Germany: How to vote for a Symbol of change next time

[supremeyingyang]

Rule: If a Party gets 3 'Direktmandate', the 5% Rule won't apply anymore (as seen with LINKE currently).

There are 2 dozens of little Parties. I see a opportunity for 3 or so 1-2% Parties to get 3 'Direktmandate'.

There is so little change. If only one new party, like VOLT, with 1% would get her 3 'Direktmandate' and thus go into Bundestag, this would demonstrate that change is possible. I think this is what Germany needs to see: Good change is possible.

What do you guys think? Is it possible? And how?

[Heinrich Faust]

I think, Die Linke is more of an exception. A German party has to have an extremely strong heartland to win direct mandates when still getting less than 5%. Probably, FW could make it, if the CSU would let them (https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huckepackverfahren). However, the Union parties' current policy is to get rid of the federal FW, rather than cooperating with them.
Nevertheless, the FW have a fair chance to crack the 5% in the next federal elections. Until then, they're going to get into some more state parliaments, especially in more rural and conservative states like Saxony-Anhalt. If they manage to bed down in more states, or even on a federal level, this will extend the conservative camp, but also split it up and make possible more ragbag coalitions against the CDU (e.g., SPD-Grüne-FW).

Volt, however, got a disastrous result. I've been in some German cities the past few months, and there were Volt posters literally everywhere. It somehow already looked like one of the big parties. So, 0.4% is quite disappointing. They should have made 0.5%+ to get access to the public party funding. They might need a decade until they grow into the Bundestag. Now, they have to do three things: 1st, growing their base and winning some local elections to gain more attention; 2nd, get public party funding through winning 1%+ in some state elections (concentrating on more progressive states like Hamburg and Hesse); 3rd, get their work done in the Netherlands and other countries with easy conditions. There could be a good niche for them in Switzerland, e.g.
In 2025 finally, Volt might win seats in Hamburg.

The Tierschutzpartei got a decent result, similarly to their Dutch sister party earlier this year. Now, when the Greens are going to be part of a governing coalition, the Tierschutzpartei can easily position itself as a more fundamental green party and enjoy an even larger clientele. Not sure, if they will ever make it into the federal parliament, but they have fair chances to get seats in some state parliaments, especially in Berlin.

Die Basis got a decent result, too, and it will probably be its best result ever. My guess is, that they will vanish, once the pandemia is over.

The PARTEI is stuck at 1%. They will never find 5% of the electorate bothering going to the polls for a satirical party.

Team Todenhöfer was a one-hit wonder. When Todenhöfer retires, the party will as well. And he's already 80…

The Pirate Party joined Volt in failing to reach 0.5% for the party funding. But unless Volt, the Pirates are already far, far past their peak, and not just in Germany.

The ÖDP lost half of its voters. It got marginalised by the growing Tierschutzpartei, and I doubt, it will ever recover.

 

[supremeyingyang]

3 hours ago, Heinrich Faust said:

I think, Die Linke is more of an exception. A German party has to have an extremely strong heartland to win direct mandates when still getting less than 5%. Probably, FW could make it, if the CSU would let them (https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huckepackverfahren). However, the Union parties' current policy is to get rid of the federal FW, rather than cooperating with them.
Nevertheless, the FW have a fair chance to crack the 5% in the next federal elections. Until then, they're going to get into some more state parliaments, especially in more rural and conservative states like Saxony-Anhalt. If they manage to bed down in more states, or even on a federal level, this will extend the conservative camp, but also split it up and make possible more ragbag coalitions against the CDU (e.g., SPD-Grüne-FW).

Volt, however, got a disastrous result. I've been in some German cities the past few months, and there were Volt posters literally everywhere. It somehow already looked like one of the big parties. So, 0.4% is quite disappointing. They should have made 0.5%+ to get access to the public party funding. They might need a decade until they grow into the Bundestag. Now, they have to do three things: 1st, growing their base and winning some local elections to gain more attention; 2nd, get public party funding through winning 1%+ in some state elections (concentrating on more progressive states like Hamburg and Hesse); 3rd, get their work done in the Netherlands and other countries with easy conditions. There could be a good niche for them in Switzerland, e.g.
In 2025 finally, Volt might win seats in Hamburg.

The Tierschutzpartei got a decent result, similarly to their Dutch sister party earlier this year. Now, when the Greens are going to be part of a governing coalition, the Tierschutzpartei can easily position itself as a more fundamental green party and enjoy an even larger clientele. Not sure, if they will ever make it into the federal parliament, but they have fair chances to get seats in some state parliaments, especially in Berlin.

Die Basis got a decent result, too, and it will probably be its best result ever. My guess is, that they will vanish, once the pandemia is over.

The PARTEI is stuck at 1%. They will never find 5% of the electorate bothering going to the polls for a satirical party.

Team Todenhöfer was a one-hit wonder. When Todenhöfer retires, the party will as well. And he's already 80…

The Pirate Party joined Volt in failing to reach 0.5% for the party funding. But unless Volt, the Pirates are already far, far past their peak, and not just in Germany.

The ÖDP lost half of its voters. It got marginalised by the growing Tierschutzpartei, and I doubt, it will ever recover.

 

I'm overwhelmed with the effort you surely had to list that!

The most likely Candidates to get 3 Direktmandate are for me: FW, Volt, Tierschutzpartei and Basis. Let's forget about the other ones, especially about the bad far-right ones. I care for contemplation 'good change'.

I think any of the above Parties winning 3 Direktmandate would accelerate change, because it would show that something other than the big parties is even possible. Even with few Seats 'könnten sie das Züglein an der Waage sein'. But even more important is the sign that things can be accomplished.

You could however make the exact opposite case that you should try to change the existing parties, because that is more likely to change something.

And Germany needs both, however I don't see myself joining any of the 6 old Parties

What do you think about what I wrote, @Heinrich Faust ?

[Heinrich Faust]

Well, first of all, the FW are a stage orange conservative party; there's no big change to gain from them. Maybe they would demagnify the AfD a bit.

On 1.10.2021 at 7:28 PM, supremeyingyang said:

The most likely Candidates to get 3 Direktmandate are for me: FW, Volt, Tierschutzpartei and Basis.

If one of them makes it into the Bundestag, probably through winning more than 5%.

On 1.10.2021 at 7:28 PM, supremeyingyang said:

because it would show that something other than the big parties is even possible.

In the past 40 years, there was the rise of the Greens, the rise of Die Linke, and the rise and fall of the Pirate Party, not to mention the rise and fall of several far-right parties, including AfD, which is the most recent example of a new party rejigging the system. And we might witness an ongoing rise of the FW in the upcoming years. I'm positive, there will rise a stage yellow party sooner or later, too. If Volt fails, there will establish another progressive party.

On the other hand, there is no necessity of a stage yellow party yet, neither in Germany, nor in any other country (except in Sweden maybe), because stage green is not fully embodied yet.

On 1.10.2021 at 7:28 PM, supremeyingyang said:

You could however make the exact opposite case that you should try to change the existing parties, because that is more likely to change something.

Sure! It's much about personal preference. Like rather working at a startup or at a big stock corporation.

[supremeyingyang]

51 minutes ago, Heinrich Faust said:

Well, first of all, the FW are a stage orange conservative party; there's no big change to gain from them. Maybe they would demagnify the AfD a bit.

Not a bad outcome

51 minutes ago, Heinrich Faust said:

If one of them makes it into the Bundestag, probably through winning more than 5%.

Yes and I think the goal of getting 5% would largely correlate with having Direktmandate. This reduces the way too big problem to get 5% to a smaller problem: Get a Direktmandat. Still way too big. You can reduce that to methods of getting people to vote for such an candidate, but mostly it would be a derivate of 'providing value'. Here is my step by step manual:

Politicians in the making go to formal meetings of regional politicians and make notes about what they talk about, what they as new politicians need to learn to keep up, what they are lacking, how the rituals goes... After learning that, they seek a project that is small enough to be solved at regional level, but important enough for the normal citizen.

They Research it deeply and solve the problem in Theory. If everything is clear: laws, stakeholder or whatever.. They go to the most promising established faction and tell them about the problem. In the concise description is already the answer. You presenting yourself as an expert, someone who is useful. The Faction (say SPD) make things happen takes the praise. After some time you repeat that. And again. And again. The other Politicians and the bureaucrats will notice the new politician, our expert. Ordinary People will recognize over time the worth of your Inquiries. I think in 10 Year steps here.

At some point people ask for Interviews. Now can the new politician 'go live'.

I call that politican apprenticeship and I would donate 50€/Month to someone doing that for the next 10 years in Full Time. Of course there would be a need for more Patreons, so to speak. If someone isn't paid, the person will be distracted with the need to make a living.

I have already 2 people in mind which I know for more than 20 years, who would fit if they were willing to do that. We'll see. I will not do it, my life purpose is to bring learning to the people and not politics. But I will do that I can to support someone or some party if they are integer to me

51 minutes ago, Heinrich Faust said:

In the past 40 years, there was the rise of the Greens, the rise of Die Linke, and the rise and fall of the Pirate Party, not to mention the rise and fall of several far-right parties, including AfD, which is the most recent example of a new party rejigging the system. And we might witness an ongoing rise of the FW in the upcoming years. I'm positive, there will rise a stage yellow party sooner or later, too. If Volt fails, there will establish another progressive party

I argue that all these Parties are structural remarkable similar (let's not talk about everything right of FW, please => trash). They are not build for participation of ordinary people and this is due to developing in context of the larger system

51 minutes ago, Heinrich Faust said:

On the other hand, there is no necessity of a stage yellow party yet, neither in Germany, nor in any other country (except in Sweden maybe), because stage green is not fully embodied yet.

I think there would be a lot of usage for that. I can for example imagine a single Direktmandat Yellow Politician without a big Party emerge and become 'a voice of reason'  or 'mediator' between factions

51 minutes ago, Heinrich Faust said:

Sure! It's much about personal preference. Like rather working at a startup or at a big stock corporation.

Exactly

Edited October 3, 2021 by supremeyingyang

[Heinrich Faust]

9 hours ago, supremeyingyang said:

I argue that all these Parties are structural remarkable similar

The structure is given from Germany's political system.

9 hours ago, supremeyingyang said:

I think there would be a lot of usage for that. I can for example imagine a single Direktmandat Yellow Politician without a big Party emerge and become 'a voice of reason'  or 'mediator' between factions

I doubt that. I estimate, there already are some (partly) stage yellow people in the German parliaments. And, by the way, not all Volt politicians are at stage yellow.

[supremeyingyang]

9 hours ago, Heinrich Faust said:

The structure is given from Germany's political system.

In part. There is however a Part of thede Parties which I would characterize with what the Sociologist Colin Crouch calls 'Post-Democratic'. This is characterized by an entfremdung of the People and Politicians. Democratic Acts become ritualistic. Parties orient themselves on Corporation or the 0.01% - Corruption. (...)

9 hours ago, Heinrich Faust said:

I doubt that. I estimate, there already are some (partly) stage yellow people in the German parliaments. And, by the way, not all Volt politicians are at stage yellow.

No doubt! But no one is a great Politician AND Yellow.

How would you charaterize the Top Politicians in Spiral Dynamics?

 

[Tim R]

3 hours ago, supremeyingyang said:

How would you charaterize the Top Politicians in Spiral Dynamics?

@supremeyingyang Which ones do you mean?

[supremeyingyang]

@Tim R

Well, in you Interpretation is already a part of the answer. I know who I would classify Top Tier  in Germany.

Let's begin with Merkel and the three Kanzlerkandidaten

[Tim R]

Merkel & Laschet: Mostly orange, a good chunk of blue and maybe a hint of green in Merkel. 

Scholz: Mostly orange with a little bit of green. 

Baerbock: Mostly green with some orange. 

I don't think there is a single influential politician with any notable amount of yellow. Highest we have is green in Die Grünen und Die Linke. I think there is almost no green within the AfD. There's some green in the FDP, but it's mostly orange with still some notable blue underbelly. 

I'm sure there are politicians who have a leg in yellow, but that's no more than 3-4%. 

[supremeyingyang]

6 hours ago, Tim R said:

Merkel & Laschet: Mostly orange, a good chunk of blue and maybe a hint of green in Merkel. 

Scholz: Mostly orange with a little bit of green. 

Baerbock: Mostly green with some orange.

Lindner: Orange

Harbeck: Green

Gauland: Blue

Because head Figures and the Circle of them (Colin Crouch's words) have so much Power, much more than the rest of the party it would be maybe interesting to analyze that groups. For example SPD: Kühnert + Esken + Borjahns + Stegmann.

It would also be interesting to me to try to determine the MBTI Types of them to see which are the most Types and thus can predict their bias... At least with the 'big wigs' should it be make able to guess a little. A try... just a try

Merkel: INTP - Logician

Laschet: ESFJ - Consul

Scholz: ISTJ - Logistician

Bärbock: I don't know, but surely ***J -
 

6 hours ago, Tim R said:

I don't think there is a single influential politician with any notable amount of yellow. Highest we have is green in Die Grünen und Die Linke. I think there is almost no green within the AfD. There's some green in the FDP, but it's mostly orange with still some notable blue underbelly. 

I'm sure there are politicians who have a leg in yellow, but that's no more than 3-4%. 

wouldn't it be interesting to find some of them.. would you say that Marco Bülow is one of them?

 

[Heinrich Faust]

I don't know politicians good enough to judge on their particular stage.

I just read through Marco Bülow's Wikipedia biography and his website. He seems pretty stage green to me.

[supremeyingyang]

@Heinrich Faust

When I now think about it, openly Stage Yellow Politicians would have a hard time. So even if they where there, they should have learned to hide their Yellow