Iraq Will Fall To Ba'th Or/And ISIS Same Way Afghanistan Is Falling To Taliban Again

[Mesopotamian]

Have you ever considered?

The new international order that's imposed by the allies after WWII is not compatible with nations that are less developed on the spiral, yet there were much efforts to enforce this system through the UN and also through multiple wars, like the wars on Afghanistan and Iraq.

Many would blame the US for invading countries, but what else it is supposed to do? leave some pockets here and there to become safe haven for those who will use all available resources to destabilize its endeared international order?

Humanity needs to reach to a time where we can let go of this utopian stage-orange vision of sovereign countries altogether, cuz it is not working! Here we have Afghanistan, and it is ready to fall back to Taliban the moment the last US soldier leaves, and the US is now totally OK with that. They called for negotiations with Taliban in Doha in order to facilitate the transfer of power, cause what the heck? they're going to have control anyway!

I expect a similar fate when the US let go of Iraq, they could call the Ba'th party (Saddam's party) or ISIS in order to have talks in Doha before they withdraw their forces.

Nations of countries like Iraq or Afghanistan are truly incompatible with international order, they are still entrenched in stage-blue religious thinking and values, and can't begin to fathom cooperation that's not based on the principles of their religions.

There's clear dissonance between their secular government, and the rest of the nation, in which the first tries its best to run a country like any government would do, but the people don't believe in what their government is doing, and they always measure things against the teachings of religions, starting from internal affairs, and ending with the country's relation with the rest of the world.

At some point, the government will ultimately fail, or the forces that's supporting it (The international presence in Iraq for example) will get out and leave things behind, what will happen then?

Shiite of Iraq, now backed by the US are refusing to modernize and let go of their stage-blue-purple mentality, and they're kind of right about that, cuz why would they want to let go of this while the international forces are baby-sitting them?

Edited July 4, 2021 by Mesopotamian

[Gesundheit2]

Why would the USA leave Iraq? Lots of easy oil and geopolitical interests to give up so easily.

[Bojan V]

@Husseinisdoingfine

5 hours ago, Husseinisdoingfine said:

Your mind is stuck on this issue, almost every week you come into the politics sub forum to complain about Iraq, international law, etc...

It is important to talk about this issues becose people there are suffering. Can you imagine how it is for children, woman and lgbt people in Afghanistan and Iraq who are opressed, abused and often killed?

When people are writing about Usa it is ok and nobody is complaining about that. But when people are writing about other countries, then sudenly their mind is stuck on this issue?!

There are other countries on the planet Earth other then Usa and this forum is a fine place to talk about them.

[Mesopotamian]

13 hours ago, Gesundheit2 said:

Why would the USA leave Iraq? Lots of easy oil and geopolitical interests to give up so easily.

They might do it on a whim. Iraq is not modernizing after all, and the coast of keeping it looks like standing up on its feat has its toll.

[Mesopotamian]

18 hours ago, Husseinisdoingfine said:

Your mind is stuck on this issue, almost every week you come into the politics sub forum to complain about Iraq, international law, etc...

Why is there Someone who's signature is the Mmotto of Islam within this forum ?

[RareGodzilla]

22 hours ago, Husseinisdoingfine said:

Your mind is stuck on this issue, almost every week you come into the politics sub forum to complain about Iraq, international law, etc...

He lives in Iraq. We westerners are spoiled. Weather you have Trump or Biden your power will be on, you will have food and water, the police will be there to protect your property etc. For him a radical political change like Isis takeover would mean that the power will no longer be working or that he might even get killed by radical Islamists. Being apolitical is a 1st world privilege. 

 

[Gesundheit2]

7 hours ago, Mesopotamian said:

They might do it on a whim.

They will leave Iraq when they leave the Arabian gulf.

8 hours ago, Mesopotamian said:

Iraq is not modernizing after all

Parts of it are.

[Milos Uzelac]

On 04/07/2021 at 9:03 AM, Mesopotamian said:

I expect a similar fate when the US let go of Iraq, they could call the Ba'th party party (Saddam's party) or ISIS in order to have talks in Doha before they withdraw their forces.

How is that even a possibility, given the fact that the Ba'th Party hierarchy, as far I know, has been obliterated and purged from the countries administration system in the aftermath of the invasion and occupation of Iraq and that ISIS has been fairly wiped out from large parts of the Middle East up until this point and is fairly crippled and enjoys, I assume, fringe support in some desolate areas of Iraq. Do they enjoy any support from a major part of the public and population in Iraq or have they been pushed to the margins and enjoy only some fringe extremist support in some of the more desolated areas. 

On 04/07/2021 at 9:03 AM, Mesopotamian said:

The new international order that's imposed by the allies after WWII is not compatible with nations that are less developed on the spiral, yet there were much efforts to enforce this system through the UN and also through multiple wars, like the wars on Afghanistan and Iraq.

Why is it incompatible and why are Iraq and Afghanistan the exceptions?

I mean I would argue that the neighbourhood countries that we have here on the Balkans like 'Kosovo' and Albania are not as well that much advanced on the spiral, yet they comply with every single thing that the U. S. and the 'rules based international order' wants from them. They celebrate and simp for the Americans as liberators and their protectors from the danger of Serbian violent mini imperialism, foreign subjugation and occupation, ethnic cleansing and cultural genocide directed towards them yet they celebrate and revere the foreign occupiers on their land as their saviours and beg for them to keep their military bases and large compounds there in Kosovo as measure to deteer possible future Sebian agression and pretensions in the region. In other words, they live in a world where the foreign occupation and colonisation of their land by imperial forces and international coalitions is permissible as long as it keeps them safe from an imagined external aggressor and threat that will if given the chance do them what it did to them during the ethnic cleansings and state violence of the 90's. 90% of Kosovar Albanians identify themselves as Muslims and they are, I would argue, not much more advanced then average Iraqis or Afghans on the spiral in terms of their affiliations, loyalties and groupings based on religion and their ethnic identity as a single ancient people no matter their faith yet they cooperate and celebrate the presence of international and U. S. forces on their soil, even as U. S. companies, with some of the U. S. generals that participated in the NATO intervention in Kosovo in the 99's sitting on the boards of those companies and owning shares in them, exploit without oversight and regulation from the Kosovar state administration the countries rich mineral resources and deposits. 

On 04/07/2021 at 9:03 AM, Mesopotamian said:

Many would blame the US for invading countries, but what else it is supposed to do? leave some pockets here and there to become safe haven for those who will use all available resources to destabilize its endeared international order?

Again why does it only intervene and invade countries in countries which governments are not alligned with interest or pose a threat to their interests that can't match the U. S. militarily and defend themselves from a bombing campaign or a ground invasion while countries like North Korea, who are also on the lists of threats to the 'international rules based order', are given a free pass on the possibility of a direct intervention because they have nukes or Iran because they are almost impossible to invade militarily without causing huge casualties and damages to the U. S. militarily and in terms of resources spent and sustainability of the operation. Hence the model today is to turn to economic sanctions as way of economic warfare against those countries. 

And I heard that, according to some estimates, that because of the U.S. economic sanctions on Iraq after the Gulf War in the 1990's and the direct bombing and ground forces invasion of Iraq since 2003, that one in five Iraqis have someone in their family who was killed because of the consequences and aftermath of these events. 

On 04/07/2021 at 9:03 AM, Mesopotamian said:

Nations of countries like Iraq or Afghanistan are truly incompatible with international order, they are still entrenched in stage-blue religious thinking and values, and can't begin to fathom cooperation that's not based on the principles of their religions.

Why are those two nations incompatible, while Albanian Kosovars are, who are at roughly the same stage of development and of group affiliation and identity and also have a foreign occupying forces on their land? 

On 04/07/2021 at 9:03 AM, Mesopotamian said:

There's clear dissonance between their secular government, and the rest of the nation, in which the first tries its best to run a country like any government would do, but the people don't believe in what their government is doing, and they always measure things against the teachings of religions, starting from internal affairs, and ending with the country's relation with the rest of the world.

Similar thing was happening in Kosovo up until the recent elections and now there is a government in power there that, yes on the one hand relies on the U. S. in order to lobby and advocate internationally for Kosovos independence and recognition as a separate country by other nations worldwide and yet on the other hand plays with the idea from time to time that in the distant future Albanian Kosovars might reunite and join together in a union with their people's in Albania to form one larger Albanian country based on ethnic lines and borders on Albanian large scattered demographics across different countries in the Western Balkans, since they mostly, first and foremostly, identify as Albanian ethnically and then only in second place as Muslim by religion. So stage blue values in vision and in practice and yet the U. S. and the EU has given a greenlight to this government that plays with this idea, even only in the future. 

On 04/07/2021 at 9:03 AM, Mesopotamian said:

will get out and leave things behind, what will happen then?

Who knows? What about letting the Iraqi people decide on the future of their countries trajectory without foreign interference? 

On 04/07/2021 at 9:03 AM, Mesopotamian said:

Shiite of Iraq, now backed by the US are refusing to modernize and let go of their stage-blue-purple mentality, and they're kind of right about that, cuz why would they want to let go of this while the international forces are baby-sitting them?

What do you mean by modernizing? You mean shedding their religious, ethnic and cultural identities and their preferences to a government corresponding with the values of those as such or something else? A country can be modernized politically, economically, technologically and scientifically without shedding a part of their religious identity and traditional values and models of governance as per the example of the Emirates and Saudi Arabia or even Lebanon for that matter which is more diverse in terms of religions and ethnicity and I would argue corresponds more with the conditions and situation of Iraq than those two first mentioned examples. 

Edited July 6, 2021 by Milos Uzelac

[Gesundheit2]

6 hours ago, Milos Uzelac said:

Why are those two nations incompatible, while Albanian Kosovars are, who are at roughly the same stage of development and of group affiliation and identity and also have a foreign occupying forces on their land?

• Different economical systems.
• Different cultures/religious beliefs.
• Different levels of nationalism/patriotism.
• Different geopolitics.
• Different demographics, especially the general population numbers.

Edited July 6, 2021 by Gesundheit2

[Mesopotamian]

16 hours ago, Gesundheit2 said:

Parts of it are.

No not at all, at least not according to a certain speed, don't fool yourself.

[Mesopotamian]

9 hours ago, Milos Uzelac said:

How is that even a possibility, given the fact that the Ba'th Party hierarchy, as far I know, has been obliterated and purged from the countries administration system in the aftermath of the invasion and occupation of Iraq and that ISIS has been fairly wiped out from large parts of the Middle East up until this point and is fairly crippled and enjoys,

The enormous amount of force I believe which has been used against ISIS and AL-Ba'th made them go underground or disappear from the scene, also ISIS, and with the discontent of Iraqi people with how their country turned out to be (loads of corruption and disastrous infrastructure) the old forces might get revived in no time. At least the public will stand still when the government that every Iraqi hates (except me) will go down the drainage and collapse.

 

9 hours ago, Milos Uzelac said:

Why is it incompatible and why are Iraq and Afghanistan the exceptions?

The mindsets of the general public is fucked up in Iraq, an average citezen has this utopian image of his country, being the best, the greatest the one who has thousands of years of civilazations, "We" as they claim "have taught the world how to read and write", "but then came this imperialistic America, criminal state, and spread its evil on the world, they bombed Hiroshima, and fought Vietnam, and now they are sabotaging our country". "They must be the source of all evil, and we have to fight them, cause the free nations of the world will be victorious at the end!" !!! "Because God is with us, the right is with us"

This is how they think! there's no way they're changing their mind and seeing any different truth. Since that Iraq is a miserable place today, they blame the US for everything, and they're demanding that it ends its presence here, even though the last time this happened, ISIS sweeped the country over a night.

9 hours ago, Milos Uzelac said:

And I heard that, according to some estimates, that because of the U.S. economic sanctions on Iraq after the Gulf War in the 1990's and the direct bombing and ground forces invasion of Iraq since 2003, that one in five Iraqis have someone in their family who was killed because of the consequences and aftermath of these events. 

Iraq is a fake country, I believe this will continue to happen unless someone invades and completely subdue Iraqi nation to its knees, like how it is done with Japan.

Iraq has never gained independence itself, and cannot run itself by itself, cannot stay afloat.

Iraq is not even a country, is it a country where its cities are isolated with hundreds of checkpoints? It is not a country I am telling you. There's no freedom of movement within the country, there's no freedom at all

Iraq is like North Korea, but with the exception that there's internet access, but then you have to spend huge energy, and daily hundreds of people dying in order to keep it looks like functioning.

There are almost 10000 civilian died in the operation of regaining Mosul according to Amnesty International

https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2017/12/iraq-new-reports-place-mosul-civilian-death-toll-at-more-than-ten-times-official-estimates/

People are dying everyday in order to keep the utterly silly idea of a country up and running, what do you know about the high cost?

I am telling you, the moment the US goes out, Iraq will be dismantled , and right now, it is a prolonged suffering for its people, who are pushing against any attempt to make them join the international community.

9 hours ago, Milos Uzelac said:

Why are those two nations incompatible, while Albanian Kosovars are, who are at roughly the same stage of development and of group affiliation and identity and also have a foreign occupying forces on their land? 

Iraqi nation is spoiled, they think they are kings, or sons of kings, and they are so important that the whole world is conspiring against their "golden" country, they feel very entiteled and they think they are the best nation of the world. The American presence or protection has spoiled us. When someone sees that America has a presence here, they stop taking security seriously, and in fact, when things go wrong, they accuse America, the one with the gun.

Many believe that America has created ISIS and Alqaeda and unleashed them in Iraq, and almost 100% Iraqis think that Hillary Clinton has announced that America has created ISIS, what's the chance of a fucked up nations who's its wise men think like this to survive the real ISIS when they are left alone? Chances is zero they survive it, and that's what happened on 2014 after America withdrew its forces.

9 hours ago, Milos Uzelac said:

Who knows? What about letting the Iraqi people decide on the future of their countries trajectory without foreign interference? 

They can't decide nothing, completely fucked up mindsets, spoiled, entitled, even lost and paralyzed. ISIS took 1/3 of Iraq within a week in 2014 with very advanced propaganda and war psychology plans, and from that date until now, the stupid Iraqi nation, along with its leaders and politicians think that killing and executing, and restraining freedoms is the way to go. Their best pride moment is when the Shiite Imame ordered the formation of a new popular mobilization forces, thinking that in numbers, they're going to prevail.

9 hours ago, Milos Uzelac said:

What do you mean by modernizing? You mean shedding their religious, ethnic and cultural identities and their preferences to a government corresponding with the values of those as such or something else? A country can be modernized politically, economically, technologically and scientifically without shedding a part of their religious identity and traditional values and models of governance as per the example of the Emirates and Saudi Arabia or even Lebanon for that matter which is more diverse in terms of religions and ethnicity and I would argue corresponds more with the conditions and situation of Iraq than those two first mentioned examples. 

The Shiite are lower actually on the scale of Spiral Dynamics, they are like stage-purple and stage-red

Shiite are lower than Sunnis, cause they have these elements of believing in multiple Imams, sort of multiple Gods, and also their rituals are crazy purple. In that sense, the Saudi and Emarati already free of stage Red-Purple mentality.

[FoolsGold]

On 7/5/2021 at 5:11 PM, Husseinisdoingfine said:

Because there is no God but God ☝?

No. because you're a butthurt crybaby strongly attached to your dogmas/religious identity.

There is no God AND no God. The sooner you realize it, the better for your mind.

Go visit Middle East sometime, see the people and their behavior. Don't just talk to them, see what they do, how they behave, how they act and interact with people around them. All the fairy-tale in the your head will crumble.

[Mesopotamian]

36 minutes ago, Husseinisdoingfine said:

A great example of this is how George Bush disbanded the Iraqi army. Millions of Iraqi soldiers were left unemployed, vengeful at the United States, and with Iraqi military training an equipment. Those Iraqi soldiers would later form ISIS. 

What a stupid idea to expect  defeated generals to come back and shake hands with their conquer, that's some of the most stupid shit I've ever heard in my life, it hasn't happen in history before.

 

 

[Leo Gura]

Because it is not possible to force a people to develop at the point of a gun.

Iraq and Afghanistan must live out their developmental level and suffer the natural consequences until such time that lessons are learned and the stage is exhausted.

You can't force a mother to make a baby in 4 months by holding a gun to her head. It takes 9 months, and the more you push her the longer it might take.

The Taliban is what Afghanistan is suited for. At least for now. Until they grow up.

This is why it is wise not to meddle in the affairs of others. Let the Afghans sort themselves out.

[Arcangelo]

On 7/5/2021 at 3:50 AM, Mesopotamian said:

Why is there Someone who's signature is the Mmotto of Islam within this forum ?

Because that someone is stuck in stage blue.

[Milos Uzelac]

7 hours ago, Gesundheit2 said:

• Different economical systems.

Both countries are very rich in natural resources, Iraq in oil, Kosovo in mineral resources such as lignite totaling 12.5 billion tonnes, which it claims are the second largest in Europe and fifth largest in the world.

Also:

The Trepča Mines (Albanian: Miniera e Trepçës, Serbian: Рудник Трепча / Rudnik Trepča) is a large industrial complex in Kosovo, located 9 km (5.6 mi) northeast of Mitrovica. The mine is located on the southern slopes of the Kopaonik mountain, between the peaks of Crni Vrh (1,364 m (4,475 ft)) and Majdan 1,268 m (4,160 ft), and it is Europe's largest lead-zinc and silver ore mine.

Kosovo was historically a mining district for the former Yugoslavia. The industrial complex Trepça in Mitrovica "was the largest mining operation in the former Yugoslavia". During the time of Yugoslavia, Kosovo possessed 50% of all of Yugoslavia's nickel reserves, 36% of lignite, 48% of lead and zinc reserves, 47% of the magnesium reserves, and 32.4% of kaolinite reserves. During this time, mining was Kosovo's growth engine; however, the sector faced a decline from the 1990s.

Kosovo's main mineral resources are: lead, zinc, silver, nickel, cobalt, chrome, lignite, copper, bauxite, magnesium, iron, and several industrial minerals such as: kaolin, bentonite, quartz, halloysite, diatomite, garnet, asbestos, and leucites. Mineral resources in Kosovo are estimated to be worth 13.5 billion euros, based on a survey by the Directorate for Mines and Minerals and the World Bank, from which 6.5 billion euros are attributed to the Mine in Sibofc alone, 3 billion to Trepča, 2 billion to Ferronikel and another 2 billion to other resources across Kosovo. Although the former director for mines and minerals, Hengstmann, claimed of this value, the expert for mines, Adil Januzi claimed that Kosovo's natural resources are of even higher value since Kosovo possesses the only lignite of over 13 billion tonnes. The industrial complex Trepča alone possesses more than 60 mineral species that have been identified thus far.

7 hours ago, Gesundheit2 said:

Different cultures/religious beliefs.

Both are Muslim majority countries. Though Iraq has a lot of religious sectarianisms such as the Sunni and Shia split and ethnic such as with the Kurds and Iraqis, while the Kosovars are only Sunni and only ethnic splits are the Serb minority which lives in the north which only takes up 4% of the population. A number of Sunni fundamentalists and salafist Albanians, which yes do exist in the region and are particularly from Northern Macedonia, gathered recruits and went to the Middle East to join ISIS in the 'lesser jihad' in significant numbers from 2014 to 2018 and even tried to carry out terrorist suicide bomb attacks on American military bases in the region. I have reports from this time period to back this up.

Also, the OP wrote in his response to me in this thread that regular Iraqis considered themselves ancient people and the descendants of the ancient Mesopotamians and Babylonians, well so do the Albanians! They identify their ethnic descendants as the ancient paleo-Balkan tribes who settled the Balkan territories in the 4th century BC in the times even before when it was made up of Roman provinces and before the Slav migration and settlements in the 6th century such as the Dardanians, the Illyrians, and the Thracians.  

Papazoglu 1978, p. 131

''the Dardanians ... living in the frontiers of the Illyrian and the Thracian worlds retained their individuality and, alone among the peoples of that region, succeeded in maintaining themselves as an ethnic unity even when they were militarily and politically subjected by the Roman arms [...] and when, towards the end of the ancient world, the Balkans were involved in far-reaching ethnic perturbations, the Dardanians, of all the Central Balkan tribes, played the greatest part in the genesis of the new peoples who took the place of the old''.

7 hours ago, Gesundheit2 said:

Different levels of nationalism/patriotism.

The same as I mentioned above and as the OP stated about Iraqis and I would add Afghans. All of these peoples considered themselves ancient and primordial groups that have settled on these lands for millennia and connect their ancestry back to some pre-BC tribes or civilizations. Their nationalism/patriotism both revolves around that they settled this land from ancient times and that no foreign power has a right to occupy them or tell them how to organize and live on their land, except for the Kosovo Albanians who use the American and international presence as a shield to protect themselves from would-be Serb pretensions on the territory.

8 hours ago, Gesundheit2 said:

Different geopolitics.

Very similar geopolitics I would argue. Both countries have a foreign military presence on their soil that as a cost of maintenance and sustainability of itself exploits the countries rich natural resources deposits with their own multinational companies or shareholders in some domestic companies to enrich the shareholders from those countries which companies that benefit from the foreign military presence and occupation, and that also in the case of America and some other NATO member countries happen to be politicians that pushed for the invasion and officers and generals that carried it out. 

 

8 hours ago, Gesundheit2 said:

Different demographics, especially the general population numbers.

Yes, the population of Kosovo has a smaller population than the population of Iraq of 38 million. However, both countries are majority Muslim, where 95-98% of the population of Iraq is Muslim and 94% of the population of Kosovo is Muslim. Both have small ethnic minority groups in their country, the Iraqis are majority Arab making up 75 to 80% of the country's total population while the Kurds and Turkmen make up the rest. In Kosovo, the Kosovar Albanians make up 94% of the total population while Servs make up 4%. Both countries have a fairly young population with an average age of 20-34 according to some demographics statistics.

[Milos Uzelac]

2 hours ago, Husseinisdoingfine said:

and established an Iranian Monarchy.

It is reported that the Shah of Iran after he was exiled after the Islamic revolution in 1979, reportedly looted one billion dollars from the country.

[Hello from Russia]

1 hour ago, Leo Gura said:

You can't force a mother to make a baby in 4 months by holding a gun to her head. It takes 9 months, and the more you push her the longer it might take.

Not sure about that one . They say if a woman is very stressed out, she might have a premature birthing at 7-6 months or so

[Gesundheit2]

@Milos Uzelac Thank you for the detailed overview.

[Milos Uzelac]

8 minutes ago, Gesundheit2 said:

@Milos Uzelac Thank you for the detailed overview.

Thanks for your questions and remarks as well.  Tried my best to explain how I myself see the detailed comparisons between the two countries' situations and positions in the world and geopolitically.