Why was violent crime going up so much in certain cities in the US recently?

[PurpleTree]

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/09/2020-homicide-spike-was-real/620183/

"But unlike the crime wave of the 1980s and ’90s, which affected many Americans of all walks of life, the current spike appears to be heavily concentrated. Many homicide victims are Black men, living in predominantly Black neighborhoods. Some conservatives are willing to cynically use violence in Chicago as a political talking point, but the solutions they propose are not solutions at all. Some liberals are wary of talking about the crime wave, for fear that it will undermine efforts to reform police and the criminal-justice system. Caught in the middle are places with rising violence, where residents want safe communities without abusive policing."

https://www.vox.com/22580710/defund-the-police-reform-murder-spike-research-evidence

"Last year, the US’s murder rate spiked by almost 30 percent. So far in 2021, murders are up nearly 10 percent in major cities. The 2020 increase alone is the largest percentage increase ever recorded in America — and a reversal from overall declines in murder rates since the 1990s."

[Hardkill]

They say that the consequences of the pandemic including the last recession and lockdowns contributed significantly to increase in violent crimes. Also, Trump and the right wing media incited a tremendous amount of violence in this country, in the right wing terrorism going that has gone on in the US. Plus, there has been a massive spike in gun sales throughout the whole country since 2020. 

[Raze]

1. Childhood lead poisoning is correlated to criminal activity later in life. In the USA children continue to be exposed to lead especially poor or minority children. 

 

2. Fatherlessness is correlated to criminal behavior later in life. The out of wedlocke birth rate swelled in the USA up to 40 percent, and out of wedlocke birth rates are correlated to fatherlessness. Children raised fatherless are a minority but still exist and are thus more likely to turn to crime than otherwise. It is more common among the working class and certain minorities.

3. There is a theory called the Ferguson effect which noted that after various riots in Ferguson there was an increased crime rate. The theory is that after a riot or a heavy amount of public and media criticism of police, police become less bold and more careful to avoid dramatics but this results in renewed criminal activity.

4. There is a general societal stability theory of crime. There was a high crime rate after the 60’s ending in the late 90’s. Though some believe this was because lead in gasoline increased lead poisoning in children certain meta analysis found lead poisoning may have only caused at most 36 percent of the increase. It’s possible a general lack of stability in society results in more misbehavior and crime rose after the instability of the 60’s to 80’s (Vietnam war failure, King assassination riots, various assassinations, etc.) It’s possible the pandemic as well as George Floyd riots are recreating this trend.

Indeed not Just crime, but a lot of negative behavior is increasing. See:
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/13/opinion/america-falling-apart.html

https://archive.is/yJaZv

https://www.slowboring.com/p/all-kinds-of-bad-behavior-is-on-the

Edited January 17, 2022 by Raze

[Yarco]

Police were villainized and/or rendered unable to properly do their duties after all of the BLM protests, I don't know how you can expect any different. If I was a cop I'd be constantly afraid to lose my job or worse.

Why are people suddenly robbing trains in LA? That kinda stuff hasn't happened since the Wild West days. It's just a lack of enforcement. 

Plus when people do get arrested, they get let out until their trial rather than put in jail... due to covid, lack of space, or whatever else. Even in my relatively small city in this is a huge problem.... one guy has attempted to sexually assault women on 5+ different occasions in broad daylight, keeps getting arrested and let back out. Everyone in town is outraged but can't do anything to stop it. People breaking into cars every night, people stealing catalytic converters every night, and most other crimes, are all "catch and release" as well. 

Inflation, joblessness, etc is creating more pressure for people to commit crime, but if police and more importantly THE COURTS showed they were actually tough on crime, it would deter most people. People will only do what they think they can get away with.

Edited January 17, 2022 by Yarco

[puporing]

Perhaps lacking purpose or the ability to have one.

[Preety_India]

Many factors 

• Sociopathy 
• Poverty 
• Lack of resources
• Parents are criminals 
• Government/law enforcement is lousy 
• Bad upbringing (parents don't teach ethics and morals) 
• Stage Red Society 
• Glorification and Glamourization of crimes and criminals in movies, stories, media, by celebrities, rap music etc 
• Too many gangs in the area that are not being checked by the police because the police are "too scared" to go after real criminals. But they will take some weak looking drug addict and mercilessly beat him and put him in jail. Because police have zero spine to go after the real thing. 
• Glorification of bullies 
• No long term consequences for career criminals 
• Illiteracy, lack of education, no life purpose, and zero interest in development 
• Glorification of "male power" 

 

 

[PurpleTree]

11 hours ago, puporing said:

Perhaps lacking purpose or the ability to have one.

a purpose or a vision is certainly important

8 hours ago, Preety_India said:

Many factors 

• Sociopathy 
• Poverty 
• Lack of resources
• Parents are criminals 
• Government/law enforcement is lousy 
• Bad upbringing (parents don't teach ethics and morals) 
• Stage Red Society 
• Glorification and Glamourization of crimes and criminals in movies, stories, media, by celebrities, rap music etc 
• Too many gangs in the area that are not being checked by the police because the police are "too scared" to go after real criminals. But they will take some weak looking drug addict and mercilessly beat him and put him in jail. Because police have zero spine to go after the real thing. 
• Glorification of bullies 
• No long term consequences for career criminals 
• Illiteracy, lack of education, no life purpose, and zero interest in development 
• Glorification of "male power" 

 

 

none of those really explain why there was such a huge spike in violence recently in certain cities.

male "power" for example has been more glorified in the 80s etc.

[Preety_India]

Just now, PurpleTree said:

a purpose or a vision is certainly important

none of those really explain why there was such a huge spike in violence recently in certain cities.

male "power" for example has been more glorified in the 80s etc.

I think whatever happens in the past affects many generations to come. 

Btw rap music still celebrates drugs and gangs just like it did 5 years ago. Nothing changed much. 

 

[PurpleTree]

Just now, Preety_India said:

I think whatever happens in the past affects many generations to come.

 

of course but it doesn't explain the recent spike

 

[Windappreciator]

12 hours ago, puporing said:

Perhaps lacking purpose or the ability to have one.

probably this

[Lyubov]

Pretty insane what’s going on in Cali. We are living in a time where green doesn’t fully know how to govern yet. Still tinkering with what works and what doesn’t. We need a strong green that is tough but at the same time has green values. I don’t think green has to necessarily be weak hippies that let drug addicts and people driven mad by poverty walk all over them. We need a stricter green that builds on the discipline and order found in blue.  

[Windappreciator]

@Lyubov  difficult do govern as green with underlying orange

[happyhappy]

@PurpleTreemay be the pandemic took a huge toll. 

we are saw a spike in homelessness, loss of jobs and with it comes financial crisis in many low income communities .income gap in US "elites" and low income is getting wider while middle income is shrinking. Inflation rates are on rise like never before. with that, many might look for easy ways or ways to make money and drugs and stuff are basically on top of the list. with it comes CRIME!

another thing is the backlash of trumphism and alt right stage red  in many states. this could be the underlying reason for black homicides. or it could be gang wars between the black communities that are in to drugs  as well.

another point is that we are forced to stay inside our homes in lockdown for months. our social lives had to  be reduced to minimal. this took a toll on many of us and this ain't human nature. humans are social animals. i myself was depressed from being locked inside walls for months.

so the depression resulted from all these factors including others can be thought to trigger these outbursts of violence.

Edited January 19, 2022 by happyhappy

[Scholar]

I thought defund the police was extremely unpopular in poor black neighbourhoods, precisely because they are the ones who will suffer first as a consequence of it. Is this not correct?

[Lyubov]

51 minutes ago, Scholar said:

I thought defund the police was extremely unpopular in poor black neighbourhoods, precisely because they are the ones who will suffer first as a consequence of it. Is this not correct?

It’s universally pretty unpopular across the US. It’s a progressive talking point that is under baked. It’s misunderstood by the right as well as weaponized by them to use as a political talking point against the left. The left hasn’t really fleshed out what it means nor is the country developed enough to implement such measures.

[a7xKingz]

The pandemic took a huge toll on everyone and the lockdowns specifically really hurt people that were probably already struggling to begin with. 

We are meant to connect with people, to love, to laugh, to build communities. 

Suffering is due to a lack of love, and the lockdowns accentuated that.

People fearful, not connecting, has created disaster.