Understanding Russia & Putin

[K Ghoul]

8 hours ago, itachi uchiha said:

any narrative the is against pro ukrain pro nato is considered a conspiracy theory .truth is not one sided. the other side also has  truth. but if u say that the truth of the other side is conspiracy theory and shut it down, then u r delusional. this forum has turned into an eco chamber. u better fix this or many people will leave. the quality of this forum needs improvement

This is a private/independently owned platform, and if this is how Leo wants to run it I think it’s fair to accept and not try to fight-the-system and just let it be what it is. Lots of other online places where I am able to freely express myself so I don’t care all that much if I am not able to say a few things here and there, it doesn’t make me feel silenced. We don’t know - maybe Ukrainian ultranationalists got ahold of him and are at his throat. @Leo Gura blink twice if you need help.

 

 

Twitter also just banned Scott Ritter so it’s important to realize where this is all going and adjust accordingly.

Edited April 7, 2022 by K Ghoul

[How to be wise]

Today the world gave Russia the middle finger by voting to kick it out of the un human rights council. 

[Sadalsuud]

2 hours ago, How to be wise said:

Today the world gave Russia the middle finger by voting to kick it out of the un human rights council. 

That's highly conscious. 

[Sadeg]

I can't understand why when something touches Russia, people lose their sanity and everyone spread hatred to their nation. No one cares about evidence of events, independent investigations. Everyone becomes blind and spreads hatred. Ukraine unexpectedly became an example of democracy and freedom, and it is far from that country. Somehow I expected people to have more questions about why things are going this way. 

[How to be wise]

14 hours ago, Sadalsuud said:

That's highly conscious. 

Obviously. If a country doesn’t respect human rights, it has no place in the council.

[vladorion]

5 hours ago, Sadeg said:

I can't understand why when something touches Russia, people lose their sanity and everyone spread hatred to their nation. No one cares about evidence of events, independent investigations. Everyone becomes blind and spreads hatred. Ukraine unexpectedly became an example of democracy and freedom, and it is far from that country. Somehow I expected people to have more questions about why things are going this way. 

That's just how the collective unconsciousness works.

Powerful people create narratives, people follow them.

[vladorion]

5 minutes ago, How to be wise said:

Obviously. If a country doesn’t respect human rights, it has no place in the council.

Then the US should be the first country to be removed from the council.

[T_i_m]

17 minutes ago, How to be wise said:

Obviously. If a country doesn’t respect human rights, it has no place in the council.

And how does it help? Lack of human rights in Russia is what led to this war in the first place.
But no one cared a few months ago for some reason. No one cared about torture, murder and rape in Russian prisons, about repressions and assassinations in politics etc. Why is that? Maybe because they didn't see any profit for themselves in caring and now the do?


 

 

Edited April 8, 2022 by T_i_m

[How to be wise]

4 hours ago, vladorion said:

Then the US should be the first country to be removed from the council.

No country respects human rights more than the United States.

[T_i_m]

@How to be wise  Oh yes, famous human right to bombs and shells with depleted uranium, for example. 

Edited April 9, 2022 by T_i_m

[SeaMonster]

It's not about Russia's security interests, unless you define that so broadly as to have it be meaningless.  

It's about Russian demographics -- Russia is dying, its population is expected to shrink in the coming decades (fertility below replacement and not a super-attractive immigrant destination compared to the West.)  The only solution is to reabsorb the population of former Soviet Republics (including the more fertile Central Asian ones, like Kazakhstan.)

Of course good old Russian incompetence and corruption have made this war a clusterfuck for them, and they've only accelerated their decline.  It's a freakin' humiliation.  Putin looks like a complete buffoon, lied to by his underlings and loathed by more and more of the world due to the typically Russian war brutality.  Quite a bit of their educated class will move to the West now.

But that's Russia for you, par for the course.

I see a lot of people trying super-hard to push the New! Global! Order! narrative, but Russia has really fucked itself with this misadventure.

 

[vladorion]

1 hour ago, How to be wise said:

No country respects human rights more than the United States.

Maybe that's why the US war machine has killed more people in the last few decades than any other country.

Maybe that's why they have a prison where people are detained without trial, treated inhumanely and tortured.

[vladorion]

 

[Ryan_047]

3 hours ago, SeaMonster said:

It's about Russian demographics -- Russia is dying, its population is expected to shrink in the coming decades (fertility below replacement and not a super-attractive immigrant destination compared to the West.)  The only solution is to reabsorb the population of former Soviet Republics (including the more fertile Central Asian ones, like Kazakhstan.)

I don't really see how this could be a solid reason for Putin to invade Ukraine. Using that logic every European country should annex parts of Africa, because of their low fertility rate and rate of immigration doesn't make up for the people they are losing. China is in the same position and you don't see them attacking anyone. Most countries in the Northern hemisphere have a negative fertility rate.  

Edited April 9, 2022 by Ryan_047

[pedro23]

6 hours ago, vladorion said:

 

Maan, sometimes I really question if you do this on purpose to attract attention. 

1. The site of the MOD of the R.F. published a press release saying that it was using Tochka U rockets during a military exercise. 

2. There were multiple spotting of Russian Tochka U in Belarus and Ukraine in March and April. 
Like here: 

 

Or here: 

Pay attention to the 11th second . You can clearly see them transport cases  for Tochka U. In case you want to say those are radar vehicles. 

 

3. The vast majority of the pro-russian telegram channels were promoting the news that the russian/"dpr"/"lpr" procedeed with an artillery strike  on

th train station.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

4. Never mind the fact that RIA Novosti published the news of the attack on Kramatorsk, blaming the Ukrainians, before the news even broke out, ffs, even using an app for scheduling future tweeter posts. 

5. Just remember MH 17. 

Man, I really try to understand your perspective, but so far I can only see russian propaganda. Again, you  spew  propaganda without even researching basic facts.

[Ryan_047]

6 hours ago, vladorion said:

 

Someone debunked this lie above, so I'm not going into that. But I can tell you that this guy is also denying the genocide in Ukraine:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8moZ7S4voe4

He has a very perverse way of taking things out of context. His whole argument in this video is: "Some Ukrainian military groups are committing war crimes, and so they must play 5D chess and kill their own civilians so that the West will help them." Not only that, but he doesn't provide sources and evidences for half of the things he's saying, but gives the impression of objectivity by reading short narrow paragraphs from some website that means a whole another thing if you actually read the whole article. 

Leo said Russian propaganda is no longer acceptable.

I urge the mods to take action and stop the dumb narrative of "Ukraine is killing their own civilians and blaming it on Russia." 

[pedro23]

7 hours ago, vladorion said:

 

Just fresh! So, russia does not have Tochka  U? Here's a video from 9th of May 2021 in Russia, of a Tochka U complex, proudly announced and proudly exhibited. 
Have fun) 

tochka U 9.05.mp4

[SeaMonster]

11 hours ago, Ryan_047 said:

I don't really see how this could be a solid reason for Putin to invade Ukraine. Using that logic every European country should annex parts of Africa, because of their low fertility rate and rate of immigration doesn't make up for the people they are losing. China is in the same position and you don't see them attacking anyone. Most countries in the Northern hemisphere have a negative fertility rate.  

The bigger European countries like France and Germany have had a massive influx of foreigners (North Africa/Middle East) over the last few decades, if you follow the news, and some of the smaller ones like Poland have not, but also they do not have pretensions of being a superpower like Russia or China so it's not as pressing an issue for them yet.  They don't have to make those strategic calls yet.  Russia does. (Why do you think the EU is harassing the smaller countries like Poland and Hungary to accept refugees? It ain't humanitarianism.  They have access to the same demographic data that we all do.  A shrinking EU reduces the power of the bureaucrats in Brussels.)

As far as China -- Hong Kong down, Taiwan next, if the West allows them. They are looking at what the world is doing on Russia.  Also, the pickings are simply not as easy, geographically or culturally (It's not like they can invade India, e.g.) So when you say "you don't see them attacking anyone" -- well, maybe the Russia debacle has put them off Taiwan, or maybe they will merely wait and make sure they have their ducks in order before they do it in a year or two.  But it's not as if they don't need to.  

Edited April 9, 2022 by SeaMonster

[Ryan_047]

@SeaMonster I see what you are saying, but China attacking Taiwan is merely a supposition for now. And if they do (which I personally think they will at the first sign of major weakness from the US) I highly doubt that they will attack just because of a declining demographic. It's way more complex than that. The same goes for Russia. If Putin really was concerned with babies, he could've forced the Duma to adopt policies in that sense, as China has done. But as far as I know, no major steps were taken in that direction. 

I mean, it's so counter intuitive (in a bad sense). Invading another country will cause those people to hate you and flee. That hatred will stay with them for decades to come, and they won't feel safe to have (too many) children, which is exactly (supposedly) why you are conquering them.  

5 minutes ago, SeaMonster said:

The bigger European countries like France and Germany have had a massive influx of foreigners (North Africa/Middle East) over the last few decades, if you follow the news

Well yeah, I know. But still doesn't make up for the deficit, as I've said in my previous comment. Not to mention that those people suffer from discrimination and mild racism, and they are not actually what Germany and France are mainly looking for, which are skilled workers in the service sector (IT, economics and the like). Also France has taken steps in the direction of becoming a superpower again with Macron. 

[SeaMonster]

31 minutes ago, Ryan_047 said:

I see what you are saying, but China attacking Taiwan is merely a supposition for now. And if they do (which I personally think they will at the first sign of major weakness from the US) I highly doubt that they will attack just because of a declining demographic. It's way more complex than that. The same goes for Russia. If Putin really was concerned with babies, he could've forced the Duma to adopt policies in that sense, as China has done. But as far as I know, no major steps were taken in that direction. 

Well, it's a supposition but an easy one to make, considering what China has done on Hong Kong and their stated policy on Taiwan.  You're not going out on a limb there.

Quote

If Putin really was concerned with babies,

But they HAVE adopted those policies to the extent they can afford to.  It worked for a year and then reverted back.  They are seeing that it's not working and there is panic in those capitals.

The truth is, once your population is relatively wealthy and educated, fertility drops below replacement and it's very hard to avoid a population death spiral without major immigration.  The only country that has been able to do that is Israel (perhaps a special situation because of a sharpened sense of do-or-die.)

What experience is showing is that it's a hell of a lot easier to get people to have less kids than more kids, once they get used to the less sacrificing lifestyle.  They get spoiled.

Quote

I mean, it's so counter intuitive (in a bad sense). Invading another country will cause those people to hate you and flee. That hatred will stay with them for decades to come, and they won't feel safe to have (too many) children, which is exactly (supposedly) why you are conquering them.  

You have to understand the desperation involved, and then it all makes sense.  What choices do they have? 

Russia and China's tragic flaw is an extreme sense of self-importance - of national greatness.  China is the "middle kingdom" between heaven and earth.  Russia is the empire of old, of Peter The Great and Soviet Union.  Their national psyche is ill-suited to acceptance of being some backwater.  So this puts them in a position of desperate and counterproductive moves.  

Now Russia is considerably more reckless than China, but the ultimate result is the same.  China cannot accept immigrants to the same degree as the West, for many reasons.  Sure, they can pick off some South Asian or North Korean brides for their men, but it's not close to the West. And their people are not responding to "have 3 kids if you want."  They are like "waaaaah too xpensive."

So what would you do? Now maybe they will simply not do anything for now, like I said.  They are a cautious people.  Maybe they think they can outcompete the West on technology and so they can avoid the worst consequences of a population decline. (Certainly Russia has no chance of doing that.)  But whatever the solution, this issue of fertility is very much a major driver of all strategic choices going forward - rest assured.

Edited April 9, 2022 by SeaMonster