Respectfully disagreeing with Leo about Crypto

[Thought Art]

My current understanding of crypto is that it’s just Hype. So it’s worthless for the most part aside from bitcoin. 

[something_else]

I met a dude trekking once who immediately pitched me crypto, had himself listed as a ‘crypto genius’ on instagram, and told everyone we met he made 80k on crypto. He did make 80k on crypto, which after some more discussion it turns out he lost all of within a few months on further crypto trades.

He’s probably hooked on gambling for the rest of his life now trying to recoup the feeling he had when he made that 80k, and I can see that going very badly.

 

[Dodo]

8 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

The key is not to fool yourself into thinking that you know what these coins will do in the future. Much of crypto investment is based on self-deception. The deception that you know what is gonna happen in the future. The truth is that you do not know, no one knows, and you are just guessing. You could guess right but most likely you will guess wrong.

I see many crypto people decieve themselves that they are doing something more than guessing. That is what makes this so dangerous and unsound as an investment. With crypto you are engaging in wild speculation but you rationalize it to yourself as something more than that.

Absolutely correct. 

I am not in the business of crystall balls. And any time I help someone with my analysis i tell them just that. My analysis is an educated guess. A low risk, High reward opportunity.

A No risk - High reward opportunity does not exist. Get a job for that. 

I often liken this to poker. The chart analysis can show you have aces. That means you need to put the money in. It doesnt mean you will win, it means the odds are in your favor. Thats what I'm doing, playing poker. And many would defend poker as not being gambling in the long term, altho you can even lose with aces if you get unlucky.

 

There is no rationalisation going on here, i know the charts i know the stats, from experience. Maybe someone else rationalises and guarantees that this or that will happen for sure. I do not.

 

I can only guarantee a low risk high reward setup when my conditions on the chart are met. We ride with profits if successful and exit at break even if we want to turn the low risk trade into a No risk trade, if things turn to the shitter, until we get another buy signal for another low risk trade. As simple as that. 

Example of this, if you bought on the fibonacci setup of btc down at 16k, it wouldve been a low risk high reward opportunity at the time the trade is opened. You have a stop loss in case it fails, to exit the market if things go wrong. They didnt, your trade, even without any leverage would be more than 100 percent in profit right now, and you can have a stop loss at break even, having right now a No Risk High Reward hold opportunity, because you took the risk when the time is right. 

Edited November 23, 2023 by Dodo

[Dodo]

8 hours ago, Thought Art said:

My current understanding of crypto is that it’s just Hype. So it’s worthless for the most part aside from bitcoin. 

Ok, then lets say you want to use bitcoin to transfer to someone else. You pay massive fees and wait a long time for the transaction to take place, price changes while you are moving the money... you get screwed. 

Xrp enters the chat. You researched and found out xrp is cheaper and faster for transfers. Its designed for money transfers, unlike btc . Xrp is essentially free and instant to transfer, the fee is extremely negligible. All of a sudden you realise bitcoin is useless for this particular action. Then if you delve deeper, you realise bitcoin is useless for Most actions, other than holding it.

There is a reason all those other cryptos exist, and its because btc cannot do what they do. You are saying the most useless crypto is the only that is worth it, its beyond ridiculous.  

How about that bombshell?

Edited November 23, 2023 by Dodo

[FourCrossedWands]

Why they just don't create a crypto that is perfect then? That can do it all? Be as scarse as Bitcoin, as fast as XRP, as useful as Ethereum? What if something better than crypto will be invented in the future? Will you still continue to buy Bitcoin?

[Dodo]

14 minutes ago, FourCrossedWands said:

Why they just don't create a crypto that is perfect then? That can do it all? Be as scarse as Bitcoin, as fast as XRP, as useful as Ethereum? What if something better than crypto will be invented in the future? Will you still continue to buy Bitcoin?

First im not buying bitcoin. Second, what if scenarios do not concern me, I follow the chart religiously,  it told me sell with a technical pattern from 40k , it even told me with that pattern the target of 16k for possible end of th bear market. (I use bitcoin analysis because its the general market mover with highest marketcap, so analysing it analyses the entire space more or less)

Then when that target was hit i wasnt sleeping, I immediately started to look for buying opportunities and setups. Lo and behold the very next buy setup was successful. 

 

If something better comes out, ad crypto turn bearish because of it, it will show on the chart and I will exit. Maybe i will analyse that other things chart and enter it. What if scenarios are just what if. We got to deal with what is right here right now. If you care for my analysis, right now it is telling me Buy based in various factors, and you already missed 4-5 weeks of that signal. Its been going up ever since my analysis was posted, giving me an extremely good opportunity. 

For comparison, Gold is in a massive bull market against the dollar, but it still hasnt 2x'd in price since the recent lows! Bitcoin already did more than that in a fraction of the time. If you analyse gold to btc chart, you know where the money is going .

 

Edited November 23, 2023 by Dodo

[FourCrossedWands]

31 minutes ago, Dodo said:

First im not buying bitcoin. Second, what if scenarios do not concern me, I follow the chart religiously,  it told me sell with a technical pattern from 40k , it even told me with that pattern the target of 16k for possible end of th bear market. (I use bitcoin analysis because its the general market mover with highest marketcap, so analysing it analyses the entire space more or less)

Then when that target was hit i wasnt sleeping, I immediately started to look for buying opportunities and setups. Lo and behold the very next buy setup was successful. 

 

If something better comes out, ad crypto turn bearish because of it, it will show on the chart and I will exit. Maybe i will analyse that other things chart and enter it. What if scenarios are just what if. We got to deal with what is right here right now. If you care for my analysis, right now it is telling me Buy based in various factors, and you already missed 4-5 weeks of that signal. Its been going up ever since my analysis was posted, giving me an extremely good opportunity. 

For comparison, Gold is in a massive bull market against the dollar, but it still hasnt 2x'd in price since the recent lows! Bitcoin already did more than that in a fraction of the time. If you analyse gold to btc chart, you know where the money is going .

 

Yes, but you are still not 100% sure you will succeed. Otherwise you would borrow money and gamble with borrowed money if there wasn't any risk involved.

I don't care about some internet gold price. I own physical gold. You know, those shiny yellow rocks from fairytales.

[Dodo]

57 minutes ago, FourCrossedWands said:

Yes, but you are still not 100% sure you will succeed. Otherwise you would borrow money and gamble with borrowed money if there wasn't any risk involved.

I don't care about some internet gold price. I own physical gold. You know, those shiny yellow rocks from fairytales.

I am borrowing, thats what leverage is. When the time is right for low risk entry, I apply 10x leverage so my reward is 10 times sweeter if successful. Otherwise i need to invest big capital, which I dont have. I have the charts, which will eventually bring me the capital from a small and smart position with "borrowed money" aka leverage. 

Did you read anything I wrote, i never said there isnt any risk involved, if anyone tells you no risk, they are trying to scam you. Its about managing the risk. Investing with money you are willing to lose at the right moments, please read my responses to Leo, you are beating on the No Risk statement after I explained it all there .

 

If you have physical gold and the price tanks, you lose money. If you hold physical gold and not crypto, and crypto outperforms gold, then you missed on opportunity cost. You were backing the wrong horse. No two ways about it. Holding a snail, vs a cheetah. You still risk, and your reward is not even worth it when you're successful, just my opinion.

 

Edited November 23, 2023 by Dodo

[FourCrossedWands]

53 minutes ago, Dodo said:

Holding a snail, vs a cheetah. You still risk, and your reward is not even worth it when you're successful, just my opinion.

 

I don't risk anything, I just own my gold. It's an insurance not a money maker.

There is a reason why banks hoard gold not crypto

 

Edited November 23, 2023 by FourCrossedWands

[Dodo]

30 minutes ago, FourCrossedWands said:

I don't risk anything, I just own my gold. It's an insurance not a money maker.

There is a reason why banks hoard gold not crypto

 

You can own crypro as well on no leverage on a physical ledger you can hold in your hand and you own your own crypto without risking losing it no matter what the price does or which exchange goes under. 

Since they're doing that, I'd say they are going to end up the clowns, who told you countries are not stacking crypto,  you think USA wants china to beat them?

Edited November 23, 2023 by Dodo

[Samy]

In fact, cryptocurrency is now a tool for hiding wealth due to its weak regulation. I believe that it has a future, but first, we need to weed out a bunch of empty coins and tighten regulation on the main coin like BTC. I have a friend who invests in cryptocurrencies and has a good profit. But I also have friends who have lost everything. Of course, a lot depends on the individual qualities of the person, the trading style and the platform on which you are trading. You need to take the choice of a crypto exchange very seriously (https://cryptwerk.com/post/how-to-choose-the-right-cryptocurrency-exchange-for-you/).

Edited November 23, 2023 by Samy
added some details

[Dodo]

14 hours ago, Samy said:

In fact, cryptocurrency is now a tool for hiding wealth due to its weak regulation. I believe that it has a future, but first, we need to weed out a bunch of empty coins and tighten regulation on the main coin like BTC. I have a friend who invests in cryptocurrencies and has a good profit. But I also have friends who have lost everything. Of course, a lot depends on the individual qualities of the person, the trading style and the platform on which you are trading. You need to take the choice of a crypto exchange very seriously (https://cryptwerk.com/post/how-to-choose-the-right-cryptocurrency-exchange-for-you/).

I am sure there are a lot of barrels of cash at certain coordinates somewhere, those are not visible on the blockchain.

Regulation is happening, its no longer weak. Ripple won their case against the SEC, Cz of binance plead guilty to money laundering and now Binance are compliant to US regulations. There are many things going on, and things are looking better and better every day. 

[vibv]

On 21.11.2023 at 11:48 AM, Dodo said:

The other point Leo said was not to mix art with investing, but as a guy who has been learning technical analysis for a long time, I can see the chart and patterns within it as art, a mathematical kind of art. The numbers are dancing and if you have an eye for what painting to look at and know how the patterns created behave, you can enjoy some really high reward-low risk setups which someone who doesnt look at chart will miss. 

Another common similarty between art and charts is that charts are using fibonacci, the golden ratio, which is the same ratio used in the Mona Lisa itself, used by many famous artists, as it makes things more beautiful. The golden ratio is found everywhere in nature too, so by seeing the charts following the golden ratio is to see they are perhaps a natural phenomenon rather than a man made scam manipulated and controlled by scheming individuals who want your money. 

In conclusion, cryptocurrency is not a scam, it behaves very technically accurate on the charts. It is there to solve a miriad of problems and there are more options than the one Bitcoin to research and invest in. Altcoins are all forms of different vehicles designed for different purpose and without them, crypto is just not useful at all. 

LOL 

The basic idea of the technology of crypto is really fascinating, but the whole space has been corrupted by human ego even more than mainstream finances.

[FourCrossedWands]

To be fair. It's fascinating that thousands of people adopted crypto and use it daily instead of classic fiat currencies, but it has still a long way to become a "normies" medium of exchange.

[ted73104]

@Dodo I agree with you. I bought some bitcoin a while back, the next bitcoin halving is almost here. Everyone should join the revolution and learn about crypto!

[Dabidoe]

Crypto is first and foremost a secure decentralized technology platform. Currency is a store of value. The idea is to bridge the two, not necessarily make a get rich scheme.

The thing that fucks people up about cryptocurrency is they see it as a lottery ticket not a piece of technology. If you study the origins of it the people who make it (the real ones, like Vitalik, Hoskinson, Nakamoto white papers not the douchebags trying to scam with a 30 minute built shitcoin) they care first and foremost about expanding the functionality of digital transactions - not some ballooning value get rich scheme. 

We all pay for tons of shit online using credit cards and banks that do all sorts of goofy shit like fractional reserve banking and worse and yet when someone wants to try and do something to take power back to individuals away from these greedy centralized institutions they get lambasted, It's going to take time but cryptocurrency as a technology is going to be very influential, whether or not the value of current coins goes to 0.

Bitcoin is king of secure decentralized store of value, garbage as a transaction tool.
Ethereum is the most functional decentralized store of value can initiate smart contracts - trustless blind contracts, build NFTs etc...
Cardano is the interesting one that's putting $ into helping build secure digital infrastructure in Africa but small fry comparatively.

People have to see the value of the technology and ignore the whole $ value which the creators of it were less concerned about.

[OBEler]

On 22.11.2023 at 6:03 PM, Dodo said:

Do you know how many jobs crypto created? Just see how many programmers there are on Ethereum alone.

 

Edited 18 hours ago by Dodo

Bitcoin crossed 40.000 dollars tonight!! 

What are your predictions, what happens after the Release of etf bitcoin? 

[Dodo]

18 hours ago, OBEler said:

Bitcoin crossed 40.000 dollars tonight!! 

What are your predictions, what happens after the Release of etf bitcoin? 

My prediction was made some time ago, here is a before and after. I do not read or listen to news, I'm not the guy to ask about ETF, I am solely relying on the chart. Whether its right or wrong remains to be seen but doing well so far.

 

 

 

And here are my Cardano charts as that's what I am looking into the most: Here we see a bull flag with target at 70c which coincidentally is the weekly pivot price.

 

And here is the real juice, if we have to be dreamers, this is the type of bull run I want to see. Very out there, just having some fun 

Edited December 4, 2023 by Dodo

[josemar]

 

On 22/11/2023 at 11:25 AM, josemar said:

For exposure to crypto on the traditional stock exchanges, there is MSTR (Microstrategy) that has around 150k bitcoin, or more volatile and riskier bitcoin miners like RIOT, MARA, HIVE etc.

Since this post, MSTR up 19%, RIOT up 45% etc.

 

 

[josemar]

1 hour ago, Dodo said:

My prediction was made some time ago, here is a before and after. I do not read or listen to news, I'm not the guy to ask about ETF, I am solely relying on the chart. Whether its right or wrong remains to be seen but doing well so far.

 

 

 

And here are my Cardano charts as that's what I am looking into the most: Here we see a bull flag with target at 70c which coincidentally is the weekly pivot price.

 

And here is the real juice, if we have to be dreamers, this is the type of bull run I want to see. Very out there, just having some fun 

Don't marry an altcoin, ADA is still down against BTC 84% since the ATH: