Will Iran's New Revolution be Successful?

[Revolutionary Think]

So any way my parents are from Iran and met in Los Angeles and had me to make a long story short. Now that I see the fervor in the Iranian people and they're fight for regime change it makes me happy. At the same time I am shocked and disgusted at the lengths the regime is willing to go to to straight up kill and murder people in the name of staying in power. At this point it seems like they're willing to kill everyone in the country who is against them with out any remorse or conscience. What do you all think will happen. All I can basically do is pray they are successful from across the pond and maybe write some letters to my representatives. It's interesting to watch but, I feel so bad that they are being treated the way they are just because they want to enjoy the same freedoms that we take for granted in places like Asia, Europe, and America. It really gives me perspective into how priveledged and lucky I am. I don't feel guilty that I have this priveledge and luck because me feeling that way isn't going to help them. I'm just wondering what will. Anyway I just wanted to get this message out there. 

[Joel3102]

I suspect not. I could be wrong  but I think the majority of the people still support the regime. The hardline Conservative party did well in the last elections. Western media will make it seem like it’s on the brink though 

Edited November 8, 2022 by Joel3102

[LordFall]

I don't think so. For regime overthrows, and revolutions you need a faction competing for leadership and the support of the military. AFAIK most of the military leaders actually support the conservative measure of the regime and there is no clear liberal leader that has traction in the country.

I think at best they get the regime to loosen up on 1 or 2 things and then it'll calm people enough to return to the status quo. 

[StarStruck]

Iran's population is like 40-50% minorities. The country is a toxic cesspool of islamism and corruption. From my observation the situation is not sustainable. Especially with the energy prices going down Iran will face a lot of turbulences in the coming years. The people care about bread and games. And they are not allowed to play games and the bread is running out.

[Revolutionary Think]

3 hours ago, StarStruck said:

Iran's population is like 40-50% minorities. The country is a toxic cesspool of islamism and corruption.

Exactly this is why I think it will be successful because nothing like protests throughout the entire country with every single strata of society and not just students has never happened before. One thing is for sure even if there's crackdown after crackdown after crackdown and through pure voilence they kill and arrest even 30% of the country or less protesting things will never ever be the same. 

[LSD-Rumi]

@Revolutionary Think  Wait until Iran starts treating this issue  seriously if protesters get serious about overthrowing the regime. It will be a massacre. Basically 90% of all revolutions fail and end up in massacres, for a simple reason, the government has power,  people don't.

[Revolutionary Think]

2 hours ago, LSD-Rumi said:

if protesters get serious about overthrowing the regime. It will be a massacre.

Not if the military joins the people and goes against the government. How did Egypt have 2 protests that successfully overthrew the governemnt and the same government that is under threat to be overthrown was installed by overthrowing the previous government. Mind you though the sha of Iran was a lot less brutal so I'll concede on that point but, you still never know. 

[LSD-Rumi]

@Revolutionary Think Egypt is a joke compared to Iran. You are talking here about A syria level of brutality. I lt was a unique situation in Egypt but I honestly don't know that much about it.

[Mohammad]

On 11/8/2022 at 4:06 AM, Joel3102 said:

I suspect not. I could be wrong  but I think the majority of the people still support the regime. The hardline Conservative party did well in the last elections. Western media will make it seem like it’s on the brink though 

No brother, you are wrong indeed, the majority do not support the regime, max 15% of the population support the regime, and I am being generous here! It's not even like 10 years ago, most people are going under poverty line, economy is going to toilet, no one is pro regime except those who benefit from them directly. 

The regime has spent tons of money to paint a good picture of itself in international community, but only the Iranians themselves understand the depth of their devilry.

 

19 hours ago, LordFall said:

I don't think so. For regime overthrows, and revolutions you need a faction competing for leadership and the support of the military. AFAIK most of the military leaders actually support the conservative measure of the regime and there is no clear liberal leader that has traction in the country.

I think at best they get the regime to loosen up on 1 or 2 things and then it'll calm people enough to return to the status quo. 

You are right about the military leaders, but the thing is that they are turning against each other, because economy is kinda destroyed, people are all angry especially young generation, and the authorities are all turning against each other, It won't take long for them to try to throw each other under the bus. Iran's situation is a little different from most countries. It's a country with lots and lots of enemies everywhere, so the Iranian people have to fight both with the regime and also outside influence.

And there has been no status quo here for many many years now. People have been only tolerating these cruel morons.

 

14 hours ago, LSD-Rumi said:

@Revolutionary Think  Wait until Iran starts treating this issue  seriously if protesters get serious about overthrowing the regime. It will be a massacre. Basically 90% of all revolutions fail and end up in massacres, for a simple reason, the government has power,  people don't.

Iran is not like Syria, Egypt, or anywhere else. Our main problem is the warped view that outside world has of our situation. Yes, they are brutal, but they will have a limit, because there are lots of struggle between the authorities themselves. Military personnel are extremely against their leaders and pro people. Even among top authorities, lots of their younger generation are outcaste because they are defying their parents. A very very small circle of lower stage blue/red people are controlling the country, and now the chicken has come to roost, They have no more money, People are extremely angry. They may hold it for couple of months, even years, but there is no escape, they will be destroyed. And it's not the first time for Iranian people. Our history is full of wars, every generation. And the people always rebuild their country. I just hope it happens soon, so the less lives get destroyed.

Please, brothers and sisters around the world, raise awareness of the atrocities going on in my country.

Edited November 9, 2022 by Mohammad

[LordFall]

10 minutes ago, Mohammad said:

You are right about the military leaders, but the thing is that they are turning against each other, because economy is kinda destroyed, people are all angry especially young generation, and the authorities are all turning against each other, It won't take long for them to try to throw each other under the bus. Iran's situation is a little different from most countries. It's a country with lots and lots of enemies everywhere, so the Iranian people have to fight both with the regime and also outside influence.

And there has been no status quo here for many many years now. People have been only tolerating these cruel morons.

This is good news and what needs to happen for a revolution to happen. If a military faction turns on the leadership and they relax the religious measures to gain approval from the public, I can see it working. The people themselves can't do much, a modern nation-state can only exist when backed up by a military. 

[Mohammad]

On 11/8/2022 at 4:06 AM, Joel3102 said:

The hardline Conservative party did well in the last elections

Also, there are no elections in Iran. What you call elections in western countries do not exist here! The regime and it's leader will let few of their puppets with minor differences compete in a joke election, and then they will call that dude president, which has no real power. Power is in the hands of the IRGC (militray) and the leader khamenei.

Also, if you work for any sector which is related to government, you have to vote, or else you'll get into different kinds of troubles in the future, so many people who vote in their joke election are forced to. Despite this, in the last election, empty and unaccepted votes came second after this moron Raisi(current so called resident)! and all of the numbers that the state tell international community is fake. So, don't think that there are elections in Iran. We are living in an absolute dictatorship. It wasn't like this 10-15 years ago, there were some competing political parties, but now, there is only one party. A small circle. They control EVERYTHING. But the change is here. 

[Breakingthewall]

I don't think there is hope for iran or any other islamic country. If the revolution is successful, it will be to implant an even more fanatical, closed and crazy regime. Islam is institutionalized madness, the fear of hell and closedness, and it is closing its prey more and more in the countries where it is implanted, since it is supported by the majority of the population. It is a kind of mental cancer that does not seem to have a solution

[Revolutionary Think]

The indepth look at how disgunstingly corrupt this evil government of Iran is! Full of hypocrisy lies theft and double standards. 

 

[Mohammad]

43 minutes ago, Breakingthewall said:

I don't think there is hope for iran or any other islamic country. If the revolution is successful, it will be to implant an even more fanatical, closed and crazy regime. Islam is institutionalized madness, the fear of hell and closedness, and it is closing its prey more and more in the countries where it is implanted, since it is supported by the majority of the population. It is a kind of mental cancer that does not seem to have a solution

See, the problem is that Iran is not an Islamic country. Iran is an Iranian country! Iranians are not Arabs (Not that we have a problem with arabs, they are our brothers like any other nation) Iran is being ruled by a bunch of Islamist extremists, which to be honest, are not muslims themselves because their behavior is everything Islam says a person should not be: thieves, liars, murderers, oppressors...

Majority of population in Iran do not support islamic rule. This is just false. Small minority does.

We do not have problems with muslims. We are muslims! The problem is not Islam. The problem is Evil men using Islam as a cover.

[Gesundheit2]

Nope. Impossible. Especially after all the lessons the Iranian government has learned from the Syrian experience. They have gained immunity.

[Revolutionary Think]

Bullshit the Syrian uprising was nothing compared to this. 

[Mohammad]

Please, do not compare Syria with Iran, these two countries share nothing, these two are not similar in any aspects, be it geopolitical, cultural, economical, historical... Two very different countries, although they might look similar to western countries and people.

[Gesundheit2]

@Mohammad You're right. The Iranian government is a lot more established than Al-Assad.

[Mohammad]

1 hour ago, Gesundheit2 said:

@Mohammad You're right. The Iranian government is a lot more established than Al-Assad.

No, they are not, there are lots of struggle between top authorities in Iran, it's just that this is not obvious to the outside world.

And it's not just about government. Iran is much larger than Syria, and many different factors influence its political condition. Islamic republic is ruled by bunch of old idiots with outdated ideologies, and the only reason they stayed in power throughout all these years is because of money. Iran is very rich. Not just oil, but many other natural resources as well. But now because of their mismanagement, its all going to shit. And many other countries wanted this, a weak Iran, as I said before Iran has many enemies, both historically and contemporarily.

 These old bastards are going to die soon, and their idiotic system will collapse.

[Revolutionary Think]

1 hour ago, Mohammad said:

These old bastards are going to die soon, and their idiotic system will collapse.

And I trust you more you're actually in the country and I'm so disgusted that so many Western people cast doubt on all of you. I have Iranian roots both my parents come from there. Not only are we intelligent and some of the most sophisticated well established people in the world but, some of the most passionate as well. I have no doubt these old fuck faces are going to get what's coming to them and Iranian will throw off their yoke. More power to you stay safe.