Will Ukraine be the next perpetual cold conflict like in Korea?

[Breakingthewall]

4 hours ago, Hardkill said:

Except that the Russian soldiers don't have nearly as much morale as the Ukrainian soldiers do. Too many of Russia's well-trained and experienced soldiers have already been eliminated

It is impossible to know how many Russian and Ukrainian soldiers have died, the lies are complete without any shame.

I suppose that Putin would want to annex to Russia the Dombass areas, populated by Russians, where there has been a civil war for this reason for years. This war could have been avoided by allowing a referendum audited by the international community, but the Ukrainian government would never have allowed it. In Ukraine, anti-Russian and strongly nationalist sentiment has been brewing for years. The US has seen this and has found the perfect way to push Russia and do business in Ukraine.

The most fertile lands in the world are there, and now there is much to rebuild, and the destruction of the Nord stream was a important point too. The country has been devastated and depopulated, but business will now be good. This is the interest of the US and it will be achieved so this campaign will be a success from their perspective.

[Leo Gura]

43 minutes ago, zazen said:

Pretty sure that would be the end of it.

That's very questionable. Putin has some wacky ideas about Ukraine's status as a nation. He might even be interested in annexing Moldova.

Edited November 11, 2023 by Leo Gura

[Breakingthewall]

20 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

That's very questionable. Putin has some wacky ideas about Ukraine's status as a nation. He might even be interested in annexing Moldova.

Moldavia has nothing. No resources. Why Putin would be interested in it?

[docs20]

On 10/11/2023 at 3:12 PM, Leo Gura said:

No way, Ukriane does not have the manpower or resources to hold out much longer. Russia will likely win this war within a year and Ukriane will be forced to capitulate to Russian demands.

Mmmh I don't think that the US or EU would let that happen that easily. Probably the will compromise just on Donbass

[Hello from Russia]

4 hours ago, Breakingthewall said:

Moldavia has nothing. No resources. Why Putin would be interested in it?

Why not? 

[Breakingthewall]

Just now, Hello from Russia said:

Why not? 

The Ukraine issue is complex. I suppose you know that Stalin cut off supplies, the Holodomor occurred and millions of Ukrainians died. repopulation by Russian speakers, etc., and the transfer of Crimea to Ukraine by Nikita Khruchov, who was Ukrainian, in 1954.

Crimea is of enormous strategic importance and also has enormous gas fields. As I suppose you know, the coup d'état in Ukraine was carried out by anti-Russian Ukrainian nationalists. In Zelensky's electoral program is to recover Crimea. They have been bombing Russians in Dombas for 10 years, the Azov battalion, an army with Nazi insignia, there have been massacres of Russians, etc.

When Putin decides to invade Ukraine it is for these reasons, not because he is sitting stroking a cat while laughing planning to conquer the world. The Americans knew this and since 2014 they have been putting pressure on it. Victoria Nuland with her "fuck the Europeans", Biden, who in 2014 was the person who ran everything in that area... this conflict has been completely simplified in the West, the Western press has become a joke after this. In short, it's a local conflict, not the beginning of a plan of a megalomaniac

[Hardkill]

8 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

They have a million more soldiers they could bring in.

He could send a million more soldiers that suck and are very poorly trained.

 

Either way, again, even if Putin and Russia win the fight in the conventional sense, they still totally lost a tremendous amount of economic power, military power, and geopolitical power. Not to mention, the immense amount of lives and military that they've already lost and will continue to lose. Russia will inevitably come out as much much weaker nation than it ever was before.

[Starlight321]

8 hours ago, Breakingthewall said:

Moldavia has nothing. No resources. Why Putin would be interested in it?

@Breakingthewall moldova has a huge russian speaking minority which has self declared independence from moldova and there are some russian troops stationed. So if ukraine collapses they will probably try to annex all the ukrainian territory (which he considers russian) to moldova. That would also solve some russian security issues. 

 

 

Just to explain the general situation:

I read every few weeks articles from the kiyv independent and they interview the front soldiers and they try to keep it positive but the picture the soldiers convey is very bleak. 

They have big shortages in artillary rounds for example. The amount of artillary shells provided costs 3M dollar a day and to match the russian fire power, they would have to get at least 4 times the amount of shells and additonally pieces of artillary abd the europeans haven't yet signifucantly increased the production. Western ammunition often costs more because of quality and precision.

Another problem is that ukraine is running out of seasoned and professional fighters. Some batellions are at the front since beginning of the war and the best fighters and nationalists are used for the hottest battles and have losses up to 95 percent over the years and they often fill up ranks with drafted men with only 3 weeks training and they can't even spare men as instructors for training.

Meanwhile russia probably can avoid another draft because they have a bigger population. if they can believed, they have 400k soldiers recruted this year by different means, what sounds probable due to the framing as new patriotic war (in fashion like against nazi germany) and the incorporation of mercenaries into the army.

I don't know how well the new russian recruits are trained but it seems that there have been made improvements.

Another problen is the lack of air power and drones.

There are several other reasons which play into the situation but these are the most important ones.

Edited November 11, 2023 by Starlight321

[ZenSwift]

16 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

 To win a war you have to be willing to sacrifice more than your opponent.

Noted. 

[Karmadhi]

On 11/10/2023 at 9:52 PM, Lila9 said:

He doesn't consider Ukraine as something that deserves soverty or separate identification, in his mind it's part of Russia. 

I think he considers the Russian speaking parts of Ukraine as part of Russia, not all of Ukraine. I doubt he would annex Kiev or the west part which is actually ethnic Ukrainian, the east is mostly ethnic Russians that speak Russian and therefore Putin feels entitled to take that part.

[Karmadhi]

On 11/11/2023 at 2:40 AM, Leo Gura said:

It really depends on what kind of deal Putin is willing to settle for

If it is just the Eastern parts of Ukraine which are mostly ethnic Russian then I think they should give those to Russia. Ukraine is a big country, they will be fine without those lands I think. 

Also why would areas with 80% ethnic Russians be in Ukraine anyway? Makes no sense to me.

Usually the land has people from that land, otherwise it does not belong there.

Edited November 12, 2023 by Karmadhi

[Breakingthewall]

7 hours ago, Starlight321 said:

moldova has a huge russian speaking minority which has self declared independence from moldova and there are some russian troops stationed. So if ukraine collapses they will probably try to annex all the ukrainian territory (which he considers russian) to moldova. That would also solve some russian security issues. 

Could be, but it is not economically interesting.big problem, small benefits. I'd say that it's enough ,but who knows

7 hours ago, Starlight321 said:

Just to explain the general situation:

I read every few weeks articles from the kiyv independent and they interview the front soldiers and they try to keep it positive but the picture the soldiers convey is very bleak. 

They have big shortages in artillary rounds for example. The amount of artillary shells provided costs 3M dollar a day and to match the russian fire power, they would have to get at least 4 times the amount of shells and additonally pieces of artillary abd the europeans haven't yet signifucantly increased the production. Western ammunition often costs more because of quality and precision.

Another problem is that ukraine is running out of seasoned and professional fighters. Some batellions are at the front since beginning of the war and the best fighters and nationalists are used for the hottest battles and have losses up to 95 percent over the years and they often fill up ranks with drafted men with only 3 weeks training and they can't even spare men as instructors for training.

Meanwhile russia probably can avoid another draft because they have a bigger population. if they can believed, they have 400k soldiers recruted this year by different means, what sounds probable due to the framing as new patriotic war (in fashion like against nazi germany) and the incorporation of mercenaries into the army.

I don't know how well the new russian recruits are trained but it seems that there have been made improvements.

Another problen is the lack of air power and drones.

There are several other reasons which play into the situation but these are the most important ones.

Edited 7 hours ago by Starlight321

In my opinion, leading Ukraine to destruction, the death of so many people and the exile of many more is a terrible crime, and in my opinion the main responsible is the US, but it is only one point of view. the idea was to humiliate russia, and russia can't allow this if it wants to remain being russia, then disaster happens, and a lot of horrible sons of bitches make a lot of money. this war is extremely disgusting

Edited November 12, 2023 by Breakingthewall

[Leo Gura]

When this war started the Belorussian president accidently showed a slide wherein they planned to invade Moldova after they succeed in Ukraine.

Putin def had his eye on Moldova 2 years ago. But then again he expected a quick victory over Ukraine so not sure how far he wants to push his luck.

Edited November 12, 2023 by Leo Gura

[Breakingthewall]

This war is a very serious matter. The US, with its game of fuck the Russians by arming Ukraine and pushing it towards destruction, has awakened the bear. Now Russia is the military power of the world. No one can mobilize an army like that willing to fight to the death. This represents a big change. Once you know that you are the strongest in the yard, obviously you start to set conditions.