By treating Russia as a pariah, we painted ourselves into a corner

[tsuki]

Consider the following:

It is not possible, nor desirable, to have a global military alliance that would ensure the world peace.

The moment a power exists, another power appears to counter it and to strive for supremacy. 

The only reason we consider an alliance good is because it exists to serve our interests at the expense of parties that we're not allied with.

[tsuki]

https://barackobama.medium.com/my-statement-on-ukraine-dc18ef76ad88

Edited March 1, 2022 by tsuki

[Vrubel]

6 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

Just because you don't think Ukraine joining NATO is a big problem doesn't mean it is that way from Russia's POV. It's not a problem for you because you live in the West. But it is a big problem for Putin. It's such a big problem that he was willing to start a war over it. Think about that. Maybe you're not appreciating the depth of the problem.

Ukraine has a strong will to join Europe. I don't see them compromising on that point even if they get crushed. 

Also, Ukrainians will perceive this point as a pivotal moment in their history. Their very nation is forming. If Putin Claimed that Ukraine was not a "real" nation. It sure as hell is now!

This war and maybe the insurgency-after will be remembered in a similar way as the Fench revolution. Also, I can't help but feel that the Ukrainians are now being very heroic. This makes me appreciate war, not in a warmongering way. But in how war can be starkly imposed upon a people who never asked for it. And also that war can be genuinely heroic. 

By seeing such a pivotal war in my lifetime, I have actually gained more insight and appreciation into why for example Americans are/used to be so obsessed with the American Revolution and Russians with their hard-won victory in ww2. It's not just mere propaganda, it got something very real to it, something that plays on our consciousness with an undeniable power.

I won't ever underestimate how history shapes a people group.

Why the Poles the are way they are: history
Why the Russians are the way they are: history
Why the Germans are the way they are: history
Why the Afro-Americans are the way they are: history

etc. etc. etc.

Edited March 1, 2022 by Vrubel

[hello1234]

7 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

The West basically rules the world and Putin does not think this is fair. From Putin's POV the West is the world bully. Russia is the underdog.

Putin doesn’t think it’s fair because he wants to rule the world. Russia is not an “underdog” from his POV, Russia is a big powerful nation who “will show them all how tough RUSSIA is”! I am getting tired of your “poor putin” narrative. You never lived through stage red, that’s why you are giving those poor kitten excuses to putin. No, your dad being a con artist didn’t teach you to understand stage red properly - everyone in the soviet unit was a con artist - you have to experience it on a cultural level, a kid who grew up in US will have a massive blind spot towards red that can’t be fixed with theories. 

Putin is stage red. Do you agree that putin is stage red? What does stage red want? Power and dominance. Yet it doesn’t want to earn that power and dominance fairly - by working hard, developing itself, becoming the best at something - it’s entitled to it, it thinks it deserves it as a status quo. 

If he is sane and not delusional, what exactly is stopping him from integrating with the first world countries a little bit? Accept the reality of russia as a third world country (second world in some cities) and roll his sleeves to change something? Make some steps to end the corruptions, fix its legal system.

Do you not consider what russia is doing now with Ukraine a terrorist act? Holding Ukraine hostage, torturing it, to try and get its way? 
 

 

Edited March 1, 2022 by hello1234

[vizual]

@tsuki  Why does Obama still calls himself President? Can ex-presidents still call themselves President?

[BlueOak]

5 hours ago, tsuki said:

Consider the following:

It is not possible, nor desirable, to have a global military alliance that would ensure the world peace.

The moment a power exists, another power appears to counter it and to strive for supremacy. 

The only reason we consider an alliance good is because it exists to serve our interests at the expense of parties that we're not allied with.

Consider the following.

If everyone were in the military alliance there would be 'world peace' or as close to it as we could aim for from an alliance.
If all the major powers were in the alliance there would be no major wars or proxy wars. That's the happy fantasy land, but at one point Russia got closer to Nato and almost joined them, If China, India, Russia, America, and Europe were allied, the world would be much safer.

Why you think all countries acting to individual interest will promote more peace than war, especially when most of the major powers have nuclear arsenals, the capacity and willingness to fight proxy wars in other countries, or rapid reaction forces that can deploy very quickly, and air or naval power that can reach across the globe, is reasoning that doesn't make any sense to me. For most of our existance we have had wars with our neighbors, what Nato has done for us, is stop that and brought some stability to the world.

Sure its for us, but 'us' are most of the powerful economies in the world, the ones with the capacity to do the most damage to each other.

Edited March 1, 2022 by BlueOak

[Marv]

Lots of people in this thread seem to lack the necessary geopolitical nuance. The control of the western Pontic Steppe is absolutely uncompromisable for a nationally sovereign Russia. Putin and NATO both know this. 

If you drive a dog into a corner, do not be surprised when it is going to bite. Except, you won't be surprised if it was your plan all along to get it to bite you, so that you can then shoot it into the head with the people blessing.

Edited March 1, 2022 by Marv

[BlueOak]

What I didn't see and was thankfully reminded of by @Preety_India is just how individualist Russia acts as a country, while asking for collectivism from its citizens. While the west does the opposite.

[BlueOak]

@Marv

Just saw your post after I posted. Everyone lacks the necessary geopolitical nuance. You are dealing with large collective will that lacks geopolitical understanding and its important to be realistic expecting responses to not be nuanced. In life from the population usually they are not, they are emotional, they are using the information they can glean from the television or internet.

Also I wouldn't start second guessing motivations. I mean I could spin that a Russian adviser gave Putin bad advice so he could then replace him or weaken him. Right now that would be just as plausible as a conspiracy theory because the invasion is so terribly executed, and the expectations of Russia buying their own propoganda of them being liberators that they planned for this rather than actually going to war. I mean what seems obvious is they planned for their propoganda rather than the reality.

Edited March 1, 2022 by BlueOak
because my grammar was terrible

[tsuki]

21 minutes ago, BlueOak said:

If everyone were in the military alliance there would be 'world peace' or as close to it as we could aim for from an alliance.
If all the major powers were in the alliance there would be no major wars or proxy wars. That's the happy fantasy land, but at one point Russia got closer to Nato and almost joined them, If China, India, Russia, America, and Europe were allied, the world would be much safer.

This is a pipe dream.

Imagine if Russia joined NATO. China would freak the fuck out.

21 minutes ago, BlueOak said:

Why you think all countries acting to individual interest will promote more peace than war, especially when most of the major powers have nuclear arsenals, the capacity and willingness to fight proxy wars in other countries, or rapid reaction forces that can deploy very quickly, and air or naval power that can reach across the globe, is reasoning that doesn't make any sense to me.

I never said that "all countries acting to individual interest will promote more peace than war". This is obviously not the case.

What I am saying is that the world cannot be a centralized entity that acts in unison. Borders between countries will keep existing and border disputes will keep occurring when individual countries are threatened. If anything, I think that existence of superpowers makes the system unbalanced, because or rivalry between them. This is what we're seeing now: one superpower (the US) gathered its allies and cornered Russia into acting unreasonably. Push any entity into thinking in terms of survival and you will see claws and fangs.

If any of you think that Putin is stupid, or having a stroke over a nuclear armageddon button, think again.

21 minutes ago, BlueOak said:

For most of our existance we have had wars with our neighbors, what Nato has done for us, is stop that and brought some stability to the world.

Sure its for us, but 'us' are most of the powerful economies in the world, the ones with the capacity to do the most damage to each other.

What NATO has done for us, is to buy us some peace time by impoverishing Russia off of its imperialist tendencies.

But why is Russia trying to build a world empire? Because the US has succeeded in it. And so, the wheel of fortune turns...

Edited March 1, 2022 by tsuki

[hello1234]

16 minutes ago, Marv said:

If you drive a dog into a corner, do not be surprised when it is going to bite. Except, you won't be surprised if it was your plan all along to get it to bite you, so that you can then shoot it into the head with the people blessing.

Leo? Is that you? Did you make a new account to make this comment? 

Edited March 1, 2022 by hello1234

[hello1234]

8 minutes ago, tsuki said:

Imagine if Russia joined NATO. China would freak the fuck out.

And what is the common denominator between Russia and China? Hm ?

Edited March 1, 2022 by hello1234

[tsuki]

Just now, hello1234 said:

And what is the common denominator between Russia and China? Hm ?

They are both threated as pariahs by NATO countries.

[Marv]

3 minutes ago, hello1234 said:

Leo? Is that you? Did you make a new account to make this comment? 

I will take this as a compliment.

[hello1234]

15 minutes ago, Marv said:

I will take this as a compliment.

I meant you’re parroting what he’s saying word by word - get your own brain.

16 minutes ago, tsuki said:

They are both threated as pariahs by NATO countries.

Communism (you can take the person out of the village but you can’t take the village out of the person).. led by the “tsar” like figure who decides what’s what.. a country of obedient puppets.. 

Edited March 1, 2022 by hello1234

[Marv]

2 minutes ago, hello1234 said:

I meant you’re parroting what he’s saying word by word - get your own brain.

I did not even read what he wrote.

[hello1234]

4 minutes ago, Marv said:

I did not even read what he wrote.

I don’t believe it. You made your very first post in this threat. 

Edited March 1, 2022 by hello1234

[BlueOak]

4 minutes ago, tsuki said:

This is a pipe dream.

Imagine if Russia joined NATO. China would freak the fuck out.

Now sure, because the path we are on is the opposite. Even RT were putting this idea forward as late as three weeks ago. The video link is still up in youtube search but they have deleted it. There were quite a few moves in that direction a few years ago and its sad it didn't happen. Sure China would freak out and then? 
 

8 minutes ago, tsuki said:

 

I never said that "all countries acting to individual interest will promote more peace than war". This is obviously not the case.

 

What I am saying is that the world cannot be a centralized entity that acts in unison. Borders between countries will keep existing and border disputes will keep occurring when individual countries are threatened. If anything, I think that existence of superpowers makes the system unbalanced, because or rivalry between them. This is what we're seeing now: one superpower (the US) gathered its allies and cornered Russia into acting unreasonably. Push any entity into thinking in terms of survival and you will see claws and fangs.

If any of you think that Putin is stupid, or having a stroke over a nuclear armageddon button, think again.

What NATO has done for us, is to buy us some peace time by impoverishing Russia off of its imperialist tendencies.

But why is Russia trying to build a world empire? Because the US has succeeded in it. And so, the wheel of fortune turns...

You might not have said it but you are advocating for it. Border disputes can lead to larger wars. People don't just do border disputes either, if this last 4 decades of my have taught me anything, countries have imperialist ambitions, also ambitions for resource gain and to expand spheres of influence. That's not just the big names you think of either, regional powers do this. You can't remove superpowers or regional powers even if you dislike them. Its a fact of population, technology, resources, culture, history and geography.

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/population-by-country/

Just taking one factor population: India, China, America, Indonesia, Pakistan, Brazil have the potential to move toward being the next superpowers. Russia is in decline relative to first three or four here in terms of their population growth certainly which is part of the reason we have this action being taken now as a land grab for power, control of the gas supply and 40 million more people.

When you are talking about a global alliance you have to reflect globally not about Russia or America. The fact is, if Russia had joined Nato we wouldn't be here. If Russia was in the G8 still we wouldn't be here. That's not just Russia's doing, relationship are a two way thing or in this case as you raise China, and I other superpowers, it a multi-way relationship.

 

[Marv]

Just now, hello1234 said:

I don’t believe it.

Then don't.

Why did I even decide to join a discussion on this forum, I did this for 5 minutes now and I am already infuriated. This is like twitter, Jesus Christ.

And you people claim to be enlightened?

[hello1234]

2 minutes ago, Marv said:

Then don't.

I don’t.