Respectfully disagreeing with Leo about Crypto

[Jayson G]

@Leo Gura But see here's the problem, say I sell now, the market goes up from here, then there wont necessarily be a good time to re-enter, which you'd want to do because Im talking about its value in 10 years, and then when do you re-enter? It's very hard to time markets. If Im not skilled in timing markets, itd only make sense for a buy and hold long-term strategy. You're thinking of a buy and sell short-term strategy.

[Leo Gura]

24 minutes ago, Jayson G said:

@Leo Gura But see here's the problem, say I sell now, the market goes up from here, then there wont necessarily be a good time to re-enter, which you'd want to do because Im talking about its value in 10 years, and then when do you re-enter? It's very hard to time markets. If Im not skilled in timing markets, itd only make sense for a buy and hold long-term strategy. You're thinking of a buy and sell short-term strategy.

I don't want to tell you how to invest your money, so you do what you think is best.

But as far as my thinking goes, when the market is down 40%+ for a period of a 3-12 months, that's when it's time to reinvest. The lower it goes the righter it is to reinvest. So if goes down 60%, you can reinvest without worry.

Like I said, you have to consider upside vs downside ratio. Your upside right now is 10-20% max. Your downside is 50-70%. That's a bad bet.

Edited July 19 by Leo Gura

[Jayson G]

26 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

I don't want to tell you how to invest your money, so you do what you think is best.

But as far as my thinking goes, when the market is down 40%+ for a period of a 3-12 months, that's when it's time to reinvest. The lower it goes the righter it is to reinvest. So if goes down 60%, you can reinvest without worry.

Like I said, you have to consider upside vs downside ratio. Your upside right now is 10-20% max. Your downside is 50-70%. That's a bad bet.

@Leo Gura it seems you're pretty confident about the likelihood of a crash. Im honestly not that skilled in it. I hear people talking about a "crash" all the time. I guess that's a skill one needs to develop, which allows you to execute such a strategy. If you're able to accurately assess market crashes then it's a strategy worth looking into, which I will. 

[Leo Gura]

46 minutes ago, Jayson G said:

I hear people talking about a "crash" all the time.

It's true that there is a whole cottage industry of financial doom porn. They call for crashes every year.

But I made 40% gains on Google, Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon stock in the last 2 years and now is time to cash out for me. These gains cannot continue much longer. But ya'll can go down with the ship if you like. Including you crypto bros. Have fun. I'll see you at the bottom.

Edited July 19 by Leo Gura

[Dodo]

3 hours ago, Jayson G said:

@Leo Gura But see here's the problem, say I sell now, the market goes up from here, then there wont necessarily be a good time to re-enter, which you'd want to do because Im talking about its value in 10 years, and then when do you re-enter? It's very hard to time markets. If Im not skilled in timing markets, itd only make sense for a buy and hold long-term strategy. You're thinking of a buy and sell short-term strategy.

You DONT reenter. You DONT gamble. You DONT look at the price. 

If you never seen the price, does it matter to you that its going up or down? Its all in the mind, just focus on something else. 

I havent analysed the stock market, but sounds very overbought, based on your interest.

"What if it goes up?" - it fking will go up, then you will buy and then it will go down. Ive seen everything when it comes to price movements.

 

 

 

[Staples]

@Leo Gura I might have missed the answer but what are you going to do with your cash after you sell? Bank it or invest in currency / commodities, or re-invest into your new biz?

For me I'm thinking a global crash/recession is the perfect time to pivot from wage-slave to LP biz.

Also anyone else who is planning on selling in the next 6-months, what do you plan to do with the cash?

Edited July 19 by Staples

[PsychedelicEagle]

6 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

Because when tech stocks crash, lead by Nvidia, the whole market will crash with them.

Fair point. But then what you're suggesting is timing the market. Which is what I personally don't believe in. IMO doing so is leaving oneself open to cognitive biases and human mistakes. There is a reason why almost no mutual fund consistently beats the market in longer horizons (5y+). Also, time/energy put into timing the market could be invested into other endeavors such as watching Actualized.org videos 

[PsychedelicEagle]

16 hours ago, FourCrossedWands said:

Why not buy both? Have some physical gold and also invest in low PE dividend stocks. Those that hold really well even during a recession (McDonald's, Walmart, etc.)

Why Gold over fixed income from many different Goverments or companies around the world? Or real estate? And, why Gold over Silver, Platinum, Palladium, Rhodium, Copper, Nickel, Aluminum, Lithium, Rice whatever? And, why Gold over investing in Gold-mining companies that at least would generate profit (instead of having an asset whose value is not increasing)?

7 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

The gov's CPI is BS, it's not the real inflation rate.

Interesting point, but then the price of Gold should currently be way higher than it currently is, shouldn't it?

PS: I'm not advocating for Crypto. I don't have any. I just don't think Gold is a good investment or a robust way of protecting against inflation.

Edited July 19 by PsychedelicEagle

[PsychedelicEagle]

5 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

Your upside right now is 10-20% max. Your downside is 50-70%.

The issue is that the probability of the upside/downside scenarios materializing are not uniform.

5 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

when the market is down 40%+ for a period of a 3-12 months, that's when it's time to reinvest.

Here you risk not investing for a long period of time. Very sporadically the whole market goes down that much. If it doesn't happen then you are going to need to buy stocks at a higher price later on, unless you never invest in the stock market again. Or, say the market is down 30% (and not 40%), will you reinvest at that time?

Just trying to point some challenges with timing the market.

Edited July 19 by PsychedelicEagle

[Leo Gura]

2 hours ago, Staples said:

I might have missed the answer but what are you going to do with your cash after you sell?

Cash or gold.

[Leo Gura]

1 hour ago, PsychedelicEagle said:

Or, say the market is down 30% (and not 40%), will you reinvest at that time?

Depends on the overall mood of the market. But 30% down is a good place to invest even if you lose another 20%.

[nerdspeak]

10 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

Meanwhile, the gov is printing dollars at 10% per year, eating away your cash.

Are you able to share how you calculate that? Using M1 or M2?

 

[FourCrossedWands]

No reason to worry, Trump's here to save us 😂

 

[josemar]

19 hours ago, Dodo said:

My analysis says its down from here, and looking at division by 3 at the least from current price. So in my eyes we are looking at a top here and now. 

Here's the analysis, these macro patterns are usually accurate as shown from the past time it happened, the measurement was perfect. Now we have similar price action to that past scenario, like a fractal playing out. I wouldn't touch crypto until I see that target met. 

 

 https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SOLUSDT/4SDXAxyS-SOL-down-to-59-60-on-hidden-SHS-pattern/

 

Also, if in some way it manages to deny this bearish pattern, and gets to 80k, there would need to be a reason on the chart to sell. If it goes to 80k, it would be a massive mistake to sell, because the resistance was already crushed. If you want to sell, do it now when the bears have a clear play. 

Now do Cardano

[Dodo]

29 minutes ago, josemar said:

Now do Cardano

If Sol will fall, you know cardano will be like 10 cents lol

[BlessedLion]

Crypto is pumping bruh

[OBEler]

15 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

It's true that there is a whole cottage industry of financial doom porn. They call for crashes every year.

But I made 40% gains on Google, Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon stock in the last 2 years and now is time to cash out for me. These gains cannot continue much longer. But ya'll can go down with the ship if you like. Including you crypto bros. Have fun. I'll see you at the bottom.

It will not go bottom soon. I think you don't calculate Trump becoming president. He will have positive effects on the market the next years (not long-term). It will be a booster especially for cryptos so better stock up your coins until it's too late 

 

Trump and especially his vice president are pro Bitcoin. 

Your 40% gains are pretty small compared to the gains you could get with cryptos. I have around 180% gains in these two years overall with Bitcoin. Sold all my tech stocks for Bitcoin and don't regret it. 

Edited July 19 by OBEler

[Leo Gura]

6 minutes ago, OBEler said:

It will not go bottom soon. I think you don't calculate Trump becoming president. He will have positive effects on the market the next years (not long-term). It will be a booster especially for cryptos so better stock up your coins until it's too late 

I won't necessarily sell out immediately but soon. Depends on how I read the mood in the room.

Quote

Your 40% gains are pretty small compared to the gains you could get with cryptos.

Of course they are smaller, because the risk was much lower.

40% is a lot for such low risk companies. Don't compare that with crypto, which is pure speculation.

Edited July 19 by Leo Gura

[OBEler]

7 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

I won't necessarily sell out immediately but soon. Depends on how I read the mood in the room.

Of course they are smaller, because the risk was much lower.

40% is a lot for such low risk companies.

Yes it's a lot, still chance risk ratio on  Bitcoin/cryptos is best even if trump doesn't win. Or tell me stocks which you think will have a better chance/risk ratio, right now it's difficult to find.

Edited July 19 by OBEler

[Leo Gura]

23 minutes ago, OBEler said:

Or tell me stocks which you think will have a better chance/risk ratio, right now it's difficult to find.

There are many good stocks, the market is just inflated so just wait for a correction.

Crypto is pure gamble. You have no idea what it will do.

Edited July 19 by Leo Gura