Russia and Ukraine making me feel nervous

[Revolutionary Think]

Hi everyone.

So as you know Putin is threatening nukes and we have reporters on the news who are so nonchalant about it and saying it's a possibility. Anyone else feeling a bit on edge? Just asking. 

[Devin]

1 hour ago, Revolutionary Think said:

Hi everyone.

So as you know Putin is threatening nukes and we have reporters on the news who are so nonchalant about it and saying it's a possibility. Anyone else feeling a bit on edge? Just asking. 

I'm more worried about Leo's kangaroo mouse post

He's definitely going to nuke Ukraine. And no one's going to do anything about it. Sorry for Ukrainians, but you don't play defense to a black bear, they have to go into Russia or they're dead, they're not taking the fight into Russia for some asinine reason and it will be the death of them.

Edited October 7, 2022 by Devin

[Pudgey]

@Revolutionary Think

Don't worry. It's fine and completely normal to be on edge - since your entire existence as a human is being threatened.. But, we do not have control over the situation and hopefully it passes by. However, it's not looking good for Russia and its military in Ukraine. If they do use a tactical nukes to counter Ukraine offensive, Russia will be condemned by 90% of the developed and non-developed world. Their economy would completely sink and a brain drain will further ensue. That's not including the response other military powers, such as USA / NATO will have. This will go against the very fiber of a kleptocracy. it needs wealth and power, both within and outside it to survive. 

[Leo Gura]

1 hour ago, Revolutionary Think said:

Hi everyone.

So as you know Putin is threatening nukes and we have reporters on the news who are so nonchalant about it and saying it's a possibility. Anyone else feeling a bit on edge? Just asking. 

Yes, it is troubling. But also, there's no point worrying over things you cannot control.

Edited October 7, 2022 by Leo Gura

[Tyler Robinson]

The worst part being that Russians are not getting rid of Putin. 

The fact that Russians are just sitting with this is very disturbing. 

 

Edited October 7, 2022 by Tyler Robinson

[Galyna]

Being from Ukraine and watching every military specialist possible, I would say yes, and our politicians that I watch on YT are almost positive he will use a tactic nuclear weapon (small radius). 
However, nobody will do anything, they will continue threatening but USA and Europe won’t involve in a conflict. The biggest thing they would do is to respond with another type of weapon, I don’t think it will be nuclear.

Edited October 7, 2022 by Galyna

[spiritual memes]

6 minutes ago, Tyler Robinson said:

The worst part being that Russians are not getting rid of Putin. 

The fact that Russians are just sitting with this is very disturbing. 

 

its easier said than done.

 

[Roy]

Don't worry. It's all posturing and bluffing. Putin isn't stupid, he knows if Russia used a nuclear weapon the rest of the developed world would isolate them politically and economically to such an insane degree that his regime wouldn't be able to stop the torrent of citizens revolting, as well as betrayal from within his own camp.

He may have a tight grip on power, but even the most loyal egos will question following their leader off a cliff.

This whole war is him dick swinging one last time before he kicks the bucket, which is hopefully as soon as possible.

 

Edited October 7, 2022 by Roy

[Leo Gura]

If Putin uses a nuke then he will immediately trigger a conventional war with NATO, which would be a total disaster for him. NATO would wipe out all Russian forces with conventional bombs and drones.

Basically Putin's use of a nuke would be suicidal for him. Even Russians will turn against him.

Edited October 7, 2022 by Leo Gura

[Devin]

If Putin was rational he wouldn't have started this, you can't use logic to predict what he'll do, you can see what he's going to do

-Saudi billion dollar deal in Russia just revealed; Saudis cut oil production(to pinch the west)

-gas line finally completely shutoff, Putin has slowly been ratcheting the pressure with German gas this whole time

-putin starts to draft Russian s

-Putin is going to wait until it gets cold and nuke the fuck out of them, freezing NATO won't do shit but "sanctions"

[Revolutionary Think]

3 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

But also, there's no point worrying over things you cannot control.

Easier said than done but, in the long run yes. 

[Revolutionary Think]

2 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

If Putin uses a nuke then he will immediately trigger a conventional war with NATO

How would that not lead to the end of the world. I'm thinking about Mutually Assured Destruction. It's pretty freaking scary. 

[Leo Gura]

2 hours ago, Devin said:

If Putin was rational he wouldn't have started this, you can't use logic to predict what he'll do, you can see what he's going to do

Stealing a few territories is rational if you believe your army is vastly superior.

Putin just overestimated his army.

Quote

-Putin is going to wait until it gets cold and nuke the fuck out of them, freezing NATO won't do shit but "sanctions"

Stop saying nonsense.

53 minutes ago, Revolutionary Think said:

How would that not lead to the end of the world. I'm thinking about Mutually Assured Destruction. It's pretty freaking scary. 

Conventional bombing is not the end of the world.

A tactical nuke is not that dangerous by itself. The danger is in escalating to full nukes, which I doubt Putin is crazy enough to try.

Edited October 7, 2022 by Leo Gura

[Fleetinglife]

The problem is that these Soviet eras or more modernized "tactical nukes" today are significantly stronger in their payloads and knT explosive power in today's nuclear theory world even than the set of two actual atomic bombs were, that were dropped on Japan and Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki at the end of World War Two. 

I also must say and note that it would be some kind of dark underlying historical irony at play or twist or a universal dark humor twisted and perverted joke, coincidence, or parallel at work here if the Ukrainian army and it's service members that adopted the meme based on pure breed Japanese Shiba dog pups as their semi-official online brand for the NAFO online group and movement and for their official online alter-ego avatars and personas on some social media platforms then proceeded to get nuked in full-swing like Japan at the end of World War Two while posting with Japanese Shiba dog avatars online ?

But some still say that the Ukrainian army can still advance and make offensives even if it gets tactically nuked in some areas referring to the Clausewitz doctrines defending army four-point advantages and momentum gain:

"The Prussian military general, strategist, and theorist Carl von Clausewitz defined the war with physics rules such as momentum, mass, acceleration, etc. with his book ‘On War’.

Clausewitz recognized that defensive forces have always had important advantages over offensive forces: terrain, surprise, support of the people, and moral strength and that only absolute superiority in numbers can provide offensive forces with a guaranteed and assured advantage in this equation."

and all that being said though a non-profit international NGO leading a campaign for the abolition of nuclear weapons has estimated and said that throwing a nuke of any type in any part of today's European continent, especially nuclear reactor-filled Ukraine, would have potentially have even more hidden backfire effects and potential into spiraling down into even more unpredictable wider collateral, external fallouts and more destructive and escalatory consequences in some simulations than the one's thrown at Japan, that is an island and that was a relatively isolated geographically position wise more from other parts of the world at that time as a more or less insulated island:

"The International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN) says that Europe in 2022 is a much more dangerous place to use nuclear weapons than Japan in 1945, which had a smaller population and was relatively isolated:

"In Europe today, a single nuclear detonation would likely kill hundreds of thousands of civilians and injure many more; radioactive fallout could contaminate large areas in multiple countries", ICAN said on its website.

"Emergency services would not be able to respond effectively and widespread panic would cause mass movements of people and severe economic disruption. Multiple detonations, of course, would be much worse."

Tactical warheads are intended for use on a limited battlefield, for example to destroy a column of tanks or a group of aircraft carriers if used at sea. These warheads, with an explosive power of 10 to 100 kilotons of conventional dynamite, are also called "low yield" bombs.

Calling tactical weapons "low power bombs" is somewhat of a misnomer because explosive powers of 10 to 100 kilotons are still sufficient to cause mass destruction, as the world discovered in 1945 when the US dropped atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan. Those bombs had 15 or 21 kilotons of dynamite, so they were within range of Russian tactical nuclear weapons."

 

 

Edited October 7, 2022 by Fleetinglife

[Devin]

4 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

Stealing a few territories is rational if you believe your army is vastly superior.

Putin just overestimated his army.

Stop saying nonsense.

Conventional bombing is not the end of the world.

A tactical nuke is not that dangerous by itself. The danger is in escalating to full nukes, which I doubt Putin is crazy enough to try.

He's been getting his ass kicked and he just conscripted more to go into slaughter, he cannot win conventionally and that's more than apparent, yet he's still sacrificing his people. That's definitely not rational.

Edited October 7, 2022 by Devin

[Galyna]

6 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

Stealing a few territories is rational if you believe your army is vastly superior.

Putin just overestimated his army.

Stop saying nonsense.

Conventional bombing is not the end of the world.

A tactical nuke is not that dangerous by itself. The danger is in escalating to full nukes, which I doubt Putin is crazy enough to try.

Leo, you need to watch his speech in Russian language, I assume you understand Russian.

He mentioned it so many times that if needed he would use tactical nuclear weapon. Tactical. 

And I doubt that Europe and USA will respond if he would use it somewhere in Donetsk with the 15 km radius.

In one of his speeches, he mentioned USA using it against Japan (Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945), meaning if they could, why can't we....

Guys, please do not apply logic when talking about Putin. He is having a mental disorder. There is a very high chance that he would use tactic nuclear weapon. But I still hope that these threats are just threats, and nothing like this will ever happen. 

Edited October 7, 2022 by Galyna

[Revolutionary Think]

Best analysis I've seen so far. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o5DBJAbmDTM  

Edited October 7, 2022 by Revolutionary Think
embed

[trenton]

@Revolutionary Think I was literally about to send that video.

Basically, NATO is so vastly superior to the Russian army that it would be suicidal to start a nuclear war. The threat of nuclear war is a common talking point just to provoke the kind of panic we are seeing right now. It's never a good idea to actually do it. If people think you might, then that helps to manipulate them and provoke concessions.

North Korea did this several times already to force other countries to send aid. If Americans are scared because they think Kim Jong Un is crazy, then they want to get out of the situation immediately. In reality, Kim Jong Un is smarter and he knows how to manipulate other countries masterfully. North Korea must do this because they are constantly on the brink of total collapse, famine, and mass death.

In either case the main goal is to make people scared of nuclear war without actually doing it.

[Revolutionary Think]

1 minute ago, trenton said:

it would be suicidal to start a nuclear war

Exactly. Putin seems like he's playing 4d chess he doesn't really come across as a Palestinian suicide bomber or an American school shooter (who both basically take their own lives in the process). The thing that freaks me out is his ego being as his country and having an attitude of if I go then the world goes. That freaks me the fuck out if I'm being honest. I think the best thing that can happen is him to bow out in a way where he can save face. I just don't want his back to be so against the wall that he does the unthinkable. Then again I'm pretty sure there are procedures for such things and he doesn't have the ultimate say in doing something so destructive. Thanks for the response. 

[Guru Peter Jordanson]

I hope they will nuke Finland into oblivion. Then the space cops will come and rescue the rest of us.