How can democrats regain their demographic advantage?

[Raze]

Democrats have three major demographic advantages when it comes to election.

1) women are more likely to vote democrat, and women are more likely to vote in general 

2) college educated people are more likely to vote democrat, and the rate of advanced education historically increases

3) minorities are more likely to vote democrat, and minority populations were increasing

Young people are also left leaning, however the youth vote is notoriously unreliable and it will take many cycles until the current youth are the majority of voters, and by then they may have become more conservative.

However recently democrats seem to be losing the advantages they have from these.

1) While college educated women have moved to the left, non college educated women, especially white women, seem to be trending right

see: 

https://imgur.com/a/IGsya86

2) while college educated people are more likely to vote democrat, college educated men are also trending right, as shown above. In addition, college enrollment is trending downward, especially for men. 

see: https://www.usnews.com/news/education-news/articles/2022-05-26/college-enrollment-declines-are-here-to-stay

3) minorities seem to be trending rightward as well, see:

https://imgur.com/a/P3kURGZ

https://nypost.com/2022/05/19/biden-job-disapproval-among-hispanics-hits-60-percent-poll/

————————————————

I suggest democrats should

-do student loan forgiveness and make colleges more affordable, increasing college graduations may increase democrat voters 

-start trying to create a positive outreach or messaging to males, especially single males. Democrats already try outreach to families and single women but haven’t really attempted much for males.

-recalibrate messaging towards minorities. Currently democrats may not be properly appealing to them, for example continuing to use the phrase Latinx despite the majority preferring Latino and Latina
 

Do you agree or disagree? What strategies do you think democrats should use to regain their demographic advantages? 

[Hardkill]

4 hours ago, Raze said:

Democrats have three major demographic advantages when it comes to election.

1) women are more likely to vote democrat, and women are more likely to vote in general 

2) college educated people are more likely to vote democrat, and the rate of advanced education historically increases

3) minorities are more likely to vote democrat, and minority populations were increasing

Young people are also left leaning, however the youth vote is notoriously unreliable and it will take many cycles until the current youth are the majority of voters, and by then they may have become more conservative.

However recently democrats seem to be losing the advantages they have from these.

1) While college educated women have moved to the left, non college educated women, especially white women, seem to be trending right

see: 

https://imgur.com/a/IGsya86

2) while college educated people are more likely to vote democrat, college educated men are also trending right, as shown above. In addition, college enrollment is trending downward, especially for men. 

see: https://www.usnews.com/news/education-news/articles/2022-05-26/college-enrollment-declines-are-here-to-stay

3) minorities seem to be trending rightward as well, see:

https://imgur.com/a/P3kURGZ

https://nypost.com/2022/05/19/biden-job-disapproval-among-hispanics-hits-60-percent-poll/

————————————————

I suggest democrats should

-do student loan forgiveness and make colleges more affordable, increasing college graduations may increase democrat voters 

-start trying to create a positive outreach or messaging to males, especially single males. Democrats already try outreach to families and single women but haven’t really attempted much for males.

-recalibrate messaging towards minorities. Currently democrats may not be properly appealing to them, for example continuing to use the phrase Latinx despite the majority preferring Latino and Latina
 

Do you agree or disagree? What strategies do you think democrats should use to regain their demographic advantages? 

I think your ideas would help.

I also think that the Democratic needs to reach to A LOT more rural voters throughout the whole than they have been in recent years. This is what James Carville said last year in an article on Vox:

"Here’s the deal: No matter how you look at the map, the only way Democrats can hold power is to build on their coalition, and that will have to include more rural white voters from across the country. Democrats are never going to win a majority of these voters. That’s the reality. But the difference between getting beat 80 to 20 and 72 to 28 is all the difference in the world.

So they just have to lose by less — that’s all."

Btw, I've recently studied up a lot on the voters demographics of each state and I see that the five key things that indeed do make a voting population more liberal and Democratic are:

1. Having a higher education per capita.

2. Larger share of people who are either less conservative in their religious beliefs or are not religious at all.

3. Decreasing rural populations while increasing urban and suburban populations.

4. Having more densely population cities, suburbs, and towns.

5. Increasing the diversity of the population.

This is how a state such as Virginia turned from becoming a mainly conservative state to now mainly a liberal state. The state started off in 1619, as arguably having the worst level of slavery. After America became a sovereign nation 1776, Virginia very much continued on as a slave state through the rest of the 1700s and during the early to mid-1800s. At the beginning of the Civil War, Virginia joined the Confederacy and actually its state capital Richmond ended up becoming the capitol of the whole Confederate States of America. In fact, General Robert E. Lee, who became the top commander of the entire Confederate States Army in the war was born, raised, and died in Virginia. Even after both the end of the war and the end slavery in all of America, most Virginians were still very racist and by around 1877 implemented the Jim Crow laws in their state. The racist southern Democrats in Virginia were always the dominant political party in their state at both the state and national level from the late 1800s all the way to the mid 1900s. Even during the civil rights movement era, no Congressmen from Virginia for either the Senate or the House voted for ANY of the Civil Rights or Voting Rights bills that ended segregation and gave full citizenship and voting rights for all colored people in all of the South. During the late 60s, Democrats lost the South, including Virginia, to the Republican Party. From the 70s to the 90s it was mostly a red state. Then in the 2000s decade it transitioned to becoming a purple state. Finally, by the 2010s, Virginia turned into a mostly Blue state. The state is currently mostly Blue and it looks like it's only going to more Blue as time goes. The reasons why the state made such a change over the many years include having a much higher education per capita than before (Virginia is now arguably the seventh-most educated U.S. state), rural populations shrinking at a major rate while urban and suburban populations have been growing at a very significant rate, more and more densely populated areas in the state, greater amount of overall diversity throughout the entire state, and even though Virginians on average are more religious than most other Americans they have become less conservative in their religious beliefs overtime.

This is also pretty much what's been happening with Georgia. It's a Deep South state that of course is a former member of the Confederacy and had slavery for over a century. Also, like every other Southern state, it too established and enforced Jim Crow laws from the late 1800s to 1965. No Congressmen from Georgia for either the Senate or the House voted for ANY of the Civil Rights or Voting Rights bills during the civil right era, except for a very few amount of House of Representatives from the state. Became primarily a red state from the late 60s to the 2010s. Yet, ever since Biden/Harris won Georgia for the 2020 presidential election, and the  the centre-left Democrats, Ossoff and Warnock won both of those US senate seats in that runoff, the state has now become a purple state that is likely to turn increasingly Blue overtime. This happened because the state, especially in Atlanta, has become increasingly diverse, the average population density of the state has become high and will continue to increase overtime, and the entire state has higher urban and suburban populations and less rural populations than it used to.

North Carolina, which is another former Confederate state with a long history of slavery and racism, eventually became a swing state by around 2008. Obama actually won that state for his first presidential election. Biden and Harris were very close to winning it in 2020. This is again is due the major increase in diversity, major increase in average population density of the state, and having a bit of a higher education level per capita than before.

 

Texas itself has become increasingly less red since around 2004 for similar reasons. It's looking like that state will probably turn purple and then Blue within about a decade or so. This is because the state's overall population and average population density have been growing like crazy over the past decades. It now has high urban and suburban populations which both still continue to boom while the state's total rural population keeps declining. Furthermore, it has now become the 2nd most diverse state in the country. If the state had a higher education level per capita and/or was less religious then the state would very likely transition to Blue even sooner than a decade.

 

I also think that Democrats in states such as Arizona, Texas, and Florida, need to do a better job with uniting Democrats at the state level and getting more colored people in their states to vote for Democrats.

 

 

Edited June 2, 2022 by Hardkill

[Raze]

On 6/2/2022 at 3:22 PM, Hardkill said:

 

 

Texas itself has become increasingly less red since around 2004 for similar reasons. It's looking like that state will probably turn purple and then Blue within about a decade or so. This is because the state's overall population and average population density have been growing like crazy over the past decades. It now has high urban and suburban populations which both still continue to boom while the state's total rural population keeps declining. Furthermore, it has now become the 2nd most diverse state in the country. If the state had a higher education level per capita and/or was less religious then the state would very likely transition to Blue even sooner than a decade.

 

I also think that Democrats in states such as Arizona, Texas, and Florida, need to do a better job with uniting Democrats at the state level and getting more colored people in their states to vote for Democrats.

 

 

That’s because Texas has a large and growing Hispanic population, which leans democrat. However they are trending red, ruining the democrats advantage.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/14/republican-mayra-flores-flips-dem-house-seat-in-south-texas-00039717

[Leo Gura]

The most effective tactic Dems have is to simply move from Blue states to Red states.

If Dems did this one thing enough, Repubs would lose all their power.

[Rokazulu]

They could start by fulfilling a single significant promise of the myriads that they campaign on.

But, that never seems to be their main priority.

Which is why it means almost nothing whether they regain their advantage or lose it.

Edited June 15, 2022 by Rokazulu

[VioletFlame]

7 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

The most effective tactic Dems have is to simply move from Blue states to Red states.

If Dems did this one thing enough, Repubs would lose all their power.

Wait, so the ultimate goal is to eradicate Repubs? Please correct me if I'm not following here but this doesn't sound like a healthy or high-conscious transition. It doesn't sound like stage Yellow... 

Leo, I have a question. I often contemplate just how ideological and bigoted BOTH parties seem to be. Wouldn't stage Yellow avoid to take any particular side and aim to take both parties into consideration? Wouldn't Yellow strive to integrate both sides of the coin? After all, a bird cannot fly with one wing.

I'm not much of a politically-inclined person. And today, I often find myself completely flabbergasted by the actions/ideas of both Repubs and Dems. Frankly, neither party seems very high-conscious to me and many of it comes across as blind and lacking true virtue and integrity. We seem to be living and walking with cognitive dissonance. And honestly, to be totally blunt, I think it's all bullshit, a circus show really, and that both are clearly ignorant. 

Throughout my whole childhood-adolescence, I was literally one of three white kids in the entire school. I was teased for being white. And I even recall some of my non-Caucasian teachers, like adults inappropriately mocking me and pointing out my "whiteness" in front of the whole class. Just throwing backhanded compliments, and subtle remarks which would leave me feeling so uncomfortable in my own skin. So really, this may sound obvious, but I think it's a people problem, not a political party issue. No matter who the minority is, as long as there is a minority, there is going to be discrimination. Because people judge, they can't accept things as they are, and they simply lack deep empathy and emotional intelligence. This is the fundamental core reason why all wars and cultural/sociological problems arise. 

It helped to stand up for myself, and now some of my most best friends are black, including one that picked on me that time. Lol! Of course, this was yeears ago, but I called her out on her crap once and we actually ended up becoming really close friends. This was probably because although I am sensitive, and can take things to heart, I am also easily capable of laughing at myself. 

Edited June 15, 2022 by VioletFlame

[Hardkill]

10 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

The most effective tactic Dems have is to simply move from Blue states to Red states.

If Dems did this one thing enough, Repubs would lose all their power.

That's already been one of the root causes as to why the voter demographics in southern states including Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, and even South Carolina have all have been shifting more towards Purple to Blue since around year 2000. 

Utah, Montana, and Idaho have also become increasingly less Red since 2000.

According to wikipedia, due to The New Great Migration of blacks in America, which has been going on since the 1970s, "African American populations have continued to drop throughout much of the Northeast, especially from the state of New York and northern New Jersey, as they rise in the South." 

Many Latinos, Asians, and younger liberals have also been moving from the coastal and northeastern regions of the country to the Southern and more middle regions of the country.

Edited June 15, 2022 by Hardkill

[Leo Gura]

8 hours ago, VioletFlame said:

Wait, so the ultimate goal is to eradicate Repubs?

They wouldn't be eradicated. Just how the Senate is set up, democracy would finally be restored.

Quote

Please correct me if I'm not following here but this doesn't sound like a healthy or high-conscious transition. It doesn't sound like stage Yellow... 

It's way healthier than allowing an underdeveloped minority to rule over the majority, as now.

Quote

Leo, I have a question. I often contemplate just how ideological and bigoted BOTH parties seem to be.

This is a gross false equivalence.

Quote

Wouldn't stage Yellow avoid to take any particular side and aim to take both parties into consideration? Wouldn't Yellow strive to integrate both sides of the coin? After all, a bird cannot fly with one wing.

Not in such a naive and simplistic manner. One side wants to overthrow democracy, the other does not. Yellow would factor that in.

Quote

I'm not much of a politically-inclined person. And today, I often find myself completely flabbergasted by the actions/ideas of both Repubs and Dems.

It's precisely because you aren't following politics closely and carefully that you don't see the asymmetry.

Yellow is not about taking both sides in a debate equally. You have to look at the fundaments. Dems and Repubs are NOT the same but opposite.

[Oeaohoo]

17 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

One side wants to overthrow democracy, the other does not. Yellow would factor that in.

Exactly. One side says that anybody who isn’t on their side wants to overthrow democracy, the other side… wants to overthrow democracy! A match made in Heaven.

9 hours ago, VioletFlame said:

No matter who the minority is, as long as there is a minority, there is going to be discrimination.

Being a minority doesn’t necessarily translate to being oppressed. There are many cases, most in fact, in which a minority rules over a majority. This can be true even when the minority is alien from the majority beneath it. For example, after the Normans had overthrown the existing elite in England, everything was reoriented towards their styles and values. It was forbidden to even speak English in the courts!

9 hours ago, VioletFlame said:

And honestly, to be totally blunt, I think it's all bullshit, a circus show really, and that both are clearly ignorant.

Yes. What we live under today in the West is really the tyranny of Chaos ruled by an oligarchy of corporate executives and pretending to be a democracy.

[VioletFlame]

34 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

It's precisely because you aren't following politics closely and carefully that you don't see the asymmetry.

Yes, thank you, that makes sense. It's certainly not my area of expertise and I often find that it confuses or unsettles me because it doesn't seem to resemble anything spiritual.

They may be opposite, but I do think both parties exhibit signs of bigotry, bias, and dogma. As long as someone has a strict and rigid opinion about something, they will be less impartial and more adamant on supporting their own perspective/belief system and only their own perspective. I've witnessed blatant ideology from both the far-right and the far-left. To the point where I don't even know which one to trust anymore or which one to fit myself into.   

Edited June 15, 2022 by VioletFlame

[Razard86]

1 hour ago, Leo Gura said:

They wouldn't be eradicated. Just how the Senate is set up, democracy would finally be restored.

It's way healthier than allowing an underdeveloped minority to rule over the majority, as now.

This is a gross false equivalence.

Not in such a naive and simplistic manner. One side wants to overthrow democracy, the other does not. Yellow would factor that in.

It's precisely because you aren't following politics closely and carefully that you don't see the asymmetry.

Yellow is not about taking both sides in a debate equally. You have to look at the fundaments. Dems and Repubs are NOT the same but opposite.

I have to disagree with you Leo. I studied politics for the past 15 years and it goes much deeper. First of all its a farce the Democrats are not even remotely that much different than the Republicans. The current system is too full of money in politics. The party is so corrupt they joined together in the last election to keep Bernie Sanders from winning. 

Read this article. https://theweek.com/articles/907608/bernie-sanders-didnt-lose-because-ideas-unpopular

Is the Republicans more extreme yes? But the Democrats are not far behind. 

They are bought out by too many corporations. What is even worse is a lot of the Democrats first became Politicians because they wanted to help people. You should hear some of the things a Young Joe Biden said, they are completely different than what he says now. Biden considers himself a realist. So he just plays the game how it is played, he allowed politics to corrupt him instead of challenging the status quo. 

The Democratic Party is deeply flawed and it is why they are going to have HUGE LOSSES SOON. Its not the Republicans holding us back, its the Democrats. The Democrats need to move so far from the Republicans that they become an actual distinct party. The first step would be to drop their corporate donors.

Edited June 16, 2022 by Razard86

[Leo Gura]

22 minutes ago, Razard86 said:

Its not the Republicans holding us back, its the Democrats

Lol

Your analysis makes me want to vomit in my mouth.

[Leo Gura]

26 minutes ago, Cykaaaa said:

Of course republicans are worse.

They aren't just worse. They are two orders of magnitude worse.

Don't pull that Jimmy Dore BS with me.

[Raze]

3 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

They aren't just worse. They are two orders of magnitude worse.

Don't pull that Jimmy Dore BS with me.

The country normally cycles from democrats for 4-8 years, to republicans for 4-12 years, on repeat. If democrats are overseeing a situation that worsens the behavior of republicans, they are partially responsible. Same with republicans towards democrats.

In “Coming apart” by Charles Murray he predicted the current state of the Republican Party based on the collapsing white working class. Democrats had multiple admins that oversaw this and didn’t improve it or even worsened it, so their issues trickled into the Republican Party.

Edited June 16, 2022 by Raze

[Raze]

22 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

The most effective tactic Dems have is to simply move from Blue states to Red states.

If Dems did this one thing enough, Repubs would lose all their power.

I don’t think realistically they can convince enough people to move for that. Plus republicans could move as well to counter this, there are more republicans in California than any other state, but their votes don’t mean much for federal elections because democrats always outvote them.

Edited June 16, 2022 by Raze

[Joel3102]

The Republican Party has gotten completely wacko. Most of the party believe the election was stolen and a concerning amount believe in Qanon and Anti Vax stuff. 
Makes the Bush era neocons seem reasonable….

[kray]

3 hours ago, Joel3102 said:

The Republican Party has gotten completely wacko. Most of the party believe the election was stolen and a concerning amount believe in Qanon and Anti Vax stuff. 
Makes the Bush era neocons seem reasonable….

These new repubs make me miss those bush era neocons 

[Hardkill]

4 hours ago, Raze said:

I don’t think realistically they can convince enough people to move for that. Plus republicans could move as well to counter this, there are more republicans in California than any other state, but their votes don’t mean much for federal elections because democrats always outvote them.

Didn't you read my posts on this thread?

Look up the historical trend of the presidential elections and the US congressional elections for the states of Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas, Utah, Montana, and Idaho, starting from around the year 2000 and onward. You'll see how within each of those states the Democrats have kept increasing their vote share while the Republicans' margin of victory has kept declining since 2000. That's why both Georgia and Arizona shockingly already turned into purple states and look like they are on their way to becoming blue.

This has been happening over the past two decades is not because the Democratic Party has done something to convince tons and tons of Democrats and liberals to moved from blue states to move in droves to these red and purple states. The reason this has been happening is because there have been many Democrats, many black people, many brown people, and many young liberal leaning people from the Northeastern states, West Coast, and urban areas of the Midwest who have been moving to these red and purple states due to financial reasons and cultural reasons. The red states are generally a lot more affordable to live in than blue states. Also, according to wikipedia, "since 1970, deindustrialization of cities in the Northeastern and Midwestern United States, growth of jobs in the "New South" with lower costs of living, family, desire to reunite with specific Black cultures (such as the Gullah people), kinship ties, the perception of lessening discrimination and religious connections have all acted to attract African Americans to the Southern United States in substantial numbers."

Nevertheless, I think that the Democratic Party should actually try really hard to persuade even a lot more Dems and Libs from the blue states to move to the red states. lol

As, to your point about Republicans countering this by have more Repubs and Cons move from red states to blue states, unfortunately that's kind of been happening with Florida. The reason why that state has become more conservative and Republicans over the past few years is not just because of Trump and DeSantis. It also because of significant percentage of Cubans who have a great fear of socialism/communism, and the influx of conservative white retirees flocking from the Northeastern region and urban Midwest to Florida.

 

 

Edited June 16, 2022 by Hardkill
more necessary info.

[Oeaohoo]

One of the basic problems of political analysis today is a failure to distinguish between polity (rule of the virtuous many) and democracy (rule of the corrupt many), as Aristotle defined them in the Politics. In common parlance today both of these concepts are included under the name of “democracy” - such that any claim that not every vote is equal within the democratic process is conceived of as “a threat to democracy” - whilst for some others democracy refers only to polity (rule of the virtuous many); for these latter people, democracy itself (as rule of the corrupt many) is a “threat to our democracy”!

The real question in politics today is: who are the virtuous many? Who’s vote should be taken seriously? The same distinction between two groups - one who define democracy as “vote of all citizens regardless” and the other who define it as “vote of the virtuous many” - is useful here. For the latter group, democracy has become synonymous with the maintenance of the decadent global American empire, so the values of this empire are what defines virtue: a bizarre mixture of bread crumbs of tradition, corrupt corporate capitalism and woke neoliberal ideology. Anybody who diverges from this value system is not included within the “virtuous many” and so is regarded as a “threat to democracy”.

It is only natural then that those members of the first group who do not share these values would turn against democracy as defined by the latter group. They are the enemies - “the corrupt many” whose vote should not be taken into consideration - of this democratic system and so it would be absurd for them to support it. Many believers in this latter form of democracy (rule of the virtuous many as defined by the decadent global American Empire), however, seem to be surprised when the people their democracy has defined as enemies… define democracy as its enemy in return! After all, this is the basic delusion of liberal democracy: the attempt to transcend without including the distinction between in-group and out-group, friend and foe, us and them.

As a metaphysical aside, in one of Leo’s videos (probably the one on Gödel or paradoxes) he showed how self-referential systems breed paradoxes. Democracy is a self-referential system (people can vote on how they feel about democracy itself; by voting for an anti-democratic leader, for example) so the paradoxical situation can emerge where the citizens of the democracy democratically elect somebody to overthrow the democracy! Is that democracy or isn’t it?

[Rokazulu]

8 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

They aren't just worse. They are two orders of magnitude worse.

Cyanide is also worse for the body than Arsenic.
Are we really making a case that continuing to ingest arsenic, is going to end well?


 

7 hours ago, Joel3102 said:

Most of the party believe the election was stolen and a concerning amount believe in Qanon and Anti Vax stuff. 

And yet, Democrats still believe in a Russiagate conspiracy.
They also believe in war now, apparently. They are to the right of some republicans on that issue and yet, they are the obvious choice?
 

3 hours ago, kray said:

These new repubs make me miss those bush era neocons 

Bush started a war that killed millions based on a lie.
A literal war crime.

Yet, why do we ignore that and focus on Jan 6th? Voting for a 40 (now 41) Billion dollar weapons package to Ukraine to fight a superpower in a losing proxy war? Instead of spending that money on housing, stimulus checks, healthcare, green energy infrastructure?

What is reasonable about any of this?
Why would anyone vote for either party?

They say:
Vote Republicans To Stop Democrats; Vote Democrats To Stop Republicans.

Not a solution. It's a death wish.
 

Edited June 16, 2022 by Rokazulu