WW3? How bad is the Ukrain situation?

[Value]

Hey I am genuinely worried for the first time in years. Should we spend some of out daily work preparing for a potential world war or what do you guys think?

[BlueOak]

Wars beget wars. They push people into a fear mindset collectively, and into thinking about survival. It has some potential to spill into other former soviet states and you can see some of the baltic leaders expressing this fear. Blame gets let out, and people justify actions based on trauma.

In that mindset yes its possible. Its still far more likely to be limited in scope. Unless Nato itself is attacked. Some potential flashpoints now are, the desire for other nations now to join Nato to protect them from this fate, the increased weapons that will now be sent to Eastern Europe, and some of the surrounding regions seeing border wars, as can happen in wartime. 

And of course Taiwan, which is coming very soon, and I want you to think in terms of the regional powers there, as that's where flashpoints are possible.

[vizual]

A new Cold War is more likely. Where the west will cut off trading streams with Russia, and start strengthening Ukraine. I highly doubt Putin would be that stupid to downright attack NATO allies, and if he would, I hope the new generation of Russian leaders will be smart and courageous enough to stop that from happening.

Edited February 23, 2022 by vizual

[axiom]

Russia has recognised Donetsk and Luhansk (in the Donbas region), and it certainly looks ominous, but the mainstream media hasn't really put it into context. Donbas has effectively been under Russian control since the Maidan revolution in 2014 - (Yanukovych, Ukraine's pro-Russian, anti-Nato, anti-EU leader, was deposed in what Russia considered to be an illegal coup. Obviously, Russia would have much preferred Yanukovych to have remained in power as it has long feared eastwards expansion of Nato).

So, the region was more or less part of Russia already. Officially recognising it as such isn't an unexpected turn of events. Naturally it looks concerning to the US and to Europe, and it gives the news media something else to hype - now that they can no longer promote realistic panic about Covid - but it doesn't make a full-blown invasion of Ukraine suddenly logical by any stretch, nor easy.

Logistically, recognising Donbas actually makes a subsequent full-blown invasion almost impossible, since the element of surprise is now gone. Arguably, if Putin were seriously considering such an action he wouldn't have made such a rookie mistake. Ethically it would be a very hard sell for him as well.

Putin likely senses weakness in the EU - which would not be misplaced - and probably wants to test the waters re their commitment to an alliance with the US. 

Edited February 23, 2022 by axiom

[BlueOak]

21 minutes ago, axiom said:

Russia has recognised Donetsk and Luhansk (in the Donbas region), and it certainly looks ominous, but the mainstream media hasn't really put it into context. Donbas has effectively been under Russian control since the Maidan revolution in 2014 - (Yanukovych, Ukraine's pro-Russian, anti-Nato, anti-EU leader, was deposed in what Russia considered to be an illegal coup. Obviously, Russia would have much preferred Yanukovych to have remained in power as it has long feared eastwards expansion of Nato).

So, the region was more or less part of Russia already. Officially recognising it as such isn't an unexpected turn of events. Naturally it looks concerning to the US and to Europe, and it gives the news media something else to hype, but it doesn't make a full-blown invasion of Ukraine suddenly logical - by any stretch - nor easy.

Logistically, recognising Donbas actually makes a subsequent full-blown invasion almost impossible, since the element of surprise is now gone. Arguably, if Putin were seriously considering such an action he wouldn't have made such a rookie mistake. Ethically it would be a very hard sell for him as well.

Putin likely senses weakness in the EU - which would not be misplaced - and probably wants to test the waters re their commitment to an alliance with the US. 

I am going to quote a post I saw on this video a second ago:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x3CNZwHW3OA
 

Quote

1. Russia can now openly build bases in the region
2. Russia can now openly blame Ukrain for Russian losses and nolonger hide behind the separatist. This is crucial, as it basically means that Ukrainians risk starting an all out war if they fire back, because they could hit a Russian solider.
3. The entire region is now under pressure and not just the lands held by separatists. Meaning Ukrain will lose 20% of its territory if worst comes. That is because Russia has already promised to respect the founding documents of the two republics(as reported by the BBC). Both of which lay claim to the entirety of Lohansk and Donetskt as well as stating that they have to fight to secure these lands.

Please note these are not my words, but they raise a few points I had not thought of. 1 and 2 specifically, which will lead to a level of escalation, or negotiation to end the build up.

I would add importantly 4, That russia might be trying to push the territory owned as the poster suggests, or instead the threat of it as a new negotiating position.

Edited February 23, 2022 by BlueOak

[Yarco]

Get prepared, but don't go crazy. Don't go converting all your money to gold and silver or ammo.

At the same time, I think everyone should have enough food and supplies stocked up so they don't have to leave their property for months if it ever gets that dangerous, which most people would find pretty extreme. It's not that expensive to stock up on nonperishables like pasta, rice, beans that you'll eat anyway.

10 lbs rice, 10 lbs flour + some yeast, 5 lbs peanut butter, 10 lbs pasta, pasta sauce in cans, canned soup and other foods, a couple bottles of honey or bags of sugar. A couple bags of oats. 5 or 10 lbs of beans/lentils. A couple bottles of olive oil. That's enough food for 1 person for 100-ish days. You are min/maxing survival at this point so throw your grain free organic whatever diet out the window. 

Inflation is just going to continue this year. So if you can afford to stock up now, anything you buy will likely be 20% cheaper now than if you wait until the end of this year.

If you live in a country that borders Russia like Norway, I'd have a plan to leave your home if it gets to that.

In North America, I think the worst we'll see is really high gas prices. In which case you might want to buy a bicycle and stop being dependent on your car for short trips.

I'm not worried, if this plays out naturally I don't think it will lead to WW3. But if the US or Nato wants war they can certainly trigger it, through aggression, false flags, etc. During dangerous times, even unfortunate misunderstandings can go south really quickly. But at this point it's just a local conflict to me. There isn't really any reason for the rest of the world to get involved.

Edited February 23, 2022 by Yarco

[Ananta]

1 hour ago, Yarco said:

In North America, I think the worst we'll see is really high gas prices.

Probably true, but my husband is paranoid and has been buying 10lb bulk food, as well as freeze dried meat. He's spending hundreds of dollars, but the food he's buying lasts for many years years. Better to be prepared I guess.

[Blackhawk]

Russia will probably soon further invade Ukraine, many Ukrainians and Russians will suffer and die, but it's unlikely that it will start WW3.

Edited February 23, 2022 by Blackhawk

[Fleetinglife]

Now is probably a good time to pose the question up in the open bluntly and to ask why is it still acceptable for Russia to have so many nukes in stash still given the ability that they have no longer the ability to be a somewhat stabilising force in the East like the Soviet Union and that they no longer have the world economy and economic importance and relevance for the whole world to back and justify having that much nukes in stash and the ability to destabilise the whole world economy by using the threat of nukes as coercion force to achieve it's forceful aggressive, unprompted regional dominance and hegemonic goals instead of being a negotiating and stabilising factor in them? 

Why aren't [most of them up to 90-95%] just handed to China via some Agreement, where the Chinese in turn then have to buy some Russian government stocks, bonds, service a bit of their debt or invest in their companies and are adequatetly stimulated and compensated for that by some third power also [basically they then don't have to invest in as much as they have and probably build from almost scrap this underground nuclear silo operation in Inner Mongolia and in Central China or wherever else it is being built they have currently going on] actor in that negotiation agreement like the US, which [China] is much more intertwined, important and relevant for the global economy and thus has much more interests to attempt to act to be a somewhat stabilising force in it so it too won't suffer economically for performing intentionally, deliberately, sidelining agreements, negotiations for peaceful resolutions with some possible concessions, like the Russian government seems here that it did, some overly destabilising act for the whole world economy so it can alone profit in some way militarily or politically from it or directly coerce or threaten whole interconnected and interdependent European markets and economies with some openly coercive demands, ultimatums and measures for its own sole benefit, goals. 

Edited February 23, 2022 by Fleetinglife