Modern warfare from what I'm gathering

[trenton]

Modern warfare can be an extremely difficult issue to research.  There is often a lot of one sided propaganda that it makes it difficult to find accurate information.  Furthermore, wars are hectic and it forces people to act from incomplete information.  Nevertheless, I have identified some factors which cause wars, which wars are necessary, and which can be prevented.

In the modern world, some of the causes of war include the fear of nuclear weapons, energy crises caused by disputes over oil, climate change induced droughts, and ISIS insurgencies.  Most of these factors are preventable, but when factions like ISIS occupy large amounts of territories and destabilize regions like Syria, Iraq, Libya, and Somalia foreign intervention is often forced.

The first strategy for preventing wars is for the United nations to agree to a universal ban on nuclear weapons.  The United States made a serious mistake when the invasion of Iraq began because of the fear of weapons of mass destruction.  The weapons did not exist, but Colin Powell was still effective in manufacturing consent for the invasion.  In order to prevent mistakes like these from happening again, a universal ban on nuclear weapons could alleviate international tensions.  This would also prevent events like the red scare, which could be caused by very powerful nations competing to control land and resources.

The second strategy for preventing war is to switch to renewable energy.  Since the 1970's some countries in the middle East like Saudi Arabia set up oil boycotts against the United States.  These oil shocks caused energy crises which lead to skyrocketing gas and oil prices.  This lead to countries from around the world competing for access to oil in the middle East.  The clearest example of an international intervention caused by oil disputes was the gulf war. The gulf war took place in the early 1990's because of Iraq's attempt to control oil pricing through an invasion of Kuwait.  If more countries switched to renewable energy, it is possible to decrease dependency on fossil fuels which caused these disputes.  This is an extremely important step that will also help mankind to avoid water wars.

Droughts are a significant factor in placing intense economic pressures on countries.  For example, one of the contributing factors to the Syrian civil war was the worst drought in the history of Syria.  In the future it is expected that water will play a bigger role in inciting international conflict.  These droughts are linked to climate change which can be minimized through renewable energy.  This can be accomplished through projects like building solar panels on the Sahara, providing energy for many different countries.  This would make it possible to avoid economic recessions caused by energy crises, avoiding most wars in the process.

The remaining wars which are hard to prevent are those caused by ISIS insurgencies.  Currently, there is a U.S. Led coalition to defeat the insurgents in many different countries.  A premature withdrawal of U.S. Troops could leave areas like Somalia and Syria vulnerable to future attacks at the hands of ISIS and other dangerous factions.  One of the reasons these factions exist is because people like Osama bin Laden wanted revenge against the United States for all the war crimes the nation caused throughout the cold war.  Osama bin Laden argued that the United States caused many events like 9/11 and he was justified in getting his revenge through these attacks.  If the United States did not commit as many war crimes, maybe it would prevent people like Osama bin Laden from being radicalized to the point of threatening revenge through suicide attacks against the United States.

One of the causes of American war crimes is the use of private military contractors in war zones.  PMCs are not held to the same degree of accountability as U.S. Troops, but the incentive for using them is that they are cheaper and require less training.  This enabled the torture of Iraqi civilians at the hands of PMCs as the U.S.dependency on PMCs expanded.  The United States often used more PMCs than troops, like in Afghanistan by 2007.  These trends have continued into 2019, and so long as PMCs are not held accountable, more people might seek revenge against the United for the war crimes committed.

From what I have gathered it appears that many wars are preventable unless an intervention is called for to stop factions like ISIS from gaining territory.  There are strategies for defeating ISIS, and based on the maps of their territory, ISIS has been in decline over the past decade.  It seems that interventions against the groups are often successful and necessary to stabilize different regions.  Although humanity may not be able to prevent all wars, it is certainly possible to prevent some of them through a ban on nuclear weapons and a transition to renewable energy while improving the accountability of PMCs to reduce war crimes and civilian casualties.  By taking these steps humanity can make the world a safer place by preventing water wars and nuclear stand offs.  

[Preety_India]

What do you think about the recent emergence of far right nationalist sentiment in Europe which is largely anti-immigration and how is immigration going to impact the future of Europe and will it be a contributing factor to intercultural conflict? 

 

[trenton]

@Knowledge Hoarder you have raised a solid  point that is worth discussing.  I will try to make a steel man for keeping nuclear weapons.

The primary function of nuclear weapons is to serve as a shield from invasion.  Other countries will not want to go to war with countries with nuclear capabilities as they will be facing the threat of being wiped off the face of the earth.  As a result weapons of mass destruction counter intuitively prevent more deaths than they cause by strongly discouraging war due to the threat of mutual destruction, killing billions.

my initial research argued that nuclear weapons caused several crises including the red scare, the Cuban missile crisis, and the invasion of Iraq.  If these crises are not enough to outweigh all of the wars prevented by the threat of mutual destruction, then humanity should keep nuclear weapons.

With this steel man in mind, I will now add one more argument.

Other countries using nuclear weapons against us is not the only threat.  There is also the possibility of accidents caused by a miscarriage of our own nuclear weapons.  A few examples of nuclear accidents include the 1997 radiation poisoning in Georgia, an explosion in Y-12 security center in 2003, and a failed nuclear test by Russians in 2019 which caused a missile to land in the sea when it didn't function properly.  These nuclear accidents are more likely to kill people than an actual nuclear war ensuring mutual destruction.

These accidents are not as bad as the ones that happened 50 years ago.  "on Jan. 21, 1968, ... an American B-52G Stratofortress bomber, carrying four nuclear bombs, crashed onto the sea ice of Wolstenholme Fjord in the northwest corner of Greenland.". This is not the only time a military jet carrying nuclear weapons crashed.  If the weapons detonated on any of these occasions, it would have been a catastrophe.

https://theconversation.com/50-years-ago-a-us-military-jet-crashed-in-greenland-with-4-nuclear-bombs-on-board-87155

[trenton]

7 hours ago, Preety_India said:

What do you think about the recent emergence of far right nationalist sentiment in Europe which is largely anti-immigration and how is immigration going to impact the future of Europe and will it be a contributing factor to intercultural conflict? 

 

@Preety_India I didn't research the refugee crisis caused by civilians fleeing the war zones and I will have to think about that point.