Leo, how you think the war in Ukraine will end?

[Daniel347]

Obviously, Leo is not some sort of soothsayer. but still he is a wise guy. so what are your thoughts ?

[Danioover9000]

@Daniel347

12 minutes ago, Daniel347 said:

Obviously, Leo is not some sort of soothsayer. but still he is a wise guy. so what are your thoughts ?

   To me, here are a few ways it could end:

1.The ideal, before any of this happened, is for Ukraine to be a sovereign state that acts as a buffer between NATO and Russia allies.

2. Ukraine may still have the possibility to be a sovereign state after this war, but because of the widespread damages to cities, Ukraine's economy is reduced and must seek out financial aid from outside countries, so, it becomes a weaker buffer state.

3. The war is much more severe, and another compromise, is that Ukraine becomes two: western Ukraine that joins NATO, east Ukraine that becomes Russian territory, and a natural river that separates the two countries. Worse outcome, as NATO and Russia are very close to each other, which provides third parties and domestic/foreign terrorist groups to instigate and escalate tensions between the two.

4. Very unlikely outcome, that all of Ukraine, as a comprise, joins NATO fully, or joins Russia fully.

[Blackhawk]

Actually I think it will probably end with Ukraine taking back everything including Crimea.

I don't think Russia will start nuking Ukraine. But if it does.. then Russia's military will get annihilated in Ukraine by USA and Nato. And that would obviously end with Ukraine taking back everything including Crimea.

Edited November 21, 2022 by Blackhawk

[Leo Gura]

Seems likely that Russia will keep the territory Putin annexed as long as Putin is alive.

There's a good chance Putin will die in the next few years from health problems. Then everything will be up in the air as far as who leads Russia. Very uncertain.

Edited November 21, 2022 by Leo Gura

[StarStruck]

If Russia fails in Ukraine which it will. It will cause major upheaval in the Russian federation. We are witnessing the slow death of a super power. I think the Russian federation won't exist in the near future. George Friedman already explained this would happen in one of his books.

Edited November 22, 2022 by StarStruck

[Roy]

As much as it will cost the Russia, they will likely win this war and claim a bunch of land. As the develop world isn't going to step in militarily to protect what is considered from their eyes an expendable post-soviet state.

As Leo mentioned, Putin isn't long for this world. When he is gone the vacuum will leave a lot of room for chaos. I imagine the younger generation is going to make it difficult for the next appointed dictator to take his place. I also imagine the older brainwashed generation isn't too happy about all their husbands and sons that went off to die, or the stagnant economy.

Whatever future has in store for Russia, it ain't pretty.

[Blackhawk]

6 hours ago, StarStruck said:

We are witnessing the slow death of a super power.

Russia has never been a superpower. Just a great power.

I don't think it's even a great power anymore, just a regional power.

But I think too that the Russian federation will fall.

[Hsinav]

14 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

Seems likely that Russia will keep the territory Putin annexed as long as Putin is alive.

He already lost Cherson back to Ukraine which is the largest and most important region of the four so far annexed.

[Mohammad]

I am from Iran, and mullah who rule my country are one of the biggest allies of Russia, and many people inside Iran believe that mullah are in the pocket of Putin. So nowadays it is obvious to Iranian people that Russia is getting weaker with more chaotic situation, and that is horrible for mullahs because they cannot rely on Russia as much as before. Islamic republic makes shitty weapons, and now Russia is buying weapons from them! Putin is cornered bad... 

I believe both Putin and Mullahs regime may fall or get significantly weaker in the next year or two.

[Danioover9000]

   The greatest concern is who's replacing Putin? And is this person far worse and far more manipulative, to continue Putin's vision at a different angle? That the biggest concern for me, because if this future person is way more cut-throat, we're in big trouble.

[Vrubel]

16 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

Seems likely that Russia will keep the territory Putin annexed as long as Putin is alive.

Ukraine is slowly but steadily taking back land. I see this trend continuing.

Russia's strategy is to slow this advance by digging into trenches and leveraging their bigger numbers as they can always find enough men to (re)fill up those trenches. Russia is making use of some old but theoretically solid military strategies, combining the defensive advantage of ww1 style trench warfare with brutish capitalizing on its larger numbers against a smaller but way stronger force. 

The Union army turned around the civil war when they started capitalizing on their larger numbers by accepting they will take the larger losses and incorporate "cannon-fodder" like tactics during battle. 
The only difference is that back then basically everybody was cannon fodder and generals like Ulysess S Grant were morally tormented and actually cried for their man. I don't think Russian generals and officers share this mentality. 

But the question for Russia remains: will this strategy hold in 21 century-modern warfare?

Also, this winter will be harder on the demoralized Russians rather than the well-equipped Ukrainians. Being a Russian soldier on the Ukrainian front is the last place on earth any human in this world would want to be. 

Edited November 22, 2022 by Vrubel

[Danioover9000]

@Vrubel

1 hour ago, Vrubel said:

Ukraine is slowly but steadily taking back land. I see this trend continuing.

Russia's strategy is to slow this advance by digging into trenches and leveraging their bigger numbers as they can always find enough men to (re)fill up those trenches. Russia is making use of some old but theoretically solid military strategies, combining the defensive advantage of ww1 style trench warfare with brutish capitalizing on its larger numbers against a smaller but way stronger force. 

The Union army turned around the civil war when they started capitalizing on their larger numbers by accepting they will take the larger losses and incorporate "cannon-fodder" like tactics during battle. 
The only difference is that back then basically everybody was cannon fodder and generals like Ulysess S Grant were morally tormented and actually cried for their man. I don't think Russian generals and officers share this mentality. 

But the question for Russia remains: will this strategy hold in 21 century-modern warfare?

Also, this winter will be harder on the demoralized Russians rather than the well-equipped Ukrainians. Being a Russian soldier on the Ukrainian front is the last place on earth any human in this world would want to be. 

   Okay.

   Okay.

   That's because of other developments at that time, that they fought like that.

   Probably not if the USA and NATO countries provided more support and more weaponry and soldiers. Also, given the stage of development, cognitive and moral development, personality types and ego development, states of consciousness, life experiences and other lines of development, from the individual to the collective and societies/cultures, and technological/economic development of those other countries in using new weapons systems against older ways of warfare, probably not. All depending on how it's used.

   Not everyone. You may be speaking on average, but don't forget there are sadists, sadomasochists, psychopaths, sociopaths, narcissists, and manipulative opportunists/impulsive egos in the Russian side as well as all other sides involved in this conflict that love to fight and wage war, they love to kill other people. Some percentage of the population actually love and crave these scenarios to happen as that gives them the opportunity to show off their combative skills and experiences of warfare. Vietnam war, some American soldiers loved fighting and killing, one 0of them even written a book of how spiritual the Vietnam war experiences really are. Speaking of averages, the Slavic cultures, as well as Scandinavian cultures have a history of violent warfare and fighting and raiding, so no, it's not that simple the categorize everyone as the same as those who value world peace and are similar to the hippies or SJWs, that's likely a progressive/socialistic bias there.

[Danioover9000]

   Seems like this thread has run its course @Carl-Richard.

[LordFall]

I doubt that western states will support Ukraine much longer. They have not much to gain from it and their economies are starting to not look great. I could see a country like Iran or China making a deal with Russia to subsidize their economy and help them win the foot battle. Not sure how the economy in Ukraine is doing but the longer this goes on the more ruined and diluted their country is.

All their women are outside their country starting new lives, if this goes on much longer they'll integrate there and not want to come back and Ukraine will just be a bunch of single men that are looking to go elsewhere to start new lives. 

[Danioover9000]

   Interesting take by Beau: