Why the US will Fall

[Scholar]

This is not a fearmongering thread, rather I want to discuss the underlying dynamics for how power structure eventually crumble and give way for others to take over.

 

In my opinion there is a fundamental lack of understanding in regard to how systems evolve throughout time. There is a reason why empires cannot forever uphold their own structures.

Every structure on earth is evolving, and in that competing for ressources. Structures that do not evolve are stable, but run the risk of eventually getting outcompeted, or failing due to changes in the environment. So you might think constant change and adaptation is the obvious solution here, but evolution and change inherently is a risky undertaking. The wisdom of evolution is not that structures magically evolve towards the most optimal path, it's that, structures evolve by trying out new things. Most of this experimentation is bound to fail, simply because most paths will lead to dead ends.

This is the reason why there was never a singular structure that simply dominated the entire world for the entire duration of history. Because to dominate you have to be the pioneer who walks into the unknown. An empire which does not evolve will we outcompeted by structures that do evolve, but to evolve means to run the risk of falling into a dead end. The US was the dominating power because it did a lot of pioneering work, and this pioneering attitude which it has today will lead to a dead end. It is inevitable, because the way political and social structures evolve is still too unconscious and unsophisticated to actually predict the effects of it's own changes.

 

The systemic issues you see in the US is due to the pioneering work it has done, but that same pioneering work is causing problems this system does not know how to solve. And the failure of this system will be what will inform other systems of one of the dead-ends. That way, other systems will be able to continue exploring and evolving, most of them of course failing, some succeeding and then falling as they run into the same issue.

 

Notice the genius of this system, it divine intelligence at work, and it ensures progress, not for individual systems, but for the given reality as a whole. Infact, even if the entirety of earth fails, this system will ensure that one out of the many planets in this universe that does have complex life will eventually find the corrrect pathway.

 

 

The reason why I am saying this is to set correct expectations, not to fearmonger. The US will very likely lose it's place as an hegemony, simply because it's culture ran into a dead-end, which will require a fundamental reconfiguration. Looking at this through a lense of spiral dynamics, and thinking that just because something seems green, it must be the way humanity will progress, is naive. Not every green structure will be healthy, or future proof. Again, remember, a healthy progression transcends and includes, which is not the case in what we are observing in the US specifically. As this system fails, and another one succeeds, many structures will naturally follow that example, as it will be the path of least resistance. Being a pioneer has advantages and disadvantages. That very attitude both leads to your success, and your eventual failure.

Because what matters is not your individual success, but the success of the system as a whole unity.

[jimwell]

Here's a very good video which demonstrates how the US has already started to collapse and will be replaced by China as the world's Super Power in a few decades. 

I wonder whether English will also be replaced by Mandarin Chinese as the global language. 

[Roy]

16 minutes ago, jimwell said:

I wonder whether English will also be replaced by Mandarin Chinese as the global language. 

China's influence will grow for sure but there isn't much of a chance for this at all. I'm sure some people will adopt it for economic reasons but China isn't going to have the kind of impact Great Britain or the US had on the rest of the world in terms of domination.

China is far too isolationist and xenophobic to spread around that kind of cultural/soft power.

I was generally bullish on China's future of becoming a superpower but the more I learn the less bullish I am. They have some REAL problems to deal with soon. Their demographics are going to cause apocalyptic strain and they don't take in nearly enough immigrants to compensate.

[Yog]

An interesting video on "shift of power".

Given, today's situation they have with the war. Makes me wonder how much of these kinds of things they have in mind/plan.
 

 

[jimwell]

5 minutes ago, Roy said:

China's influence will grow for sure but there isn't much of a chance for this at all. I'm sure some people will adopt it for economic reasons but China isn't going to have the kind of impact Great Britain or the US had on the rest of the world in terms of domination.

China is far too isolationist and xenophobic to spread around that kind of cultural/soft power.

I was generally bullish on China's future of becoming a superpower but the more I learn the less bullish I am. They have some REAL problems to deal with soon. Their demographics are going to cause apocalyptic strain and they don't take in nearly enough immigrants to compensate.

I recommend you finish watching the video first. I think China will be much more dominant than you think. 

But I'm having a difficult time seeing how Mandarin Chinese will replace English. English is spoken around the world and has the most language learners. And computers, Programming languages, AI, and other IT devices are English based. 

The future's very interesting. When I say future, I mean the next 2 decades. 

[Hardkill]

We definitely shouldn't underestimate China's growing power at all. The country will inevitably become the largest economy in the world and the second most powerful nation in the world in about a decade from now. Also, there are some aspects of their type of economy that I believe are better than America's including the greater level of centralized planning by those who have been appointed to administer their entire country's economy solely based on their elite level of expertise in economics and governing. I also appreciate their government's ability to establish greater unity and civic duty amongst all of their citizens in their country than the US governments' ability to do so with its citizens.

However, most of their citizens are still not nearly as developed as most Americans in many ways. Most of the citizens of China still apparently hold much more primitive cultural values than Americans do. They don't have freedom of expression and freedom of press anywhere to the level that most Americans do. In relation to that, despite the country being socialist, which was supposed to mean total equality for everybody, the people of China don't really believe in the values of democracy and true egalitarianism like those in 1st world countries do. Not to mention, there's much greater amount of corruption in China than there is in the US. Plus, their level of education per capita, GDP per capita, military power, medical and scientific breakthroughs and achievements, infrastructure, environmental regulation are all at much lesser degree in China than in the US. 

It's going to take several decades for China to become as developed overall as the US is.

Edited July 2, 2022 by Hardkill

[actuallyenlightened]

I must disagree. The US will likely remain the global power for the next few centuries because:

• Healthy demographics
• Competitive 1: The best people from all around the world come to the US.
• Competitive 2: There's a strong culture of making money and being the best. This isn't great from the consciousness standpoint but a marvel in terms of geopolitics
• Strong national identity in most states. People these days are anti-nationalistic but that's very important for a multi-ethnic country to remain stable. 
• Military: Not only does it spent the most but has adopted effective doctrines.

Things are much more bleak for other contenders: 

China:

• The whole social contract is built upon the promise that the communist party will provide economic growth in exchange for freedom
  • Rapid economic growth (double digit %/year) only works in low income countries, and China is middle income now.
• Demographics. An aging population is tough enough for Japan; for China with a GDP per capita of $10k USD this will be a catastrophe
• The CCP is stifling private companies. It's a well known fact that state-owned enterprises don't work nearly as well due mainly to corruption and inefficiency.
• The trust in the government is highly dependent on whether they can take Taiwan, an island fortress. Even if they do win, they'll lose at least a million troops and that's destabilizing. 
• Poor military track record: In the most recent war they invaded Vietnam with a big numeric advantage and failed due to lack of coordination, poor training etc. 
• Other stuff: government doesn't effectively collect taxes. Selling rights to land isn't working anymore since Evergrande
• China can and will likely become the world power, but not in this century

Russia:

• Rapidly shrinking population. Furthermore, the population of the Slavs, the ruling elite, is shrinking while that of ethnic Muslims is increasing. This is bad news for them because the latter were previously conquered by Russians.
• Poor resource based economy and corrupt government
• It at least has a strong military.? Nope, can't even conquer Ukraine, should've been done within a month but they're still fighting over Donbas.

Western Europe:

• Basically got traumatized by the world wars and lost their competitive edge.
• Not interested in becoming hegemons 

India:

• Currently corrupt and unable to get much done.
• Developing a solid democratic tradition that should propel it onto the global stage, albeit much later - after sorting out their internal issues.

[Breakingthewall]

China is a great economic power. but its cultural thrust is zero. If China wakes up as a civilization, as a culture, and has something to contribute to humanity, welcome. for now it doesn't seem like it

[jimwell]

On 7/3/2022 at 5:58 AM, Hardkill said:

Plus, their level of education per capita, GDP per capita, military power, medical and scientific breakthroughs and achievements, infrastructure, environmental regulation are all at much lesser degree in China than in the US. 

It's going to take several decades for China to become as developed overall as the US is.

If you watched the video I shared until the end, it should have been clear that China is catching up fast.