Understanding Russia & Putin

[tsuki]

@Scholar Nuclear weapons don't have much diplomatic leverage. Once you put them on the table, you've ceased all communications and if you back down from using them, you will never be taken seriously.

[Fleetinglife]

16 minutes ago, Preety_India said:

real

Real is what is relative to the person who thinks it is real to them currently, and that can be due to various ego self-deceptive reasons to protect themselves, psychological or physical, for one reason or another, justifiable or not from a wider reality and world perspective and standpoint, while at the same time not being conscious that it is detached from the actual currents of where the world is going in the wider outside their own egoic, personal version. 

Sounds like you are in some sort of psychological defensive mechanism denial about this with this simple "uh uh you are" retort, but that's okay my intent was not belittle or make fun the merits of your perspective but just point out it is detached and shielded from wider reality currents going on currently and the dangers when of you get personally, psychologically shocked by major events when you get majorily dumbfounded by them actually happening and having an impact on your life, survival and wellbeing. 

Edited March 6, 2022 by Fleetinglife

[Preety_India]

Just now, Fleetinglife said:

Real is what is relative to the person who thinks it is real to them currently, and that can be due to various ego self-deceptive reasons to protect their selves, psychological or physical, for one reason or another, justifiable or not from a wider reality and world perspective and standpoint, while at the same time not being conscious that it is detached from the actual currents of where the world is going in the wider outside their own egoic, personal version. 

Sounds like you are in denial about this with this simple "uh uh you are" retort, but that's okay my intent was not belittle or make fun the merits of your perspective but just point out it is detached and shielded from wider reality currents going on currently and the dangers when of you get personally, psychologically shocked by major events when you get majorily dumbfounded by them actually happening and having an impact on your life, survival and wellbeing. 

Not interested in arguing you. Move on. 

 

[Scholar]

Just now, tsuki said:

@Scholar Nuclear weapons don't have much diplomatic leverage. Once you put them on the table, you've ceased all communications and if you back down from using them, you will never be taken seriously.

You are missing the point. Nobody will start a war with a nation with nuclear weapons, because it will at best assure mutual destruction. Therefore, there is no military security risk to a nation that has a sufficent capability in that regard, which Russia does have.

[Leo Gura]

27 minutes ago, Vrubel said:

Regardless, "neo-nazi" is dehumanizing as shit. 

Well, we call MAGA folk Neo-Nazis here sometimes.

Quote

And the regions that Putin is brutally invading are the chill parts where Russians and Ukrainians lived peacefully side by side. Ukraine's nationalist heartland is in the west. But even they are just regular stage blue nationalists just like Russians, Poles, Lithuanians etc.

I generally agree with you there.

The problem with Putin's justification is that pretty much every country has crazy hard right nationalists in it if you go looking for them. That does not justify an overthrown of their government. Hell, even Russia has hard right nationalists. Does that give NATO valid reason to depose Putin? Obviously not. Trump was supported by Neo-Nazis. Does that mean Russia can now invade the US? This logic is silly.

23 minutes ago, Scholar said:

Wait, what do you think is Destiny's critique of Mearsheimer then?

Nobody is an actual security risk to Russia because Russia has nuclear weapons. Once you do, your national security in terms of war is secured. Russia has issues maintaining it's economic security, and that's in my view the best lense you can understand this conflict from, in the context of certain biases that Putin holds.

We don't live in the 20th century anymore.

Yes, that is Destiny's basic critique. He refuses to acknowledge that NATO is legit threat to Russia.

I think this is too much of a Western perspective though. It's easy to not see NATO as a threat when you are deep within NATO and benefit from it.

Economic security and military security are deeply linked.

The threat to Russia is not merely a direct invasion of Moscow via Ukraine. The threat is more about who gets to control the world order and sets its rules in his own favor. Russia wants a significant role in the world order.

You can't just boil down geo-political positioning to nukes. If that were true, why does the US have 100s of military bases around the world? Why does the US care about the Middle East or Taiwan?

[tsuki]

@Scholar Threats are wide and varied. NATO will never start a war with Russia, but it can sanction it to death, or mess with it's neighboring countries, exert political pressure, etc. Even though Russia has nuclear weapons, if it has no diplomatic leverage, it is good as dead. And it has been ignored and sanctioned for the better part of the last decade.

You can destroy Russia just by fucking with it's economy enough. And that's a threat nuclear weapons won't help with.

Edited March 6, 2022 by tsuki

[PurpleTree]

17 minutes ago, tsuki said:

I wonder why Biden is so hell-bent on humiliating Putin. Is it a reaction against Trump?

how is he hell-bent on humiliating Putin?

[tsuki]

1 minute ago, PurpleTree said:

how is he hell-bent on humiliating Putin?

That was indicated by the dialogue brought up in the material Leo has posted.

[Fleetinglife]

20 minutes ago, Preety_India said:

Not interested in arguing you. Move on. 

Neither was I, my intent was just, out of concern, to point out the psychological dangers for one's wellbeing in the future, being throughly shocked or unprepared of something happening that they didn't want to believe or adequately psychological prepare for happening, of holding onto such belief contradicting or outright denying wider accepted views held by most of the rest of the world on that issue and it's most possible outcome in the future currently. 

Sorry in advance if the came of as personal attack or character criticism or projection in advance, that wasn't my intent from the beginning, maybe mistake in the few of the inadequate choosen words or phrases to describe my intent and aim I apologise as well for that, but just to point out some of the risks and personal adverse effects when holding an unquestioned, idiosyncratically personally derived view of some future self and possible life changing or impacting issues in the current reality in the world operating on some sort of population  majoritarain consensus on things and stuff that impact them and concern them in the future. 

Edited March 6, 2022 by Fleetinglife

[Scholar]

1 minute ago, Leo Gura said:

Yes, that is Destiny's basic critique. He refuses to acknowledge that NATO is legit threat to Russia.

I think this is too much of a Western perspective though. It's easy to not see NATO as a threat when you are deep within NATO and benefit from it.

Economic security and military security are deeply linked.

The threat to Russia is not merely a direct invasion of Moscow via Ukraine. The threat is more about who gets to control the world order and sets its rules in his own favor. Russia wants a significant role in the world order.

I agree Russia wants a significant role in the world order, but that's a pipedream, it will not happen. Russia basically wants to go back to the 20th century, however, the world has moved on.

Right now what we are seeing is an Empire struggling to let go of power, and the world is reacting accordingly. I don't think this conflict could have been avoided, or even that attempting to avoid it would have resulted in better outcomes. Russia will be meaningless in the future, and Putin cannot accept that.

Russia will fall like every other empire until they understand that they are so insignificant, nobody will even care about them as a threat anymore. It will be just another France or Germany, or UK. A similar thing might happen to the US, atlhough I think the US is better positioned in terms of geopolitics to atleast somewhat cling to power. Either way, what we are seeing is not some response to bad actions of NATO, imo it's simply an empire not wanting to let go of control, because it will cost it.

And by doing so, as history loves to repeat itself, the empire is giving itself the finishing blow, instead of walking off the world stage with dignity. How this could have realistically have been avoided is if Putin had died of COVID. Though, the lessons we will learn will probably serve to stabilize the future and allow for harmony to prosper even more, as we have a good reminder of what happens when a Nation decides to delude itself that it can simply brute force it's interests into reality.

[PurpleTree]

9 minutes ago, Scholar said:

I agree Russia wants a significant role in the world order, but that's a pipedream, it will not happen. Russia basically wants to go back to the 20th century, however, the world has moved on.

 

putin, his people and the very nationalistic russians want that 

many russians want more freedoms, right to protest etc. imo

and if that means a more "westernised" russia for more freedoms, then so be it imo

Edited March 6, 2022 by PurpleTree

[Preety_India]

There is no gain for Russia in this war. Only loss. Economic loss. Russia better pack up its bags soon and prematurely end the war

This war was a strategy to put Russia into economic and global trouble by providing false military intelligence. 

And Putin gave into this horrible bait. 

The whole strategy behind this bait was to make Putin and Russia look bad to the world. 

This was a preemptive chess move. 

And NATO and someone is behind this. 

The key players in this chess game are US, China, Russia and someone along with NATO. 

 

Edited March 6, 2022 by Preety_India

[vladorion]

46 minutes ago, Vrubel said:

Regardless, "neo-nazi" is dehumanizing as shit. 

And the regions that Putin is brutally invading are the chill parts where Russians and Ukrainians lived peacefully side by side. Ukraine's nationalist heartland is in the west. But even they are just regular stage blue nationalists just like Russians, Poles, Lithuanians etc.

Why do you think calling neo-nazis people who praise Stepan Bandera, use nazi symbols, shout "kill the Russian" at their meeting etc. is dehumanizing? 

 

 

 

[Leo Gura]

33 minutes ago, Scholar said:

I agree Russia wants a significant role in the world order, but that's a pipedream, it will not happen

Don't be so sure about that. Russia and China are building an alliance to rival the West. Of course it won't be as powerful as the West, but it can still survive for a long time.

[Vrubel]

12 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

Well, we call MAGA folk Neo-Nazis here sometimes.

Yeah, but that's mostly typical stage green hyperbolism. It's of course also very dehumanizing and wrong. But not the same as what Putin is doing. 

 

20 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

I generally agree with you there.

The problem with Putin's justification is that pretty much every country has crazy hard right nationalists in it if you go looking for them. That does not justify an overthrown of their government. Hell, even Russia has hard right nationalists. Does that give NATO valid reason to depose Putin? Obviously not. Trump was supported by Neo-Nazis. Does that mean Russia invade the US? This logic is silly.

Well, if you tell a lie often enough it becomes the truth. I think many Russians genuinely believe that Ukraine is full of Neo-nazi's or "banderevtsi" supporting Hitler and hating everything Russian.
Of course, Ukraine does have a history of nazi collaboration. And the nationalist-collaborator Stepan Bandera is still celebrated as a hero mostly in the west of the country. But even that history is complicated and nuanced. And again, it justifies nothing. Most of the country was pretty chill and not particularly "tribal" or extreme right-wing.

[Preety_India]

2 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

Don't be so sure about that. Russia and China are building an alliance to rival the West. Of course it won't be as powerful as the West, but it can still survive for a long time.

China is not with Russia, forget China. That's a ruse. 

Edited March 6, 2022 by Preety_India

[Leo Gura]

3 minutes ago, Vrubel said:

Most of the country was pretty chill and not particularly "tribal" or extreme right-wing.

I agree

Ironically Putin's invasion will create a whole bunch of hard right Ukrainian nationalists and extremists. Putin created more nationalists in a week than were created since the fall of the USSR.

[Preety_India]

4 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

I agree

Ironically Putin's invasion will create a whole bunch of hard right Ukrainian nationalists and extremists. Putin created more nationalists in a week than were created since the fall of the USSR.

Ukraine was anyways not a part of NATO. So it was thrown under the bus. Part of the ruse. 

 

Edited March 6, 2022 by Preety_India

[Loba]

I thought China condemned what Russia was doing claiming that they viewed Taiwan as sovereign? .. and would not be doing the same sorts of things?

Where was it mentioned that China/Russia are building an alliance?  I missed that.

Edited March 6, 2022 by Loba

[Bow24]

35 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

Russia and China are building an alliance to rival the West. Of course it won't be as powerful as the West, but it can still survive for a long time.

 

@Leo Gura

I think this opinion may be grounded in your pro-western biases.

The American Empire has been declining for decades already, and at an alarming pace the last couple of years: Trumpism and the complete divide of the country, almost 1 million corona deaths, decline of life expectancy for 5 years in a row, 40% of all US$ ever created have been created in the last 2 years, the horrendous wars in Afghanistan, Libya, Iraq etc.

In comparison, China has been growing it's economy, technological capabilities and international influence at an incredible speed over the last 2 decades. China currently creates more new engineers every year than the US has in total. The MIT ringed the alarm that China has already overtaken the US in advanced AI and Big Data research fields.

From my perspective, China has already overtaken the US in most relevant fields - it will just take 5-10 years until you will feel it inside of the Empire.

The new multi-polar world order has arrived already.