Scholz: Russian energy ban would mean European recession

[Ajay0]

German chancellor Olaf Scholz warned that an immediate ban on Russian energy imports would trigger an economic recession in Germany and across Europe, which is recovering from the economic strain of the  covid pandemic for the last two years.

https://www.politico.eu/article/olaf-scholz-warns-against-russia-energy-embargo/
 

Quote

 

Speaking to the Bundestag, Scholz said Germany would end its energy dependence on Russia in due course but cutting all ties now would hit the German economy when it was unprepared.

"We will end this dependence [on Russian oil, coal and gas] as quickly as we can, but to do that from one day to the next would mean plunging our country and all of Europe into a recession," the chancellor said, warning that "hundreds of thousands of jobs would be at risk, entire industries would be on the brink."

"The truth is that the sanctions that have already been decided also hit many citizens hard, and not just at the gas pump," Scholz continued, arguing that sanctions "must not hit the European countries harder than the Russian leadership."

Scholz's remarks represented a blunt rejection of calls from some EU countries, particularly in Eastern Europe, for a swift ban on Russian energy imports in response to Moscow's war in Ukraine.

His comments came as Germany's influential economic research institute Ifo cut this year's growth forecast for the national economy and raised inflation expectations, citing the effects of the war and sanctions.

As rising prices have already started hitting businesses and consumers, the chancellor announced further measures by Finance Minister Christian Lindner to alleviate the additional cost "in the coming weeks."

 

 

[Lyubov]

Good, time to rebuild Europe so it’s not Russian energy dependent. Won’t be easy but it’s time to disarm Russia, cripple their economy and not let them rebuild. They can isolate with their Nukes. This has gone beyond just Russian security interests. Russia is helmed by an imperialist that would clearly invade its other neighbors west of it if they weren’t in NATO. I support USA carrying some of this weight as well through programs that aid European economy. 

[Ajay0]

The U.S. itself is hit with 40 year high of inflation .

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-10/u-s-inflation-hits-fresh-40-year-high-of-7-9-before-oil-spike

It's time for Nato-U.S. and Russia to set up diplomatic channels and create a win-win scenario for themselves with other international diplomats, and end the Ukraine war.

The global economy is taking major hits which will exacerbate the economic strain stemming from the covid pandemic of last two years.

 

Edited April 5, 2022 by Ajay0

[Con heo dien]

According to this paper a German ban would likely cause a 3% GDP decline. Goldman Sachs comes to an almost identical conclusion. So that's less of a decline than the Covid crisis caused in Germany (4.5%).

https://www.econtribute.de/RePEc/ajk/ajkpbs/ECONtribute_PB_028_2022.pdf

[OceanRiver]

@Ajay0 just happy not in war

nice and cosy at home 

wishing the ukranians and good poeple of russia well

along iwth all other people

[Lyubov]

1 hour ago, Ajay0 said:

The U.S. itself is hit with 40 year high of inflation .

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-10/u-s-inflation-hits-fresh-40-year-high-of-7-9-before-oil-spike

It's time for Nato-U.S. and Russia to set up diplomatic channels and create a win-win scenario for themselves with other international diplomats, and end the Ukraine war.

The global economy is taking major hits which will exacerbate the economic strain stemming from the covid pandemic of last two years.

 

Absolutely not. Putin is a pariah for life after this ridiculous war. He can not be trusted and zero leeway should be given to him or his regime. Russia can work with the western fold and our allies when they have a regime change and show they won’t antagonize their neighbors with force. I will gladly hope the west shows goodwill and a willingness to work with them when they change regimes and move away from autocratic leadership. Far too much of a power concentration in Russia and their entire government system will bully their neighbors as king as they are at their current level of development. 

Edited April 5, 2022 by Lyubov

[Yarco]

Germany has like a 6 week reserve of gas left, at which point it'll have to start rationing and only providing it to only essential stuff like hospitals. Better hope winter is over and people don't need to heat their house any more by that point. And then yes, factories requiring fuel to run will have to start laying off thousands of people, and it'll have a huge domino effect on the entire economy.

Russia is doing just fine. The ruble is back to its pre-Special-Operations value. Western Europe are the only ones that are going to get hurt, the longer this goes on. Something like 80%+ of Russians support what Putin is doing too. If you want to cope and believe those numbers are fake, fine. But Russia isn't going to be destroyed from within either.

[pedro23]

@Yarco

29 minutes ago, Yarco said:

Russia is doing just fine. The ruble is back to its pre-Special-Operations value.

Don't be so sure. The ruble is artificially stimulated. It is quite hard if not impossible to sustain that long term. 
While I do not know how much reserves every country has, If the E.U is going to cut off the russian gas it is gonna hit extremely har russia too. Firstly, around 60% of russia's revenue comes from gas and oil exports. E.U is the main beneficiary of russian energy exports. If they refuse these energy sources russia is going to lose an enormous part of its revenue.
Secondly, when nobody is buying your gas and oil, you cannot just keep pumping it. You need to do something with it, either burn, either fill your reserves and after that close your oil and gas wells. And if you close them it's game over. Russia is extremely vulnerable to energy sanctions.
Before spreading Tucker Carlson type propaganda, do your research. 

[Ajay0]

16 hours ago, Lyubov said:

Absolutely not. Putin is a pariah for life after this ridiculous war. He can not be trusted and zero leeway should be given to him or his regime. Russia can work with the western fold and our allies when they have a regime change and show they won’t antagonize their neighbors with force. I will gladly hope the west shows goodwill and a willingness to work with them when they change regimes and move away from autocratic leadership. Far too much of a power concentration in Russia and their entire government system will bully their neighbors as king as they are at their current level of development. 

 Russian nuclear arsenal is superior to the U.S and Nato put together and has the capacity to wipe them out many times over.

Obviously a nuclear holocaust which wipes out the U.S, Europe and Russia is not an option and is a worse case scenario.

The global economy will also get a major hit and will not be able to recover for centuries.

The best case scenario is for Western and russian diplomats to sit together and negotiate, under the supervision of impartial international diplomats and experienced negotiators.

A win-win scenario can be definitely formulated for the west and russia, and this can enable the end of the ukraine war and bring about world peace.

Edited April 6, 2022 by Ajay0

[Lyubov]

18 hours ago, Yarco said:

Germany has like a 6 week reserve of gas left, at which point it'll have to start rationing and only providing it to only essential stuff like hospitals. Better hope winter is over and people don't need to heat their house any more by that point. And then yes, factories requiring fuel to run will have to start laying off thousands of people, and it'll have a huge domino effect on the entire economy.

Russia is doing just fine. The ruble is back to its pre-Special-Operations value. Western Europe are the only ones that are going to get hurt, the longer this goes on. Something like 80%+ of Russians support what Putin is doing too. If you want to cope and believe those numbers are fake, fine. But Russia isn't going to be destroyed from within either.

This isn’t true. The ruble is being propped up. Just about any exchange will still give you the post crash prices from early March in exchange for dollars because they know it isn’t actually worth what it is right now. Energy sanctions would absolutely hurt Russia worse than the west. People act like they are some self sustaining ecosystem when they basically rely kn western tech and those energy contracts to stay afloat. Germany would absolutely have a recession but not see their entire economy ruined unlike Russia. But I do agree that most of Russia supports this war and Putin. 

Edited April 6, 2022 by Lyubov

[Breakingthewall]

2 hours ago, Ajay0 said:

Russian nuclear arsenal is superior to the U.S and Nato put together and has the capacity to wipe them out many times over.

Let's  see, in the case of an atomic war of total destruction, how many missiles would come to touch US soil. on the other hand, if nato unleashes all its power on russia, the destruction would be much more effective

[Lyubov]

2 hours ago, Ajay0 said:

 Russian nuclear arsenal is superior to the U.S and Nato put together and has the capacity to wipe them out many times over.

Obviously a nuclear holocaust which wipes out the U.S, Europe and Russia is not an option and is a worse case scenario.

The global economy will also get a major hit and will not be able to recover for centuries.

The best case scenario is for Western and russian diplomats to sit together and negotiate, under the supervision of impartial international diplomats and experienced negotiators.

A win-win scenario can be definitely formulated for the west and russia, and this can enable the end of the ukraine war and bring about world peace.

They have been talking about their military being all big and bad and their dead bodies now litter Ukraine along with their destroyed equipment. They are retreating cause they can’t do anything right. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Russian Nuclear arsenal is as badly maintained and as overly hyped as their military. USA has less nukes but far more capable technology for delivering them. I think saber rattling makes for a stupid conversation though. I don’t think who will beat who with nukes makes sense to talk about now. Russia needs to be blocked off from the west for good though after this. Absolutely no compromising with the current regime. 

[Con heo dien]

2 hours ago, Ajay0 said:

 Russian nuclear arsenal is superior to the U.S and Nato put together and has the capacity to wipe them out many times over.

 

I doubt this is true, but it also doesn't matter, MAD is still relevant

2 hours ago, Ajay0 said:

A win-win scenario can be definitely formulated for the west and russia, and this can enable the end of the ukraine war and bring about world peace.

There is no win-win here. Even in case of peace Ukraine will be in a terrible position. Also years of mistrust and rearmament will be our faith.

[Ajay0]

40 minutes ago, Breakingthewall said:

Let's  see, in the case of an atomic war of total destruction, how many missiles would come to touch US soil. on the other hand, if nato unleashes all its power on russia, the destruction would be much more effective

Even if just ten percent of Russia's vast arsenal touches the U.S. and Europe, it is enough to end their national existence.  It has developed hypersonic missiles designed to overcome all known western missile defense systems at present.

Yes, U.S-Nato retaliation will also wipe out Russia.

The whole west from U.S. to Russia will be a radioactive wasteland , and it will take many centuries for it to become inhabitable again.

This nuclear devastation will also create a huge financial and economic burden on other nations who are not involved due to onset of nuclear winter. All thanks to politicians backed by the military-industrial complex motivated by greed and not able to see the bigger picture.

 

 

[Con heo dien]

33 minutes ago, Ajay0 said:

This nuclear devastation will also create a huge financial and economic burden on other nations who are not involved due to onset of nuclear winter. All thanks to politicians backed by the military-industrial complex motivated by greed and not able to see the bigger picture.

 

 

This is quite the jump

[Ajay0]

1 hour ago, Con heo dien said:

This is quite the jump

We should also account for all worse case scenarios in long-term strategic thinking. It will be stupid to repent over spilt milk and cry futilely later on.

 

 

[Con heo dien]

20 minutes ago, Ajay0 said:

We should also account for all worse case scenarios in long-term strategic thinking. It will be stupid to repent over spilt milk and cry futilely later on.

 

 

Perhaps, but personally I do not consider such scenarios. A nuclear war will mean either direct death or, probably depending on one's location, continue to live on an unlivable planet. What's the point of considering scenarios? Especially in a thread about possible economic decline

[Ajay0]

30 minutes ago, Con heo dien said:

Perhaps, but personally I do not consider such scenarios. A nuclear war will mean either direct death or, probably depending on one's location, continue to live on an unlivable planet. What's the point of considering scenarios? Especially in a thread about possible economic decline

 The present war waged with conventional weapons have in itself delivered a blow to the world economy due to rising fuel prices, inflation and its indirect effects. Peace in Ukraine and Russia are of prime importance for overall economic development of the world.

 Escalation into a nuclear war will aggravate the economic damage many times over. In the heat of battle, reason can be undermined by emotion, and this has happened many times in the past.

 You might not like these points as they are understandably nasty and painful and one would rather read something else.  But these hard facts can also help set our bearings and navigate more prudently. I do a swot analysis myself for my projects.

 I am a well-wisher of all parties and want the war to end through diplomacy or other means rather than hear talk of casualties on both sides each day, which will aggravate the fissures .

We have been suffering from covid for the last two years, along with the resultant economic damage, and now this new calamity based on man-made boundaries has cropped up.

Edited April 6, 2022 by Ajay0

[BlueOak]

6 hours ago, Ajay0 said:

 Russian nuclear arsenal is superior to the U.S and Nato put together and has the capacity to wipe them out many times over.

Obviously a nuclear holocaust which wipes out the U.S, Europe and Russia is not an option and is a worse case scenario.

The global economy will also get a major hit and will not be able to recover for centuries.

The best case scenario is for Western and russian diplomats to sit together and negotiate, under the supervision of impartial international diplomats and experienced negotiators.

A win-win scenario can be definitely formulated for the west and russia, and this can enable the end of the ukraine war and bring about world peace.

American and Russian arsenals are about even. Seeing's as many are short range tactical nukes on the Russian side. Its irrelevant though as both sides could wipe out life on earth many times over. This is hyberbole or an exaggeration of the actual combined reality we are currently living in. Russia will not intimidate others to dealing with them again.

Especially as its EUROPE I don't know how many times I have to shout this, that Russia has harmed the most.

There is no win-win scenario here. This is lose - lose. You are lying to yourself if you think many people in Europe will accept dealing with Russia even 5 or 10 years from now. It will be deeply unpopular for their governments. Though businesses will not care (Orange), there will be sanctions in place to make it very costly which they will care about. We all create our own version of reality to live in, so I understand how I can look at your position and you mine and think it fantasy. But what you perhaps can't see is how much people hate Russia especially in Europe and somewhat in America, that won't go away because the dead ukrainians and their now obliterated towns and villages will continue to not be there. It'll take a generation or two for that to go away. 

Europe and Russia are done for the foreseeable future.

[hello1234]

@Ajay0 russia is acting as a terrorist threatening the world with using nukes, russia should be treated as a terrorist organization, as far as I know, you shouldn’t be negotiating with terrorists

I think accepting the fact that russia is a terrorist country is the first step. After that the countries should come together and decide how to liquidate this major threat to world security. 

Edited April 6, 2022 by hello1234