Why don't we give Taiwan nuclear weapons?

[Onecirrus]

It seems China is intent on being this centuries Nazi Germany and they will most likely start a third world war by invading Taiwan. I don't know why this sprawling economic superpower would want to risk its financial hegemony over a spit of land, occupied by people that hate them and succeeded from them over a century ago, and that is backed by the largest military force in human history. Seriously! They're already on track to fucking win this thing! Why not just leave Taiwan alone!?

But I digress. How do we prevent a third world war? By preventing the invasion of Taiwan! How do we prevent the invasion of Taiwan? By providing Taiwan a nuclear arsenal! They are one of the more developed countries in the world and probably more trustworthy than China to have a nuclear arsenal. Sure, China will have a hissy fit, but what could they really do to stop this? Taiwan is an independent nation no matter what China says and they have the right to defend themselves! I don't think anyone is dumb enough to invade a country with an operational nuclear arsenal, that would be incredibly fucking stupid because even if you defeat they're military, they will be left with no choice but to go down swinging and they'll probably glass your capital while doing so.

 

[Onecirrus]

@Husseinisdoingfine

[Willie]

Nuclear proliferation is not the answer, no matter how well-intentioned. Someone saying that every nation has the right to nuclear weapons for self-defense is like the NRA saying every American should have guns for self-defense. And that’s even assuming everyone agrees that Taiwan is a sovereign nation.

[kieranperez]

1 hour ago, Onecirrus said:

How do we prevent a third world war?

It's probably going to happen and as far as I can there's nothing going that's going to stop it. As it must be. If it's going to happen, it's going to happen. As a great Zen master I heard once say when asked about change, "We change when we have to." China isn't some separate isolated cause to any upcoming world war. This has been building for several decades now and, like I already said, as far as I'm concerned, nothing is going to stop it from happening. The mistakes that were made in history usually repeats on higher level when the generation that made them and learned from them has died off. There is no lever to be found as far as controlling things. There is no center of control. 

[FoolsGold]

because it's better to start a proxy war in Xinjiang to distract China than to give weapons to an island nation

[Milos Uzelac]

That would make a reverse Cuban missile crisis situation in the world, which China could answer simply by arming some country they have foothold in, they could actually try to pull this off in Europe like arming my country Serbia for example but even this to me seems highly unlikely. There is strong possibility and no guarantee that if such thing would be attempted that the plane carrying it or the sub wouldn't be shot down or sinked by SAM missile launched from one's of China's man-made reef islands or runways or a sub with special torpedo system which would in turn cause an unprecedented international crisis not seen since the Cold War where urgently there would be a compromise needed and a backing down of arms pursuits, similar what happened with Cuba and America and Turkey and the USSR, would be required in order to avoid the risk of greatest war crime and genocide since the nuking of Japan in WWII. Or it might just go as in the case of North Korea, South Korea and China but I as well see that as too much of prefect conditions and opportune moments scenario that has no guarantees to be carried out as a successful operation. 

That's my take of why I see this as a bad idea and of a risky gambling move in terms of the international consequences not to mention as someone has already in the comments, that this would set a really bad trend in terms of a revival or demand for nuclear proliferation worldwide by other countries which would create a much less safer, risk and fear filled and unstable global environment with everyone dreading mutually assured destruction from them and their neighbours. 

Edited July 8, 2021 by Milos Uzelac

[Blackhawk]

If Taiwan would have nuclear weapons, it would prevent war.

Apparently USA doesn't let Taiwan get nukes. Not sure why.

[Milos Uzelac]

During the Cold War, the United States deployed nuclear weapons on Taiwan as part of the United States Taiwan Defense Command. In 1972, United States president Richard Nixon ordered nuclear weapons to be removed from Taiwan and this was implemented by 1974. Nuclear weapons are known to have been stored at Tainan Air Force Base.

The development of nuclear weapons by Taiwan has been a contentious issue, as it had been triggered by the People's Republic of China first nuclear test in 1964. The United States, hoping to avoid escalating tensions in the Taiwan Strait, has continually opposed arming Taiwan with nuclear weapons after 1979. Accordingly, Taiwan adheres to the principles of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and has stated that it does not intend to produce nuclear weapons, on an official basis. Past nuclear research by Taiwan makes it a "threshold" nuclear state.

During the 1970s, Taiwan had an active program to produce plutonium using heavy water reactors. However, after the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) found evidence of Taiwan's efforts to produce weapons-grade plutonium, Taiwan agreed in September 1976 under U.S. pressure to dismantle its nuclear weapons program. A study by the Mitre Corporation in 1977, included Taiwan in a list of "insecure" nuclear threshold states—states with the technical capability to develop nuclear weapons and the security motivations to seriously contemplate such an option. The other states were Israel, South Africa, South Korea, and Yugoslavia. U.S. intelligence also believed that Taiwan had designed devices suitable for nuclear testing. In 1980 the Taiwanese contracted for 4,000 tons of uranium metal from South Africa although it is not known how much of this order was ever delivered.

The secret nuclear weapon program was revealed after the 1987 Lieyu massacre, when Colonel Chang Hsien-yi Deputy Director of Nuclear Research at INER, who was secretly working for the CIA, defected to the U.S. in December 1987 and produced a cache of incriminating documents. General Hau Pei-tsun claimed that scientists in Taiwan had already produced a controlled nuclear reaction. Under pressure from the U.S., the program was halted. A study into the secret program concluded that at the time of Chang's defection, Taiwan was one or two years away from being able to complete a deliverable weapon. Chang claims that Madame Chiang Kai Shek and military officials loyal to her had expedited the development of nuclear weapons and even set up a parallel chain of command to further their agenda. In 1987 the warhead design had a diameter of 60-70cm with casing and a weight of 900kg meaning that further miniaturization would have been needed to optimize the weapon for delivery.

The Sky Horse ballistic missile system was developed in the late 1970s and early 1980s before a combination of pressure from American President Ronald Reagan and internal competition from anti-ballistic missile development programs ended the program in 1982. Faced with an inability to field their desired delivery system planners turned to alternatives. 

The secondary delivery vehicle was the AIDC F-CK-1 Ching-kuo, then in development. Weapons designers at CSIST (now NCSIST) were instructed to design the nuclear weapon to fit within the dimensions of the F-CK-1’s centerline drop tank (~50cm diameter). Modifications to the aircraft would have been required for it to obtain the desired 1,000km range (especially without the centerline drop tank available). The F-CK-1 would not have been able to fulfill the nuclear strike mission until mid-1989 at the very earliest. Early designs called for an unpowered gravity bomb.

Since the end of the nuclear weapons program the “Nuclear Card” has played an important part in Taiwan's relationship with both the United States and China.

During the 1995–1996 Taiwan Strait crisis, then President of Taiwan, Lee Teng-hui, proposed to reactivate the program, but toned down the rhetoric a few days later, saying that although Taiwan was nuclear latent, it "will definitely not" produce nuclear weapons.

There is no evidence that Taiwan possesses any nuclear weapons or any programs to produce them, although it does have the advanced technological ability necessary to develop nuclear weapons as well as the high-tech ability to enrich uranium or process plutonium. Taiwan's nuclear power plants use imported enriched uranium and are subject to IAEA inspections.

Taiwan theoretically has the potential to develop nuclear weapons from domestic monazite reserves, and this potential was explored by the military in 1951-1952. However, the monazite's thorium content was deemed too low to justify recovering, and the military turned to friendly foreign sources instead.

 The Republic of China ratified the Geneva Protocol on August 7, 1929, and the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in 1970, and Taiwan considers itself bound by both. Following UN General Assembly Resolution 2758 (1971) the United Nations recognizes the People's Republic of China and does not recognize Taiwan as a sovereign state with the legal ability to join international treaties. Because of its controversial political status, Taiwan has not been allowed to join either the Biological Weapons Convention or the Chemical Weapons Convention, but it has stated that it will abide by both treaties nevertheless. In addition, Taiwan has stated that it will continue to abide by the NPT, notwithstanding Resolution 2758. Taiwan was one of the original members of the NPT in 1968. After the People’s Republic of China replaced Taiwan at the United Nations in 1971, in effect Taiwan ceased to be active as a participating party to the official NPT activities. However, it signed a trilateral agreement with the United States and the IAEA in 1971 stating that it would continue to abide by the terms of the NPT as a ratification party. While not a member of the IAEA, Taiwan does continue to subscribe to the IAEA safeguards under two agreements, INFCIRC/133 and INFCIRC/158.

- In other words if they start again to develop it now and break these treaties where they are signatories then it might lead to severe international crisis and a casus belli for PRC. 

[DocWatts]

Try to imagine how policymakers in the United States would react if a rival power started supplying nuclear weapons to an island just off our coast.

Only you don't have to imagine it, because this scenario actually happened during the Cuban Missile Crisis, where the Soviet Union imported nuclear missiles in to Cuba to prevent an invasion of the island from the United States, bringing the world dangerously close to a nuclear war (something that was only narrowly avoided through the efforts of both Kruschev and JFK).

Giving nuclear weapons to Taiwan is a terrible idea, and a classic case of not learning from history.

 

[Gesundheit2]

Hold on, I'll call my pal Kim instead and order him to do that.

But wait, he's not a U.S. ally.

Also, what others have said.

Sorry, can't help you there.

Edited July 8, 2021 by Gesundheit2

[snowyowl]

The logic of who is and isn't "allowed" to have nuclear weapons is rather baffling. It seems the main arbiters are the most heavily nuclear armed powers, hypocritically telling other countries not to get them. If you think proliferation is bad, then why not practice what you preach and disarm yourself? Err, because the nuclear deterrent works pretty well for them. As long as no-one actually uses them of course. It's a tense balancing act between geo-political manoevering and risk management. 

Edited July 8, 2021 by snowyowl

[Blackhawk]

11 hours ago, DocWatts said:

Try to imagine how policymakers in the United States would react if a rival power started supplying nuclear weapons to an island just off our coast.

Only you don't have to imagine it, because this scenario actually happened during the Cuban Missile Crisis, where the Soviet Union imported nuclear missiles in to Cuba to prevent an invasion of the island from the United States, bringing the world dangerously close to a nuclear war (something that was only narrowly avoided through the efforts of both Kruschev and JFK).

Giving nuclear weapons to Taiwan is a terrible idea, and a classic case of not learning from history.

USA shouldn't give them nukes, but Taiwan should get nukes.

[Gianna]

On 7/7/2021 at 5:12 PM, Onecirrus said:

How do we prevent the invasion of Taiwan? By providing Taiwan a nuclear arsenal!

I'm not sure this would 100% prevent the invasion of Taiwan.