Respectfully disagreeing with Leo about Crypto

[OBEler]

3 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

It will be a great time to invest, however people will be bleeding money so bad that it will take balls of steel and liquid reserves.

I expect a 50% market crash within 2 years or so and if that happens an 80% crash in crypto. All this AI hype has got to pop.

Yes but the market will pop in a year hopefully. Bitcoin will start it's bullrun next year. It will 2-3x more worth then if the market doesn't crash .

So better invest now , cash out in one year. 

 

[Leo Gura]

3 minutes ago, OBEler said:

So better invest now , cash out in one year. 

It could happen sooner than a year. Timing it will be hard. Your upside will be small and your downside is enormous. People who invest now are jumping on a hype bandwagon that is about to fly off a cliff at any month.

Edited July 17 by Leo Gura

[Greatnestwithin]

7 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

No way. You don't want to endure the next crash. You will be bleeding money.

I expect a 50% market crash within 2 years or so and if that happens an 80% crash in crypto. All this AI hype has got to pop.

The theory is to keep on investing on Index funds every year regardless of the situation for the compund interests and long term play. @Leo Gura do you follow this? 

[Leo Gura]

3 minutes ago, Greatnestwithin said:

The theory is to keep on investing on Index funds every year regardless of the situation for the compund interests and long term play. @Leo Gura do you follow this? 

No I don't. I look at hype cycles and overvalued markets and exit beforehand.

My #1 concern is to not get caught up in a hype cycle and not to buy overvalued or peaking assets like Nvidia.

Edited July 17 by Leo Gura

[Greatnestwithin]

1 minute ago, Leo Gura said:

No I don't. I look at hype cycles and overvalued markets and exit beforehand.

@Leo Gura does exist mean you transfer your money to other funds or literally cash out and get taxed on it?

[Greatnestwithin]

3 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

No I don't. I look at hype cycles and overvalued markets and exit beforehand.

My #1 concern is to not get caught up in a hype cycle and not to buy overvalued or peaking assets like Nvidia.

@Leo Gura my strategy is not to buy single out assets but have a large portafolio or fixed and variable returns.

[Leo Gura]

1 minute ago, Greatnestwithin said:

@Leo Gura does exist mean you transfer your money to other funds or literally cash out and get taxed on it?

Cash out.

[Leo Gura]

Just now, Greatnestwithin said:

@Leo Gura my strategy is not to buy single out assets but have a large portafolio or fixed and variable returns.

Well, you do you.

[Greatnestwithin]

2 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

Well, you do you.

@Leo Gura I don´t enjoy having to pay all the energy and attention to single picking of assets. But I understand. I want to focus more on my carreer and stuff

[nerdspeak]

The Warren Buffett recommended strategy is that if you don't need the money in the short-term and you're in something diversified like VOO you can just hold out and wait. Timing the market is really hard. 

But seeing your net worth drop by 50% -- even if it's just on paper -- is stressful, and this is guaranteed to happen from time to time if you follow this approach. 

Since big crises seem to be more frequent now, you can instead keep your money in low-risk govt bonds paying 4-5% and wait for the next COVID/banking crisis/Ukraine war and buy a lot when blood is in the streets. That is more my strategy even though someone like Buffett would yell at me for trying to be too clever. 

An important thing to realize is, we don't live in a free-market society like before WWII. We live in a managerial society that uses markets as a tool for managing people and resources. What that means is, if there's a big stock market crash, the US govt will step in and over a few years pump it back up. 

Of course that doesn't apply to individual stocks let alone crypto. Leave individual stocks to professionals and I would stay out of crypto completely...

 

Edited July 17 by nerdspeak

[Leo Gura]

10 minutes ago, nerdspeak said:

What that means is, if there's a big stock market crash, the US govt will step in and over a few years pump it back up. 

The days of that are soon coming to an end. Or rather, it will happen but then much worse things will happen as the currency gets inflated.

[josemar]

13 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

The days of that are soon coming to an end. Or rather, it will happen but then much worse things will happen as the currency gets inflated.

Hence bitcoin 😄 

[Leo Gura]

15 minutes ago, josemar said:

Hence bitcoin 😄 

Except Bitcoin will be the first to crash if that happens. Bitcoin does not work like a proper inflation hedge because as soon as markets gets uncertain it crashes. A proper inflation hedge cannot be a speculative investment driven by hype cycles.

Edited July 17 by Leo Gura

[josemar]

2 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

Except Bitcoin will be the first to crash if that happens. Bitcoin does not work like a proper inflation hedge because as soon as markets gets uncertain it crashes. A proper inflation hedge cannot be a speculative investment driven by hype cycles.

It worked well since 2011...

[FourCrossedWands]

It's true that right now is not a good time to invest into anything.

The best investment right now is avoid buying expensive stuff you don't need. Overpriced cars, new gadgets, fancy clothes, etc. You will never resell them for even 50% of the purchase price because people are totally broke.

Edited July 17 by FourCrossedWands

[BlessedLion]

13 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

The days of that are soon coming to an end. Or rather, it will happen but then much worse things will happen as the currency gets inflated.

Crypto babyyyy

[BlessedLion]

10 hours ago, FourCrossedWands said:

The best investment right now is avoid buying expensive stuff you don't need.

I’ve been doing this for a while and now I’m financially free  

[BlessedLion]

On 7/15/2024 at 5:43 PM, FourCrossedWands said:

Wasn't it supposed to be 150k like 5 years ago?

Look at what it was 5 years ago and if you bought one where it’d be now. The charts don’t lie. The problem is people panic sell and lose all their money. Crypto takes balls 

[BlessedLion]

14 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

It could happen sooner than a year. Timing it will be hard. Your upside will be small and your downside is enormous. People who invest now are jumping on a hype bandwagon that is about to fly off a cliff at any month.

What makes you say this though? I’m not seeing this narrative anywhere else. 

[BlessedLion]

14 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

Cash out.

Holding cash that doesn’t earn on itself? That’s losing tons of money these days