Respectfully disagreeing with Leo about Crypto

[BlessedLion]

On 6/5/2024 at 9:12 PM, Twentyfirst said:

If you think BTC is dead. Then you do not understand BTC

 

I’m with this guy and Dodo. You guys are wrong about crypto. Of course no one knows the future. But crypto is actually pretty solid. It’s fixing to pop 

[FourCrossedWands]

It's always the same scenario. A bankrupting opportunist billionaire buys Bitcoin and starts promoting it. Be it Elon Musk, Michael Saylor, you name them.

If Bitcoin was so good, it wouldn't need such an excessive promotion.

99,9% of population ignores Bitcoin completely and will never use it even it jumped from the toilet and bitten their ass, lol.

The only reason Bitcoin goes up is because the same people has been buying it for the last 5-10 years. There has been zero progress in the mainstream adoption for the last 5-10 years.

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today 5-y&q=bitcoin

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today 5-y&q=Buy bitcoin

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today 5-y&q=Buy bitcoin,Buy usd,Buy gold,Buy silver

Edited July 18 by FourCrossedWands

[Leo Gura]

3 hours ago, BlessedLion said:

What makes you say this though? I’m not seeing this narrative anywhere else. 

Every serious trader knows that the current market is overheating and due for a major downturn. People are buying up stocks like fools. The PE ratios are all high. There are no cheap buys. Every major tech stock is at its all time peaks. This is not the time to be buying, this is the time to be selling.

Google, Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Apple -- all have hit their all time peaks just recently. All are looking overpriced. None of them are good buys now. It's 10% upside 90% downside.

If you don't understand this you should not be investing in stocks because you will lose your pants.

And when these peaking tech stocks crash, which they soon will, Bitcoin will crash with them, as it always has. Then is when to buy Bitcoin.

Your whole strategy is backwards.

Edited July 18 by Leo Gura

[r0ckyreed]

4 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

Every serious trader knows that the current market is overheating and due for a major downturn. People are buying up stocks like fools. The PE ratios are all high. There are no cheap buys. Every major tech stock is at its all time peaks. This is not the time to be buying, this is the time to be selling.

Google, Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Apple -- all have hit their all time peaks just recently. All are looking overpriced. None of them are good buys now. It's 10% upside 90% downside.

If you don't understand this you should not be investing in stocks because you will lose your pants.

And when these peaking tech stocks crash, which they soon will, Bitcoin will crash with them, as it always has. Then is when to buy Bitcoin.

Your whole strategy is backwards.

I do dollar cost averaging of $500 per month into Vanguard Total Stock Market. I invest in the whole Stock Market rather than in individual stocks. I set it and forget it. 

Edited July 18 by r0ckyreed

[Leo Gura]

27 minutes ago, r0ckyreed said:

I do dollar cost averaging of $500 per month into Vanguard Total Stock Market. I invest in the whole Stock Market rather than in individual stocks. I set it and forget it. 

Sure, you can do that. Although that isn't optimal. Investing into a way overpriced market isn't smart. You could invest that $500 into gold.

Gold looks like the best investment right now to me.

Edited July 18 by Leo Gura

[OBEler]

4 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

Every serious trader knows that the current market is overheating and due for a major downturn. People are buying up stocks like fools. The PE ratios are all high. There are no cheap buys. Every major tech stock is at its all time peaks. This is not the time to be buying, this is the time to be selling.

Google, Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Apple -- all have hit their all time peaks just recently. All are looking overpriced. None of them are good buys now. It's 10% upside 90% downside.

If you don't understand this you should not be investing in stocks because you will lose your pants.

And when these peaking tech stocks crash, which they soon will, Bitcoin will crash with them, as it always has. Then is when to buy Bitcoin.

Your whole strategy is backwards.

You don't want to sell Bitcoin now because you will miss the upcoming bullrun.

Yes the market will crash but not now, maybe in one or two years. Enough time to sell Bitcoin at its peak.

[Leo Gura]

56 minutes ago, OBEler said:

You don't want to sell Bitcoin now because you will miss the upcoming bullrun.

Yes the market will crash but not now, maybe in one or two years. Enough time to sell Bitcoin at its peak.

Timing its peak will be very hard. It's easier to buy it when it's low. Once all the big tech stocks crash, Bitcoin will be cheap to buy.

You have no idea when a Bitcoin bull run will happen. But you know the big tech stocks will have a major correction.

Edited July 18 by Leo Gura

[hundreth]

6 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

Every serious trader knows that the current market is overheating and due for a major downturn. People are buying up stocks like fools. The PE ratios are all high. There are no cheap buys. Every major tech stock is at its all time peaks. This is not the time to be buying, this is the time to be selling.

Google, Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Apple -- all have hit their all time peaks just recently. All are looking overpriced. None of them are good buys now. It's 10% upside 90% downside.

If you don't understand this you should not be investing in stocks because you will lose your pants.

And when these peaking tech stocks crash, which they soon will, Bitcoin will crash with them, as it always has. Then is when to buy Bitcoin.

Your whole strategy is backwards.

I actually believe the opposite.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/15/powell-indicates-fed-wont-wait-until-inflation-is-down-to-2percent-before-cutting-rates.html

Quote

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Monday that the central bank will not wait until inflation hits 2% to cut interest rates.

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/traders-see-favorable-odds-fed-rate-cut-september-rcna162141?ref=biztoc.com

Quote

There are now 93.3% odds that the Fed’s target range for the federal funds rate, its key rate, will be lowered by a quarter percentage point to 5% to 5.25% in September from the current 5.25% to 5.50%, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

This is what is driving the current bull market. Investors know that the Fed is going to cut interest rates no matter what, flushing cash into our already inflated economy. Is this the right thing to do? No... But they are doing it anyways.

Why are they doing it? It is political. September cuts drive the economy and stocks higher just before the elections in an attempt to keep Biden in office.

What happens if Trump gets elected? More of the same. Trump said he would fire the Fed chair to put a new one in place that will lower rates for him. Why? Because Trump only cares about the short term. He wants to see those Dow Jones numbers pop.

Is this all ultimately good for the economy? NO. What will happen? More wealth will be transferred to the already wealthy.

When will the markets actually begin to crash and correct for this? Probably some time mid way through Trump's next term... but it isn't going to be now.

We just went through a couple of years of high interest rates. This WAS the recession. A still highly inflationary period which will only be ramped up now.

[OBEler]

41 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

Timing its peak will be very hard. It's easier to buy it when it's low. Once all the big tech stocks crash, Bitcoin will be cheap to buy.

You have no idea when a Bitcoin bull run will happen. But you know the big tech stocks will have a major correction.

It will happen 2025. Like last cycles. If not then the tech market crushed before.

[PsychedelicEagle]

3 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

Sure, you can do that. Although that isn't optimal. Investing into a way overpriced market isn't smart. You could invest that $500 into gold.

Gold looks like the best investment right now to me.

Many experts advocate against investing in Gold:

1. It has been shown to be a volatile asset over the very long run. You can buy it right now and within 2 decades have 50% of your starting purchasing power. Imagine you had invested in Gold in 1980. It would have taken you more than 30 years to recover to the inflation-adjusted price.
2. Gold is also overpriced right now if you look at the historical inflation-adjusted price. Why do you think it's a good investment?
3. Gold as an asset does not create value, whereas there are thousands of companies all over the world with low PE ratios creating value to (and therefore profiting from) people. Why not invest in those ones instead?

Edited July 18 by PsychedelicEagle

[nerdspeak]

If you think we're due for a correction and want to position yourself, then switch to short-term treasury funds or money markets, wait for everything to drop and then buy. I did this in March 2020 and made a lot. 

I'm starting to do this again now although I'm not as bearish as Leo overall. The multiples are high but there are various factors that favor stocks.

• The shift from manufacturing to services means there will be more local monopolies and oligopolies that achieve higher returns than manufacturing-centric firms that operate in a competitive global market 
• AI is a bubble, but it's a good tool for labor discipline and keeping wages low. Managers will threaten replacement of course, eventually the workers will realize it's a bluff. However, even when that happens, while it's bad at doing most work, it's good for employee surveillance. 
• If Trump is elected, he will do some populist gestures but his financial base is regional capital and extractive industries (rather than the big banks and tech that donate to Biden) so he will likely at least try to give another corporate tax cut, which of course will boost earning and thus stock prices
• If Trump is elected he will continue to press the Fed to keep interest rates low which will prop the market up 
• If Biden is elected, a lot of the infrastructure investment and onshoring he's been pushing for will boost earnings in the short term 

Basically, the S&P is a bit overpriced based on P/E ratios, but we also don't really know what's going to happen. There is so much political involvement, that basically by buying and holding you’re just betting on US empire continuing.

You can keep buying S&P 500 or total market index fund now as long as you plan to keep buying it after it drops so you also buy equal amounts at the bottom. For most people this works better than trying to actively invest. 

All this said, anyone prudent must avoid putting themselves in a position where they are forced to sell at the bottom. Bear in mind, if we get a 2020 or 2008 type of big drop -- which wlll happen quite soon, in the next 1-5 years --you'll quite possibly also become unemployed or otherwise suffer a big hit to your income -- which might force you to sell stock to meet basic expenses. 

So you want at least 6-12 months of savings in something like money markets or T-bills -- they pay like 5% it's not that bad. 

Don't try to be a genius and pick individual stocks. Professionals from MIT and Wharton are spending 16 hours per day doing this. It's like challenging a pro boxer to fight and betting money on it. 

Even timing the market the way I do, is pretty dicey -- I've been wrong before and sold too early and missed a couple years of good returns in the mid 2010s. I would have probably had better overall returns doing the automated index fund route although I would always keep $40-50k liquid and unexposed. If that's out of reach for you, then really you shouldn't be investing and should focus on making more money at your job. 

Edited July 18 by nerdspeak

[FourCrossedWands]

2 hours ago, PsychedelicEagle said:

Many experts advocate against investing in Gold:

1. It has been shown to be a volatile asset over the very long run. You can buy it right now and within 2 decades have 50% of your starting purchasing power. Imagine you had invested in Gold in 1980. It would have taken you more than 30 years to recover to the inflation-adjusted price.
2. Gold is also overpriced right now if you look at the historical inflation-adjusted price. Why do you think it's a good investment?
3. Gold as an asset does not create value, whereas there are thousands of companies all over the world with low PE ratios creating value to (and therefore profiting from) people. Why not invest in those ones instead?

Why not buy both? Have some physical gold and also invest in low PE dividend stocks. Those that hold really well even during a recession (McDonald's, Walmart, etc.)

[Dodo]

Everything is on the same boat. Stocks, Gold, Crypto, all should be falling in the forseeable future, as the fat cats love their dollar.

[BlessedLion]

13 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

Every serious trader knows that the current market is overheating and due for a major downturn. People are buying up stocks like fools. The PE ratios are all high. There are no cheap buys. Every major tech stock is at its all time peaks. This is not the time to be buying, this is the time to be selling.

Google, Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Apple -- all have hit their all time peaks just recently. All are looking overpriced. None of them are good buys now. It's 10% upside 90% downside.

If you don't understand this you should not be investing in stocks because you will lose your pants.

And when these peaking tech stocks crash, which they soon will, Bitcoin will crash with them, as it always has. Then is when to buy Bitcoin.

Your whole strategy is backwards.

I’ll take this into account. I appreciate it. I do plan to sell off soon, just waiting for it to go at least to 80K so I can have some solid profit 

[Dodo]

53 minutes ago, BlessedLion said:

I’ll take this into account. I appreciate it. I do plan to sell off soon, just waiting for it to go at least to 80K so I can have some solid profit 

My analysis says its down from here, and looking at division by 3 at the least from current price. So in my eyes we are looking at a top here and now. 

Here's the analysis, these macro patterns are usually accurate as shown from the past time it happened, the measurement was perfect. Now we have similar price action to that past scenario, like a fractal playing out. I wouldn't touch crypto until I see that target met. 

 

 https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SOLUSDT/4SDXAxyS-SOL-down-to-59-60-on-hidden-SHS-pattern/

 

Also, if in some way it manages to deny this bearish pattern, and gets to 80k, there would need to be a reason on the chart to sell. If it goes to 80k, it would be a massive mistake to sell, because the resistance was already crushed. If you want to sell, do it now when the bears have a clear play. 

Edited July 18 by Dodo

[Stovo]

The dollar has devalued by 40-50% in 5 years. The market just needs to stay flat for 5 years and you've lost half your purchasing power. 

Gold. Bitcoin. 

[Leo Gura]

12 hours ago, PsychedelicEagle said:

Gold as an asset does not create value, whereas there are thousands of companies all over the world with low PE ratios creating value to (and therefore profiting from) people. Why not invest in those ones instead?

Because when tech stocks crash, lead by Nvidia, the whole market will crash with them.

Meanwhile, the gov is printing dollars at 10% per year, eating away your cash. The gov's CPI is BS, it's not the real inflation rate. Gold should double or triple in the next 5-10 years thanks to all the dollars the gov must print just to stay ahead of its debt. Gov will be printing dollars at an ever increasing rate from here on out. This is the surest thing you can know about the next 10 years of finance. Everything else is uncertain, but the printing of dollars is guaranteed. And the next more certain thing is that crypto will crash along with the market by 50% or more.

But you do your own thinking. Don't invest based on my words.

Edited July 19 by Leo Gura

[Leo Gura]

13 hours ago, hundreth said:

When will the markets actually begin to crash and correct for this? Probably some time mid way through Trump's next term... but it isn't going to be now.

It could happen much sooner because everyone is acting like they have time to rake in more profits. Which is just the kind of greedy attitude which will get your dick caught in the cookie jar.

[Jayson G]

32 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

Because when tech stocks crash, lead by Nvidia, the whole market will crash with them.

Meanwhile, the gov is printing dollars at 10% per year, eating away your cash. The gov's CPI is BS, it's not the real inflation rate. Gold should double or triple in the next 5-10 years thanks to all the dollars the gov must print just to stay ahead of its debt. Gov will be printing dollars at an ever increasing rate from here on out. This is the surest thing you can know about the next 10 years of finance. Everything else is uncertain, but the printing of dollars is guaranteed. And the next more certain thing is that crypto will crash along with the market by 50% or more.

But you do your own thinking. Don't invest based on my words.

@Leo Gura I got in Nvidia early, at a 3x right now, overall sure you can try to time the market and sell when its overheated, and sure there is definitely a lot of hype right now, but continuing to sell, buy, sell, buy, some of us just want to buy and hold long-term, and that's a solid strategy too right? Sure even if there's a 60% drop, if you believe in a company longterm, and see its long-term value, then it makes sense to just stop eyeing the fluctuations so much, focus on the value of the company, let it go and move on to other projects? For ex. Nvidia is leading the monopoly in computing and chips, and over time more and more products and services will be built on compute, making Nvidia a no-brainer buy. 

[Leo Gura]

5 minutes ago, Jayson G said:

making Nvidia a no-brainer buy. 

Nvidia is a no-brainer sell if you 3xed your money.