The US economy finally recovered all of the jobs lost from the pandemic and more

[Hardkill]

According to todays jobs report for the US economy, last month employers throughout the entire country added 528,000 jobs across nearly all industries. This not only turned out to be more than double what economic forecasters had projected, but it also more than twice the average what the US economy adds each month when the economy is growing or recovery. Plus, it generally gets harder and harder to add more jobs to the economy the lower the unemployment rate gets and the unemployment rate has already been about as low as it can ever get since about the beginning of 2022. Furthermore, the US has now finally restored all nationwide employment to its prepandemic level, despite widespread expectations of a slowdown as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to fight inflation. Lastly, the US economy in total has now added some tens of thousands of new jobs in addition to having recovered all of 22 million jobs since April 2020 that were lost from the COVID-19 pandemic in Spring 2020. While labor force participation rate is still not quite as high as it should be and overall level of productivity throughout the country is a lot lower than it should be, the employment-to-population ratio is now at a good level again.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/08/05/business/jobs-report-july-economy

Inflation and gas prices are also coming significantly down:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/05/opinion/inflation-declining-gas-prices.html 

[hoodrow trillson]

Yeah saw that today.  They’re saying that recession fears are already simmering down amongst sane people (ie:  not watching Fox News).  The stats are there and it seems that Dark Brandon is working diligently at parring all the garbage being thrown at him.

[Yarco]

I don't buy it... give it a month or two until farmers start harvesting all of their wheat, corn, sugar beets, etc and see what happens to food prices. Watch as mortgage rates continue to rise and people can't afford their houses any more, and panic when they try to sell only to realize there's no more buyers. Then see if we're further ahead or behind than today.

Frankly I can't believe the US Govt or media any more because they BS all the numbers. How many of those 528,000 jobs are part-time jobs, people working retail or McDonalds?

Unemployment numbers are fudged because once you're unemployed for a certain amount of time, you just fall off the stats and don't count.

The powers that be have told you that things were fine or actually improving the entire way down. It's like the captain telling you everything's fine while the Titanic is sinking. 

You can look around and use your own logic to see what's really going on... what are the prices like at the pumps, is your grocery bill up or down, when having casual conversations with people does it seem like things are getting better or worse for them?

Or you can keep listening to the lies until things get so bad that you can't ignore it any more. My guess is that even when people were starving in Soviet countries, the propaganda was still telling everybody how great everything was.

Personally I'm gonna assume the next year will be bad and prepare accordingly, and if things actually do improve it'll just be a nice surprise and I'll be even further ahead, but I'll be ready either way.

[Hardkill]

22 hours ago, Yarco said:

I don't buy it... give it a month or two until farmers start harvesting all of their wheat, corn, sugar beets, etc and see what happens to food prices. Watch as mortgage rates continue to rise and people can't afford their houses any more, and panic when they try to sell only to realize there's no more buyers. Then see if we're further ahead or behind than today.

Frankly I can't believe the US Govt or media any more because they BS all the numbers. How many of those 528,000 jobs are part-time jobs, people working retail or McDonalds?

Unemployment numbers are fudged because once you're unemployed for a certain amount of time, you just fall off the stats and don't count.

The powers that be have told you that things were fine or actually improving the entire way down. It's like the captain telling you everything's fine while the Titanic is sinking. 

You can look around and use your own logic to see what's really going on... what are the prices like at the pumps, is your grocery bill up or down, when having casual conversations with people does it seem like things are getting better or worse for them?

Or you can keep listening to the lies until things get so bad that you can't ignore it any more. My guess is that even when people were starving in Soviet countries, the propaganda was still telling everybody how great everything was.

Personally I'm gonna assume the next year will be bad and prepare accordingly, and if things actually do improve it'll just be a nice surprise and I'll be even further ahead, but I'll be ready either way.

That's sounding like a conspiracy theory. 

America maybe the most corrupt 1st world country in the world, but it is still not a third or even a second world country that has no real democracy, no real freedom of the press, limited free speech allowed at the most, little to no checks and balances, underdeveloped governments, and primitive leaders. Don't confuse the US with a nation like Iraq, Russia, China, North Korea, Afghanistan, Mexico, or even India or Brazil.

Edited August 7, 2022 by Hardkill

[Gesundheit2]

Probably legit, but it will also probably cost the US many friendships.

[Razard86]

We are in a recession. https://www.npr.org/2022/07/28/1113649843/gdp-2q-economy-2022-recession-two-quarters

The definition of a recession is 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth. Recently President Joe Biden's administration has been trying to change the definition of what a recession is (with the help of the media) but I'm sorry you can't go around changing definitions when they don't suit you. America is in a recession anything else is lies. 

Benefits of a recession.

1. Its the best time to start a business.

2. If you stay with your employer throughout the recession you will probably get promoted for loyalty throughout.

3. Best time to get into investments as new companies enter in and you could pick a winner.

Cons

1. Inflation

2. Crime can increase

3. Mental Health of loved ones will usually take a dive

 

Strap yourselves in, we are going to be in this for a minimum of 2 years but will probably take 4 years to fully leave it completely and get back to how things were before.

[Hardkill]

8 hours ago, Razard86 said:

We are in a recession. https://www.npr.org/2022/07/28/1113649843/gdp-2q-economy-2022-recession-two-quarters

The definition of a recession is 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth. Recently President Joe Biden's administration has been trying to change the definition of what a recession is (with the help of the media) but I'm sorry you can't go around changing definitions when they don't suit you. America is in a recession anything else is lies. 

Benefits of a recession.

1. Its the best time to start a business.

2. If you stay with your employer throughout the recession you will probably get promoted for loyalty throughout.

3. Best time to get into investments as new companies enter in and you could pick a winner.

Cons

1. Inflation

2. Crime can increase

3. Mental Health of loved ones will usually take a dive

 

Strap yourselves in, we are going to be in this for a minimum of 2 years but will probably take 4 years to fully leave it completely and get back to how things were before.

It's currently in a technical recession. Not an actual all around recession.

Here's what some of the top economists in the US and in the whole world have said about the current economic situation in America:

Paul Krugman, in one of recent op-eds said "There's a pretty good chance the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which produces the numbers of gross domestic product an other macroeconomic data, will declare on Thursday, preliminarily, that real GDP shrank in the second quarter of 2022. Since it has already announced that real GDP shrank in the first quarter, there will be a lot of breathless commentary to the effect that we're officially in a recession.....But we won't be. That's not how recessions are defined; more important, it's not how they should be defined. It's possible that the people who actually decide whether we're in a recession--more about them in a minute--will eventually declare that a recession began in the United States in the first half of this year, although that's unlikely given other economic data. But they won't base their decision solely on whether we've had two successive quarters of falling real GDP.....Since 1978 the NBER has had a standing group of experts called the Business Cycle Dating Committee, which decides--with a lag--when a recession began and ended based on multiple criteria, including employment, industrial production and so on. And the US government accepts those rulings. So the official definition of a recession is that it is a period that the committee has declared a recession; it's an expert judgment call, not a formula..."

 https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/26/opinion/recession-gdp-economy-nber.html

Larry Summers, who is usually a harsh critic on economic situations, said that despite US having had two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, he really doesn't think that we are in a recession (at least not yet). He said the "the negative GDP is misleading. People spent a lot of money, so inventories got drawn down. That's a sign of strength. Not a sign of weakness, whatever the GDP numbers show. I do think that over the medium term, the great likelihood is that we will have a recession because when we have an economy as overheated as we have that has been the almost universal historical experience. So, I think that the chance of achieving that soft landing with steady labor market strength, it could happen, but I don't think that it's the best bet, and I think increasingly that's the judgment that is being reflected in markets. But to clear, it's a forward looking judgment and the White House is right in saying that whatever the Thursday GDP number, it doesn't look like we're in a recession right now....It's not the formal definition, it's not what the National Bureau of Economic Research or the economics profession use. Frankly the people who are  saying that are politically oriented people who know better. I say that as someone who is no optimist about the US economy. I do think that we will get to recession, but the claim that we're in one if Thursday's number is negative is one that's made by people who are either ignorant of economics or I think more are more frequently looking to make political points."

 https://www.cnn.com/videos/business/2022/07/26/us-recession-economy-gdp-larry-summers-sot-dlt-vpx.cnn

Mohamed El-Erian, who is also another harsh critic on the state of the US economy said: 

"The risk of a recession 'is getting higher and higher,' says veteran economist Mohamed El-Erian. 'My definition of a recession is a holistic definition. It goes well beyond two quarters of negative GDP,' said the chief economic advisor of Allianz and former CEO of PIMCO."

"'My definition of a recession is a holistic definition. It goes well beyond two quarters of negative GDP,' said the chief economic advisor of Allianz and former CEO of PIMCO."

“'The labor market is too strong. Consumer spending is too strong. Business balance sheets are too strong. We simply are not in a recession. Is the risk of recession high? Yes, it is high and getting higher,'” El-Erian said on Yahoo Finance's "Influencers with Andy Serwer."

https://news.yahoo.com/2-reasons-the-risk-of-recession-is-getting-higher-and-higher-mohamed-el-erian-173114992.html