rule is at more risk if the war ends if anything.

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2023/11/30/putin-seems-to-be-winning-the-war-in-ukraine-for-now

 

2) the US already allocated over 100 billion for Ukraine and is having difficulty in congress to send more. The rate of Americans supporting sending aid is lowering. 
 

3) Ukraine has lost so many men the average soldier is over 40 years old now. They’re going to start drafting the elderly and women at this rate.

https://www.businessinsider.com/average-age-ukrainian-soldier-43-amid-personnel-problems-2023-11?amp

 

In summation, once again our leaders have completely incompetently wasted hundreds of billions of dollars and hundreds of thousands of lives to just make the situation worse…

They will probably have to move towards negotiations when it is clear this can’t continue , but the negotiation position is awful now, it’s possible Russia will demand most of Ukraine if he’ll even negotiate at all, Putin now sees he can get away with losing immense amounts of men to no internal backlash and can probably outlast NATO.

The fact that the US citizens still are electing Iraq war supporters and have done nothing to reel in money in politics or the military industrial complex after these constant disasters just shows a level of apathy that is insane. I don’t even want to think about what kind of disaster they will lead us into if China goes to war with Taiwan or Israel goes to war with Iran.

Edited December 15, 2023 by Raze

[martins name]

Does your analysis take precedence into consideration? Russia has learned that they can inch their way forward military with Georgia and Crimea. Why would they ever stop if it isn't painful?

[BlueOak]

Appeasement with fascists doesn't work. A fascist government requires war to function. Had the US done nothing, Eastern Europe likely would have at the start, with refugees pouring over their borders, threats flying from Russia, a state of panic in Europe, we could have been in WW3. As a European I felt that was a distinct possibility at the start of this, and I was grateful America stepped up to help secure Europe. This way a unified stance was taken, not unilateral action, and a restrained policy of noninterventionism but instead indirect support. It was a shame other countries allowed Russia to bypass sanctions as it encouraged them to continue, but we live in an imperfect world. - At the very start of this I said the likely outcome, with military support, was some loss of territory. - Without support, I would have said the losses would have been total, with a possibility of the conflict expanding.

You seem to forget Putin dropped troops trying to take the capital, he wanted the entire country. Russia was pushed out of Kyiv, out of Sumy, out of Kherson, and out of Kharkiv, and that came because of Western support and the blood and sweat of Ukranians dying for their country. The fact they have not been able to breach dug in Russian lines, while lacking air superiority, doesn't negate everything that happened to that point. Sadly, America  and European artillery support started to dry up and the war of attrition now favors Russia as a result.

1) Russia is significantly weaker, diplomatically economically, and militarily. CSAT almost ripped itself apart. They've lost their biggest customers for their Energy products, run their surplus money to nothing, and further weakened their already problematic population dynamic by killing off or crippling a lot of their young men, and causing a lot more to leave the country. Their economy is in bad shape by any indicator you want to measure. They've lost the people they need to train their army for example, most of the skilled workers that could got the hell out of Russia, and they've taken some significant airpower losses, run through their surplus tanks and arms which they relied on in part to intimidate others (and sell).

They won't be launching another war for a couple of decades because of their losses. The Baltics and Poland will not be invaded. It has deterred China for a time as well. It certainly woke up Europe that we can't trust or get comfortable with Russia as we used to, relying on them as our dominant energy supplier. I saw a lot of their actions as they happened on the ground, and will never look at Russia the same way again. After the war on civilians, all the threats, the clandestine actions, all the lies, it caused a lot of Europe to remilitarize somewhat, Poland certainly, and even Germany and others to an extent, which has increased our security. When Ukraine now joins NATO, there will be peace, unless people too wrapped in fear prevent it, and so we do all this again in 10-15 years.

It united NATO and Europe like nothing i've ever seen in my lifetime, NATO gained 2 new members over it. Money was not wasted at all. It was brutal but Ukraine retained control of their country, despite all Putin's efforts to undermine and destroy it.

If we go back in previous decades, missiles or drones landing in other countries started wars. But because we had a unified position of strength, nobody broke ranks on that. Europe held together and that was in no small part due to America being with us. 

Edited December 15, 2023 by BlueOak

[Devin]

NATO nor the U.S. are at war. Ukraine is of no consequence to either, what is though is the weakening of Russia and their support on the Global stage. 

This is for NATO to have a better negotiating hand for Global Nuclear disarmament.

Chess, not Checkers.

[Raze]

6 minutes ago, Devin said:

NATO nor the U.S. are at war. Ukraine is of no consequence to either, what is though is the weakening of Russia and their support on the Global stage. 

This is for NATO to have a better negotiating hand for Global Nuclear disarmament.

Chess, not Checkers.

So they sacrificed an entire generation of Ukrainians to drive Russia closer to China

[Leo Gura]

Russia has lost over 300,000 troops.

Ukraine put up an amazing fight for its size. But Ukraine can only do so much given the size disparity.

Edited December 16, 2023 by Leo Gura

[Raze]

20 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

Russia has lost over 300,000 troops.

Ukraine put up an amazing fight for its size. But Ukraine can only do so much given the size disparity.

Yeah and they drafted a million more. So what was the point?

[BlueOak]

18 minutes ago, Raze said:

Yeah and they drafted a million more. So what was the point?

I just gave you 50 points in a long post.

Things don't end perfectly in a fairytale ending. 

[Devin]

2 hours ago, Raze said:

So they sacrificed an entire generation of Ukrainians to drive Russia closer to China

You think the U.S. took over Ukraine? No one sacrificed them.

No, to de-nuclearize the world, Russia is the only formidable agitator about it. The U.S. Defense budget is one of the largest budget line items, almost the entire deficit alone, a de-nuclearized world would greatly shrink that and the war will pay for itself over.

Edited December 16, 2023 by Devin

[Leo Gura]

On the other hand, what do you want? To let Putin annex a whole country with no resistance?

And don't blame this primarily on the US. Ukrainians themselves want to fight Putin because the force of nationalism is very potent.

Edited December 16, 2023 by Leo Gura

[Raze]

1 hour ago, Leo Gura said:

Russia has lost over 300,000 troops.

Ukraine put up an amazing fight for its size. But Ukraine can only do so much given the size disparity.

Ukraine was open to negotiations but the US blocked it.

NATO shouldn’t have made their objective something they couldn’t reasonably explain a plan to do. They should have tactical applied pressure to negotiate in the best possible position to end the war as soon as possible. 

[Devin]

12 minutes ago, Raze said:

Ukraine was open to negotiations but the US blocked it.

Have a reference? Google is coming up short.

Quote

NATO shouldn’t have made their objective something they couldn’t reasonably explain a plan to do. They should have tactical applied pressure to negotiate in the best possible position to end the war as soon as possible. 

NATO has no allegiance to Ukraine, their dog in the fight is weakening Russia, which they've done splendidly without breaking a nail. It's better for NATO the longer the war lasts.

Edited December 16, 2023 by Devin

[Leo Gura]

1 hour ago, Devin said:

Have a reference? Google is coming up short.

There are credible reports that the US tanked a peace deal.

The US definitely cares more about weakening Russia than it does about saving Ukrainian lives.

Quote

NATO has no allegiance to Ukraine, their dog in the fight is weakening Russia, which they've done splendidly.

It's not clear how much Russia has been weakened. In a sense Russia might be stronger despite the loss of lives because they have been forced to become more self-reliant as an economy and to ally closer with China and other authoritarian regimes. Also, the land, ports, and natural resources that Russia gains from annexing land strengthens their geopolitical position and economy.

- - - - - -

There's not really a good solution here. That's the problem. It's not at all clear what kind of peace Putin would agree to. He could agree to a peace and then attack again whenever he senses an opportunity.

Allowing Putin to get away easily with annexation also sets a bad precedent. What if he wants to annex Moldova next?

In the end I think Ukrainians have to decide whether they want to fight or not, without being pressured by the West.

Edited December 16, 2023 by Leo Gura

[How to be wise]

2 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

Russia has lost over 300,000 troops.

Ukraine put up an amazing fight for its size. But Ukraine can only do so much given the size disparity.

It was a mistake for the US to fund Ukraine, thereby prolonging this conflict. The priority should’ve been to end the war, even if it means Russia gaining territory.

[How to be wise]

8 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

Allowing Putin to get away easily with annexation also sets a bad precedent. What if he wants to annex Moldova next?

It’s not our job to police the world. The West should focus on protecting nato, and making it clear to Putin that nato will protect itself. Other than that, let Russia do whatever it wants to do.

[Raze]

24 minutes ago, Devin said:

 

NATO has no allegiance to Ukraine, their dog in the fight is weakening Russia, which they've done splendidly without breaking a nail. It's better for NATO the longer the war lasts.

1. That’s not what NATO said was their official war aim, also that’s incredibly unethical.

2. I don’t even think it weakened Russia. The military is larger than ever and now battle hardened. Putin has made enough work arounds with other countries like Turkey to get around sanctions. Now Russia is far more motivated to move closer to China. 

3. this was exactly the logic of US support for afghan rebels during the soviet afghan war, literally just to send them weapons and money to kill Russians. And look how that ended up. 

[Devin]

7 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

There are credible reports that the US tanked a peace deal.

The US is definitely cares more about weakening Russia than it does about saving Ukrainian lives.

It's not clear how much Russia has been weakened. In a sense Russia might be stronger despite the loss of lives because they have been forced to become more self-reliant as an economy and to ally closer with China and other authoritarian regimes.

Finland joining NATO is very significant.

The political and psychological elements from Russia stumbling to overtake Eastern Ukraine with a full scale invasion is likely to hamper even Putin's future ambitions, which puts him more on defense, i.e. global de-nuclearization.

I don't follow people's concerns with China and Iran, the only reason the U.S. has interest with Iran is for oil market stability and the Suez Canal. China doesn't concern me in the least, I think Xi is quite intelligent and peaceful.

[Leo Gura]

1 hour ago, How to be wise said:

It’s not our job to police the world. Other than that, let Russia do whatever it wants to do.

That sounds good in theory but in practice you might live to regret such a policy.

Geopolitics is too complicated and intertangled to just allow one large country to gobble up another large country without any pushback. If you just let Russia run amok it will build itself into an empire and spread its corruption around the world like a virus. Look at Dugin's gameplan. It basically leads to civilizational war between the West and Eur-Asia.

Edited December 16, 2023 by Leo Gura

[Devin]

26 minutes ago, Raze said:

1. That’s not what NATO said was their official war aim, also that’s incredibly unethical.

Lol, so what?

26 minutes ago, Raze said:

2. I don’t even think it weakened Russia. The military is larger than ever and now battle hardened. Putin has made enough work arounds with other countries like Turkey to get around sanctions. Now Russia is far more motivated to move closer to China. 

China isn't a concern, they want peace and prosperity.

26 minutes ago, Raze said:

3. this was exactly the logic of US support for afghan rebels during the soviet afghan war, literally just to send them weapons and money to kill Russians. And look how that ended up. 

It ended the Soviet Union.

[Devin]

What are the alleged details of the U.S. nixing a Ukraine-Russia deal? I'm not finding anything on Google.