Understanding Russia & Putin

[PurpleTree]

2 minutes ago, Knowledge Hoarder said:

@Fandango Ideally, Russia should cease to exist - along with every single authoritarian state left on this planet. And we should achieve that throught non-violent means, without the need for war.

I'm not saying USA should rule the world, not at all, there should be multiple major superpowers that counterbalance each other. I just want every single one of them to be democratic.

i don't even care if they're democratic, they should just give freedoms to their own people (freedom for women, freedom of speech, right to protest etc.) and not invade other countries 

3 minutes ago, Fandango said:

They will never win, that is the truth.

there is no truth but in this dream i'd rather we stop putin and put navalny in his place

[zurew]

@Knowledge Hoarder Do you have any ideas about how could China or North Korea become democratic or to what it takes to make them democratic? The reason why i mentioned those two especially, is because those are tightly related politically.

[Fandango]

We are all pro Ukraine and freedom and against what we think is evil until the first nuke hit Paris or London

[Bobby_2021]

16 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

@hello1234 I have watched a lot of Putin interviews and speeches very carefully observing him. I have not see any signs of psychopathy.

Normal people are traumatized after doing spy work and cannot lead functional lives due to the high stress nature of the work.

Psychopaths are generally chosen for spy work in the first place. Psychopaths have a fake charm that won't make them so easy to spot.

He may not be a full blown psychopath, but he gas psychopathic traits. Many experts have claimed this. 

This is NOT a demonisation. 

[Leo Gura]

We have difficultly sustaining a democracy in America. 1/3rd the country believes Biden wasn't democratically elected.

The 2024 US election could be stolen by the Republicans.

Expecting democracy in Russia or China right now is a pipe dream.

[zurew]

 

1 minute ago, Knowledge Hoarder said:

And for that to happen, the power and influence of goverment will have to be severely weakened by some outside factor/force.

I agree with that.

[Fandango]

5 minutes ago, Bobby_2021 said:

Normal people are traumatized after doing spy work and cannot lead functional lives due to the high stress nature of the work.

Psychopaths are generally chosen for spy work in the first place. Psychopaths have a fake charm that won't make them so easy to spot.

He may not be a full blown psychopath, but he gas psychopathic traits. Many experts have claimed this. 

This is NOT a demonisation. 

it is simple to me: when you just don´t understand why someone is doing something, you think he is crazy. That is an easy way to explain why to you

Edited March 7, 2022 by Fandango

[PurpleTree]

3 minutes ago, Fandango said:

We are all pro Ukraine and freedom and against what we think is evil until the first nuke hit Paris or London

i don't think putin is evil, imo he's just paranoid and jealous that the ukraine wants closer ties to the west than him

now there's some truth to putins fears of the west and nato but certainly he won't stop it, he's just creating enemies in the ukraine for decades and decades imo he also really can't win this conflict it's terrible for everybody except the weapons manufacturer and some politicians

[Leo Gura]

Chris Hedges offers a non-mainstream perspective which I think is reasonable and balanced:

 

 

[Fandango]

You can´t force the development of Russia, you need to wait until it comes from within, the people of Russia, Putin dies of natural causes, etc. You Americans haven´t learnt a thing from all your wars

[Ryan_047]

3 minutes ago, Knowledge Hoarder said:

Frankly, I do not know. All I know is that the change is gonna take a long time, and it's probably going to take form of some sort of revolution/bloody uprising. And for that to happen, the power and influence of goverment will have to be severely weakened by some outside factor/force.

I see North Korea and Russia becoming democratic (probably in 100+ years) before China. Do you know about China's social credit system? Combine that with a very strong military, high (and increasing) standards of living and the most advanced propaganda machine to ever exist and you get an effective high functioning dictatorship. I think China will remain communist (and a super power) for a very long time to come, as attempts to democracy in the 2000s have been digitally and physically crushed.  China is so, so interesting (don't take that as me admiring communism).   

[PurpleTree]

4 minutes ago, Fandango said:

You can´t force the development of Russia, you need to wait until it comes from within, the people of Russia, Putin dies of natural causes, etc. You Americans haven´t learnt a thing from all your wars

Knowledge Hoarder isn't American, and i think Putin even accelerates the change from within with his clamping down on freedoms and media.

Many Russians already tasted freedoms, its hard to put the genie back into the bottle

[zurew]

1 minute ago, Ryan_047 said:

I think China will remain communist (and a super power) for a very long time to come,

Yeah, i agree with you, they seem to be ultra focused to be as effective and efficient as they possibly can, and this optimisation seems to work for them especially on an economic level. Of course, there are a lot of tradeoffs from the individual rights  and possibilities perspective.

[Sucuk Ekmek]

4 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

We have difficultly sustaining a democracy in America. 1/3rd the country believes Biden wasn't democratically elected.

The 2024 US election could be stolen by the Republicans.

 

Conspiracy theories

There's a chance some states may declare independence. I am not from USA but I don't see the future bright for America.

[PurpleTree]

Just now, Sucuk Ekmek said:

Conspiracy theories

There's a chance some states may declare independence. I am not from USA but I don't see the future bright for America.

you're from Turkey? Will there be a Kurdistan? i suppose so

[zurew]

9 minutes ago, Knowledge Hoarder said:

Even if they outlast Russia and North Korea, I don't think the future looks very bright for them.

Do you have anything specifically, why their future is not looking very bright? For me right now, the only thing that comes to my mind is maybe because Chinese people become more conscious and won't let the dictatorship to continue forward, however i don't know how much time it will take (I assume it won't happen any time soon).

[Sucuk Ekmek]

1 minute ago, PurpleTree said:

you're from Turkey? Will there be a Kurdistan? i suppose so

 Yes and good question. Which Kurds? The Kurds in here are citizens of republic of Turkey they care about working and doing business let them be themselves and they won't bother with nation state ideas. There could be a Kurdistan it may share a place inside of  Turkey's current borders but it's a very hard task. I am not sure if Kurds wants the challenge or even want to move there. (The ones in Turkey) 

Or with a deep state false flag operation Kurds may forced to have an state too, this is horrible but... Anyways there are many possibilities and Kurds mostly seem neutral under normal conditions. At least the ones in Turkey.

  I can't predict the damage done after the collapse of USD which will happen eventually this year. So it would be very hard to manage this place let alone Kurdistan. It's very hard to say something this is a very complex matter we will see what zeitgeist shows us

 

 

 

 

[Fandango]

1 hour ago, PurpleTree said:

Knowledge Hoarder isn't American, and i think Putin even accelerates the change from within with his clamping down on freedoms and media.

Many Russians already tasted freedoms, its hard to put the genie back into the bottle

The West should try to influence the people of Russia against Putin and pro democracy instead of arming Ukranians to extend their suffering

Putin knows that influencing people is a very effective way (Facebook in the USA elections, etc)

[KingCrimson]

I want to thank Leo for recommending the Olver Stone interview with Putin and would like to recommend it as well. 2 hours in and I already feel like I understand Putin and the way he thinks a lot better. There are a lot of fascinating insights about how geopolitics works and it really makes you appreciate how complex all of these situations are, and that nobody really ever has total control over what is happening at any given moment. There are dynamic systems at play that one has to masterfully balance against each other. Putin mentions that his work is in many ways quite similar to that of a creative professional, and I fully believe that. 

I had seen interviews with Putin before, I have studied the history of Europe and read quite a few books on the subject. I'm a bit of a history nerd in general. The image that I'd had of Putin before the invasion of Ukraine was that of a very intelligent, educated, capable, responsible, stable, and strong man who was  genuinely trying to act in the best interest of Russia. The answers he gives are thoughtful, rational and nuanced. From the way I perceived him, I would have never even entertained the thought that he might be a lunatic psychopath had that image not been painted in the media. The interviews have made me appreciate even more what a difficult job Putin has, how much responsibility he carries, and I do believe that most people do not appreciate this enough. Most people would crumble immediately if they felt the weight that he carries on his shoulders. This is true for any statesman, but in the case of a vast nation like Russia definitely even more so.

It's possible that he has gone off the rails, but I find that highly unlikely. It is certainly an explanation, but there are far more obvious, rational explanations that have to do with geopolitics which I find way more plausible. It has all been talked about in this thread before: The expansion of NATO and the perceived threat by Russia, broken agreements, openly hostile communication (Biden calling Putin a "killer", Hilary Clinton comparing him to Hitler are just the tip of the iceberg), etc. I believe the most plausible explanation is that since NATO refused to promise to Russia that Ukraine would not join NATO, and that this would never change by means of diplomoacy, he took matters into his own hands, acted tough and did what he thought was necessary. I do not agree with his decision. Like everybody else, I am obviously against war and violence of any kind. But I believe it is easy enough to understand Putin's rationale for what he's doing, if you are actually interested in understanding, not moralizing.

I do believe he might have made the mistake of underestimating Ukrainian resistance. This is bad news for him. I would like to believe that he really does not want to incorporate Ukraine into Russia as some people believe, but that the conditions which Russia has presented are genuine. The acknowledgement of independence of Donbas und Luhansk regions as well as a neutral Ukraine. They will probably install a pro-Russian leader in Ukraine as well.

However, at the moment it is far from certain how things are going to unfold in the long run. Sadly, everything seems to point towards a new arms race. Germany for example has now committed to spending over 100 billion dollars a year on their military already, which would make their military the third most expensive in the world behind the US (~800 billion) and China (~250 billion). NATO has been pushing for Germany to spend 2% of their GDP on their military for years, but Germany didn't want to. This has now changed. I do not agree with this decision at all. It is a punch in the face of all the regular working poor and elderly people in Germany who had to hear from politicians for years that sadly, the state didn't have enough money to improve their conditions, yet they readily conjure up 100 billion to spend on more weapons. This money would be far better spent on education, health and social systems, infrastructure etc.

I also find it noteworthy that for many countries in Europe that had previously wanted to stay neutral and not join NATO, public opinion has swayed in favour of joining NATO. Even in Austria there has been a discussion about abandoning neutrality, although it did not last long when politicans saw that voters did not agree. Austrians are very proud and protective of their neutrality and the majority of the population does not believe there is a genuine threat coming from Russia that would justify joining NATO. However, in countries like Sweden and Finland, there has been a massive upsurge in approval for a possible NATO membership.

I could be wrong, but this situation reminds me of when a terrible crime happens, and suddenly, there is a rise in approval for the death penalty in the morally outraged public, which returns to normal levels after some time has passed. It is understandable that Sweden and Finland would want to consider joining NATO under these circumstances, but I think it's a bad idea. Expansion of NATO has led us to the ever-increasing escalation we find ourselves in now. Having even more countries join NATO and them spending even more money on their military will further destabilize the balance of power. Already, NATO are outspending Russia 20 to 1 on military expenses. The US alone spend more money on their military than every other nation on the planet combined. This is an undeniable reality that has to be factored into one's considerations on this tricky subject at all times. NATO claiming it is not a threat is all well and good, but how believable is that when they have by far the most technologically advanced and best-maintained armed forces in the world? Of course they are a massive threat from Russia's perspective.

Edited March 7, 2022 by KingCrimson

[Sucuk Ekmek]

32 minutes ago, Knowledge Hoarder said:

US will end up destroying itself, I think. Because, no country can really challenge it without nuclear weapons - shielded by 2 oceans, neighbouring 2 weak countries. Probably the best strategic position for a country to have - maybe in the entire history.

Nevertheless, I think there's something major that's going to happen, which will divide the country into half, or even multiple parts. It could be conservative vs. liberal conflict really escalating, but it could be something else. Once it happens, US will forever cease to be a major superpower.

Note: these are just my thoughts, I'm no expert on US politics. But, it makes sense to me, since everything in this reality is temporary - everything happens in phases. Since US cannot be destroyed by a force or an idea from the outside, it this has to be destroyed from within.

I agree with you about selfdestruction. There will be hyperinflation, FED is just unstoppable  and it will print money to the moon. Hyperinflation will be the end of states era. I don't think there would be a such division because once money is out lights are out aswell it's just survival nobody would care for old stuff. They need a planned coup backed by both parties elites(I don't know if such exist) because there is no way of saving current economic system(paper money) or dollars status. Anyways enough of this I don't want to offend people really