Russian invasion a disaster, according to Russian soldiers

[How to be wise]

 

[vladorion]

8 hours ago, How to be wise said:

 

The weather in Nikolaev (he says they're by Nikolaev in the original audio, which is longer) has been around 5 to 10 degrees (currently around 10-15 during the day) Celsius and didn't go below -5 since the invasion, yet 50% of their troops suffer from leg frostbites (not face, which is more exposed, but legs).

That's the kind of content news.com.au produces.

If you listen to more of their "intercepted phone calls", they all sound about the same.

[hello1234]

14 hours ago, vladorion said:

The weather in Nikolaev (he says they're by Nikolaev in the original audio, which is longer) has been around 5 to 10 degrees (currently around 10-15 during the day) Celsius and didn't go below -5 since the invasion, yet 50% of their troops suffer from leg frostbites (not face, which is more exposed, but legs).

That's the kind of content news.com.au produces.

If you listen to more of their "intercepted phone calls", they all sound about the same.

Don’t wanna engage with this lying russian troll, but I just can’t resist anymore - here are the temperatures for the month of March in Nikolaev:

Edited March 24, 2022 by hello1234

[Husseinisdoingfine]

The fact that Russia is going to lose is so inevitably clear.

[Hardkill]

17 minutes ago, Husseinisdoingfine said:

The fact that Russia is going to lose is so inevitably clear.

You think that Russia isn't going to even capture Ukraine?

[Husseinisdoingfine]

12 minutes ago, Hardkill said:

You think that Russia isn't going to even capture Ukraine?

There were leaked documents where they had expected to take all major objectives in two weeks. It’s been a month.

[vladorion]

1 hour ago, hello1234 said:

Don’t wanna engage with this lying russian troll, but I just can’t resist anymore - here are the temperatures for the month of March in Nikolaev:

I wasn't that much off. It was above 0 on most days and slightly below 0 on most nights. Average 4-5 during during the day and -2 at night.

Everyone who doesn't hold your view about the situation and who doesn't believe everything they're being told by the Ukrainian and Western media is a lying Russian troll. I get it.

Edited March 24, 2022 by vladorion

[Danioover9000]

@Hardkill

21 minutes ago, Hardkill said:

You think that Russia isn't going to even capture Ukraine?

   Probably not, maybe they hold a small part of it.

Edited March 24, 2022 by Danioover9000

[Hardkill]

2 minutes ago, Danioover9000 said:

@Hardkill

   Probably not, maybe they hold a small part of it.

What about the weapons that Russia still have left to use?

[Danioover9000]

@Hardkill

6 minutes ago, Hardkill said:

What about the weapons that Russia still have left to use?

   You mean the nukes?

[Hardkill]

18 minutes ago, Danioover9000 said:

@Hardkill

   You mean the nukes?

Those and also the large amount of chemical weapons and missiles they have?

[Danioover9000]

@Hardkill

2 minutes ago, Hardkill said:

Those and also the large amount of chemical weapons and missiles they have?

   Do you understand my position on this conflict?

[Hardkill]

12 minutes ago, Danioover9000 said:

@Hardkill

   Do you understand my position on this conflict?

I am not sure.

[StarStruck]

This will lead to the slow but steady disintegration of the Russian federation. It is a huge blow to the collective Russian ego and minorities will smell blood. On top of that the Russian economy is slowly getting dismantled by the sanctions. I'm expecting Russia to become much more aggressive because it is seeing the writing on the wall which will only accelerate its demise.

Edited March 24, 2022 by StarStruck

[PurpleTree]

8 hours ago, StarStruck said:

This will lead to the slow but steady disintegration of the Russian federation. It is a huge blow to the collective Russian ego and minorities will smell blood. On top of that the Russian economy is slowly getting dismantled by the sanctions. I'm expecting Russia to become much more aggressive because it is seeing the writing on the wall which will only accelerate its demise.

i agree. in the long-ish term this will probably happen.

[Danioover9000]

@Hardkill

12 hours ago, Hardkill said:

I am not sure.

   My take is that how Russia loses, if it's inevitable, is important. If Russia loses too much face, it will retaliate extremely hard, even risking WW3 and throwing caution to the wind. So, we ideally want to offer Russia a way to not lose too much face, so we have to negotiate carefully. For example, Ukraine being a member of NATO is threatening too much to Putin, the kremlin and some parts of Russia bordering NATO due to ideological differences, so whatever the aftermath is, when the USA and others are at the negotiation table with Russia, behind closed doors, making and stipulating that Ukraine can be an EU member, for the economy, but not a member of NATO, will give them a way to escape and save face. And if Russia is also concerned that the Ukraine will surpass it economically, part of the agreement might include some percentage that goes to Russia. This is one example, but whether it would be like this is another matter.

   In the long term, the USA should be more concerned with China and with the disputed claims of owning the Islands.

[Fleetinglife]

The lowest bar, in my estimate at least, that the Russian military and its current leadership would be willing to go at this stage of things would be to declare a Pyrrhic, yet semblance of a strategic victory - no NATO membership for Ukraine and the severe crippling of its Armed Forces and their foreign military aid - so they might try to force some kind of armistice or peace agreement until annual May 9 Victory March Parade event in Russia - if they have of course the resources to maintain waging the war at this intensity for that long - so they can attempt to declare some type of symbolic victory during that event - or at at least a threshold achievement or victory point in the war to paint it until then as some sort of victory in the war at least in one strategic domain crippling some nationalist strongholds of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

They need to do this in order to maintain support for the war and to prepare in advance and pre-emptively lessen the incoming potential aftershock blow for the status, image, and credibility of the long term continuity of the survivability of their regime with the way they were unable to fulfill some of the political and strategic objectives and goals promises they made at the start of the declaration of the war.

They can't afford for the sake of the survivability of their regime, at any point, for the war to be painted overall as a loss for them in all the crucial strategic domains for which they decided to wage it and pursue it as a ''forced hand political option'' in the first place.

Edited March 24, 2022 by Fleetinglife

[Fleetinglife]

5 hours ago, Fleetinglife said:

The lowest bar, in my estimate at least, that the Russian military and its current leadership would be willing to go at this stage of things would be to declare a Pyrrhic, yet semblance of a strategic victory - no NATO membership for Ukraine and the severe crippling of its Armed Forces and their foreign military aid - so they might try to force some kind of armistice or peace agreement until annual May 9 Victory March Parade event in Russia - if they have of course the resources to maintain waging the war at this intensity for that long - so they can attempt to declare some type of symbolic victory during that event - or at at least a threshold achievement or victory point in the war to paint it until then as some sort of victory in the war at least in one strategic domain crippling some nationalist strongholds of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

They need to do this in order to maintain support for the war and to prepare in advance and pre-emptively lessen the incoming potential aftershock blow for the status, image, and credibility of the long term continuity of the survivability of their regime with the way they were unable to fulfill some of the political and strategic objectives and goals promises they made at the start of the declaration of the war.

They can't afford for the sake of the survivability of their regime, at any point, for the war to be painted overall as a loss for them in all the crucial strategic domains for which they decided to wage it and pursue it as a ''forced hand political option'' in the first place.

Did I call it or had a hunch or what ? Let's if it actually transpires that way and if it's not overly confident optimistic hopes and assessments or propagandistic disinformation campaign attempt directed towards the Russian military by Ukranian counter- intelligence services. 

 

Edited March 24, 2022 by Fleetinglife

[BlueOak]

21 hours ago, vladorion said:

I wasn't that much off. It was above 0 on most days and slightly below 0 on most nights. Average 4-5 during during the day and -2 at night.

There have been reports of Russians getting frostbite elsewhere. I just did a check and any temperature below  -0.55C to exposed skin will give frostbite. It was part of the strategy to block off convoys, cut off their fuel supplies and food supplies. Without adequate food frostbite becomes a bigger problem as the body can't stay warm, and a lot of those soldiers were sleeping in their vehicles with little heat.

 

[BlueOak]

22 hours ago, Hardkill said:

You think that Russia isn't going to even capture Ukraine?

Not without a few hundred thousand troops to occupy it over 20 years. A military analyst stated it takes about 1 soldier for every 20 people in rebellion rotated out over time. *I think that's where the claim of many hundreds of thousands come from, to supply them and to rotate their deployment, but looking over it a few hundred thousand should be enough. There will be losses during that time to occupying force. Though honestly right now you could make that 5% of the population indefinitely from what this looks like.

Unless Russia turns many more cities into rubble and removes the population. Otherwise whatever it puts in place will be removed a week after they leave. If they leave a token force the government won't function, and there will partisans operating indefinitely.

Then we have if Russia keep rubbling cities there will be nothing for them to capture anyway, except the gas in the ground that nobodies going to pay them for 10 years from now as people slowly move off their supply. The entire strategy is to shoot themselves in the foot over and over to achieve the opposite result of what Russia want, until they meet a reality Russia can accept. Like most of us I suppose, i'm no different. I bang my head against the wall until there is no more wall, no more impetus to, and probably a very bruised head. NATO does this too of course, but overall their strategy has been somewhat better since this mess started.

*This is all best case scenario for Russia, worst case is they keep losing ground or men until their own country collapses from economic sanctions, military expenditure, or monumental losses. 

That is until the two sides negotiate, but they are still far apart.

Edited March 25, 2022 by BlueOak
Because its late and I can't do maths