Will the GERD provoke a water war?

[ArcticGong]

Ethiopia is among the poorest nation in the world, she is battling a possible ethnic cleansing in the Tigray region. There is a lot of ethnic tension domestically. Internationally is Ethiopia now in a conflict with downstream Sudan and Egypt about filling a dam. Honestly, I'm not aware of all the details, both Sudan and Egypt are pretty hostile to The Grand Renaissance Dam, with great reason. Egypt relies on the Nile for 90% of its freshwater supplies from the Nile, something that might be affected by GERD. The blue Nile supports 80 percent of the water before it joins into one stream. The dam will make Ethiopia a sufficient energy producer, and an energy exporter. Energy desperately needed to raise its country out of poverty.  The dam is a blessing for Ethiopia and potentially detrimental for Sudan and Egypt. Furthermore, Ethiopia has borrowed a lot of money from China to fund a couple of infrastructural projects. Money  Ethiopia hopes to get back through supplying its country with much-needed energy. Does anyone have any good spiral suggestions for averting the likelihood of our first large water war? 

 

[lina]

It's unlikely mainly because dictators of Egypt and Sudan are mere puppets and they don't actually make moves to protect the interests for their people unless the big powers approves, which didn't happen because China for ex won't let something like the destruction of the Gerd take place since all the investments they make.. The Gerd purpose is nothing more than to seize political power over the region not so much to make Energy... another situation where money and greed are taking lead into destroying nature and the lives of poor people. 

[lina]

The solution is simply to stop building dams over rivers and generate electricity through other means that doesn't involve destruction 

[ArcticGong]

@lina Is it not possible that the Gerd is both political and practical? All the sources I've checked suggest that the dame will cover Ethiopia's energy needs and make them an energy exporter. How would a country like Ethiopia otherwise generate electricity? One need only to look at night satellite photos of Sub-Africa to see how little environmental impact it currently makes, it barely has any lit-up places. This will sound bad but, I don't think that the poorest nations on earth should lead environmental development.  

[lina]

There are other ways to generate electricity such as maybe solar/wind energy? Also Egypt offered to pay for electricity generation and Ethiopia refused. which makes Ethiopia's intention clear. one needs to think of of the pros and cons of something before taking a step into it and the cons of this dam is the devastation for the entire ecosystem in Sudan and Egypt around the Nile, the starvation of millions of people, the rise of new epidemic and not to mention turning your neighbors into enemies. 

[ArcticGong]

@lina Egypt dammed the Nile in Aswan too. Come on, have any countries in the world today satisfied their energy needs with those renewables? Dams are at the moment is our safest bet for a reliable energy source. I haven't read about Egypt's counteroffer to help electrify Ethiopia. I would definitely read that if you could give me a reliable source? 

[lina]

By building Aswan dam, Egypt didn't block the water flow to any other people or country. the main purpose in building that dam was to control the flood damage, the generation of electricity was just an added benefit not the purpose. 

Yes countries like Sweden, Germany, Scotland, Denmark, Uruguay, Kenya all depend on renewables check this link: https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/11-countries-leading-the-charge-on-renewable-energy/ 

Actually dams are never a "safe" bet, any dams are at risk of damage and destruction, imagine what would happen to millions of people if for any natural reason this dam collapsed ? Is creating that risk really worth the electricity that could be generated through other ways? 

also Ethiopia has several rivers, couldn't they make another dam that wouldn't directly cut water? why did they choose to build it as far as possible right behind the borders? 

I tried to look up the source that Egypt offered to pay but couldn't find anything in English, (maybe it wasn't accurate) buti did find a link that shows that Egypt did offer other projects so Ethiopia doesn't fill the dam quickly without arrangement and even till this moment Ethiopia is going it's own way disregarding other countries concerns. https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2020/07/egypt-electricity-grid-project-ethiopia-sudan-nile-dam.html

[Zeroguy]

Expectwar btw Ethiopia and Egypt in less then 10 years. 

[ArcticGong]

@lina
Those countries you've mentioned are maybe transitioning to renewables, but they are far from covering their needs with renewables. Sweden is relying heavily on hydros and thus proving my point. A significant chunk of Kenya barely has any electricity. Germany and Scotland are relying mostly on fossil fuels and nuclear energy. Solving the challenge of energy is difficult for any country in the world. I doubt that Ethiopia's agenda with damming is to kill millions of people.
Sudan has also dammed The Nile close to Khartoum. All your concerns could be leveled at Sudan as well. 
Egypt has objected to every aspect of the GERD since its inception. I agree with you that filling it should be discussed.  
The question below is, however, a good question. 

2 hours ago, lina said:

also Ethiopia has several rivers, couldn't they make another dam that wouldn't directly cut water? why did they choose to build it as far as possible right behind the borders? 

 

[lina]

my point is that there are efficient solutions on the table for Ethiopia if they really need electricity,  but they chose the easy way out disregarding other's lives... to sudan and egypt it's a matter of life and death to Ethiopia it's a matter of convenience.. that's why this is greedy and selfish and actually stupid because they opened the door to a never-ending conflict 

Edited May 27, 2021 by lina

[lina]

Also the land that Ethiopia build the dam is, is actually a location of dispute, Sudan says it belongs to a Sudanese tribe living there, so they really opened a can of worms

[ArcticGong]

@lina of course they need electricity, it is one of the poorest nations on earth? They provide electricity to a fraction of their population. Egypt on the other hand has one of the largest economies in Africa, third-largest if I remember correctly? Sudan is actually not that hostile to the GERD, unlike Egypt. Sudan would import cheap electricity and regulate flooding such as they've recently experienced. 

[ArcticGong]

@lina look like Egypt is taking steps to ensure its water supply.

 https://www.google.se/amp/s/www.al-monitor.com/originals/2020/11/egypt-build-world-largest-desalination-plant-gerd-nile.html%3famp

[lina]

the dam will cause problems to both Egypt and Sudan but again the leaders of those 2 countries are just puppets they can't say it blatantly  because they don't want their people to see the danger. it's simple as that: building several dams over the nile without a doubt will sharply limit the water supply over the next years till the end of times.... this just sounds like trying to give reasons for ethiopia to not feel guilty for causing the incoming devastation.. you need to look at the bigger picture you're still focused on tiny details... and yeah Egypt is trying to do something but that doesn't mean that's actually going to cover the huge water loss.. not even 20%... that means in best case scenario at least 50% of agricultural lands will dry out and the people living around it will have no source of water or income. and that's millions of people, we are not just talking about few families.. don't forget that if desalination was effective in agriculture, the richest countries like gulf area would have turned into green lands, but they are still deserts simply because it's not efficient. 

[ArcticGong]

@lina I just think we're coming at this from a different perspective, if the GERD significantly decreases the flow of water and potentially starve millions of Egyptians would the global community act quickly, that would be a genocidal act, which no one in the global community would allow. And if that would happen anyways does the river already have two safety valves, the Sudanese dam, and the Aswan Dam. Both Sudan and Egypt have capabilities to release water from those dams and adding increase the flow. To be clear, I'm not an expert on dams. What I'm will try to do is to make geopolitical speculations; that no country likes to have its fate in the hand of others. Egypt's insecurities should be a consideration for releasing millions of Ethiopians from deep poverty. Egypt did the same in the 60's, Aswan displaced 60.000 Nubians because the project was deemed essential, not out of malice, but merely pragmatic. 

[lina]

displacing people is different from cutting water, you're still focusing on details and missing the bigger picture. Aswan dam lake will only suffice for around 1 year, after that it will run out of the reserve and millions will face legitimate life/death situation if the drought years came. do you actually believe that if the leaders in Egypt were able to recycle water or desalinate some they would give this out to the normal people? they will hoard all the water sources for the very rich, leaving the rest with no solutions..  the global community is controlled by money interests in favor of human rights, look at Syria, their dictator killed hundred of thousands and caused millions of refugees and just because Russia has some interests in having him in power, their dictator is still ruling the country after all those years.. In Ethiopia's case, the global community is in favor of the dam because lots of countries including China, Israel invested billions and the US needs Abiy to win the elections, for some reason he managed to use the dam as a propaganda machine among his people that it would bring them out of poverty, but you need to think twice at this claim, and remember countries become rich when corruption comes to end not because of hydroelectric dam,, just look at Egypt, they also used to make the same propaganda when they built the dam years ago, claiming it would bring Egypt out of poverty, and now Egypt situation is worse than when it was occupied 100 years ago! 

 

just to bring this end, you will continue supporting the dam which is something i understand, but I hope you consider the major consequences this will have in the next years. 

Edited May 30, 2021 by lina