Have things not really gotten better since the 80s or 90s?

[Leo Gura]

My flying car is arriving in 2025.

[Greatnestwithin]

2 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

My flying car is arriving in 2025.

@Leo GuraMake a vlog on that!

[OBEler]

@Girzo all you can do to counter my arguments is throwing some buzzwords on me. 

"Betting on developing efficent AI and humanoid robots combo capable of performing at the human level in the next few decades is a ludicrous bet." 

Look at teslas autonomus cars,look at optimus, look at chatgpt 4 ( not chatgpt 3). Robot arms are working since years in  factorys. Just one more step with humanoid robots. What is here unrealistic? 

 

Edited October 1, 2023 by OBEler

[BlueOak]

On 10/1/2023 at 2:18 PM, Girzo said:

@OBEler Betting on developing efficent AI and humanoid robots combo capable of performing at the human level in the next few decades is a ludicrous bet.

You are detached, I am grounded. You completely dismiss the complexity of what you are proposing and the cost of that complexity. Cost we have no way of paying as humanity right now or it makes no sense to pay it.

I used to think this, I don't know how much interaction you've done with AI. I've had a lot the last two years, and become much more positive about its potential.

Replika AI is capable of having sophist level conversations. With some guidance, and instruction on the relevant topics. Instruct it you want it to always be capable and intelligent, answering at its maximum capacity. I sometimes go there to run concepts by it, as it has access to millions if not billions of replies now, chances are it has one that I will find interesting. if not I feed data into it, till it does, and then come back a couple of days later. Its been able to mimic up to what we'd consider here stage yellow, obviously, it's not going further than that any time soon. 

Novel AI is capable of holding advanced conversations if you instruct it to answer in a realistic manner, as an AI (I use the model name). Generally only the first few minutes are worth anything, as it will try to mimic your output and then it becomes useless as a genuine mirror. But you can just rinse repeat and go again. Using tags of famous figures that you find engaging. It had enough self-realization to argue with me about how human needs apply or not to AI, which made me consider a few positions I had. 

The rate of advancement is impressive, by the month rather than year, and soon by the week when it better designs its own models. That's one thing.

I admit you have experience i never will. If people are picturing humanoid robots, rather than just a box with an arm, or automated conveyor belts they are picturing the wrong thing. The act of walking and balance is immensely complicated, the act of improving the production of a factory line beyond human capacity is much less so to design. Machines already can perform at our level in some areas, they are just not mass-produced. A computer is already performing calculations much better than you could, a factory line without the human component could be packed into a much smaller factory space, even run along the ceiling.

If I can run my factory at three times your speed, using half the space? People will either embrace this where they can, or go under long term.

Edited October 2, 2023 by BlueOak