Will automation cause a dramatic increase in education level of more people?

[Hardkill]

Yesterday, I was talking with a friend of mine about what gonna happen when automation increasingly becomes the norm all around the world, particularly in 1st world countries. He believes that it will make poor even poorer as the rich get richer. 

My response to that was that it will momentarily make more poor people, but that more automation means more people are going to have no choice but to become more educated in order to learn how to operate new kinds of more advanced machinery, especially the kind that involved more automation.

His response was that it was a liberal theory, I am living in a bubble, because the suffering is already happening and that many middle and working class people are not gonna get better educated when they end up living in a tent and worry about where next meal comes from.

I said to him that he thinks that I am sounding idealistic, but that the thing conservatives don't accept is that given the trend history, things can never stay the same forever.

He agreed with that, but said that automation is still gonna be a game changer labor force wise, he doesn't see rich lobbyists going "ok people need a living wage" hahhahaha, and that they already fight on hill they pick to die on to not raise minimum wage. He then went on saying that all of the current middle class even will be eating rats, while a taco bell meal will be 65 dollars. He also said that the rich and corporations aren't going to lift up and educate the poor.

What are your thoughts on this?

Edited June 21, 2022 by Hardkill

[Yarco]

The purpose of automation is to replace people. To have a machine that doesn't need to eat, sleep, or take breaks. Just routine maintenance.

Between 1990 and 2007, every robot deployed replaced 3.3 workers. I would guess that over time, AI and robots will only become more efficient and replace more people.

If every 1 robot puts 3+ people out of work, then it's not possible to train everyone to repair the robots and advanced machinery. It only takes a team of maybe a dozen instrumentation & electrical technicians to keep an entire factory running, where hundreds of people previously worked.

It's not just machinery, everything is getting automated. Even the arts. Soon 99% of books will be written by AI and you won't know the difference. People will only buy human-written books as an artisanal thing, like the equivalent of buying hand-made shoes today.

There is nowhere to run to or an area of work to re-train in. Eventually AI will replace everything. Your best hope is probably to save up enough money to get a machine or AI to work for you instead of someone else.

That's just from a perspective that assumes people will actually want to work. In various countries, we saw a real-world example of what happened when citizens were given temporary UBI at the start of the pandemic. Most people were lazy, stayed home and watched Netflix. They weren't learning new skills or bettering themselves or thinking about the future. In many cases, if the covid benefits were equal or better than what you got paid at your old job, many people simply didn't go back to work until the benefits ran out. 

I think the rich people are going to give a living wage, because they don't have another option if they want to keep society together. I think it might even be better than current welfare payments. Just enough to keep you home and comfortable and not causing trouble. Many people will turn into consumerist machines that basically just watch ads to survive. 

It'll still be possible to climb out of it and make a better life for yourself. But when you can do nothing and be lazy, only a small percentage of people will have the drive and initiative to actually do it.

53 minutes ago, Hardkill said:

a taco bell meal will be 65 dollars

I mean, if we extrapolate out historic inflation alone, this isn't that unrealistic. A cheeseburger at McDonalds costs $2 today, in the 50's they were 19 cents. That's a 950% change. By the year 2094 you should expect a McDonalds cheeseburger will cost $21.

If you take your date out for a couple Big Mac meals in the year 2100, after tax you'll be looking at like $320.

It'll apply to everything. A head of lettuce will probably cost you $20 too. A car will be $300,000, a house will be $6 million.

I don't think we'll be eating bugs in 5 or 10 years. But I have made my garden larger this year to grow more fresh food for myself, and I'll make it even bigger next year, and install a vegetable garden in the yard of any friend/family who wants one. (I think by next spring, things will be bad enough that people will be asking me.) It's good to have food sovereignty even if things don't get bad enough that you have to rely on it.

A general trend for the future... if you want something, you have to create it for yourself. Don't expect or rely on anyone to give it to you... not your employer, not your government. 100% responsibility. Your paycheque or government handouts can disappear in an instant.

[Bobby_2021]

Quite informative. UBI should make a difference.

People are not born tk to work. 

The only concern is thag it will result in a steep power divide between those who own the capital and those who don't.

I say the government had to assume some level of control over the machines and redistribute the profit generated to the masses so that they are complacent and controllable.

A huge power divide is just around the corner.