Respectfully disagreeing with Leo about Crypto

[Leo Gura]

5 hours ago, Bobby_2021 said:

It's reasonable to assume that stocks also rise over time.

It's wrong.

[Leo Gura]

3 hours ago, FourCrossedWands said:

One day, this house of cards will collapse and all bitcoin millionaires will realise they own thin air.

Once everyone will try to sell their Bitcoin at the exact same time, only a few guys that are fast enough will profit. Others will not even get their initial investment back.

Could happen, but Bitcoin could just as likely replace gold long term. Despite all the shitcoins out there, Bitcoin is still quite unique. What needs to happen is all the shitcoins need to die, leaving only Bitcoin.

Edited March 12 by Leo Gura

[Leo Gura]

27 minutes ago, Bandman said:

Ethereum and Monero are not shitcoins, they have legit use cases.

They may be useful for some limited things, but there's no serious store of value there.

[FourCrossedWands]

2 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

Could happen, but Bitcoin could just as likely replace gold long term. Despite all the shitcoins out there, Bitcoin is still quite unique. What needs to happen is all the shitcoins need to die, leaving only Bitcoin.

I highly doubt it. At first glance, Bitcoin seems like its taking gold's position, but you should realize gold is going up as well.

When you take gold's market cap and divide it by Bitcoins market cap, they both go up at the same time. Same money is going into gold and Bitcoin.

Bitcoin's market cap is a fraction of gold's market cap which creates an illusion. Its the same like in the late 90s when gold didn't gain much value because everyone was investing in stocks and dot com bubble, etc.

Crypto is like the dot com bubble. There are people that are still holding dot com domains since late 90s and trying to sell them for $50k or more. Bitcoin owners will end up just like these dot com hoarders that will never get their investment back.

[josemar]

2 minutes ago, Bandman said:

True, but then the same would go for bitcoin. Why is BTC's unique meme status worth more than ETH? is the only reason you think BTC would hold up as a store of value it's unique historic status?

And the fact bitcoin is a commodity like gold, not a security like eth and most others. Wait until Vitalik and other eth investors have to file paperwork like companies that sell stocks, carnage will ensue.

And Monero? Got delisted recently from some exchanges, governments don't like untraceable money. It might survive as a niche dark web payment method, but it'll never be mainstream... Down 77% against bitcoin in the last year.

[FourCrossedWands]

The biggest problem of crypto is that 99% of the world's population will never use it on daily basis.

Most of the crypto enthusiasts live in a digital bubble, read about crypto everyday and don't realize that they are just a tiny minority.

[josemar]

11 minutes ago, FourCrossedWands said:

I highly doubt it. At first glance, Bitcoin seems like its taking gold's position, but you should realize gold is going up as well.

 

Ah yes, Gold is such a performer, up 27% in 13 years (since 2011), up 150% since 1980 (44 years ago - guess what inflation did to that price increase?)

 

13 minutes ago, FourCrossedWands said:

When you take gold's market cap and divide it by Bitcoins market cap, they both go up at the same time. Same money is going into gold and Bitcoin.

How much faster Bitcoin grew since its inception in comparison to gold is not even fair, you can't even wrap your head around this number, it's about 700 million percent.

In the last year, bitcoin is up 270% compared to gold.

How are you going to verify governments and central banks have the gold they say they have? You can't. This information is all publicly available on the blockchain for Bitcoin.

In 50 years, when we'll be mining asteroids, gold will have a practically infinite supply, bitcoin will still be 21 million.

[Leo Gura]

32 minutes ago, Bandman said:

True, but then the same would go for bitcoin. Why is BTC's unique meme status worth more than ETH? is the only reason you think BTC would hold up as a store of value its unique historic status?

I think ETH isn't really secure. It is controlled by its creator and isn't truly decentralized.

But yeah, historic status is key here. The value of Bitcoin lies in it being a global consensus. Many will try to copy Bitcoin but they are too late to the party.

26 minutes ago, FourCrossedWands said:

I highly doubt it. At first glance, Bitcoin seems like its taking gold's position, but you should realize gold is going up as well.

When you take gold's market cap and divide it by Bitcoins market cap, they both go up at the same time. Same money is going into gold and Bitcoin.

Bitcoin's market cap is a fraction of gold's market cap which creates an illusion. Its the same like in the late 90s when gold didn't gain much value because everyone was investing in stocks and dot com bubble, etc.

If you think about it, the US economy generates $30+ trillion per year of value. The entire market cap of gold is under $15 trillion. There is simply not enough gold on the whole planet to be a serious global store of value. So gold cannot be the global store of value of the future. Which leaves the perfect opportunity for Bitcoin.

Quote

Crypto is like the dot com bubble.

Amazon survived the dot com bubble and is now one of the most valuable companies. The way bubbles work is that they kill off the weak and the bullshitters, creating room for the solid to skyrocket.

Edited March 12 by Leo Gura

[FourCrossedWands]

5 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

Amazon survived the dot com bubble and is now one of the most valuable companies. The way bubbles work is that they kill off the weak and the bullshitters, creating room for the solid to skyrocket.

Amazon competitors have a really hard barrier to entry. It's literally impossible for some new company to start competing with Amazon in the next decade or so.

Does Bitcoin really have the same hard barrier to entry as Amazon? What prevents anything else from dethroning Bitcoin as the number one digital store of value?

[FourCrossedWands]

41 minutes ago, josemar said:

In 50 years, when we'll be mining asteroids, gold will have a practically infinite supply, bitcoin will still be 21 million.

Also, there will be flying cars 😂

Last decade gold vs bitcoin.

Edited March 12 by FourCrossedWands

[OBEler]

@FourCrossedWands @Leo Gura

23 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

This is foolish. Buy and forget will often leave you with nothing.

23 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

This is foolish. Buy and forget will often leave you with nothing.

 

 

You all dismiss network effects, which is most important. Bitcoins network effect grows and grows which makes it more and more valuable 

To those who don't know network effects: How would Facebook look like if just some students would use it.

 

[Leo Gura]

58 minutes ago, Bandman said:

@Leo Gura what financial and economic system should humanity strife for in the next quarter century? And what steps should we start to take right now? how do we work towards a (more) cooperative economic strategy right now, what steps should we take?

That is beyond my expertise.

Nobody is in control of these vast systems. So my general policy is to not worry about the economic system as a whole. Worry rather about your own finances (which is what you can control).

55 minutes ago, FourCrossedWands said:

Does Bitcoin really have the same hard barrier to entry as Amazon?

Seems like yes. Lots have tried to supplant Bitcoin and none have come close. If anything, the last crypto crash shows how full of shit all the other coins are and how solid Bitcoin is. If Bitcoin was BS, it should have died in the last crash. The fact that Bitcoin has rebounded to an all time high after such a bad crash is a very good sign for Bitcoin maximalists.

I think there is a very good chance that Bitcoin will replace gold. Which is why I invested in it. Admittedly, this is speculative and risky, but it's not a crazy bet.

Edited March 13 by Leo Gura

[Leo Gura]

49 minutes ago, FourCrossedWands said:

Also, there will be flying cars 😂

Last decade gold vs bitcoin.

It's sort of like you're looking at the graph of Kodak film vs digital cameras in 1999.

If Bitcoin already had a massive graph vs gold, then it would already be too late to invest. The whole point of investing is to get in early, before it becomes obvious.

Edited March 13 by Leo Gura

[FourCrossedWands]

3 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

It's sort of like you're looking at the graph of Kodak film vs digital cameras in 1999.

If Bitcoin already had a massive graph vs gold, then it would already be too late to invest. The whole point of investing is to get in early, before it becomes obvious.

The graph was supposed to show how statements like "Bitcoin is replacing gold" are delusional.

[Leo Gura]

1 hour ago, FourCrossedWands said:

The graph was supposed to show how statements like "Bitcoin is replacing gold" are delusional.

The statement is that Bitcoin will replace gold over time. Your graph does nothing to contradict that.

Edited March 13 by Leo Gura

[FourCrossedWands]

9 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

That statement is that Bitcoin will replace gold over time. Your graph does nothing to contradict that.

I am not sure about that, because every year, more money went into gold than into Bitcoin and there is no reason why it should change in the future. In the last year, about 2 tril went into gold and 1 into Bitcoin. I don't think we will live long enough to see crypto overtake precious metals.

Edited March 13 by FourCrossedWands

[Leo Gura]

5 minutes ago, FourCrossedWands said:

In the last year, about 2 tril went into gold and 1 into Bitcoin.

The last year saw an epic crypto bubble crash, market crash, and record high inflation. It's no surprise that gold was popular.

In 10 years the situation can change radically. So I wouldn't worry about not living long enough. There will be huge shifts happening in the next 10 years within tech.

Edited March 13 by Leo Gura

[BlessedLion]

6 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

That is beyond my expertise.

Nobody is in control of these vast systems. So my general policy is to not worry about the economic system as a whole. Worry rather about your own finances (which is what you can control).

Seems like yes. Lots have tried to supplant Bitcoin and none have come close. If anything, the last crypto crash shows how full of shit all the other coins are and how solid Bitcoin is. If Bitcoin was BS, it should have died in the last crash. The fact that Bitcoin has rebounded to an all time high after such a bad crash is a very good sign for Bitcoin maximalists.

I think there is a very good chance that Bitcoin will replace gold. Which is why I invested in it. Admittedly, this is speculative and risky, but it's not a crazy bet.

Agreed. Bitcoin is a beast

[Dodo]

12 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

Could happen, but Bitcoin could just as likely replace gold long term. Despite all the shitcoins out there, Bitcoin is still quite unique. What needs to happen is all the shitcoins need to die, leaving only Bitcoin.

Just like different vehicles, we need the altcoins for different purposes. You cant just have a family car, you need racing cars, you need trucks that can carry a large load, you need all sort of different type of vehicles for it to best serve humanity. 

There is no universe in which altcoins die and bitcoin remains. 

[Leo Gura]

5 minutes ago, Dodo said:

There is no universe in which altcoins die and bitcoin remains. 

There will be a few altcoins for specialized purposes, but not as the main store of value.