Pentagon Confirms New UFO Video

[4201]

7 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

Or... telescopes can't photograph an object that moves like hummingbird 20 miles in front of it.

Maybe study how focal distance, FOV, exposure time, and telescopes work. Since you are so scientific you should know such basics.

My point is that for every "evidence" that gets brought up there's an entire scientific community analysing it who would be just as excited as you are to discover there are aliens. There's not just deep space telescopes out there, there's a myriad of other tools being used to monitor the sky in tons of ways.

You either have to declare yourself more qualified than this entire community of specialists in their own field when it comes to analysing UFO footage or you have to believe they are conspiring against you to hide the truth to the public. Both options are bananas. Sure if you want to verify you can qualify yourself but doing so while already believing there are aliens is just confirmation bias.

Edited May 31, 2021 by 4201

[Blackhawk]

24 minutes ago, 4201 said:

But you don't have to choose. There's no reason to pick one and risk being wrong... (on a topic you have no control over anyway)

If we don't know we don't know, you can't assign probabilities to not knowing.

You don't pick one just because you are afraid of being wrong.

I'm just being brave and taking a conscious risk of being wrong, you're not, you're playing safe, but you're just suppressing what you actually believe.

I know I could be wrong, so what if I'm wrong.

I think they most likely aren't aliens, but I'm still open minded to the possibility that they could be aliens. Some new information could easily change my opinion about this matter in the blink of an eye.

Edited May 31, 2021 by Blackhawk

[4201]

1 minute ago, Blackhawk said:

You don't pick one just because you are afraid of being wrong.

I'm just being brave and taking a conscious risk of being wrong, you're not, you're playing safe, but you're just suppressing what you actually believe.

I think they most likely aren't aliens, but I'm still open minded to the possibility that they could be aliens. Some new information could change my opinion about this matter in the blink of an eye.

I'm not "playing safe" or "am afraid to be wrong". There just isn't enough evidence to conclude anything at the moment. That is the truth. Why assume anything when you don't actually know? There's no value into believing something that is not backed up with evidence.

"Today I'm gonna just assume the weather is going to be nice. No no I'm not gonna check the weather online. You believe like me that the weather is going to be nice today, you are just suppressing what you believe."

[Blackhawk]

1 minute ago, 4201 said:

I'm not "playing safe" or "am afraid to be wrong". There just isn't enough evidence to conclude anything at the moment. That is the truth. Why assume anything when you don't actually know? There's no value into believing something that is not backed up with evidence.

"Today I'm gonna just assume the weather is going to be nice. No no I'm not gonna check the weather online. You believe like me that the weather is going to be nice today, you are just suppressing what you believe."

I haven't concluded anything.

I think they could be aliens. But I think they probably aren't.

So what is the problem with my mindset?

In reality you are also leaning towards either A or B.

[4201]

8 minutes ago, Blackhawk said:

I haven't concluded anything.

I think they could be aliens. But I think they probably aren't.

So what is the problem with my mindset?

In reality you are also leaning towards either A or B.

In reality you don't know the future. In september 2001 would you have leaned toward the possibility of there being an attack on the world trade center or would you have leaned toward the possibility of it being a normal day? Surprising things can happen, we have no idea what we will experience tomorrow. This is no justification for aliens of course (not trying to prove A) but there is no reason to assume the future will be in a certain way instead of another.

The only reason you want to "lean" or believe is for practical or survival reasons. It's not practical to live life assuming a terrorist attack is about to happen or aliens are going to spawn. But assuming those things won't happen either doesn't prevent them from happening. IMO we can just live and embrace the unexpected no matter what it is, without leaning or believing in a particular future. It makes the future less boring because it stops always being "what you expected" and it stops being stressful when it diverges from what was expected.

I don't think your mindset is particularly problematic but this whole "leaning" or "believing" is what causes this ridiculous debate in the first place. If what you want is pull your hair out arguing for "not A" against people who argue for A it's up to you. I argue that we don't know, because we don't know.

At the end of the day I'm as ridiculous as anyone here arguing in this thread. If someone wants to believe in fairy tales instead of looking at the evidence, it's really up to them.

[Blackhawk]

@4201 I know that we or I don't know the future for sure.

Yes we don't know. But there's a lot we don't know for sure.

But some things are more likely than others, if you are smart enough to look at all the information.

"But there is no reason to assume the future will be in a certain way instead of another."

There is reasons to believe that the future is more likely to be in a certain way.

For example it's more likely that I will work tomorrow than not work, because I'm scheduled for work and I'm not sick. But I could get sick tomorrow so I wont go to work. But probably I will go to work.

Edited May 31, 2021 by Blackhawk

[Leo Gura]

1 hour ago, 4201 said:

My point is that for every "evidence" that gets brought up there's an entire scientific community analysing it who would be just as excited as you are to discover there are aliens.

No there aren't!

Scientists are not allowed to study aliens or UFOs. That would cause them to lose their jobs and credibilty. So no serious scientist is working on it because it would destroy his career.

You don't understand the depth of the problem.

It's hard to do science when a gun is pointed at your child's head.

[4201]

5 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

Scientists are not allowed to study aliens or UFOs. That would cause them to lose their jobs and credibilty. So no serious scientist is working on it because it would destroy his career.

I'm curious if you have evidence for this claim. Scientists who claim stuff without sufficient evidence would sure lose credibility, but if there is convincing evidence there would be no reason to not publish it. 

17 minutes ago, Blackhawk said:

@4201 I know that we or I don't know the future for sure.

Yes we don't know. But there's a lot we don't know for sure.

But some things are more likely than others, if you are smart enough to look at all the information.

"But there is no reason to assume the future will be in a certain way instead of another."

There is reasons to believe that the future is more likely to be in a certain way.

For example it's more likely that I will work tomorrow than not work, because I'm scheduled for work and I'm not sick. But I could get sick tomorrow so I wont go to work. But probably I will go to work.

Your likelyhood metric is based on past events or past information. You could compute the likelyhood of going to work based on the amount of days you called sick in the last year. Or you can just feel whether you are sick or not. The latter is much more useful and uses direct evidence rather than trying to overanalyze past information.

[Blackhawk]

14 minutes ago, 4201 said:

Your likelyhood metric is based on past events or past information. You could compute the likelyhood of going to work based on the amount of days you called sick in the last year. Or you can just feel whether you are sick or not. The latter is much more useful and uses direct evidence rather than trying to overanalyze past information.

........

Of course I include whether I feel sick or not. I include everything in the calculation.

[Woke456]

Biden doesn't have the spine to call the news fake.  Better to talk about this instead of inflation, anyway.

[DocWatts]

2 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

No there aren't!

Scientists are not allowed to study aliens or UFOs. That would cause them to lose their jobs and credibilty. So no serious scientist is working on it because it would destroy his career.

You don't understand the depth of the problem.

It's hard to do science when a gun is pointed at your child's head.

Sounds to me like you're conflating the search for extraterrestrial intelligence (which has been considered legitimate for at least the last half century) with explorations of the paranormal (which is disdained by the scientific community).

Carl Sagan spearheaded efforts to communicate with extraterrestrials in the 70s and 80s, both through SETI and through the Golden Records attached to the Voyager space probes.

Exobiology is a legitimate scientific field these days. An actual set of Protocols have been put in place should a civilization outside of Earth attempt to make contact with us.

You criticize the scientific community for not taking UFO sightings more seriously, but what would a scientific exploration of these types of phenomena look like at this point? Scattered handfuls of people seeing something strange in the sky at different times and places isn't exactly something you can plan for.

I suppose you could try and track the frequency of where and when these incidents took place, maybe get optics and imaging experts to flag false positives in recorded footage, but it doesn't seem like there's a ton that scientists could actually do with the types of evidence that exist.

Let's imagine that the equivalent of NASA's budget was set aside for the study of these phenomena. How would you suggest these resources be put to use for that purpose?

Edited May 31, 2021 by DocWatts

[Shin]

UFO denialers in a nutshell:

 

[DocWatts]

8 minutes ago, Shin said:

UFO denialers in a nutshell:

 

Lots of Confirmation Bias on both sides. Not like UFO believers don't do the same thing when a sighting they're excited about gets debunked as an optical illusion that's caused for mundane reasons..

What's ironic is that the bottom part of that quote fits Conspiracy Theorists of all stripes like a glove.

[Blackhawk]

11 minutes ago, Shin said:

UFO denialers in a nutshell:

 

Ok if you want to play it like that, game on.

[Gregp]

 

 

  !!!

 

Edited May 31, 2021 by Gregp

[4201]

3 hours ago, Blackhawk said:

........

Of course I include whether I feel sick or not. I include everything in the calculation.

Good then. But the calculations are not necessary, you can just do what feels great all the time without stressing with any sort of calculations. If you were asked to predict the future, calculations would be the best you could do but that's impossible anyway and no one asks you to predict the future. We could argue whether or not we will enter contact with aliens in X amount of time but there's no proper calculations to determine a likelihood for that. This 95% / 5% your pulled out is just out of your ass. Statistically, the chances of something happening that never happened is always 0 but things that never happened happen all the time. 

We are really just splitting hairs at this point lol

[Leo Gura]

7 hours ago, DocWatts said:

Let's imagine that the equivalent of NASA's budget was set aside for the study of these phenomena. How would you suggest these resources be put to use for that purpose?

Dude, the US government has been studying and collecting data on UFOs for decades. They just don't share that data with silly people like you.

It would not surprise me at all if the US gov had alien spacecraft and corpses in their possession. They are not going to tell you about it.

[Blackhawk]

@Leo Gura Why would they keep it a secret? And would really all other nations keep it secret too? And could all the nations keep it secret for so many years?

Edited May 31, 2021 by Blackhawk

[DocWatts]

36 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

It would not surprise me at all if the US gov had alien spacecraft and corpses in their possession. They are not going to tell you about it.

Any evidence at all to back up this hunch besides just taking people who make these sorts of conspiratorial claims at thier word?

At least Edward Snowdon had the good sense to leak evidence to Investigative journalists to validate his claims; he wouldn't have gotten very far if he went the Bob Lazar route of just hoping people take his word about it.

 

Edited May 31, 2021 by DocWatts

[Shin]

22 minutes ago, Blackhawk said:

@Leo Gura Why would they keep it a secret? And would really all other nations keep it secret too? And could all the nations keep it secret for so many years?

Other nations ?

Isn't USA the only country on earth ?