On the probable beginning of WW3

[JuliusCaesar]

This is the first post I've made in the Society section of the forum, as I tend to stay out of politics. But the situation in Ukraine has taken up so much of my mental energy as of late, that I feel I should discuss it with someone. I'll be describing how I see the immediate future unfold from the perspective of the Russian Federation and President Putin. So before you go interjecting and imposing the western view of things, just keep that in mind. In the future, I may provide my understanding of the western perspective. Also, keep in mind that I'm making predictions here as well(not just wishful thinking from Russia's perspective, but concretely what I see happening in the world in the future).

 

The Current Situation:

Russia's generals and Government officials have experienced anxiety over the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO, as that would mean US forces stationed right on Russia's border. This would mean that the US military would likely have missiles deployed that are capable of reaching Moscow in under 10 minutes. Think about the situation if the same thing was occurring but to the US. If Russia had made a deal with Canada or Mexico to build Russian bases near the US border. How would the Pentagon respond to such an obvious threat? To deliver a bottom-line understanding of Russia's perspective here. They've deployed a substantial force to the Ukrainian border to prepare for western aggression. And if in the end this results in Russia annexing Ukraine then so be it. Russia's leadership has the foresight to realize that could easily escalate into a world war. But what's the alternative? Risk suffering the end of Russia as a sovereign nation at the hands of the west? Surely invoking global conflict is a better outcome.

 

On Vladimir Putin:

 

On the 16th of February(this upcoming Wednesday), President Putin is going to make some provocative statements relative to the past and Russia's authority. Putin will make clear in no uncertain terms that he wants his people to be united against Western aggression. This will likely provoke western media outlets(CNN, MSNBC, even FOX news) to ramp up their already present effort to beat the drums of war. However, at this point, we aren't likely to see a full-blown invasion of Ukraine by Russia(or potentially any invasion) on this day.

 

Fast forward to around the middle of March, the Russian President will begin to commit more faithfully to his actions. Heretofore he genuinely hoped for a potential peaceful solution to the problem. But at this point have likely lost all trust in NATO(and specifically the US War Machine) to restrain themselves. And as such will be looking more seriously to consider ordering a full boots on ground invasion of Ukraine. This will represent a horrible moral conflict within Putin being resolved in a somewhat negative manner. Because he very strongly wants to avoid conflict with NATO and especially the US as the possible obvious consequences of it are bearing down on his conscience. But he thinks he has no choice because in his perception the west is forcing his hand. At this point, Russia will likely be cut off from SWIFT if that hasn't already occurred, and perhaps many other global chains as the US levies more serious sanctions against the Russian Federation.

 

Around the middle of June, Russia would appear to be in a favorable financial situation. Because Putin gets lucky in the way of securing wealth and prosperity for Russia even despite Western efforts to arrest Russia's economy. Or maybe it's somehow only the President himself who benefits financially. Either way, Putin appears to be financially lucky here.

 

Fast forward to around to the 25th of October, Putin steps into a new position of power never seen before in his life. Almost certainly a scenario that arises due to Russia successfully expanding to include Ukraine, and possibly even other past satellite countries of the long-dead Soviet Union.

 

To bottom line it for you, by the end of August this year Putin will be in a position of power he's never before known. To look at him in a nonlinear fashion. He wants to retake the lost nations of the Soviet Union, but he wants to do it causing the least amount of human suffering and collateral damage possible. Relative to his goal to become more powerful, he succeeds greatly.

 

On Russia:

 

Currently, the Russian Federation is experiencing the realization that it was naive to think it could make peace with its partners in the west. So as a country, she's preparing herself to fight for her interests.

 

Mid-April, Russia is going to be making huge moves in a military capacity against her enemies. The initiation of a serious invasion into Ukraine is likely to occur here.

 

Mid May, I see what appears to be a global catastrophe. It would appear that Russia's invaded Ukraine, exerted power, and become dramatically more influential. Foreign countries begin to consider or even enact military intervention because of Russia's increased use of violence. This is probably where WWIII will be kicking off.

 

Towards the end of July, Russia will be taking on a new identity. Likely related to Russia having expanded its borders and influence.

 

Around the end of October, Russia will be walking back some of its actions. Perhaps not surrendering any new territories, but certainly decelerating their conquest and taking a more conservative approach to things.

 

The Bottom Line:

 

On February 16th, I expect Putin to make strong threatening statements relative to the situation in Ukraine. Ides of March, Putin will be getting clear on what exactly he wants to do with Ukraine, and will likely make promises of that nature as well. Middle of April, we're likely to see an actual invasion of Ukraine. Forcing Russia into an alliance with China. Because as it stands, the US would likely win a war with Russia(well, if you can say there would be any winners in such a scenario). But with China and Russia united their combined forces will be more sufficient to oppose the US Military. Middle of May, the situation looks incredibly bad in a sense, and chaotic for the world. End of May, Russia will clearly define the extent to which she'll expand her authority. During the end of October Putin takes on a new identity and position(not necessarily an official change from the Russian President, just that it becomes clear he's in a very different position than before). Also during the end of October, Russia walks back some of what they've done and enters into negotiations. Though not necessarily surrendering any territory in the process. In 2024, Russia and Putin will be in a positive period of strength as a world power. And the events I'm seeing transpire now would seem to lead up to that.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 15, 2022 by JuliusCaesar
I spelled Probable as Probably

[Preety_India]

WW3 is never possible because it will most likely be nuclear. That alone will cause countries to back off. 

I mostly speculate cold wars between pairs of countries. 

 

[JuliusCaesar]

8 minutes ago, Preety_India said:

WW3 is never possible because it will most likely be nuclear. That alone will cause countries to back off. 

I mostly speculate cold wars between pairs of countries. 

 

In the past this has been true, let's hope it holds true going into the future.

[Ima Freeman]

Russia/China - Nato are already at war with each other. It is a informational, economic and cyberwar.

Maybe even biological concerning the mysterious origins of COVID. But that is just my wild speculation.
 

 

[happyhappy]

nicely curtailed informative post !

but I don't think we can expect a massive WW3 like that of WW2. humanity has a significant amount of stage green currently and WAR is not on their cards...never. the greens inside these countries themselves will fight for the war to cease even if  a war breaks out. I do believe that nobody will  try to take their nuclear toys out!  if they Do, their Downfall from within and without is already determined!

[itachi uchiha]

@Knowledge Hoarder  r u from a country near russia. because u look like a russian

 

even though i support russia , russia is no saint. they commited war crimes. but because ussr fall , usa got the license to do anything as no one is there to put a check on usa s actions. i wish some country became a superpower and accept the people usa is targetting and put a check on usa war crimes

[PurpleTree]

i don't think it will happen

these people have too much to "lose"

11 hours ago, JuliusCaesar said:

Think about the situation if the same thing was occurring but to the US. If Russia had made a deal with Canada or Mexico to build Russian bases near the US border. How would the Pentagon respond to such an obvious threat?

Also this is a bad example imo because Canada or Mexico don't want Russian bases. The Ukraine clearly wants to be in NATO. If you said Venezuela or Cuba, well maybe.

And there are already NATO troops very close to ST. Petersburg even without the Ukraine joining.

[itachi uchiha]

53 minutes ago, Knowledge Hoarder said:

 

It'd have to be a democratic, well developed country though, with high standards of living and basic human rights. Superpowers that are currently capable of rivaling US (Russia and China only, basically), are not even close to that.

 

china is a night mare if they become a superpower.

54 minutes ago, Knowledge Hoarder said:

Right next to Ukraine?

 

if russia invade ukrain, is your country in big threat.

[kray]

1 hour ago, Knowledge Hoarder said:

Probably not, because we are part of NATO, so that would be an extremely stupid move for Russia. We will however, have to accept tens of thousands of Ukrainean immigrants.

Completely unrelated, but that won't be a problem for other parts of Europe and the west, since they are white and european immigrants, I don't see any far right outcry happening because of "refugees". 

 

[PurpleTree]

2 minutes ago, kray said:

Completely unrelated, but that won't be a problem for other parts of Europe and the west, since they are white and european immigrants, I don't see any far right outcry happening because of "refugees". 

 

there was an "outcry" in the uk because of many polish etc. immigrants and whatever

 

[Sucuk Ekmek]

I think WW3 is already happening in peoples mind. Great quote from Churchill:

'' The empires of the future are the empires of the mind''

[JuliusCaesar]

13 hours ago, Knowledge Hoarder said:

That's a typical example of Russian propaganda, but think about a bit more. How does that make any sense? NATO forces are already stationed Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland, which also isn't very far from Moscow, rockets would get there fairly fast. So, why didn't they have a problem Estonia joining NATO, and deploying forces there, but suddenly Ukraine is a problem?

It's because Ukraine has always been important part of ZSSR for certain reasons, and it's still important now, otherwise Putin wouldn't have made so much effort in trying to retreive it back. That's the real Russian POV. "NATO aggression" excuse is just their bullshit propaganda. Think about it, NATO has less forces IN THE ENTIRE EUROPE, than Russia has currently ammased on Ukraine borders. The only aggressor here is Russia.

It sounds like you didn't read the first part of my post. Either that or you didn't care to take it into account. Of course, Ukraine doesn't appear to be a threat to Russia from our perspective. You have to keep in mind that prevarication works best when first you lie to yourself. Putin really believes the things he says, even the things that seem outlandish to you. Also keep in mind, that Russia's generals likely aren't comfortable with the current situation already. You add Ukraine into the picture of US military intervention and it gets even less comfortable for them. So you can't say there isn't some shred of truth to their argument, even if it is propaganda intended to enable a potential Russian annexation of Ukraine.

 

13 hours ago, Knowledge Hoarder said:

The sooner Russia attacks, the better for them. The more they wait, the more time they're giving Ukrainean forces to prepare, which is not what they want.

21 hours ago, JuliusCaesar said:

Around the middle of June, Russia would appear to be in a favorable financial situation. Because Putin gets lucky in the way of securing wealth and prosperity for Russia even despite Western efforts to arrest Russia's economy. Or maybe it's somehow only the President himself who benefits financially. Either way, Putin appears to be financially lucky here.

Russia will become even poorer.

21 hours ago, JuliusCaesar said:

Fast forward to around to the 25th of October, Putin steps into a new position of power never seen before in his life. Almost certainly a scenario that arises due to Russia successfully expanding to include Ukraine, and possibly even other past satellite countries of the long-dead Soviet Union.

Russia will likely not be able to even occupy entire Ukraine, only the eastern part. People won't just bend the knee to Russian aggression, there will be a strong anti-Russia sentiment, which will severely slow down Russian advance. War will be drawn out, bloody and brutal. Ukraine will basically be a worse version of Afghanistan.

As for other former satelite states, that is completely out of question. Once Russia attack one, entire NATO declares war. And Russia would get 100% beaten by NATO in a conventional warfare (excluding nuclear weapons). If you think otherwise, you are either brainwashed, or completely insane. Putin knows he'd stand no chance, thus he's only aggressive towards Ukraine.

That, all of that remains to be seen.

 

12 hours ago, Ima Freeman said:

Russia/China - Nato are already at war with each other. It is a informational, economic and cyberwar.

That's an excellent point about the cyber-warfare dynamic. I totally left that out of my original post, but it will definitely play a role, perhaps a major role.

12 hours ago, happyhappy said:

nicely curtailed informative post !

Thanks, man.

 

12 hours ago, happyhappy said:

but I don't think we can expect a massive WW3 like that of WW2. humanity has a significant amount of stage green currently and WAR is not on their cards...never. the greens inside these countries themselves will fight for the war to cease even if  a war breaks out.

You're assuming that the people run their government. They do not, defense contractors and foreign special interests as well as other aspects of the military-industrial complex control the military(that's at least the case in the US). So what the masses of people at stages Orange-Green want is massively irrelevant.

 

10 hours ago, itachi uchiha said:

even though i support russia , russia is no saint. they commited war crimes. but because ussr fall , usa got the license to do anything as no one is there to put a check on usa s actions. i wish some country became a superpower and accept the people usa is targetting and put a check on usa war crimes

Yeah like in the past when NATO deployed missiles on the USSR's border and the Soviets responded with the Cuban Missile deployment. The US viewed the Soviets as the aggressors even though they were just trying to even the odds. Or you could have mentioned the fact that US went into Iraq, totally destabilized the country creating a hotbed of Islamic extremist terrorism(as a reaction to America invading). All under the lie that there was proof of WMDs in Iraq. And when it was shown to be bunk, all the US had to do was say well the intelligence failed us oh well. Never mind the atrocities we committed over there. I could go on, but there are many instances like this of the US totally ignoring and sometimes even violating international law just so that we could police the world, and bring big profits to defense contractors.

 

9 hours ago, Knowledge Hoarder said:

Which is just that, assumption. There's no guarantee.

Well, it's certain that Russia will partner with another world power, it's true that I assume that power is China. There are possible alternatives.

 

9 hours ago, Knowledge Hoarder said:

In fact, it's likely that in the case of world wide conflict

Well, that's something we're all assuming is that there's likely to be a global conflict. A good point made by Preety India was that WWIII would likely be impossible because it'd be a nuclear war and nobody wants to push that button as they know the disastrous consequences it'd bring to them.

 

9 hours ago, Knowledge Hoarder said:

Who do you think would China rather have as a trading partner, US or Russia?

Not to mention the fact that China has territorial claims to parts of Russia. So if they were some kind of alliance between China and Russia it'd be temporary at best.

 

@Knowledge Hoarder And where you said "Russia will become even poorer." I didn't say specifically that Russia would benefit, I said the country may benefit financially in some way because Putin himself does around this time. It seems I confused you by saying "Russia would appear to be in a favorable financial position" as you missed the part in the end where I say it might just be the President's personal finances I'm describing.

 

 

 

[JuliusCaesar]

I've just got done watching Russell Brand's video on this topic. And I must say I find his perspective refreshing, in that he's someone who clearly knows little to nothing about the situation. But yet, he's somehow managed to achieve something similar to an objective point of view on the subject. Now granted, he obviously isn't aware of what's going to occur on the same level as me, but holding him to ordinary human standards he's pretty impressive.

 

[vizual]

Bring on that new world war, the world is getting kinda boring. 

[itachi uchiha]

@JuliusCaesar so who was more opressive in their prime .usa or ussr

 

I think usa killed more people and destroyed more civilization than ussr

 

The thing is russia do not have enough media to do their propoganda.all they have is RT.and usa own youtube.

[Raptorsin7]

16 hours ago, itachi uchiha said:

china is a night mare if they become a superpower.

"China is a sleeping giant, let her sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world.”- Napoleon 

[PurpleTree]

6 minutes ago, Knowledge Hoarder said:

 

China with democratic values and competent leadership, would replace US and become the new leading superpower. And I've got no doubts about that.

but a democratic china wouldn't be china, maybe provinces would break away etc.

[Fleetinglife]

On 15/02/2022 at 2:33 AM, JuliusCaesar said:

This is the first post I've made in the Society section of the forum, as I tend to stay out of politics. But the situation in Ukraine has taken up so much of my mental energy as of late, that I feel I should discuss it with someone. I'll be describing how I see the immediate future unfold from the perspective of the Russian Federation and President Putin. So before you go interjecting and imposing the western view of things, just keep that in mind. In the future, I may provide my understanding of the western perspective. Also, keep in mind that I'm making predictions here as well(not just wishful thinking from Russia's perspective, but concretely what I see happening in the world in the future).

 

The Current Situation:

Russia's generals and Government officials have experienced anxiety over the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO, as that would mean US forces stationed right on Russia's border. This would mean that the US military would likely have missiles deployed that are capable of reaching Moscow in under 10 minutes. Think about the situation if the same thing was occurring but to the US. If Russia had made a deal with Canada or Mexico to build Russian bases near the US border. How would the Pentagon respond to such an obvious threat? To deliver a bottom-line understanding of Russia's perspective here. They've deployed a substantial force to the Ukrainian border to prepare for western aggression. And if in the end this results in Russia annexing Ukraine then so be it. Russia's leadership has the foresight to realize that could easily escalate into a world war. But what's the alternative? Risk suffering the end of Russia as a sovereign nation at the hands of the west? Surely invoking global conflict is a better outcome.

 

On Vladimir Putin:

 

On the 16th of February(this upcoming Wednesday), President Putin is going to make some provocative statements relative to the past and Russia's authority. Putin will make clear in no uncertain terms that he wants his people to be united against Western aggression. This will likely provoke western media outlets(CNN, MSNBC, even FOX news) to ramp up their already present effort to beat the drums of war. However, at this point, we aren't likely to see a full-blown invasion of Ukraine by Russia(or potentially any invasion) on this day.

 

Fast forward to around the middle of March, the Russian President will begin to commit more faithfully to his actions. Heretofore he genuinely hoped for a potential peaceful solution to the problem. But at this point have likely lost all trust in NATO(and specifically the US War Machine) to restrain themselves. And as such will be looking more seriously to consider ordering a full boots on ground invasion of Ukraine. This will represent a horrible moral conflict within Putin being resolved in a somewhat negative manner. Because he very strongly wants to avoid conflict with NATO and especially the US as the possible obvious consequences of it are bearing down on his conscience. But he thinks he has no choice because in his perception the west is forcing his hand. At this point, Russia will likely be cut off from SWIFT if that hasn't already occurred, and perhaps many other global chains as the US levies more serious sanctions against the Russian Federation.

 

Around the middle of June, Russia would appear to be in a favorable financial situation. Because Putin gets lucky in the way of securing wealth and prosperity for Russia even despite Western efforts to arrest Russia's economy. Or maybe it's somehow only the President himself who benefits financially. Either way, Putin appears to be financially lucky here.

 

Fast forward to around to the 25th of October, Putin steps into a new position of power never seen before in his life. Almost certainly a scenario that arises due to Russia successfully expanding to include Ukraine, and possibly even other past satellite countries of the long-dead Soviet Union.

 

To bottom line it for you, by the end of August this year Putin will be in a position of power he's never before known. To look at him in a nonlinear fashion. He wants to retake the lost nations of the Soviet Union, but he wants to do it causing the least amount of human suffering and collateral damage possible. Relative to his goal to become more powerful, he succeeds greatly.

 

On Russia:

 

Currently, the Russian Federation is experiencing the realization that it was naive to think it could make peace with its partners in the west. So as a country, she's preparing herself to fight for her interests.

 

Mid-April, Russia is going to be making huge moves in a military capacity against her enemies. The initiation of a serious invasion into Ukraine is likely to occur here.

 

Mid May, I see what appears to be a global catastrophe. It would appear that Russia's invaded Ukraine, exerted power, and become dramatically more influential. Foreign countries begin to consider or even enact military intervention because of Russia's increased use of violence. This is probably where WWIII will be kicking off.

 

Towards the end of July, Russia will be taking on a new identity. Likely related to Russia having expanded its borders and influence.

 

Around the end of October, Russia will be walking back some of its actions. Perhaps not surrendering any new territories, but certainly decelerating their conquest and taking a more conservative approach to things.

 

The Bottom Line:

 

On February 16th, I expect Putin to make strong threatening statements relative to the situation in Ukraine. Ides of March, Putin will be getting clear on what exactly he wants to do with Ukraine, and will likely make promises of that nature as well. Middle of April, we're likely to see an actual invasion of Ukraine. Forcing Russia into an alliance with China. Because as it stands, the US would likely win a war with Russia(well, if you can say there would be any winners in such a scenario). But with China and Russia united their combined forces will be more sufficient to oppose the US Military. Middle of May, the situation looks incredibly bad in a sense, and chaotic for the world. End of May, Russia will clearly define the extent to which she'll expand her authority. During the end of October Putin takes on a new identity and position(not necessarily an official change from the Russian President, just that it becomes clear he's in a very different position than before). Also during the end of October, Russia walks back some of what they've done and enters into negotiations. Though not necessarily surrendering any territory in the process. In 2024, Russia and Putin will be in a positive period of strength as a world power. And the events I'm seeing transpire now would seem to lead up to that.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I will be brutally honest with you with my impressions of this, since I read the whole thing you carefully wrote. 

Appreciate the first try effort, but my dude the way this is phrased and sounds  more like a HOI, Total War Rome 2, RTS power fantasy masquerading to be an actual attempt at a political analysis prognosis of geopolitics. 

One last jab, you summoned the megalomaniac aspects and fantasy elements of your acc name inspiration pretty well when writing and composing this. 

No, Putin is no Caesar, The Dneiper is no Rubicon, and no he won't proclaim himself dictator of the expanded Russian Federal Republic in July ( of all months ???) this year tbh with you my dude. 

Edited February 16, 2022 by Fleetinglife

[Roy]

You said this is taking up a lot of your mental energy. Be careful. These kind of things are a drain just like conspiracy theories. They are completely out of our control anyways, and serve no purpose.

Unless this is your actual job to be involved in politics, and your bills being paid depends on you knowing about it, you are wasting your time and distracted from more important things in your life.

[Reciprocality]

To assign probability to a WW3 in the next few years is the pinnacle of pure speculation,a drudgerous task devoid of both reason and aim.

Though it will either be a world war in some sense or there will be no world war in any sense, what i would speculate on rather is the nature of the war were it to unfold at all.

As a conclusion from there you are likely to see how that looks very different from the past wars we are familiar with, and for that reason alone you can see how the bayesian model of probability will do you minimal service.

Unless you close the system, begin from 50/50 and infest the reasoning with naive objects of reference such as "putin this" "the u.s this", "atomic bomb here" or "fear here". The problem then is that the meaning such references are supposed to contain in proportion to the universe are so radically removed from its actual workings that the conclusion says more of your insanity then about the world beyond established grasp.

At which point you discover the inductive method as a means for each such object to bear resemblance to the present world as idea, but since the object are themselves intuited as wild-cards that function at immeasurable will you are left without any more insight then you begun with, as well as the problem of drawing from trivial experience in history as alluded to above.