Supreme Court to hear court case that will have huge consequences for US democracy

[DocWatts]

https://www.npr.org/2022/12/07/1140465909/supreme-court-independent-state-legislature-theory

What a ruling on this case (Moore v. Harper) could potentially do is effectively end any meaningful public participation in Presidential elections, as it would give (gerrymandered) state Legislatures the ability to ignore/ overturn the popular vote in their State and award Electoral Votes to the Party that happens to be in power in that State's legislature.

Obviously this has a number of serious consequences for us democracy, as it would more or less end any semblance of competitive elections for the executive branch of the Federal government. 

The practical effect of this could potentially to shift the US from a flawed democracy to what's known as a hybrid (that is, a mixed authoritarian/democratic) regime.

Since the Independent State Legislatures theory overwhelmingly favors Republicans who benefit from gerrymandered state legislatures, its effect would be to shield them from having to compete in competitive elections for control over the Presidency and by extension the executive branch of the Federal government.

Of course anyone who's been paying attention realizes that democratic backsliding in the US is a death by a thousand cuts scenario, since the structure of the Electoral College, US Senate, and US Supreme Court are highly undemocratic.

Edited December 7, 2022 by DocWatts

[Hardkill]

The threats of right-wing authoritarianism seems to never end. 

Though, if the Supreme Court rules in favor of the conservatives/Republicans, I don't think that most Americans will be happy about this. Especially, considering how the midterm elections were in no doubt a referendum on Trumpism and right-wing extremism. There was supposed to be a red wave  in the 2022 midterm elections because the Democrats have been the party in power and have been blamed for inflation, crime, and immigration. Yet, one major reason the red wave didn't happen was because most of the GOP candidates in these midterms scared most of the American people with their election denialism and threats to overturn future election results. 

Besides, practically every Republican, especially all of the Trump backed GOP candidates, lost in practically every secretary of state race, every attorney general race, and every gubernatorial race in every battleground state for the 2024 presidential election.

The Republicans also lost 4 state legislative chambers throughout the entire country to the Democrats including the Minnesota State Senate, the Michigan State Senate, the Michigan State House of Representatives, and the Pennsylvania State House of Representatives. They further lost partisan control of the Alaska State House of Representatives to a bipartisan coalition. Wisconsin Republicans failed to win veto-proof supermajorities in both chambers of the Wisconsin State Assembly. North Carolina Republicans also failed to win veto-proof supermajorities in both chambers of their State General Assembly. I don't think that the Republicans in Georgia won veto-proof supermajorities in either chamber of the Georgia General Assembly. Furthermore, even though gov. Kemp and Secretary of State Raffensperger of Georgia are both Republicans who just easily won re-elect for each of their seats, they are both totally anti-Trump. Nevada Democrats successfully defended control of their legislative chambers in the Nevada Legislature. Arizonan Republicans failed to gained veto-proof supermajorities in either chamber of their state legislature as well. Plus, Arizona will now be governed by a Democrat for the next four years thanks to Katie Hobb's defeat of loony Lake.

It further looks like Congress will soon pass the Electoral Count Act which is supposed to include a number of new guardrails that will further protect our Democracy including this provision:  

"Protection of Each State’s Popular Vote: Strikes a provision of an archaic 1845 law that could be used by state legislatures to override the popular vote in their states by declaring a “failed election” – a term that is not defined in the law. Instead, this legislation specifies that a state could move its presidential election day, which otherwise would remain the Tuesday immediately following the first Monday in November every four years, only if necessitated by “extraordinary and catastrophic” events."

[Hardkill]

There's been more encouraging news on this matter lately.

Apparently, it's not just the three liberal justices and Chief Justice Roberts in the SCOTUS who are totally against the idea of allowing State Legislatures to have the power to just discard or overturn the popular vote in each of their states and award Electoral Votes to the Presidential nominee whose party that happens to be in power in a respective State's legislature. 

After SCOTUS heard the oral arguments for this case that was brought them, even the conservatives justices Amy Coney Barrett and Brett Kanavaugh seemed skeptical about the arguments for allowing State Legislatures to have such unprecedented power over elections.

An expert on this matter said on the Brookings Institute that ".... think the safest thing to say is it’s unlikely that you’re going to have a Supreme Court embrace wholeheartedly the most aggressive version of the independent state legislature theory..."

 

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/12/07/supreme-court-independent-state-legislature-theory-00072713

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/12/7/23498507/supreme-court-moore-harper-amy-coney-barrett-democracy-voting-rights-north-carolina

https://www.brookings.edu/podcast-episode/moore-v-harper-who-has-the-power-to-set-state-election-rules/