Respectfully disagreeing with Leo about Crypto

[vinc3nc]

2 hours ago, josemar said:

Still, it just goes to show, you can't be an expert in all walks of life, just because you have some good ideas... If only for the fact that other people dedicate lots more hours to become specialized in different domains.

Exactly.

[FourCrossedWands]

He didn't sell because he isn't a crypto expert. He sold to get rid of any emotional and time investment in BTC.

There are better things to do, such as awakening and cleaning carpet lol.

[vinc3nc]

@FourCrossedWands one who understands the bitcoin 4 year cycle thing - that bitcoin goes up immensly post the halving event and post election - does not sell their bitcoin in the middle of a bull run.

[FourCrossedWands]

You guys are like fish in a fish tank. It's actually kinda funny 🙂

[vinc3nc]

@FourCrossedWands Do you own any BTC or any other asset?

[integral]

Leo has made a ridiculous amount of money, he owns his house and that went up like crazy. He could’ve bought bitcoin in 2014.. he could’ve sold $11 million worth of bitcoin. Selling at 60k is not a financial mistake.. lol

Also selling now is not a financial mistake at 100 K. Because it’s more likely to crash than continue going up.. even if it doubles in price from now, it still made sense to sell that at this price. And then you could just buy back on the next crash.

Edited December 7 by integral

[vinc3nc]

@integral If it was so easy to just sell and wait for the crash so you could buy lower, then we would all be Warren Buffetts, wouldn't we?
 

1 hour ago, integral said:

Because it’s more likely to crash than continue going up.

How do you know it's more likely to crash? You're just guessing and you have no clue. Yes, eventually, another bear market will come. We don't know when and at what price. But you can look at the historical data and guess a little bit better based on that, because you see what the market tends to do at certain times. But to say that it's more likely to crash right now is just ridiculous.

what does "crash" even mean to you?

1 hour ago, integral said:

And then you could just buy back on the next crash.

And what if you sell at 60k or 70k, and then BTC goes over 100k and never again drops below, let's say, 90k. What then? The train has left and you're waiting for "the crash". Just guessing and waiting for a crash won't get you far in investing game.

Edited December 7 by vinc3nc

[josemar]

41 minutes ago, vinc3nc said:

@integral If it was so easy to just sell and wait for the crash so you could buy lower, then we would all be Warren Buffetts, wouldn't we?
 

How do you know it's more likely to crash? You're just guessing and you have no clue. Yes, eventually, another bear market will come. We don't know when and at what price. But you can look at the historical data and guess a little bit better based on that, because you see what the market tends to do at certain times. But to say that it's more likely to crash right now is just ridiculous.

what does "crash" even mean to you?

And what if you sell at 60k or 70k, and then BTC goes over 100k and never again drops below, let's say, 90k. What then? The train has left and you're waiting for "the crash". Just guessing and waiting for a crash won't get you far in investing game.

Or btc goes to 150k and you wait for the next crash and buy at 80k... Then bitcoin goes to zero 😉

"This time is different" 🥷

[integral]

1 hour ago, vinc3nc said:

And what if you sell at 60k or 70k, and then BTC goes over 100k and never again drops below, let's say, 90k. What then? The train has left and you're waiting for "the crash". Just guessing and waiting for a crash won't get you far in investing game.

It's because you guys are thinking with a fomo strategy. Now is a good enough time to sell. It really doesn't matter what the market does you take profit and the Crash will always be obvious. And when everyone is selling like crazy and there's a gigantic red candle for 4 months you just start accumulating. When Bitcoin is down 65% You start accumulating. When Doge is down 99.8% from its peak. You start accumulating.

Doge will be down 99.8% from its peak. It always has been. It is Destiny. XRP the same thing. Then you just start accumulating.

What doesn't matter is trying to predict when the top is.

And then when you're up 400%, 500%. then you sell because that's a good enough time to sell than any other time. There is more downside than there is upside when you're up 500%.

Edited December 7 by integral

[josemar]

How about this revolutionary idea: take partial profits, e.g. sell 15% at 100k, 20% at 110k etc .. keeping maybe 20% in case it goes ballistic (1mil+). You don't have to sell ALL of it at a given price which probably won't be the top.

I'm personally not selling my bitcoin, maybe ever, I make enough trading it to sustain myself and my family, will buy up any 50+% dips, and continue to speculate on altcoins with 1% of my account...

[AlterEgo]

22 hours ago, josemar said:

 

Still, it just goes to show, you can't be an expert in all walks of life, just because you have some good ideas... If only for the fact that other people dedicate lots more hours to become specialized in different domains.

 

Yup.  At least he has his precious fiat currency that's losing value by the minute.

How can these guys not see the writing on the wall?  Yes many coins will come and go, but crypto as a whole is not going anywhere.  Especially utility coins. It's only getting started and is going to EXPLODE next year.  Welcome to new money. 

[vinc3nc]

40 minutes ago, integral said:

It's because you guys are thinking with a fomo strategy.

Not to brag, but I have to state a few facts about myself, because otherwise you'll just think I'm a typically guy who gambles their money away. I bought my first BTC at 4k in 2017 and went all-in soon after because I saw the potential to change my life pretty much immediately. Thanks to BTC and me being quite early, I've been able to become financially free. I no longer need to work a 9-5 job. It wasn't an easy path, but it was worth going all in, even though I sacrificed so much to accomplish that.

It's crazy to think that some people have to work 30-40 years to get the amount of money you can get in one crypto cycle (if you're smart about it). It makes you think that society really is a scam.

Anyways, I agree that if you've made life changing money, then you should sell most of it, no matter where we are in the cycle. Because you never know what happens, and if you've made enough, it doesn't matter. Greed can make you lose all of it.

@integral Im assuming that you're not heavily invested in BTC, nor have made a lot of money in BTC/crypto. I see that you have no conviction or at least not all of it. If it's so easy to just wait for everything to drop 80-99%, why haven't you accumulated everything at the bottom and come to the point where you can say "I've made it financially"?

It's so easy to say "I'll buy lower, when everything drops 98% and then go all in", but when the worst of the bear market comes, no one wants to buy at the lows, because everything seems hopeless and bottomless at that time.

[integral]

14 minutes ago, vinc3nc said:

Not to brag, but I have to state a few facts about myself, because otherwise you'll just think I'm a typically guy who gambles their money away. I bought my first BTC at 4k in 2017 and went all-in soon after because I saw the potential to change my life pretty much immediately. Thanks to BTC and me being quite early, I've been able to become financially free. I no longer need to work a 9-5 job. It wasn't an easy path, but it was worth going all in, even though I sacrificed so much to accomplish that.

It's crazy to think that some people have to work 30-40 years to get the amount of money you can get in one crypto cycle (if you're smart about it). It makes you think that society really is a scam.

Anyways, I agree that if you've made life changing money, then you should sell most of it, no matter where we are in the cycle. Because you never know what happens, and if you've made enough, it doesn't matter. Greed can make you lose all of it.

@integral Im assuming that you're not heavily invested in BTC, nor have made a lot of money in BTC/crypto. I see that you have no conviction or at least not all of it. If it's so easy to just wait for everything to drop 80-99%, why haven't you accumulated everything at the bottom and come to the point where you can say "I've made it financially"?

It's so easy to say "I'll buy lower, when everything drops 98% and then go all in", but when the worst of the bear market comes, no one wants to buy at the lows, because everything seems hopeless and bottomless at that time.

I agree and I had that mindset most of the time throughout the years and then I woke up. I both ethereum at 10 dollars and bitcoin at 1100. lol back in 2017. But unlike you I didn't go all in out of fear. Mostly I didn't understand the market or really anything about markets at the time. Then I bought Bitcoin again at 30k-16k averaging in after the huge crash in covid. Now that everything is up you know 400 500% again I just see downside. It's going to have a massive pullback and then you can just buy again. 

Full disclosure I'm still holding ethereum waiting for it to have its massive all-time high. And then I'm going to sell it all lol

Part of the point I was making is when you buy is equally important to when you sell. 

It's perfectly fine that you guys are playing the HODL strategy. That works too.

Edited December 7 by integral

[integral]

Also I wrote two indicators for fun back in the day.
https://www.tradingview.com/script/1nSClnOQ-RSI-Dot-Party-All-Lengths-From-1-To-120/

https://www.tradingview.com/script/SYFbY4YS-Bracket-Trading-Visualizer/

I built them when I was trading Futures on 5-15 minute time frames.

[integral]

19 minutes ago, vinc3nc said:

Not to brag, but I have to state a few facts about myself, because otherwise you'll just think I'm a typically guy who gambles their money away. I bought my first BTC at 4k in 2017 and went all-in soon after because I saw the potential to change my life pretty much immediately. Thanks to BTC and me being quite early, I've been able to become financially free. I no longer need to work a 9-5 job. It wasn't an easy path, but it was worth going all in, even though I sacrificed so much to accomplish that.

It's crazy to think that some people have to work 30-40 years to get the amount of money you can get in one crypto cycle (if you're smart about it). It makes you think that society really is a scam.

Anyways, I agree that if you've made life changing money, then you should sell most of it, no matter where we are in the cycle. Because you never know what happens, and if you've made enough, it doesn't matter. Greed can make you lose all of it.

@integral Im assuming that you're not heavily invested in BTC, nor have made a lot of money in BTC/crypto. I see that you have no conviction or at least not all of it. If it's so easy to just wait for everything to drop 80-99%, why haven't you accumulated everything at the bottom and come to the point where you can say "I've made it financially"?

It's so easy to say "I'll buy lower, when everything drops 98% and then go all in", but when the worst of the bear market comes, no one wants to buy at the lows, because everything seems hopeless and bottomless at that time.

What other strategies have you been using? Overall what has your strategy been so far?

Edited December 7 by integral

[vinc3nc]

46 minutes ago, integral said:

 Now that everything is up you know 400 500% again I just see downside. It's going to have a massive pullback and then you can just buy again. 

Not everything is up so much. ETH hasn't done shit this cycle yet. And you just proved my point by hodling ETH yourself. You're not going to sell it because you see and know it's going higher most likely. To ATH first & then probably 6k+,

Pullbacks in a bull market are small & rarely ever more than 20-25%. You had a lot of time to accumulate between March and November this year. That's like 8-9 months of consolidation, and thinking that after such a long consolidation, the market will only go up for a month and then enter a bear market is just crazy. Have some conviction.

31 minutes ago, integral said:

What other strategies have you been using? Overall what has your strategy been so far?

Apart from holding things long-term, I was lucky enough that I entered at the lows this cycle, probably average buy just above 20k for BTC. I also went heavy in Solana at the lows, was buying it from 25usd all the way down to 8usd (it's now above 240). I knew Solana was a no brainer. And I've had it staked for a long time now, which brings me a salary worth of SOL just from staking alone.

So I'm just holding, not trading. Planning to sell everything in a few months or when things go really crazy. If I wanted to trade, it would bring me just unnecessary stress, which I learned in the past is not worth it.

And if I didn't have any crypto right now, I would probably go all-in in ETH, because it will most likely make up for it in the coming weeks/months. It's the safest bet right now or at least it was near 3k-ish. But you won't make it big with ETH, but it's low risk. It won't make you 5-10x like other coins can.

Considering the bull market might be 60-80% over, it's hard to make it unless you take on more risk with coins that have low market cap. Or you go really heavy with safer ones.

Edited December 7 by vinc3nc

[integral]

45 minutes ago, vinc3nc said:

Not everything is up so much. ETH hasn't done shit this cycle yet. And you just proved my point by hodling ETH yourself. You're not going to sell it because you see and know it's going higher most likely. To ATH first & then probably 6k+,

Pullbacks in a bull market are small & rarely ever more than 20-25%. You had a lot of time to accumulate between March and November this year. That's like 8-9 months of consolidation, and thinking that after such a long consolidation, the market will only go up for a month and then enter a bear market is just crazy. Have some conviction.

Apart from holding things long-term, I was lucky enough that I entered at the lows this cycle, probably average buy just above 20k for BTC. I also went heavy in Solana at the lows, was buying it from 25usd all the way down to 8usd (it's now above 240). I knew Solana was a no brainer. And I've had it staked for a long time now, which brings me a salary worth of SOL just from staking alone.

So I'm just holding, not trading. Planning to sell everything in a few months or when things go really crazy. If I wanted to trade, it would bring me just unnecessary stress, which I learned in the past is not worth it.

And if I didn't have any crypto right now, I would probably go all-in in ETH, because it will most likely make up for it in the coming weeks/months. It's the safest bet right now or at least it was near 3k-ish. But you won't make it big with ETH, but it's low risk. It won't make you 5-10x like other coins can.

Considering the bull market might be 60-80% over, it's hard to make it unless you take on more risk with coins that have low market cap. Or you go really heavy with safer ones.

lmao beautifully done. That's basically the strategy I've been saying except I was also saying well we're probably best case scenario this is at the very least halfway through the bull market and that's being optimistic. Like SOL is not going to double more than this It already 10x. Probability speaking there is more downside than upside. And SOl will hit a 98% loss at some point from its peek. Absolutely inevitable when bear market hits and then you just buy it all up. And do the whole thing again lol.

Edited December 7 by integral

[vinc3nc]

9 minutes ago, integral said:

That's basically the strategy I've been saying except I was also saying well we're probably best case scenario this is at the very least halfway through the bull market and that's being optimistic.

But keep in mind, the steepest rise is in the last phase of the market (when things go parabolic). That's why I was "mocking" Leo's tweet. He sold during a consolidation phase during a bull market, confidently calling for a "crash" (bottom in his words).

 

9 minutes ago, integral said:

Probability speaking there is more downside than upside.

You can't know. What if these prices are the next bear market's lows? You should know by now how crazy things can get at the end. Most coins haven't even hit their previous cycle's ATH. You can enter in the last phase of the market and still make the majority of the gains (if you pick the right coins, of course), But yeah, buying BTC here won't make you millions probably.

[OBEler]

@vinc3nc Yes it was an ignorant  move selling all your Bitcoin and even be happy about your wins. We get a first PRO Bitcoin us president, Elon musk is also full into crypto.and the bull run did not have even started.This all screams for Bitcoin going up after consolidating for month (which is not a problem at all, it was just waiting for some trigger).

 

[vinc3nc]

1 hour ago, OBEler said:

the bull run did not have even started.

A bull run starts the moment a bear run ends, and the bear market for BTC ended in November 2022. It's been going up since then. For every $1000 you put in at the bottom would now be worth $6500. That's 550% from the bottom.

If you're buying BTC now, you're risking way more than the previous years, so to say the bull run hasn't even started yet is just not reasonable.