Nancy Pelosi to visit Taiwan despite PLA warning to strike down airplane.

[Bobby_2021]

Nancy Pelosi is reported to visit Taiwan in the next few hours. The exact time has not yet been publicised.

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/us-speaker-nancy-pelosi-to-visit-taiwan-in-major-affront-to-china-report-3214509

This has angered China, according to whom Taiwan is their own territory, to which Nancy Pelosi is "invading". That, apparently gives PLA the freedom to strike down the airplane or even start an invasion of Taiwan.

The tensions are sky high. PLA has posted   video in WeChat indicating that they are war ready any time. 

The next few hours are going to be extremely crucial. 

Is Nancy Pelosi visit that necessary given the possibility that it could incite a war?

Thoughts? 

 

[Fleetinglife]

Overblown alarmist hype to what is essentially  going to be an overperformative PR move and stunt to act as little chronological droplet in their move and attempt to legitimise their working on around the clock of forming a strong Taiwanese Independence movement with US backing, aid and support which China may attempt to crush or take control or hold over and management at some point seriously in the future like it did with the Tibetan and Xinjaing-Uyghur one in the past . 

Edited August 1, 2022 by Fleetinglife

[Arcangelo]

Nancy is very old

[Yarco]

Seems like unnecessarily kicking the hornets nest.

Not sure of the geopolitical implications to the US if Taiwan became part of China again, but it doesn't seem like it would affect the West much, if at all.

Things are already bad enough with Russia, why antagonize China and risk sanctions from them too.

Shooting down Pelosi's plane seems extreme and like an act of war. But if they want to intercept it with fighter jets and force them to turn away I'd understand.

Imagine the fuss Israel would kick up if any Western leader went to visit Palestine.

[Jodistrict]

Here is some background information.

https://mronline.org/2021/04/24/tanks-and-think-tanks-how-taiwanese-cash-is-funding-the-push-to-war-with-china/

[Fleetinglife]

4 hours ago, Yarco said:

 

Imagine the fuss Israel would kick up if any Western leader went to visit Palestine.

Biden did this in July this year, that's not the issue. The issue is if he said statements akin to we unequivocally support the right of people's, and henceforth Palestinians right to their self-determination on forming a sovereign self-governance and statehood on land internationally recognized in part to belong to Israels internationally recognized borders - which the current Palestinian idea of statehood currently encapsulates, that is subtly officially advocating with the intent of the visit and statements a independence statehood movement or an official declaration secession in Taiwans case, which he didn't do but simply blanketly stated and called upon both Israel and Palestinians to peace and respecting the human rights of each other while of course accentuating Palestinians and urged for the two sides to reach a compromise over their administrative governance borders and issues - that is he took a semi neutral diplomatic stance with the visit (since he both visited Israelis and Palestinians governing and administrative regions) even though obviously biased in the favor of Israel and Israelis since the US along with other Western nations doesn't recognize an existence internationally on a map of a Palestine or any Palestinian self-governing administrative regions but see them all as belonging to a state or country of Israel. 

Nancy's visit would be even more biased in favor of a Taiwanese Independence movement and in general US assets and military allies in East Asia and the Asia Pacific since she didn't plan on her trip to either visit Mainland China or some other large country but instead all these island micronations or parts of divided nations including Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan etc. and would be unofficially signaling and promoting of a Taiwanese independence movement with the move by signaling it out specifically among all other nations in the region even though the US government still doesn't acknowledge it as such in it's official documents. 

And what's even worse optics wise, from the Chinese point of view especially, is that you have to do this with US nuclear powered aircraft carrier ships cruising in the Taiwanese strait separating Mainland China from the Taiwan island with just a several hundred kilometers distance as some sort of 'mediators or peacekeepers in international waters' while their state official's and representatives promote independence of islands several hundred kilometers away from the Chinese Mainland, they almost seem in their eyes like the British centuries ago arriving on their ships forcing the Chinese to their British naval supremacy in waters in close proximity to them to accept in agreements the ceding and leasing of their vital sea trading ports and hubs of Hong Kong and Macau for a hundred years while they subsequently colonize them which the Chinese would only later be allowed to reclaim and along with the population there - it looks optic wise in their eyes like a bitter historical taste and humiliation of that repeating itself again with US high-valued military assets freely cruising and deliberately applying pressure in waters kilometres away from China just in order to facilitate a visit by US official to give her overperformative dramatic speech simply to subtly greenlight and give tacit support in the unforseen, close future of an idea of Taiwan perhaps becoming a sovereign nation and independent country and the people there constructing a civic identity of no longer being affiliated culturally with being Mainland Chinese in any way but by being a Taiwanese national identity - that's how I see the whole spiel and game being around this from a long-term political perspective and to try to atleast for the US to slowly but gradually ween off domestically while not having a severe international crisis in the meanwhile disrupting that supply chain and tanking and crashing the economy seveerely domestically due to sudden shortages and supply disruptions from the Taiwanese semi-conductor and chip production monopoly on the world market, opting to rely more on South Korea which also has a quite a share in it in it's global production output instead, while not allowing China to take a hold of it at the same time as well to dictate its prices by having it as another monopoly on their side. 

It seems like a strange but dangerous attempt of balancing act while walking on wires that you set yourself upon intentionally or unintentionally on extremely unfavourable, unstable, reckless and dangerous high altitude positions due to some other short-sighted political and economic motives. 

Edited August 1, 2022 by Fleetinglife

[Stovo]

I don't think the Chinese would do anything. They understand the US & allies have a superior navy in the Pacific. 

This looks more like tough saber rattling to draw nationalist public support. The risk is if the CCP are forced to take military action to avoid appearing weak to their own people. 

[Fleetinglife]

27 minutes ago, Stovo said:

I don't think the Chinese would do anything. They understand the US & allies have a superior navy in the Pacific. 

This looks more like tough saber rattling to draw nationalist public support. The risk is if the CCP are forced to take military action to avoid appearing weak to their own people. 

Yes of course that is the domestic perception and propaganda legitimacy in order to maintain your regime part of the equation, but also there is the obvious second collective psychological part of it in the fact that there is a visible perception of humiliation and lack of respect that a visit by a foreign official on a land very similar culturally to yours and just a few hundred kilometers away from you needs to be conducted by threats of military force and aircraft carriers in waters close to you - it is like a massive imperialist display of military might by a foreign power or nation different from yours in lands near you just in order for so for their officials can make random visit to one island population and region there - it still looks bad optics wise no matter how you look at it or were you are from or culturally belong as a human being on this planet - and I bet it feels humiliating and depressing for the people there as if they are treated as some second-class of citizens in the global population and potentially violent horde and mass that needs to be kept in check and under surveillance through exclusively foreign international military powers while propping up military bars that you set all around them - like they are in some sort of international global equivalent of a detention or prison for a people or nation. 

Anyways that's my take on the harms to the collective psychological aspect dimension of this, all people everywhere on this Planet wanted to be treated as equals and inherently equal human beings no matter where they are from, their background or feel that they belong to and with reference and having in mind of their natural human dignity and respect of belonging to and sharing in of a collective of a people and community, and this all the more especially true for people's or nations that have the lingering trauma of losing those rights once in the past by being colonized, separated and marginalised not so long ago - that has to be always kept in mind imo when engaging in foreign to foreign interactions  between different types of human beings on Planet Earth currently existing, inhabitating it and living together on it. 

Edited August 1, 2022 by Fleetinglife

[Ramu]

@Bobby_2021 Dude, China always does the Sabre rattling thing just to intimidate us.  It's all bark and zero bite.  They would be stupid to pull a fast one on US Military forces.  They can't afford to have their military annihilated by NATO.

[Bobby_2021]

9 hours ago, Yarco said:

Shooting down Pelosi's plane seems extreme and like an act of war. But if they want to intercept it with fighter jets and force them to turn away I'd understand.

According to reports, they will attempt to intercept it with fighter jets initially. If they fail, they will resort to shooting it down. 

3 hours ago, Ramu said:

@Bobby_2021 Dude, China always does the Sabre rattling thing just to intimidate us.  It's all bark and zero bite.  They would be stupid to pull a fast one on US Military forces.  They can't afford to have their military annihilated by NATO.

China is well aware of the logistical nightmare involved in waging an invasion on Taiwan. But you underestimate how ideologically invested, the chinese are in making Taiwan a part of themselves. If there is an invasion, China will give in everything they have and more. Winning or losing comes second. 

 

4 hours ago, Stovo said:

I don't think the Chinese would do anything. They understand the US & allies have a superior navy in the Pacific. 

Yes. The chinese do understand how weak they are compared to NATO and US dominance. A small point of failure can humiliate China. But they won't hesitate to go to war, because they see Taiwan as a part of themselves. It is an emotional and ideological battle.

Not logical one. 

9 hours ago, Yarco said:

Seems like unnecessarily kicking the hornets nest.

Not sure of the geopolitical implications to the US if Taiwan became part of China again, but it doesn't seem like it would affect the West much, if at all.

The major problem is going to be the semi conductor manufacturing industry which Taiwan dominates. 

That's the last thing you would want under the control of an authoritarian communist government. The stakes are high for the entire world, not just the US. We have allowed ourselves to be too dependent on Taiwan for high end semi conductor chips. 

[Bobby_2021]

Pelosi lands in Taiwan.

Waiting to see how China responds.

Brink of another war? 

[Ramu]

@Bobby_2021 well then they'll definitely lose... unfortunately for them.

[Scholar]

On 1.8.2022 at 8:17 PM, Yarco said:

Seems like unnecessarily kicking the hornets nest.

Not sure of the geopolitical implications to the US if Taiwan became part of China again, but it doesn't seem like it would affect the West much, if at all.

I don't understand why you say you are not sure of the geopolitical implications, and then in the same sentence say "seems like it wouldn't affect the West much". To know whether or not it would affect the West much requires understanding the geopolitical implications.

You really think the US is "kicking the hornets nest" for fun? Because of solidarity for Taiwan? That's naive, this is a clearly calculated move solely for the benefit of the US.

 

 

 

[Bobby_2021]

United States always profits from wars. They don't really mind if tension escalates and turns into a war. The pressure and blame is all on China, as it should.

Plus this is a visit driven by her own personal interests.

 

[Danioover9000]

Ridiculous stupid political drama, that's what. It's both irresponsible for Pelosi to antagonize China, and China to threaten to shot the plane down. Both sides and others will not have a complete benefit of this situation, it'll just be another bitter sweet victory, considering With what's going on in Europe between Russia and Ukraine and the shortages of grain and other supplies.

[puporing]

Ego games.. 

[Danioover9000]

@puporing

8 hours ago, puporing said:

Ego games.. 

   Absolutely! So selfish too, when Biden clearly, officially, told her not to go to Taiwan. Really ridiculous, considering that Chinese military are running exercises around Taiwan, practicing invasion maneuvering.

[Fleetinglife]

fmr. adviser to the Defense Secretary under the Trump administration Col. Douglas McGregor (presumably still a Trump political campaign advocate and associate) gives a surprisingly strong case from a military history and strategy POV of Mainland China's position and stakes in this crisis that I have rarely heard and/or seen anywhere at this point and that requires actually an understanding of past wars and politics in the Asia-Pacific region to fully grasp and appreciate what's at stake from their Mainland POV historically in this situation, begging the question can the sole blame be put on it for heightening up the tensions with it's conducting of military exercises around the island together with US ships in close pursuit. 

It also begs the question why was it allowed for large part of a production of an essential commodity (almost more than thirty percent) for the digital and informational age allowed to be outsourced to a single 70 mil pop island to act almost as large monopoly on it's global supply chain distribution of those semi-conductor chips the world market with no objections raised that was already at that point in a heavy historical and political dispute and argumentation with Mainland China over it's political status, identity and relationship with the Mainland Chinese. 

Of course I don't agree with all points and share all his perspectives and views on the issue (he appeared also to a Fox viewership after all to propagandistically advocate for a seemingly currently democratically "disgraced" political faction within one of the two-parties to re-take control and power over the next central political administration in the US again out of his own affiliations and baked interests with it most probably one can speculate) that this seeming lone wolf voice ex-Pentagon US military commander is advocating and saying, but it is interesting to note how he takes the Chinese historical-military perspective and experience over this island heavily into account when discussing about the current problems of feelings of mutual distrust, mistrust and skepticisms floating around above it and calls into question unquestioned almost dogmatically held narratives of some people in Western countries of unstoppable US military capabilities and it's non-existent full NATO allies (there is no NATO currently in the Asia-Pacific) there, but only possibly the the NATO substitute quickly patched up military deals and alliances of AUKUS or the Quad intervening at some point, of being able to meaningfully intervene against China's PLA posturing and imposition over the Taiwan Island and it's surrounding international waters there without blowing into a major war and confortation with the whole of Mainland China that might escalate and find its self and it's allied military forces from other alliance countries sustaining heavy naval military losses in some narrow choke points near or in the Taiwan Strait where the PRC has a big advantage as quote-on-quote land fortress defense he explains, that they developed as response to quote-on-quote previous historical experiences with meddling foreign, colonial or imperial powers over their vulnerablity of major invasions into Mainland China being launched and coordinated precisely from an occupied Taiwan island. So he implicitly advises people watching this or this crisis unfold or reignite, to take heed of this past traumatic experience for the Chinese from their survival POV when approaching this issue from their own perspective of who's at the most fault and most to blame over this issue, when approaching this issue of global and international peace and stability that was put at stake to be around this island. 

Essentially he begs the question why should China trust the West, Western powers and people, now as sufficiently evolved unbiased and objective arbiters over this issue who are looking out for their best interests at heart for promoting and maintaining mutual peace, co-existence, co-operation, tolerance, mutual understanding and equality and solidarity with the Mainland Chinese and Taiwanese Chinese as separate countries, given the abuses China has suffered in the past by the hands of some powerful foreign imperial power due to fact it had control over, leverage over it to use against China as whole or disproportionate influence over that island in it's close territorial waters proximity much more so than the Chinese had with their also Chinese netizens across the narrow strait, and why is their an implicit Western superiority assumption that China at one point when it is developed and evolved enough (according to it's own plans for peaceful re-unification) won't be able to govern it better in order to stabilize it and its relationship with the rest of the region and itself, than Taiwan drifting further West as independent island military protectorate and at some point acting maybe as an immobile aircraft carrier that the US and some of it's regional allied powers can again use militarily as another staging ground, as well adding Japan to that, for operations against it to curb China's economic and military rise and growth in the future in order not to challenge their own global hegemony, management or control too much. 

What sufficent evidence now does China have that former same imperial powers previously engaged in it's colonization during it's vulnerable crisis period and their later other admitted allies who did the same and even worse inhumanities to  it and some part of it's people at some point, have now sufficently evolved and learned their historical lessons for it to let them give freely control over Taiwan via as guarantor's of it's independence movement similar to Kosovo, and that they won't attempt to use it against China at some point in the future over their disagreements and distrust over self-proclaimed China's political and economic path to it's growth and development that may put them to be the first non-European power in history to be in the long term as equal to an old superpower and imperial one in it's economic and political influence across the world. How can China trust the major  Western powers namely the US and some other regional ones that they will become considerate, understanding and fair to their share of global influence and power in the future - and not rely on people today like fmr. Trump Sec. Of State Mike Pompeo who have the most prominent exclusionary ideological, warmongering, xenophobic, close-minded and dismissive stance toward China, it's current government composition, it's self-derived economic system, it's culture and it's people to be major dictators and influencers of the relationship of the rest of the world towards it and the major Western powers towards it - i. e not one that is based on actual mutual self-understanding, equality, tolerance, freedom in relationships and solidarity with the whole of China it's people, but the feelings of the exact opposite of contempt, distrust and fear. 

This of course the military, historical, ideological, economic and geo-political part of the perspective surrounding around it, the spiral stages one and collective ego psychological ones in terms of differences, divergences, discrepancies, incongruities and inconveniences for mutual in sync agreed upon understanding, interpretation and approaches of every move being made and overall different cultural programmings also play a part, however I do not believe that excuses a mal-developed Orange to Green to want a start a war of yet developing Blue into Orange that had a significant handicap and head start over it even as recent as the last 40 years - it's sounds as another excuse born out of intolerance, unwillingness to understand and bridge the existing and obvious divides and barriers set there by the universe for a reason to increase human-to-human understanding and ultimately to let people learn and find out more about themselves and mutually self-reinforcing ignorant fear of not somehow having complete control over the world and the direction of development of it's affairs no longer solely resting in your hands and your rationally calculating mind for it's own sole security, survival, comfort, status-quo stability and benefit. 

BTW without further expressing my opinions and thoughts around the issue adue here is the video of the colonel explaining the obvious military problems around this situation (though beware of the Fox News viewer propaganda surrounding glow and aura of insincerity when opting to watch this short clip, and of course dismiss and take no heed or attention to the demonising, smearing, distorting and misleading nature of phrasing of the title of this video as well?):

 

Edited August 5, 2022 by Fleetinglife

[Scholar]

 It's cringe to me that every issue has to be politicized, ironically the Right would be saying it was a show of strength if Trump had visited during his presidency.

 

Taiwan is an independent nation, everyone can visit it any time. The only reason China is reacting this way is because they know it will make their devilish plans more difficult. It's actually kind of funny because people who actually thought China would be provoked into war because of this are clearly showing that they have no understanding of China whatsoever.

China has been doing this kind of overreaction and flailing around for decades now, it was obvious that they wouldn't be doing anything and what Pelosi did worked the way anyone would have predicted who knows CCP politics.

 

Aside from that China's military is so incompetent and unprepared, even if it tried an invasion it would most likely fail worse than Russia has, let alone if it wanted to start a war with the western nations. I think some of you people don't understand how deeply corrupted the chinese system is.

 

But oh well what can you expect on this forum in regards to political analysis, it's like you guys eat up whatever the current media talking points are whether it be the coming from the left or the right.

[Yarco]

23 minutes ago, Scholar said:

Aside from that China's military is so incompetent and unprepared, even if it tried an invasion it would most likely fail worse than Russia has, let alone if it wanted to start a war with the western nations.

If China really wanted to go to war with America (or put tons of pressure on Taiwan through them) they don't need tanks and bombs.

Just make a few strategic sanctions where they refuse to sell stuff to the US and watch the US crumble to their demands.

Imagine if China decided to stop selling us just diabetes, blood pressure, and anti-anxiety medications alone, how much chaos it would cause. I don't think people realize how reliant on them we are.

In a real war with China, Walmarts would be 90% empty... clothes, food, medication, electronics... and it would take us months to spin up domestic manufacturing or source materials from other countries to fill in the gaps.

The next big war will be an economic war of attrition and China will be in a lot better position than we are. Pretty much the only thing they import from us are US dollars.