Will Ukraine be the next perpetual cold conflict like in Korea?

[Basman]

-Or like Israel-Palestine before it went hot again recently?

I'm not an expert, but it seems that the way the conflict is headed is towards an eventual state of rest as opposed to a conclusive end similar to how North and South Korea are still technically at war but without any actual fighting happening currently. Russia and Ukraine seem to be at a stalemate, where both sides are too entrenched defensively to budge.

If no decisive victory or lose takes place, won't the conflict eventually peter out and turn cold? Where both sides are still at war technically but simply resume business as usual.

Leading to my second question, is it viable for Ukraine to be inducted into NATO? If NATO membership is a determining factor for Russia to invade Ukraine, won't the induction cause more conflict in the future?

[Sucuk Ekmek]

It's unlikely, Russia does not recognize Ukraine as a nation. According to them there are no Ukrainians and their land.

Also NATO doesn't look good. Only USA and UK sent naval support to Israel. Perhaps there are disagraments in NATO and they don't want to get involved this time.

I would say don't be suprised if NATO give up on Ukraine. It's a lost cause for NATO and they know that.

[Basman]

@Sucuk Ekmek What do you think will happen exactly? Will Russia conquer all of Ukraine or just parts of it and that'll be the end of the war?

[Leo Gura]

No way, Ukriane does not have the manpower or resources to hold out much longer. Russia will likely win this war within a year and Ukriane will be forced to capitulate to Russian demands.

[Karmadhi]

15 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

No way, Ukriane does not have the manpower or resources to hold out much longer. Russia will likely win this war within a year and Ukriane will be forced to capitulate to Russian demands.

I dont understand what is the rationale of Ukraine for continuing to fight when they cannot possibly win. It just causes more deaths for them unnecessarily and it further weakness their position on the negotiation table when the time comes to discuss capitulation.  

Do you find it wise what Ukraine is doing?

[Sucuk Ekmek]

3 hours ago, Basman said:

@Sucuk Ekmek What do you think will happen exactly? Will Russia conquer all of Ukraine or just parts of it and that'll be the end of the war?

I don't know what will happen exactly. I don't think Russia wants the whole country, only spesific parts. Rest of the country can remain as a puppet state but the name of it can not be Ukraine. 

I am no Russian historian but they see the existance of Ukraine as a slip.

[JTL]

@Leo Gura

1 hour ago, Leo Gura said:

No way, Ukriane does not have the manpower or resources to hold out much longer. Russia will likely win this war within a year and Ukriane will be forced to capitulate to Russian demands.

ohh, what make you say that? Even with all the us military aid ? I can see that the oblasts that russia has annexed will probaley go, but not the whole country. 

[Basman]

3 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

No way, Ukriane does not have the manpower or resources to hold out much longer. Russia will likely win this war within a year and Ukriane will be forced to capitulate to Russian demands.

Its joever 😞

My guess from what I've read is that Russia doesn't want the entirety of Ukraine, but will install a puppet government to act as a buffer between it and NATO.

[Lila9]

If Ukraine was as strong/developed as south Korea, a cold war between Ukraine and Russia would have been a reasonable possibility.

But from what it looks like, Putin doesn't look like he's going to give up until he gets the entire Ukraine. He doesn't consider Ukraine as something that deserves soverty or separate identification, in his mind it's part of Russia. 

[Basman]

10 minutes ago, Lila9 said:

If Ukraine was as strong/developed as south Korea, a cold war between Ukraine and Russia would have been a reasonable possibility.

But from what it looks like, Putin doesn't look like he's going to give up until he gets the entire Ukraine. He doesn't consider Ukraine as something that deserves soverty or separate identification, in his mind it's part of Russia. 

Unless I'm mistaken, Putin doesn't want to border with a NATO country, which he would if he annexed Ukraine proper.

[Leo Gura]

11 hours ago, Karmadhi said:

I dont understand what is the rationale of Ukraine for continuing to fight when they cannot possibly win. It just causes more deaths for them unnecessarily and it further weakness their position on the negotiation table when the time comes to discuss capitulation.

The stronger Ukraine fights the better deal they can probably get. So it's not just a binary thing. They will have to negitiate with Russia over how much land they will lose.

11 hours ago, Karmadhi said:

Do you find it wise what Ukraine is doing?

It really depends on what kind of deal Putin is willing to settle for. Putin's demands may be too unreasonable. I don't know.

9 hours ago, JTL said:

@Leo Gura

ohh, what make you say that? Even with all the us military aid ? I can see that the oblasts that russia has annexed will probaley go, but not the whole country. 

Military aid is starting to fail to work as Ukraine runs out of manpower. They can't hold out forever, but Russia can.

Edited November 11, 2023 by Leo Gura

[Raze]

2 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

The stronger Ukraine fights the better deal they can probably get. So it's not just a binary thing. They will have to negitiate with Russia over how much land they will lose.

It really depends on what kind of deal Putin is willing to settle for. Putin's demands may be too unreasonable. I don't know.

Military aid is starting to fail to work as Ukraine runs out of manpower. They can't hold out forever, but Russia can.

But Ukraine’s best negotiation position would have been earlier in the war, as currently Russia knows they can’t hold out as long. In the end holding off on negotiations just needlessly killed Ukrainians.

[Leo Gura]

2 hours ago, Raze said:

But Ukraine’s best negotiation position would have been earlier in the war, as currently Russia knows they can’t hold out as long. In the end holding off on negotiations just needlessly killed Ukrainians.

I don't know how true that is. Early on everyone was predicting Ukraine would lose within weeks.

Nobody on either side expected Ukraine to put up as good a fight as they have.

Edited November 11, 2023 by Leo Gura

[Raze]

6 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

I don't know how true that is. Early on everyone was predicting Ukraine would lose within weeks.

Nobody on either side expected Ukraine to put up as good a fight as they have.

That was before the war, Ukraine shocked everyone by withstanding well and retaking territory but now Russia has been inching forward 

[Leo Gura]

It all depends on Putin's terms, which I don't know. The key question in all this is: What does Putin want to end this war? Does he even want to end it? Or does he want to grab all of Ukraine? I dunno. If Putin wants all of Ukraine then there can't really be a settlement, it must be a fight to the death.

But also, realistically Ukraine is gonna have to give up some land to Putin in the end. They are too weak for a better deal.

Edited November 11, 2023 by Leo Gura

[Raze]

1 minute ago, Leo Gura said:

It all depends on Putin's terms, which I don't know. The key question in all this is: What does Putin want to end this war? Does he even want to end it? Or does he want to grab all of Ukraine. I dunno. If Putin wants all of Ukraine then there can't really be a settlement, it must be a fight to the death.

It’s much more likely now he won’t be reasonable and will demand more if not all of Ukraine, Ukraines current counter offensive is failing and they are risking losing support as NATO is focusing on Israel, even US politicians are coming out against funding Ukraine. NATO’s objective to completely drive out Russia is looking to be an abject failure. 

[Leo Gura]

6 minutes ago, Raze said:

NATO’s objective to completely drive out Russia is looking to be an abject failure. 

The problem is that NATO is not fighting, so they really shouldn't have any such objectives. A military objective only makes sense if you are willing to fight for it.

This whole thing matters way more to Putin than to NATO. Which is why Putin has the winning hand. To win a war you have to be willing to sacrifice more than your opponent. NATO is not serious about sacrificing. And Putin uses that against them.

Edited November 11, 2023 by Leo Gura

[Hardkill]

42 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

The problem is that NATO is not fighting, so they really shouldn't have any such objectives. A military objective only makes sense if you are willing to fight for it.

This whole thing matters way more to Putin than to NATO. Which is why Putin has the winning hand. To win a war you have to be willing to sacrifice more than your opponent. NATO is not serious about sacrificing. And Putin uses that against them.

Except that the Russian soldiers don't have nearly as much morale as the Ukrainian soldiers do. Too many of Russia's well-trained and experienced soldiers have already been eliminated. I don't think Russia really has a lot of strong soldiers left. Also, the Russian military strategies and tactics are more primitive and more disorganized than Ukraine's military. Plus, the Russian military doesn't have weapons that are as good as the ones that NATO has provided to Ukraine. 

Besides even if Russia ends up winning the conventional war, it will ultimately become a very pyrrhic victory for Putin and his country.

Edited November 11, 2023 by Hardkill

[Leo Gura]

3 hours ago, Hardkill said:

I don't think Russia really has a lot of strong soldiers left.

They have a million more soldiers they could bring in.

Edited November 11, 2023 by Leo Gura

[zazen]

5 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

It all depends on Putin's terms, which I don't know. The key question in all this is: What does Putin want to end this war? Does he even want to end it? Or does he want to grab all of Ukraine? I dunno. If Putin wants all of Ukraine then there can't really be a settlement, it must be a fight to the death.

But also, realistically Ukraine is gonna have to give up some land to Putin in the end. They are too weak for a better deal.

The current occupied areas by the Russians were part of Russia historically and the population there were more pro Russian so he could just take that land and have a strategic win + gain respect domestically. Occupying the other parts of Ukraine would be never ending struggle as they are more heavily opposed to Russia - it would be a Israel/Palestine situation that never ends. 

Putin got what was Russia's historically and further created a buffer zone to secure Russia against Nato. Pretty sure that would be the end of it. The West also want to shift resources to the Middle East for the war on terror 2.0.