By treating Russia as a pariah, we painted ourselves into a corner

[tsuki]

1 hour ago, Ryan_047 said:

Then prove you actually know more about the subject other than Russian propaganda, cause I haven't asked anything personal about you, I'm interested in your knowledge regarding this subject and its derivates.

Yes, I'm going to spend a lot of time explaining my subject knowledge to you, because you demonstrated your ability to listen in a non-judgmental way.

</sarcasm>

I have not studied the subject in any depth whatsoever. I'm only here because my wife is freaking out that we will have WW3 and she calms down when she sees that I'm interested in the subject. I would rather endure your petty squabbles than her wild imagination, so humor me some more with your projections please. Like I told you before, I am not being serious and you refuse to acknowledge my words.

1 hour ago, Ryan_047 said:

I could go on and make so more exaggerated comparisons but you get the idea. I'm also not attacking you, and I apologize if you bad in any way. I'm talking against propaganda, misinformation and bad interpretations of past events.  

Your rhetoric suggests that you are concerned with my views on various subjects and that you want the best for me, but that is not the case. What you are concerned with is that I am saying things that are unpopular/hurtful or otherwise offensive. I don't think that what Putin is doing is right, nor do I think that he has any right to do it. What I am saying is that he did it, and I want to know why.

1 hour ago, Ryan_047 said:

Nazi Germany invades Poland in 1939 - people here: "Look, nobody in the West are saying how the Nazis had a good casus belli for the war, the Poles attacked a German radio station for no reason! They also promised Polish independence in WW1, and they got it afterwards!" 

Nazi Germany invades Benelux and France in 1940 - people here: "Yeah, but France always was a dick to Germany/old German states and you just don't want them to go directly against the Maginot line, that would cause too many casualties. They had to go through Belgium so that they could avoid too many casualties! Look, Goebles points out all of the abuses that Germany endured because of the Versailles Treaty, there has to be some truth in what the Propaganda Minister says." 

If you want to feel better (which is a very valid pursuit in this situation), then maybe start a thread where you can express your emotions on the subject and find like-minded people to join you?

Edited March 2, 2022 by tsuki

[John Paul]

7 hours ago, voxun said:

Wtf is this ?

LOL 

idk but i love it <3

[Ryan_047]

@tsuki You still have to concretely address my points instead of pointing your finger and say that "I'm projecting" and subtly suggest that I'm trying to spread an agenda. 

17 minutes ago, tsuki said:

I am not being serious and you refuse to acknowledge my words.

You were quite serious and thoughtful in your responses that validated your worldview to other users, yet when you lost an argument with me, you started trolling by saying this instead of engaging in details and prove that I'm wrong or how I'm myopic. But hey, if this is indeed your way of having fun in the world, who am I to judge. 

20 minutes ago, tsuki said:

If you want to feel better (which is a very valid pursuit in this situation), then maybe start a thread where you can express your emotions on the subject and find like-minded people to join you?

If this is what I truly wanted I'd go to Reddit on r/ukraine and farm karma points. Yet, I'm here. 

You can continue being passive aggressive or engage in detail with me (which observe, you didn't actually address any of my points by hiding under the umbrella of "I'm just joking bro, look at this dumbass who is taking things so seriously lol"). If this is not your wish (and by the looks of it, it's not), I'll no longer engage with you. But all I've said in a nutshell is that many users on this forum fall into the trap of regurgitating Putin's propaganda and calling it the true Russian point of view, you included. It's the same sin as regurgitating Western propaganda and taking it as absolute truth and justice. The pendulum was just swung from one extreme to the other. Today's political spectrum's extremes are not so "extreme" as we think (aka Nazi or UK colonial era), and thus things are not so easy to judge. 

[BlueOak]

6 hours ago, Gesundheit2 said:

By the way, the sanctions are useless in practice. The only purpose they may serve is to hurt the Russian people economically, which in turn could make them angry so they would rally against their government, or at least the war. But I don't see that happening. In practice, the Russian government will continue as if nothing has happened, but the Russian people will suffer the cost.

Sanctions have several uses. Its orange limiting red in this case. I would assume that was the point of the businessman and soldier picture above for anyone wondering. My answer to the picture is that it depends on the country.

The Russian economy is weakened and over time very weakened. Technology that is there now won't be replaced because exports are blocked. Phones, computers, planes, weaponry, anything high tech is gone. This is oranges way of thinking, expanding the point Russia is now in a costly long term war with a weakened economy, which it hasn't planned to be in. Its put aside reserves but this will be 10 years of draining fuel, supplies, tanks, men, guns, food, ammo etc.

What happens to a weakened russian economy fighting an expensive occupation war. It slowly goes further downhill. The military weakens etc. That's the full orange thinking and plan.

Red thinking in Russia could be. I see Putin is old, he's showing weakness, he's costing me money, so I'll make my move. Which doesn't mean the red mind doing that will be better, it probably won't. *Maybe we can hope it'll be a different type of person taking power eventually.

It hurts the Russian people, yes and I feel for them, but the Russian people are the country, eventually what they are is what leads them. It can't be otherwise without the massive instability, that you see in some countries and will see in Ukraine if Russia Occupy it. Russia based leadership will not reflect the Ukraine population, and so there will be instability unless Russia adapts. This is just a fact of how countries and people imposing their will over others works.

So green, we have sympathy for the people and what they are going through, the horrific nature of war. What we don't have are green governments almost anywhere, let alone many Yellow speakers. Some of the European governments are green but not a lot.

That's what I see, if I am missing anything please someone expand for me. Thanks.

*What I can see i am missing is, 44 million new citizens, will change Russia by being part of it. If under occupation or a puppet. It can't be otherwise without constant war, instability and fighting. That's a big chunk of Russia's population being added.

Edited March 2, 2022 by BlueOak

[tsuki]

14 minutes ago, Ryan_047 said:

But all I've said in a nutshell is that many users on this forum fall into the trap of regurgitating Putin's propaganda and calling it the true Russian point of view, you included.

So, your point hinges on the distinction between "true Russian POV" vs "false Russian POV". How do you make this distinction?

• Is the "true POV" the one that causes the decisions to be made? In that case, Putin's (or Lukashenko's) POV is the true Russian POV.
• Or maybe the "true POV" is the one that most of the Russians share (which may be in a disagreement with Putin's)?

Are we trying to understand why Russia (as in: Putin) made the call to invade Ukraine, or are we trying to assess the "Russian spirit" that is the people's will? What value does the people's will bring to this discussion if it was clearly ignored?

Or maybe you are referring to Putin's ulterior motives, to which we have no access? Is there a point to guessing them if we assume that the information that is publicly available is propaganda and is aimed to throw us off?

Edited March 2, 2022 by tsuki

[BlueOak]

@tsuki
It depends on the intent. It becomes propoganda when I say something to you on mass everywhere, with the intent of telling you a story, a reflection, a duality or something I want to be true for everyone and everything. Which I have realised I had a trait of doing.

It doesn't work when the citizens are different or completely opposed to what is being said. It only works if they have something inside of them that accepts, or agrees or reflects what's being said. So what the quote you have taken is also saying to me is, the people repeating the state message, have that message in them somewhere or can accept it.

Its difficult because its so far apart from the western perspective, or polarity, the two sides are so far apart and that's why we have conflict and misunderstanding. Maybe I'd be best trying to show where they are similiar rather than different.

*We also have the conflict because - I want X to be true for everyone and everything. Is in both.

Edited March 2, 2022 by BlueOak

[voxun]

Yes that was what I was referring to but since I didn't exactly remember what it was and don't want to pull out information out of my ass I mentioned that I could be wrong.

Anyway another question I have is who the fuck appointed Ursula von der Leyen as the leader of EU.

I live in the EU and I have no idea how these people get elected. The concept of democraticly elected leaders is a blurry one.

 

1 hour ago, Andyforreal said:

NATO broke serval agreements, Putin was explaining it few years ago on an interview in USA, also there are documents about it, Russia wanted to join NATO in the 90s there's a declassified document that u can find about it also, but I think what broke Putin was the new Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy he's leaning more towards EU while the last presidents were leaning towards Russia

That's why I personally don't pick any political sides, everyone lies everyone

 

And for those people here im against war and against killing innocent people, whatever I wrote doesn't justify war

 

 

[Gesundheit2]

40 minutes ago, BlueOak said:

The Russian economy is weakened and over time very weakened. Technology that is there now won't be replaced because exports are blocked. Phones, computers, planes, weaponry, anything high tech is gone.

1. Exports cannot be completely blocked. It's impossible to do that. The west is not the whole world. There's China and the rest of the world.
2. You can boycott the biggest natural gas producer for a certain period of time. But Europe needs the gas, and they will break eventually without Russia.
3. There are definitely alternative pathways for exportation. The Russians can still export "illegally" at a lower price. Basically a black market can be created, and is probably already in place even before the war has begun. Plenty of corrupt European leaders to seduce.
4. Importation won't be affected very much. America and Europe are not the only sources of technology or imports in general.
5. Again, there already exist "illegal" and "shadow" pathways that can deliver high tech gadgets if you are willing to pay, which Russia can.
6. All of the above is especially true because America is losing respect and influence globally.

Quote

This is oranges way of thinking, expanding the point Russia is now in a costly long term war with a weakened economy, which it hasn't planned to be in. Its put aside reserves but this will be 10 years of draining fuel, supplies, tanks, men, guns, food, ammo etc.

That's the western narrative. But I live in a sanctioned country, and we get the latest IPhones immediately after they're released every year. Capitalism doesn't really care about sanctions.

Quote

What happens to a weakened russian economy fighting an expensive occupation war. It slowly goes further downhill. The military weakens etc. That's the full orange thinking and plan.

I don't think so. But we will see.

Edited March 2, 2022 by Gesundheit2

[tsuki]

7 minutes ago, BlueOak said:

@tsuki
It depends on the intent. It becomes propoganda when I say something to you on mass everywhere, with the intent of telling you a story, a reflection, a duality or something I want to be true for everyone and everything. Which I have realised I had a trait of doing.

It doesn't work when the citizens are different or completely opposed to what is being said. It only works if they have something inside of them that accepts, or agrees or reflects what's being said. So what the quote you have taken is also saying to me is, the people repeating the state message, have that message in them somewhere or can accept it.

Its difficult because its so far apart from the western perspective, or polarity, the two sides are so far apart and that's why we have conflict and misunderstanding. Maybe I'd be best trying to show where they are similiar rather than different.

@BlueOak But maybe this is a distinction between Eastern and Western cultures in general?

• Western cultures promote individualism and personal expression, while at scale they become collectives that accept plurality of perspectives.
• Eastern cultures, on the other hand, promote collectivism on the individual level - becoming a "good member of society", while at the collective level they assume one identity.

Maybe, what we negatively judge as "propaganda" in the West, is what Eastern cultures use as a regular means of communication, and thus built individual identity at the collective level? Maybe we judge it negatively because we've been raised in a culture that promotes individual freedom as a highest virtue and it offends us because of our conditioning?

 

If you look at it this way, why is it wrong for a person to accept a social narrative, if it resonates with their heart? Some narratives, such as in Russia, don't sit well with the society, while some do. If we distance ourselves from our upbringing and forget that individual freedom is the highest virtue, then how would we tell which side is "correct"?

[Andyforreal]

3 minutes ago, voxun said:

Yes that was what I was referring to but since I didn't exactly remember what it was and don't want to pull out information out of my ass I mentioned that I could be wrong.

Anyway another question I have is who the fuck appointed Ursula von der Leyen as the leader of EU.

I live in the EU and I have no idea how these people get elected. The concept of democraticly elected leaders is a blurry one.

 

 

A blurry one indeed, that's what im saying, a political game is being played here and innocent people are always paying for it, there's no good side just the lesser evil im a certain situation 

[BlueOak]

1 minute ago, tsuki said:

@BlueOak But maybe this is a distinction between Eastern and Western cultures in general?

• Western cultures promote individualism and personal expression, while at scale they become collectives that accept plurality of perspectives.
• Eastern cultures, on the other hand, promote collectivism on the individual level - becoming a "good member of society", while at the collective level they assume one identity.

Maybe, what we negatively judge as "propaganda" in the West, is what Eastern cultures use as a regular means of communication, and thus built individual identity at the collective level? Maybe we judge it negatively because we've been raised in a culture that promotes individual freedom as a highest virtue and it offends us because of our conditioning?

 

Yes thank you. I really wish we had that indepth look at the way Russia was governed and its society existed, from a yellow thinker somewhere for reference, we'd learn so much.

1 minute ago, tsuki said:

If you look at it this way, why is it wrong for a person to accept a social narrative, if it resonates with their heart? Some narratives, such as in Russia, don't sit well with the society, while some do. If we distance ourselves from our upbringing and forget that individual freedom is the highest virtue, then how would we tell which side is "correct"?

Yes it isn't. Its my bias. The biggest obstacle I am aware of now, is the cloak around Russia, one poster called it the Myth, its hurt itself and us with it.

[BlueOak]

14 minutes ago, Gesundheit2 said:

1. Exports cannot be completely blocked. It's impossible to do that. The west is not the whole world. There's China and the rest of the world.
2. You can boycott the biggest natural gas producer for a certain period of time. But Europe needs the gas, and they will break eventually without Russia.
3. There are definitely alternative pathways for exportation. The Russians can still export "illegally" at a lower price. Basically a black market can be created, and is probably already in place even before the war has begun. Plenty of corrupt European leaders.
4. Importation won't be affected very much. America and Europe are not the only sources of technology.
5. Again, there already exist "illegal" and "shadow" pathways that can deliver high tech gadgets if you are willing to pay, which Russia can.
6. All of the above is especially true because America is losing respect and influence globally.

That's the western narrative. But I live in a sanctioned country, and we get the latest IPhones immediately after they're released every year. Capitalism doesn't really care about sanctions.

I don't think so. But we will see.

1, I understand of course but it doesn't work like that in practice for complex devices. High tech devices are made by many countries, you get one piece here, one piece here and one pierce here.

2, You'll be surprised. i would be astonished if Germany didn't go to nuclear power for example. There is a lot of anger and political will to come off Russian gas. Its not going to be overnight but Russia has lost there significantly. All western countries have acknowledged it is a strategic mistake to buy from Russia. That's a huge developed market to lose. This alone is the biggest hit to Russia.

3, Yes. 

4. True but even if the first point above wasn't true, that's a ten year process of redesign and many other technical challenges. For example they will need to completely change their software, their hardware how it all connects together. Systems are fragile at the best of times, even when everyone knows what they are doing (which they never do) and all the parts are working. You'll have to take that from a software engineer's experience.

5. Yep. If they are willing to pay a large cost for such a huge country. I don't think you are really factoring in scale here but yes. The end effect is the same, a weakened economy.

6, That was true until a week ago. Now its Russia that is the one losing respect and influence globally. The aggressor always does. Europe for example just got a huge boost in unity against Russia and that isn't going to end the day Russian forces stop killing people, or even if they left tomorrow. The refugee's will be here, the rebuilding will need to be done.

We should also add that Russian cash reserves have been limited because their central bank is. Again there will be work arounds but again it'll be a cost.

Edited March 2, 2022 by BlueOak

[BlueOak]

The summary of this topic is, for me.

Everyone painted themselves into a corner here. 

Until we are willing to look at all aspects of it, we will repeat the mistakes.

Edited March 2, 2022 by BlueOak

[Gesundheit2]

@BlueOak For me the bottom-line is that overall, not much will change for Russia except that life will become more expensive there (mostly for the middle and lower classes). How much more expensive? I don't know. I think that's pretty much most that there is to the sanctions.

[Gesundheit2]

@BlueOak Turns out the sanctions aren't even targeting oil and gas exports.

[BlueOak]

24 minutes ago, Gesundheit2 said:

@BlueOak Turns out the sanctions aren't even targeting oil and gas exports.

Depends on the country. In the UK for example Russian ships can no longer dock, so no oil is being imported over the ocean. Every country is different.
Let's take Germany, which is the biggest market for Russian Gas in Europe I believe. Initially they have only limited certain banks, and are beginning to source gas from elsewhere. Canada voted to start to export more and the US did too, the climate policies in those countries have taken a backseat to the energy lobby. American Oil and Gas companies are doing a large amount of PR, and loving this, as people are for once on their side rather than renewables.

Germany have spoken and started the long process of coming off Russian Gas and oil, like I say there is political and strategic will there and longer term this will be the biggest loss for Russia if that persists. It would be untrue to say all Europe just cut Russia off yesterday, it will be a long slow process, if only so the public in Europe doesn't drop its support for that process by the costs going up too high.

The longer the Russian war in Ukraine persists, the longer that political will is reinforced. Which is one reason Russia wanted a quick war.

Edited March 2, 2022 by BlueOak

[BlueOak]

@tsuki

I am concious I am posting a lot here but I wanted to make a personal thanks to you Tsuki for persisting here and everyone else's perspective here. By all your actions you've helped heal a wound, ignorance and trauma that has existed for 40 years. Obviously expressed in many different ways not just politics. Accelerating my growth a lot just by these conversations. So deeply thank you and thank you all for being here. 

All the best.

Edited March 2, 2022 by BlueOak

[tsuki]

@BlueOak You are welcome, never would have guessed that this thread could cause such gratitude. I'm happy for you ?

Edited March 2, 2022 by tsuki

[Blackhawk]

3 hours ago, somegirl said:

@Blackhawk Yes everyone is wrong, you are only right. 

I know I'm right.

[zazen]