Chauvin Trial Verdict

[Forestluv]

The jury is now deliberating on the Chauvin case. A few thoughts and predictions:

I watched the majority of the trial and various analysis from defense and prosecuting attorney's. Imo, the defense simply tried to plant doubt into how George Floyd died (that he died from heart disease or intoxication). Secondly, they tried to cast doubt into whether the force was unreasonable. Yet the Minneapolis PD through Chauvin under the bus and even the defenses own witnesses conceded key points. One defense witness agreed that Chauvin use of force was unreasonable after Floyd was motionless and had no pulse (i.e. dead). And there were some bizarre moments for defense witnesses. One tried to claim that Chauvin didn't use force because Floyd was never in pain. Another defense witness claimed Floyd's death was mostly due to carbon monoxide poising from the patrol car's tailpipe. I can't see reasonable jurors being convinced by the defense for a full acquittal. Overall, I think at least manslaughter (due to gross negligence) was demonstrated.

My predictions from least likely to most likely:

Highly unlikely (1% chance): Acquittal on all charges. This would take a unanimous jury. I can't see it happening. The state made a much stronger case. Plus, the jury is 50% poc. I can't see a 12-0 ruling of not guilty on all charges. 

Unlikely (10% chance): Involuntary murder 2. Jury would need to be unanimous that Chauvin intentionally committed felony assault prior to Floyd's death. I don't think the jury will unanimously find Chauvin, a police officer, guilty of intentional felony assault. I don't see a jury unanimously convicting on the highest charge, when two lesser charges are available. 

Possible: Hung Jury (35% chance). All it takes is for one juror to say not guilty on all charges and it's a hung jury. Chauvin isn't acquitted, yet he also isn't found guilty. In a hung jury, the state would need to decide whether to retry, which they would likely do.

Likely: Murder 3 or Manslaughter (55% chance). My hunch is that the 12 jury members will be divided among the charges ranging from murder 2 guilty to innocent on all charges. Murder 3 and Manslaughter are the "compromise" verdicts. To me, manslaughter seems like a pro-police position. Even the Minneapolis police department threw Chauvin under the bus and said he used excessive force. When your fellow cops are testifying that it's manslaughter, it doesn't look good for the defendant. To acquit on manslaughter, a juror would need to be to the right of the police department. 

Post Verdict

Highly Likely: An appeal. It's almost guaranteed that the defense will appeal either murder 2 or 3. I'd say a 50:50 chance of appeal on manslaughter, since I think Chauvin / the defense realizes they probably won't do better than a few years in prison on manslaughter. I think an appeal has a good chance of being granted. This jury was not sequestered and there has been a ton of news regarding protests and pressure for a guilty verdict. Today, Maxine Waters joined protestors and called for increased confrontation if there isn't a guilty verdict. Imo, it's reasonable to say that jurors could not avoid all news and were influenced by news. The defense is saying there needs to be a specific threat to jurors, vague calls for "increased confrontation" are insufficient. I could see it going either way.

Public Reaction in order of severity:

Full Acquittal: I don't see full acquittal on all charges since it requires 12-0. Yet if it happens, all hell will break loose. . . Massive protests, riots and violence. However, it's not like it's an all white jury. Half the jury is poc and would need to vote not guilty. I don't see it happening.

Hung Jury: Massive protests across the country with riots. A hung jury means the state can retry, yet I think most of the public would see this as he wasn't found guilty. 

Guilty on manslaughter: Any guilty verdict would quell unrest to an extent, yet just manslaughter would not be enough for the left. Many people would see this as too light. Some large protests in large cities, yet nowhere near as intense as the two cases above.

Murder 3: I think most people will see this as simply a murder conviction since "murder" is in the title. I think this is the "over/under" conviction for the stage green. Most of the public and green would see this as "convicted of murder". Mild protests by the left. The right would whine a bit, yet also say "See, there is no systemic racism"

Murder 2: This is the top charge, so obviously no one can demand higher, including blm and sjws. Yet the question becomes will the right-wing get upset and protest? I doubt it. Even the Minneapolis police department and various police experts said the force was excessive. I think there would be whining from the right, yet mostly on FoxNews, Briebert and social media. Yet no protests on the streets. The right wing would also use a murder 2 verdict to counter-attack the left's claims of systemic racism in America. 

[Preety_India]

I hope he spends a fair amount of time in prison. 

And even if he doesn't, his conscience will eat him up one day. 

 

[Roy]

Anything less than manslaughter would be an absolute catastrophe. I think there will be a fair result though. Regardless of the outcome the incident has sent shockwaves throughout the world. I can't remember anything as impactful in my lifetime. This is the biggest case since the 92 LA Rodney King riots right?

1 hour ago, Preety_India said:

I hope he spends a fair amount of time in prison. 

And even if he doesn't, his conscience will eat him up one day. 

He will. If he isn't perfectly protected at all times he's probably going to get whacked in prison too. If he somehow manages to survive all that (doubtful), he will get whacked once he's out of prison.

Rest assured his life is ruined and in danger forever.

Edited April 20, 2021 by Roy

[kray]

@Roy Pretty sure he's greenlit in almost every prison around the country lol

[Sempiternity]

 

21 minutes ago, Roy said:

Regardless of the outcome the incident has sent shockwaves throughout the world. I can't remember anything as impactful in my lifetime.

 

Gianna Floyd, daughter of George Floyd, saying "Daddy Changed The World"

 

[Hardkill]

Chauvin found guilty of second-degree murder, third-degree murder, and second-degree manslaughter!

https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/national-international/verdict-reached-in-chauvin-trial/2577696/

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/04/20/us/derek-chauvin-verdict-george-floyd

Justice has been finally delivered!

Edited April 20, 2021 by Hardkill

[Raptorsin7]

@Hardkill He's going to appeal and it's going to end up going through multiple levels of court.

I wonder if this was pre-planned, first you find him guilty of all charges and you give the mob their justice then in a few years it gets downgraded to manslaughter and people will have forgotten so the people in charge can avoid the wrath of the mob

[DnoReally]

I expected manslaugher. Third degree murder I was 50/50.

But second degree murder is ridiculous. Jury should have been sequestered from the very beginning.

This verdict might get thrown out in Appeal.

Edited April 20, 2021 by DnoReally

[DocWatts]

27 minutes ago, Hardkill said:

Chauvin found guilty of second-degree murder, third-degree murder, and second-degree manslaughter!

https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/national-international/verdict-reached-in-chauvin-trial/2577696/

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/04/20/us/derek-chauvin-verdict-george-floyd

Justice has been finally delivered!

Guilty on all counts it seems. Color me surprised, guess I'd just gotten used to police being able to get away with gross misconduct up to and including murder.

Of course the decision will almost certainly appealed, but fantastic news nonetheless.

Moral of the story is that recording devices (ie body cam footage) are an indispensable tool in making sure that police are held accountable for thier actions. Let's use this momentum to continue to push for efforts to increase transparency and public accountability for these institutions.

Edited April 20, 2021 by DocWatts

[Heart of Space]

Oof this is gonna be a doozy.  

[Forestluv]

I think there may have been some public pressure, however the jury still could have gone for murder 3 without mass violence or threats on their life. 

As well, keep in mind that the state prosecutors totally outclassed the defense. The Minneapolis PD and police experts all threw Chauvin under the bus. And they prosecutors had well-renown expert medical witnesses. The defense witnesses were a joke. Carbon monoxide poising killed George? C'mon. 

They will certainly appeal - mostly on the grounds that there was intense media coverage and pressure jurors couldn't avoid. Even the judge said an appeal would have some merit. Yet I don't think they will be able to overturn the verdict all hush-hush. This would be seen as the judicial system overturning justice.  That's way worse than a hung jury. Part of the social tension is injustice in the judicial system.

[Forestluv]

Of note: Biden and Harris called the Floyd family right after the verdict. It was recorded live in the courthouse. Biden mentioned that this was a sign of change coming to America.

There is no way in hell Trump would have called Floyd's family at any time during the ordeal.

It's a very stark contrast. 

[Preety_India]

3 minutes ago, Forestluv said:

Of note: Biden and Harris called the Floyd family right after the verdict. It was recorded live in the courthouse. Biden mentioned that this was a sign of change coming to America.

There is no way in hell Trump would have called Floyd's family at any time during the ordeal.

It's a very stark contrast. 

What do you personally feel about the verdict? You think the verdict was justified?

 

[Lyubov]

I think this was the right call. Being a police officer does not come with a get out of jail free card. I realize they are sometimes putting themselves in harms way and that can be stressful and color the entire job as scary but the way Chauvin reacted was beyond reckless and showed little care for his work. 

Edited April 21, 2021 by Lyubov

[Forestluv]

14 minutes ago, Preety_India said:

What do you personally feel about the verdict? You think the verdict was justified?

Initially, I thought it was gross negligence (manslaughter). Yet after watching the trial and details of the event, I think it went beyond negligent -> into murder territory (not pre-meditated). Murder 3.

I watch a couple legal analysts saying that it wasn't technically murder 2. I'm not sure on that one. 

[Heart of Space]

Lol the car exhaust killed George Floyd?  This is something Chauvins lawyers put together?  They were obviously paid off to throw him under the bus too.  That defense is so stupid it seems literally designed to make the idea of him being not guilty absurd.  He's about to get his ass wrecked, that's my obvious Nostradamus prediction for ya.

[Preety_India]

There's trouble in the waters. 

The judge overseeing former Minneapolis police officer Derek Chauvin's trial in the death of George Floyd said Monday that Rep. Maxine Waters' comments could be grounds for appealing a verdict.

"I'll give you that Congresswoman Waters may have given you something on appeal that may result in this whole trial being overturned," Judge Peter Cahill told defense attorney Eric Nelson on Monday.

[Frylock]

Sweet justice. Enjoy prison, murderous bastard.

[DnoReally]

@Forestluv  The defense never claimed CO poisoning as a direct cause of death, but as a contributing factor, which is fair considering the circumstances. But I thought the whole idea of claiming CO poisoning was for the prosecution to reveal blood oxygenation levels.

[Lyubov]

some really cringy stuff (with a good sentiment behind it) coming out 

 

Edited April 21, 2021 by Lyubov