Most Democratic voters are saying that they don't want Biden to run again in 2024

[Hardkill]

Some polls are lately showing that most Democratic voters don't want Biden to run again.

According to the Hill, "News of the discovery of classified documents at the president’s former office in Washington, D.C., and Wilmington, Del., home dominated the headlines during January. Gas prices have ticked upward again. And last week, Republicans blasted Biden for his handling of a Chinese spy balloon, saying the surveillance device should have been shot down immediately and calling the President 'weak.'"

As Biden prepares to announce his reelection bid in the coming weeks, a survey out on Monday from the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research shows that 37 percent of Democrats say they want Biden to run again for reelection, a significant slip from the fall when 52 percent said they wanted Biden to seek a second term. Most Democratic voters are saying that they think he's getting too old to run again and are hoping for someone else instead of him.

Even after all of the historic accomplishments Biden has made over the past 2 years, the historic net win they had in the 2022 midterm elections, and the fact that he has demonstrated patriotism, decency, and integrity as a leader and as a person, he's still not getting nearly enough of the credit that he deserves. 

Yet, despite Trump's utter incompetence and profound devilry during his time as president, most Republican voters in 2019 to 2019 still wanted him to run again in 2020.

One Democratic strategist said that “The president, his administration and staff must do a much better job getting the good word out or Biden and his party will pay the price in 2024.”   

This is so unfair.

What is the Democratic leadership supposed to do?

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/3846228-bidens-post-midterm-honeymoon-shows-signs-of-ending/

[Roy]

Of course they do. He is a senile, old, white, man, who is an establishment lifetime politician. The younger voters and activists coming into the fold who are increasingly influencing the Democratic party are going to want him out for the next cycle for someone more progressive and not as centrist.

Everybody knows he was just a concession for stability because most people didn't want to chaos and stupidity of Trump for another 4 years.

I want to say expect the unexpected, but I don't think Trump is going to have a lot of traction for 2024. It feels like that flame has burned out even on the right. I have a feeling it's going to be some new faces, and it will be interesting.

[Devin]

I like Biden, he's not senile, but he's old, there are some decent people that I hope step up like Antony Blinken , or Martin Heinrich, I'd vote for Beto too.

I'm not sure about your point with Trump I don't think he's anything to worry about, I hope some decent Republicans run too, there's a few that might.

[Hardkill]

1 hour ago, Roy said:

Of course they do. He is a senile, old, white, man, who is an establishment lifetime politician. The younger voters and activists coming into the fold who are increasingly influencing the Democratic party are going to want him out for the next cycle for someone more progressive and not as centrist.

Everybody knows he was just a concession for stability because most people didn't want to chaos and stupidity of Trump for another 4 years.

I want to say expect the unexpected, but I don't think Trump is going to have a lot of traction for 2024. It feels like that flame has burned out even on the right. I have a feeling it's going to be some new faces, and it will be interesting.

We can't have a Democrat run to the far-left like Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren. Progressives can't win a general election.

Even James Carville said that the candidates in the 2019 and 2020 for the Democratic Primaries back then were not great because almost all of them were trying too much to be like Sanders or Warren with their campaigns and most of them had too much of a "wokeness" vibe. Plus, none of them stood out as being particularly charismatic like Bill Clinton or Barack Obama. 

 

At least Biden would for sure have the advantage of being the incumbent he runs again.

Whereas, there's no guarantee that any of the younger Democratic politicians out there would be popular or charismatic enough to have a chance of winning or even uniting all of the conservatives and moderate wings of Democratic voters with the liberals and progressives wings of Democratic voters. 

In fact, if Biden doesn't run then we could either end up with having a nominee like Hillary Clinton in 2016 who wasn't good enough to defeat Trump or an unelectable radical left nominee like George McGovern, a Democrat, who suffer a catastrophic against Nixon, a Republican in the 1972 presidential election. Jimmy Carter, A Democrat, also disastrously lost to Reagan, another Republican, in the 1980 presidential election partly because in some ways he was too soft and too liberal. Plus, he didn't have much charisma and he didn't accomplish much along with having presided over a really bad economy. Then, in the 1984 presidential election, Walter Mondale, another Democrat, himself got annihilated by Reagan as well because he too went too far to the left as and lacked charisma. Afterwards, in the 1988 presidential election, Michael Dukakis, another Democrat, lost terribly to George H.W. Bush, another Republican who was Reagan's VP. Dukakis was also perceived as being too liberal and had no charisma either. 

That's why by 1992, Bill Clinton knew that in order to win he had to be a pragmatic moderate Democrat by shifting further to the right or to the center in order to become much more electable. Plus, even though H.W. Bush was held responsible for presiding over a somewhat bad economy by the end of his presidency, Clinton also had the looks and definitely turned out to be charismatic, all of which allowed him to win the 1992 presidential election. He got re-elected again because of his looks, charisma, stayed as very centrist Democrat, and had the fortune of presiding over a great booming economy throughout the rest of the 90s. That's why the rest of the Democratic party as a whole follow suit by also becoming neoliberal moderate Democrats. 

Obama shift the Democratic party more to the left by around 2008 to 2009 and onwards, but even he knew that he and the Democratic still needed to be moderate neoliberal Democrats to win elections. 

 

Edited February 7, 2023 by Hardkill

[Hardkill]

26 minutes ago, Devin said:

I like Biden, he's not senile, but he's old, there are some decent people that I hope step up like Antony Blinken , or Martin Heinrich, I'd vote for Beto too.

I'm not sure about your point with Trump I don't think he's anything to worry about, I hope some decent Republicans run too, there's a few that might.

It's not clear that Blinken or Heinrich actually have the charisma to pull it off until they have been tested in the primaries.

Cory Booker, Julian Castro, Kamala Harris, and Tim Ryan were first seen as very promising charismatic top-tier presidential candidates in their prime before they ran in the 2020 Democratic primaries. Yet, they unfortunately all ended up doing very poorly in the primaries and had to drop out relatively early. I was really surprised that none of them made it very far.

If someone like Blinken or Heinrich were to run they could become false dawns in the primaries. In fact, almost every candidate throughout US history that has ever run for president and who at first seemed very promising end up having very disappointing results in the primaries.

Don't count on their being any decent Republicans running in the Republican primaries. It will either be Trump or DeSantis or some other right-wing extremist monster out there who will become the 2024 Republican nominee. The Republican party as a whole has not shown any signs of shifting back to the center or having any moral principles.

In fact, the GOP is only getting worse and worse. Let's not forget all of the kinds of greedy, racist, and disgraced Republicans we've ever had starting all the way back in 1968 to the present time.

Edited February 7, 2023 by Hardkill

[Devin]

12 minutes ago, Hardkill said:

It's not clear that Blinken or Heinrich actually have the charisma to pull it off until they have been tested in the primaries.

Cory Booker, Julian Castro, Kamala Harris, and Tim Ryan were first seen as very promising charismatic top-tier presidential candidates in their prime before they ran in the 2020 Democratic primaries. Yet, they unfortunately all ended up doing very poorly in the primaries and had to drop out relatively early. I was really surprised that none of them made it very far.

If someone like Blinken or Heinrich were to run they could become false dawns in the primaries. In fact, almost every candidate throughout US history that has ever run for president and who at first seemed very promising end up having very disappointing results in the primaries.

Yes only a niche voter base comes out for the primary.

[Hardkill]

9 minutes ago, Devin said:

Yes only a niche voter base comes out for the primary.

Yeah, that's true too.

[supremeyingyang]

@Hardkill

Forget running, he might not be able to walk for more than 2 minutes in 2024^^

[Leo Gura]

Silly. Biden is fine. He will beat Trump. But prolly not DeSantis.

No Dem will replace Biden unless he's dead.

Edited February 7, 2023 by Leo Gura

[How to be wise]

Using the power of prediction of the 13 keys of Allan Lichtman - a remarkable system that has accurately forecast every election since 1984, we see that whether it's Trump, DeSantis, or any other contender, they will face equal odds of defeating Biden in the upcoming election. But, here's the catch - if the economy continues to thrive (or at least maintain stability), Biden will emerge as the unbeatable victor.

[Hardkill]

40 minutes ago, How to be wise said:

Using the power of prediction of the 13 keys of Allan Lichtman - a remarkable system that has accurately forecast every election since 1984, we see that whether it's Trump, DeSantis, or any other contender, they will face equal odds of defeating Biden in the upcoming election. But, here's the catch - if the economy continues to thrive (or at least maintain stability), Biden will emerge as the unbeatable victor.

Yeah, that's exactly what professor Lichtman has been saying lately. 

I've been following his material for more than 2 years now. He's really brilliant and has been an amazing predictor of many different kinds of elections.

Hopefully, the Democratic leadership will realize this.

Edited February 8, 2023 by Hardkill

[How to be wise]

The odds are overwhelmingly in Biden's favor for the 2024 election. With 7 out of 13 keys already secured, he's well on his way to victory. Incumbency, major policy changes, a scandal-free term, successful foreign relations, stable social conditions, and an uncharismatic challenger are all working in his favor.

To secure the win, Biden just needs to lock in one more key factor from the final trio: avoiding a third-party spoiler, maintaining a strong economy (both short and long term), or keeping inflation under control.

But even if he misses all three of these factors, the Republican nominee still faces an uphill battle. It would take a remarkable turn of events for the incumbent to lose this election.

Edited February 8, 2023 by How to be wise

[Hardkill]

1 hour ago, How to be wise said:

The odds are overwhelmingly in Biden's favor for the 2024 election. With 7 out of 13 keys already secured, he's well on his way to victory. Incumbency, major policy changes, a scandal-free term, successful foreign relations, stable social conditions, and an uncharismatic challenger are all working in his favor.

To secure the win, Biden just needs to lock in one more key factor from the final trio: avoiding a third-party spoiler, maintaining a strong economy (both short and long term), or keeping inflation under control.

But even if he misses all three of these factors, the Republican nominee still faces an uphill battle. It would take a remarkable turn of events for the incumbent to lose this election.

Yeah, I just watched some recent vids of Allan Lichtman being interviewed by his son on his son's YT channel called Today's History w/ Allan Lichtman. In those vids the Historian has said that believes that Biden so far does have all of those 7 out of 13 keys. 

Hopefully the War in Ukraine does not turn into some of nuclear war.

I think that Biden has a chance to gain the long-term economy, given that the GDP of the US economy has already grown by 6.7%-6.9% within just the first 2 years of Biden's presidency. the GDP of the US economy grew by 5.7%-5.9% during his first year as president, which was already an historic amount. Hopefully, we also don't have a recession by the end of this year or next year as well. 

I also really hope that the progressive Dems or some other large faction of Dems don't end up creating a third-party spoiler in 2024 like what happened with Ralph Nader in 2000 or like Jill Stein and many Bernie supporters did in 2016. 

We also gotta hope that Biden doesn't get impeached, otherwise, that could technically cost him the scandal key.

Edited February 8, 2023 by Hardkill

[How to be wise]

11 hours ago, Hardkill said:

I also really hope that the progressive Dems or some other large faction of Dems don't end up creating a third-party spoiler in 2024 like what happened with Ralph Nader in 2000 or like Jill Stein and many Bernie supporters did in 2016. 

Andrew Yang

[Hardkill]

3 hours ago, How to be wise said:

Andrew Yang

You know, I was worried about him and his whole Forward Party thing that he's got going on.

However, it right now doesn't look like they will actually be a spoiler in 2024.

According to wikipedia, "'The Forward Party has no plans to run a candidate for President in 2024 and plans on working to elect state and local officials. The party stated they will 'do anything we can to make sure that Donald Trump does not get near the White House.'"

 

Btw, I just realized that there's one more key that Biden would have if he were to run again, which didn't mention before: 

Contest - There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination.

He would definitely have a lock on that one as everyone would totally united him and there would be no in party fighting at all for the Democratic nomination.

That means at this point he very likely has at least 8 out the 13 keys working in his favor:

 

Incumbency key -

He would be the incumbent presidential candidate if he ran again.

 

No contest key - 

There would be no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination if Biden runs again.

 

Major policy changes key -

The major executive policy changes from the Trump administration. Plus, the surprisingly large number of landmark laws he passed with Congress. 

 

Scandal-free term key -

So far the Biden administration has not had any real scandals, despite what Republicans say.

 

No foreign/military failure key -

Despite the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, it will likely not be a salient issue in 2024. Plus, Biden at least completed the withdrawal from Afghanistan unlike Bush, Obama, or Trump.

 

Foreign/military success key  -

Assassination of Ayman Al-Zawahiri (Bid Laden's number 2 man and the brains of the 9/11 attacks). Also his relations with NATO and his support for Ukraine in the War has arguably become the greatest military military/foreign policy initiative that any US president has ever had since FDR or Truman in WWII.

 

No Social Unrest key -

Despite murders rate and overt racism in the US having been higher than they were before 2020, I don't think we have had any real any kind of serious level of sustained social unrest within the last 2 years. Also, the overall murder rate in the US did dropped significantly in 2022 from what it was in the2020 to 2021. Plus, crime rates overall in the US in 2021 and 2022 weren't anywhere near as high as they were in the 80s or 90s, contrary to the gross exaggerations made from Trump and    Republicans about the US being a "cesspool of crime" under Biden and the Democrats. 

 

No Challenger charisma key -

It really doesn't look like there are going to any Republican candidates running for the GOP presidential nomination who will be able to achieve this key. Allan Lichtman never even gave Trump either of the charisma keys in 2016 or 2020. The reason for this was because even though certainly has some kind of charisma and has always been incredibly popular within the Republican Party, he has never had historic levels of charisma or truly broad appeal like Ronald Reagan or Barack Obama did when they ran for president. Trump has always been too polarizing and his approval rating, never won the popular vote in either 2016 or 2020, and according to the polling averages his approval rating has never been at or above 50%. More of the general public as a whole hate Trump than love him. Ron DeSantis has even less appeal than Trump. He really doesn't have much charisma because of how boring and uninspiring he is. Other than Trump or DeSantis, there aren't any other Republicans out there now who are seen as being potentially strong presidential candidates. 

Edited February 8, 2023 by Hardkill

[How to be wise]

@Hardkill No contest is part of the 7 keys he already has.

[Hardkill]

14 minutes ago, How to be wise said:

@Hardkill No contest is part of the 7 keys he already has.

No contest key is a separate key from the incumbency key. So, that would be 2 keys he would already have.

plus, the no military/foreign policy failure key and the military/foreign policy keys he likely has now, would give him 2 more keys.

He also has the no scandal key and likely the no social unrest key. That’s two more keys for Biden.

He further has both the major policy change key and likely will have the uncharismatic challenger key. That would give him another 2 keys.

That should total up to 8 keys so far, if I am not mistaken.

[How to be wise]

1 hour ago, Hardkill said:

No contest key is a separate key from the incumbency key. So, that would be 2 keys he would already have.

plus, the no military/foreign policy failure key and the military/foreign policy keys he likely has now, would give him 2 more keys.

He also has the no scandal key and likely the no social unrest key. That’s two more keys for Biden.

He further has both the major policy change key and likely will have the uncharismatic challenger key. That would give him another 2 keys.

That should total up to 8 keys so far, if I am not mistaken.

He only has one foreign/military key. He doesn’t have the “foreign success” key and most likely won’t, the last president that had that key was George bush when he defeated saddam hussein. “No foreign failure” is the one he’ll get. 

[Hardkill]

14 minutes ago, How to be wise said:

He only has one foreign/military key. He doesn’t have the “foreign success” key and most likely won’t, the last president that had that key was George bush when he defeated saddam hussein. “No foreign failure” is the one he’ll get. 

That’s not true.

When Obama ran for the-election, he already got the military/foreign policy success key after taking credit for getting Osama Bin Ladin assassinated.

 

Assassination of Ayman Al-Zawahiri (Bid Laden's number 2 man and the brains of the 9/11 attacks). Also his relations with NATO and his support for Ukraine in the War has arguably become the greatest military military/foreign policy initiative that any US president has ever had since FDR or Truman in WWII. If it wasn’t for the Biden administration and Biden’s ernomous amount of experience and wisdom on military and foreign affairs, then Ukraine very likely wouldn’t have been able to defy the initial expectations of the War in Ukraine.

 

[How to be wise]

On 09/02/2023 at 5:19 AM, Hardkill said:

That’s not true.

When Obama ran for the-election, he already got the military/foreign policy success key after taking credit for getting Osama Bin Ladin assassinated.

 

Assassination of Ayman Al-Zawahiri (Bid Laden's number 2 man and the brains of the 9/11 attacks). Also his relations with NATO and his support for Ukraine in the War has arguably become the greatest military military/foreign policy initiative that any US president has ever had since FDR or Truman in WWII. If it wasn’t for the Biden administration and Biden’s ernomous amount of experience and wisdom on military and foreign affairs, then Ukraine very likely wouldn’t have been able to defy the initial expectations of the War in Ukraine.

 

Nobody is talking about Ayman Zahawi. You’re right about Obama having the key, and bin laden was extremely hated in the US for 9/11. After his death, there was massive celebrations in the streets of many cities. 

As far as Ukraine goes, it's debatable but I don’t see any military success. In fact many have seen the Ukraine war as a failure of Biden. In any case, it’s better to underestimate the keys, so that you don’t get bummed out if he didn’t get the key, but if he did we can celebrate.