Will there be a war with China?

[Lindsay]

Chinese propaganda blames the USA for covid. This blogger lived in China for 9 years and married a Chinese woman. Cool channel. Adv China on YouTube. 

[Stovo]

Yeah, I've seen a lot of his videos. It's funny because China is clearly having a stage blue backlash to stage orange, whilst Winston here is having a stage orange backlash to stage blue. 

There's a ton of propaganda in China yes. They are at war with the US, and the only way to convince their people that freedom and democracy are bad ideas is to use propaganda to convince them otherwise. The US employs propaganda too, but it's more covert.

Will it escalate to a shooting war? That's a tough one. The Thucydides trap says in most cases a rising power will go to war with a ruling power, but it hasn't happened directly between two nuclear powers before. 

There's also the game theory, it would be advantageous for China to wait for war because their strength is growing relative to the US. For the US it would be better to have a war sooner whilst they are still stronger. From what I understand currently is that if a war occurred today then China would win it within its local Asia region, whilst the US would win a larger global war. 

If I were the US President, and it's difficult because I don't have all the information that military commanders would have, I would concentrate on uniting the US and growing it stronger through big investments in infrastructure and education. This is what Biden is currently doing. I would then speak with the leaders of the US allies, especially Nato allies, and ensure unity between allies whilst helping them to grow stronger too. This would be key because the US has very strong allies that share its values, whilst China does not.

I'd then bide my time, I wouldn't strike first because I don't believe in wars. Countries should set themselves up to defend themselves if need be, however. Also, in the very long term, China's population should start declining and they cannot rely on immigrants the way the west can because 1) China is anti-immigration, and 2) nobody wants to live there. This will weaken China in the long term. Potentially Winston is right too, in that they will weaken due to these recent reforms towards a more command-based economy, but I'm not so sure about that.

The only very difficult question is the area where war is most likely to break out: Taiwan. On balance I feel it would be right to defend them as they are de facto an ally, but the argument could easily be made that it's China's internal affairs. I think the outcome of any war would probably be decided here. Ie if Taiwan is successfully defended then it'll be a western victory, if it falls to China then it's a China victory. 

[snowyowl]

There's cold war already with the cyber sabotage and espionage,  but proxy wars are more likely than direct war between the superpowers. Eg weren't the Viet Cong supported by China?  

[Willie]

8 minutes ago, Stovo said:

There's a ton of propaganda in China yes. They are at war with the US, and the only way to convince their people that freedom and democracy are bad ideas is to use propaganda to convince them otherwise. The US employs propaganda too, but it's more covert.

The only very difficult question is the area where war is most likely to break out: Taiwan. On balance I feel it would be right to defend them as they are de facto an ally, but the argument could easily be made that it's China's internal affairs. I think the outcome of any war would probably be decided here. Ie if Taiwan is successfully defended then it'll be a western victory, if it falls to China then it's a China victory. 

How would anyone be convinced that a viral infection that was first seen in Wuhan is America’s fault? In a war of propaganda, China has a looooooot more work to do. It was super easy for Trump, on the other hand. The virus started in China, so it’s a China virus. China bad, America good. Boom! Propaganda done.

As far as Taiwan is concerned, it’s widely known they consider themselves to be independent. If China were to invade, I’m sure there would be many Taiwanese frantically trying to get out similar to what we’ve seen from Afghanistan because they don’t want to live under CCP rule. But it doesn’t make any sense for Biden to hastily take the military out of one country and hastily put them in a different country soon after. I say if China decides to become the world’s asshole by invading, let them. Congratulations, one island acquired. But it would make them look bad globally.

[Stovo]

6 minutes ago, Willie said:

How would anyone be convinced that a viral infection that was first seen in Wuhan is America’s fault? In a war of propaganda, China has a looooooot more work to do. It was super easy for Trump, on the other hand. The virus started in China, so it’s a China virus. China bad, America good. Boom! Propaganda done.

As far as Taiwan is concerned, it’s widely known they consider themselves to be independent. If China were to invade, I’m sure there would be many Taiwanese frantically trying to get out similar to what we’ve seen from Afghanistan because they don’t want to live under CCP rule. But it doesn’t make any sense for Biden to hastily take the military out of one country and hastily put them in a different country soon after. I say if China decides to become the world’s asshole by invading, let them. Congratulations, one island acquired. But it would make them look bad globally.

@Willie You underestimate the power of propaganda. My Chinese ex recently texted me, a well-educated woman, to tell me that she heard the virus originated in the US. She genuinely thought it was a real fact. I had to tell her to be very careful what both sides are saying because the US and China are in a type of war. 

You also underestimate the strategic importance of Taiwan. 

[DieFree]

7 minutes ago, Stovo said:

@Willie You underestimate the power of propaganda. My Chinese ex recently texted me, a well-educated woman, to tell me that she heard the virus originated in the US. She genuinely thought it was a real fact. I had to tell her to be very careful what both sides are saying because the US and China are in a type of war. 

You also underestimate the strategic importance of Taiwan. 

You should have said "ex honey, the virus didn't originate from the U.S but U.S government funding helped create it." 

[Willie]

11 minutes ago, Stovo said:

@Willie You underestimate the power of propaganda. My Chinese ex recently texted me, a well-educated woman, to tell me that she heard the virus originated in the US. She genuinely thought it was a real fact. I had to tell her to be very careful what both sides are saying because the US and China are in a type of war. 

You also underestimate the strategic importance of Taiwan. 

Did you ask where she heard it?

Perhaps. What are the arguments for Chinese invasion?

[Fleetinglife]

The New Chinese Cultural Revolution against Western liberal globalism and global speculator and financialized capitalism.

Note: My Aim is not to simp for China but to inform people on this post on the official Chinese perspective and source on things.

''Li Guangman, a columnist for the now-defunct website Chawang and former editor of the trade publication Central China Electric Power, first published his opinion piece, “Everyone Can Sense That a Profound Transformation is Underway!,” to his public WeChat account @李光满冰点时评. People’s Daily, Xinhua, Guangming Daily, and other prominent state media platforms promptly picked up the piece. While it is unclear whether the move was coordinated with Li beforehand, it is not unprecedented for state media to elevate nationalistic bloggers who echo, or even foreshadow national policy. In 2014, Xi Jinping promoted Zhou Xiaoping, an ultra-nationalist blogger with a particular distaste for the U.S., as a model for other writers at the Beijing Forum on Literature and Art, in a speech evocative of Mao Zedong’s 1942 “Talks at the Yan’an Forum on Literature and Art.”

Li’s sweeping, impassioned essay used an ongoing celebrity culture “clean up” campaign as a launching point to argue that the United States “is waging biological warfare, cyberwarfare, space warfare and public opinion battles against China, and is ramping up efforts to foment a ‘color revolution’ by mobilizing a fifth column within China.” In his vigorous conclusion, Li dismisses recent reforms as superficial, arguing that it is time for a more radical transformation:

China’s entertainment industry has never lacked for scandals that stink to high heaven. Taken together, the recent back-to-back scandals involving Kris Wu and Henry Huo, Zhang Zhehan’s “devil worship” at Japan’s Yasukuni Shrine, and now the rape allegation against Hunan TV host Qian Feng have made people feel that the Chinese entertainment industry is rotten to the core. Without a swift crackdown, entertainment will not be the only thing that rots—the arts, literature, culture, performance, film, and television spheres will all follow suit.

What sort of feeling do we get, just by looking at the events of the last two days—the crackdown on fan groups, Zheng Shuang being fined, and works by Zhao Wei and Gao Xiaosong being banned and de-platformed? If we take a broader political perspective on this series of events, we can discern a historical and developmental trend. 

Consider the suspension of Ant Group’s IPO, the central government’s antitrust policies and reorganization of the economic order, the 18.2 billion yuan fine levied on Alibaba and the investigation of Didi Global, the grand commemoration of the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party, the proposed path to common prosperity, and the recent series of actions to clean up the mess in the entertainment industry. What these events tell us is that a monumental change is taking place in China and that the economic, financial, cultural, and political spheres are undergoing a profound transformation—or, one could say, a profound revolution. It marks a return from “capitalist cliques” to the People, a shift from “capital-centered” to “people-centered.” It is, therefore, a political transformation in which the People will once again be front and center, and all those who obstruct this people-centered transformation will be left behind. This profound transformation also marks a return to the original intent of the Chinese Communist Party, a return to a people-centered approach, and a return to the essence of socialism.

This transformation will wash away all the dust: capital markets will no longer be a paradise for get-rich-quick capitalists, cultural markets will no longer be heaven for sissy-boy stars, and news and public opinion will no longer be in the position of worshipping western culture. It is a return to the revolutionary spirit, a return to heroism, a return to courage and righteousness. We need to bring all forms of cultural chaos under control and build a vibrant, healthy, virile, intrepid, and people-oriented culture. We need to combat the manipulation of capital markets by big capital, fight platform-based monopolies, prevent bad money from driving out the good, and ensure the flow of capital to high-tech companies, manufacturers, and companies operating in the real economy. The ongoing restructuring of private tutoring organizations and school districts will clean up the chaos in the educational system, bring about a true return to accessibility and fairness, and give ordinary people room for upward mobility. In the future, we must also bring high housing prices and exorbitant medical expenses under control, and completely level the “three great mountains” of education, medical care, and housing. Although we are not trying to “kill the rich to aid the poor,” we need to find a practical solution to a worsening income gap that allows the rich to keep getting richer while the poor keep getting poorer. Common prosperity means allowing ordinary workers to enjoy a larger share of the social distribution of wealth. This transformation will bring a breath of fresh air to our society. Current efforts to crack down on the arts, entertainment, film, and television spheres are not nearly robust enough. We must use all the means at our disposal to strike down various forms of celebrity worship and fan culture, stamp out “pretty-boy” and “sissy-boy” tendencies in our national character, and ensure that our arts, entertainment, film, and television spheres are truly upright and upstanding. Those working in the arts, entertainment, film, and television must go down to the grassroots and allow ordinary workers and citizens to become the protagonists, to play the leading roles in our literature and art.

China faces an increasingly fraught and complex international landscape as the United States menaces China with worsening military threats, economic and technological blockades, attacks on our financial system, and attempts at political and diplomatic isolation. The U.S. is waging biological warfare, cyber warfare, space warfare, and public opinion battles against China, and is ramping up efforts to foment a “color revolution” by mobilizing the fifth column within China. If we rely on the barons of capitalism to battle the forces of imperialism and hegemony, if we continue our obeisance to American “tittytainment” tactics, if we allow this generation of young people to lose their mettle and masculinity, then who needs an enemy—we will have brought destruction upon ourselves, much like the Soviet Union back in the day, when it allowed the nation to disintegrate, its wealth to be looted, and its population to sink into calamity. The profound transformations now taking place in China are a direct response to an increasingly fraught and complex international landscape and a direct response to the savage and violent attacks that the U.S. has already begun to launch against China.

Every one of us can sense that a profound social transformation is underway, and it is not limited to the realm of capital or entertainment. It is not enough to make superficial changes, to tear down what is already rotten; we must go deeper, and scrape the poison from the bone. We must clean the house and clear the air to make our society a healthier one and to make all members of our society happy in body and mind.'' [Chinese]

Introduction by Joseph Brouwer; translation by Alex Yu and Cindy Carter.

Source: https://chinadigitaltimes.net/2021/08/translation-everyone-can-sense-that-a-profound-transformation-is-underway/

 

Edited September 4, 2021 by Fleetinglife

[Stovo]

7 minutes ago, Willie said:

Did you ask where she heard it?

Perhaps. What are the arguments for Chinese invasion?

@Willie I didn't ask, I should have. These things spread, could just be a coworker or social media.

A successful invasion of Taiwan would be a big political win for the CCP, which should ensure they stay in power for the foreseeable. 

Militarily it breaks the island chain that the US has which effectively surrounds China in the Pacific, from Japan to the Philippines. This is also why China is making so many claims in the south China sea too, they are militarily surrounded and need a way out. 

Economically, they gain a powerhouse of well educated people and strong industries. 

It would also demonstrate Chinese strength Vs US weakness to the rest of the world. Soon you'd see Korea and Japan trying to forge new relationships and alliances with China out of fear of an attack. Lesser nations side with the powerful. 

It would be a huge blow to democracy, and a big win for authoritarianism. 

So yeah Taiwan matters a lot.

[Stovo]

@Fleetinglife thanks for sharing. It'll be interesting how things pan out. Some of the proposals sounds good in theory, for example lowering inequality, but let's see if they work in practice. 

Other policies sound downright regressive, especially all the extra authoritarian measures, censorship, and the whole toxic masculinity vibe. 

I feel like they are shooting themselves in the foot a bit, but let's see. 

[Willie]

29 minutes ago, Stovo said:

@Willie I didn't ask, I should have. These things spread, could just be a coworker or social media.

Yeah, well-educated people can still be gullible.

29 minutes ago, Stovo said:

@Willie 

A successful invasion of Taiwan would be a big political win for the CCP, which should ensure they stay in power for the foreseeable. 

I was unaware they were ever in danger of losing political power. It seems to me the CCP simply has a lust for more power.

29 minutes ago, Stovo said:

@Willie

Militarily it breaks the island chain that the US has which effectively surrounds China in the Pacific, from Japan to the Philippines. This is also why China is making so many claims in the south China sea too, they are militarily surrounded and need a way out. 

I was also unaware that there was a US military presence in the Philippines. So, I thought China already had an opening to the south.

29 minutes ago, Stovo said:

@Willie

Soon you'd see Korea and Japan trying to forge new relationships and alliances with China out of fear of an attack. Lesser nations side with the powerful. 

I do know about the US military presence in Japan and South Korea, though. So I doubt that would happen unless Biden wants to leave those countries also. 

30 minutes ago, Stovo said:

@Willie

Economically, they gain a powerhouse of well educated people and strong industries. 

I guess? I’m pretty sure Apple, General Motors, and Tesla all have more economic clout in China than Taiwan does. What if they were to stop doing business in China following an invasion of Taiwan?

30 minutes ago, Stovo said:

@Willie

It would also demonstrate Chinese strength Vs US weakness to the rest of the world.
It would be a huge blow to democracy, and a big win for authoritarianism. 

If you buy into that propaganda, sure. A massive nation invading an island immediately to the east isn’t really a big show of strength. It would be like the US invading Cuba now that the Cold War has faded into the past. Would anyone be impressed now? It would’ve been a big deal in the 60s.

I just don’t have a perspective that sees a CCP controlled Taiwan as this big awesome thing. ??‍♂️

[Leo Gura]

Sounds like a Stage Blue crackdown against Orange devilry.

[snowyowl]

Yup, we've been there too. Transition from blue to orange is a dangerous time for a country, there's all the extra power and wealth from industrialisation, but still within a blue totalitarian mindset. When my country (UK) was at this stage, we went around invading many countries and creating an empire. But now there's the benefit of hindsight to not repeat Europe's mistakes, if anyone wants to listen. But power is sooo intoxicating ... 

[Stovo]

42 minutes ago, snowyowl said:

Yup, we've been there too. Transition from blue to orange is a dangerous time for a country, there's all the extra power and wealth from industrialisation, but still within a blue totalitarian mindset. When my country (UK) was at this stage, we went around invading many countries and creating an empire. But now there's the benefit of hindsight to not repeat Europe's mistakes, if anyone wants to listen. But power is sooo intoxicating ... 

@snowyowl God save the Queen - says stage blue Stovo

[Stovo]

1 hour ago, Leo Gura said:

Sounds like a Stage Blue crackdown against Orange devilry.

@Leo Gura Don't you think it's a mix of good and bad? 

Some of it is very healthy, especially fighting the excesses of capitalism. But other things like limiting children's online gaming hours, banning western influences, punishing actors for not being masculine enough? 

Imo China has these authoritarian backlashes that are healthy in many ways, but which go too far. But maybe I'm looking at it from my own eyes, and not from the average Chinese person. Most Chinese people I speak to are broadly in support of their government, even if they don't agree with everything they do. 

[Lindsay]

Biden having us leave Afghanistan the way we did made us look like we abandoned our Afghan allies. In another video Winston and C-milk pointed out that China will use that to their advantage when they try to reclaim Taiwan. We also did nothing to help Hong Kong. I agree that we probably won’t have a direct war. I just worry. I wonder if the people in China actually believe the things in state media. Even though I hate Fox News I’m thankful they covered Biden’s leaked phone call to the Afghan president. No other news outlet covered it. I like Chris Wallace, Neal Cavuto, Harris Falcner, and sometimes Tucker Carlson. I wish Fox would scrap Laura Ingram, Sean Hannity, Jesse Waters, and Greg Gutfeld ?. But at least we have multiple perspectives and not just state media. I wish the news channels would pay closer attention to China. It bothers me that YouTube has been censoring online opinions through demonetization.
Money controls the narrative and that’s the American way.  Would be nice if after a certain point of wealth that the business would be turned into a co-op (Richard Wolff). 
 

if we did go to war with China, I guess it would be a passive aggressive war. 

[Leo Gura]

5 hours ago, Stovo said:

@Leo Gura Don't you think it's a mix of good and bad? 

Some of it is very healthy, especially fighting the excesses of capitalism. But other things like limiting children's online gaming hours, banning western influences, punishing actors for not being masculine enough? 

Of course it's a very mixed bag.

But I don't think what China is doing is sustainable. People will demand their rights and freedoms at some point.

Fighting capitalism is very tricky. I worry that China will go about it in a corrupt way, fighting only those forms of capitalism that serve to consolidate power for the greedy party elite. This has always been the problem with communism/socialism. The party members are full of shit and are as greedy as the worst capitalists but cloak themselves in socialist ideology, which is less honest than capitalism.

Their actions are not based on truthfulness, which always boomerangs. You cannot fake your level of development. It will backfire.

[Opo]

5 hours ago, Stovo said:

@Leo Gura Most Chinese people I speak to are broadly in support of their government, even if they don't agree with everything they do. 

Doesn't their social score drop if they criticize it? 

[Fleetinglife]

1 hour ago, Leo Gura said:

Fighting capitalism is very tricky. I worry that China will go about it in a corrupt way, fighting only those forms of capitalism that serve to consolidate power for the greedy party elite.

I hope it will at least send a message to the U.S. public to show them there is a political alternative to fighting their own capitalist plutocrats, and also send the message to the U.S. and other global plutocrats that they are not safe and insulated in their system globally and that this move by China might inspire movements in the developed first-world democracy countries to show that it is possible by the example of the most soon to be the biggest economic powerhouse in the world that this form of capitalism under which the plutocrats are the most ones which prospered is at its soon to be deathbed and should step aside to welcome a new form of an economic system - that takes its best from the Chinese one and saves the best from the Western one.

Edited September 4, 2021 by Fleetinglife

[alpha_ulrich]

Guys, can someone please explain to me if a war breaks out, how will India play a role?!