China took over Hong Kong. They say Taiwan is next. Why?

[Blackhawk]

On 2021-03-26 at 6:21 PM, Husseinisdoingfine said:

Hmmm, it’s not as much as I support China and much as I do hold the United States and the West in disdain.

The West needs not to be destroyed, but just someone to take away their number one spot. America in particular has such a nasty history of imperialism and military aggression, another country such as China has to be their to in a sense put the United States in check, so that America can’t just willy nilly invade, sanction, and interfere at will with no pushback.

And this effort to check the United State’s power is actually already being made, below is an image of several countries coming together to put a check on American economic aggression. But this is not enough, countries to also put a check on American military might as well.

Yeah I'm sure it would be better if China, Russia or Iran would be number 1. Sigh.

If that would happen, you would beg to God that USA would retake the #1 spot. You would beg 50 times per day on your knees while crying.

[snowyowl]

@Blackhawk yeah, I'm afraid that small and weaker countries like mine have to pick sides from among the superpowers to avoid being completely downtrodden (and I'm from the UK but we're too small to stand on our own militarily). The Vietnam war was basically a power struggle between the US (for capitalism) and China/Russia (for communism), and even though the US was no1, there would have still been a war whether the US got involved or not. 

[Blackhawk]

1 hour ago, snowyowl said:

@Husseinisdoingfine I think I see where you're coming from, but just replacing one militaristic nation on the no 1 spot with another, isn't going to make the world a better place. Remember that during the cold war the Soviets and the US kept each other in check, at least in certain areas like Europe and the Middle East. Which was the best place to live then? 

Not that I have I good alternative either, until we all decide to club together and beef up the United Nations with a military and economic force which can stand up to the superpowers. But that's not in the superpowers' interests to let that happen. 

 

20 minutes ago, snowyowl said:

@Blackhawk yeah, I'm afraid that small and weaker countries like mine have to pick sides from among the superpowers to avoid being completely downtrodden (and I'm from the UK but we're too small to stand on our own militarily). The Vietnam war was basically a power struggle between the US (for capitalism) and China/Russia (for communism), and even though the US was no1, there would have still been a war whether the US got involved or not. 

USA and Nato are the main protectors of the free world, democracy and human rights.

For extra security, all countries in the free world should join Nato (there's still a few such countries outside Nato).

West/the free world is already united, but with Nato we are even more united.

[Stovo]

I have travelled China extensively, have many Chinese friends and have dated many Chinese women. Fair to say, I might be able to add some understanding of the situation.

Let's think about it from a spiral dynamics point of view. Most of China is stage blue, whilst a significant and growing portion of the population is stage orange - mainly younger people in cities. I have met some stage green Chinese people, but they are a minority.

Meanwhile, western countries have a majority stage orange population, with a significant and growing portion of the population being stage green - again, mainly younger people in cities. Stage blue is less common, but still prevalent - particularly in rural US. 

Therefore, the two spheres are at different stages of the spiral which amplifies the misunderstandings that come alongside the cultural differences. The people in the west and China think as follows:

Blue Chinese: ultra nationalist, hardline support communist party, distrust the west and western media, see Han Chinese as the superior race, believe Taiwan and Hong Kong are a part of China and this is unnegotiable.

Orange Chinese: believe communist party is not perfect but the best leadership for now due to 40 years of dramatic economic improvement, focused on career, try to avoid discussing politics.

Green Chinese (minority): Most likely to criticise government (this is a HUGE deal in China), tend to want to move to the west, sees democracy as superior, holds the west in high esteem, most likely to emphasise with Hong Kong, Taiwan, Xinjiang and Tibet issues.

Blue Western (minority): Probably Christians, support protectionist policies, sees China as a huge threat, believes white people are the superior race, terrified of communism.

Orange Western: Want to strategically do business with China and careful on political sensitivities, happy to do unethical behaviour to gain access to Chinese markets, profit and individual success above all else. Concerned about HK/Taiwan as their erosion erodes western power and influence.

Green Western: Care about HK/Taiwan/Xinjiang/Tibet because they emphasise with the people suffering there.

It's interesting as you go up the spiral the two peoples start to have more in common with each other. For example, stage green Chinese and Western people are relatively similar, whilst stage blue Chinese and Western people are more likely to fight each other. This is because higher stages are able to look beyond cultural prejudices and are less likely to believe their race or society is superior to the other. 

The best way to handle the rise of China, is to raise consciousness levels of mankind. It would help if more people reached stage yellow as this stage is excellent at understanding different cultures and value systems. As you saw on the above examples, lower stages are more likely to fight which would be bad for everyone, whilst higher stages are more likely to cooperate which would be mutually beneficial. China is roughly operating at 1 stage lower than the West, so they have more work to do. 

 

Edited March 28, 2021 by Stovo

[Arcangelo]

On 3/25/2021 at 4:29 PM, Husseinisdoingfine said:

personally that fact that finally another world power stands a chance to outcompete and then dominate the U.S. is just terrific.

This is why we don't change names. You still have stuff to write and regret afterwards. Like this^

[Gesundheit]

Because enough with capitalism.

[Rolo]

If China takes over Taiwan they will have fulfilled their one China policy and they will be able to have more assertiveness over the south China sea giving them more military strength and better fishing.

[RareGodzilla]

Taiwan plays the role of an unsinkable aircraft carrier. In case of conflict, the US could competly block chinese access to the open sea. Because of this China will do everything to secure it. 

[Fadl]

On 27/3/2021 at 9:34 PM, Woke456 said:

You shouldn't hold guns to people's heads to make them hang out with you.

We are just talking about nationalism which is pure stupidity after all.

[Milos Uzelac]

Could, but according to this video's information likely won't because of the potentially huge costs and losses an amphibious invasion would entail for the military force and domestic stability of the CCP controlled PRC.

Who postulated this invasion theory? Admiral Philip Davidson - The Chief of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command - says conflict possible with Taiwan in the next six years.

Conclusion of the video:

,, Invading and occupying Taiwan would be an extraordinarily difficult military action and not to mention an extremely risky proposition. Amphibious warfare requires precise coordination between air, land, and sea forces on a massive scale. The Chinese military would have to occupy an island with a hostile population of 23 million that is not going to be easy and insurgency would be unavoidable.

An all-out invasion Chinese invasion at this point in time could theoretically succeed but it could just as easily fail miserably. A military disaster could have catastrophic consequences for the Chinese military - above all, it would brand it as a paper tiger and encourage foreign incursions elsewhere.

For China, these considerations are too risky so a full-scale invasion is not likely in the near future."

,, What is possible however is that China begins a hybrid war which is a type of conflict that stops short of shooting and seeks to subdue the foe through fear and exhaustion.

If performed correctly a hybrid war can be decisive, that's why Chinese warplanes are flying around Taiwan almost daily, sometimes launching multiple sorties on the same day. The pace of the Chinese incursions is unrelenting, so without firing a single shot China is depleting Taiwan's resources. Beijing can afford to keep the pressure and by increasing the tempo of these operations, the Chinese air force can inflict disproportionate stress on Taiwan.

The purpose of hybrid warfare is to make the target feel as if it's isolated as if its allies are not coming to the rescue and that the military threat is not a bluff, for this to work the assault needs to be low-risk so as not to provoke a backlash from the United States."

,, China could for instance impose a naval blockade to suffocate Taiwan, it could intercept Taiwanese cargo ships claiming that they are carrying illicit goods and weaponry. No one would believe China and much of the international community would condemn Beijing's policy, but none of that would matter because no one would physically come to Taiwan's defense and such a naval blockade wouldn't result in an armed conflict and would likely force Taiwan into concessions allowing Beijing to claim victory and back down.

Another example would be for China to ,,shock and awe" Taiwan into political concessions by seizing the Taiwanese controlled Kinmen and Matsu islands just off the Taiwanese coast."

,,The trouble with hybrid warfare is that it means abandoning physical soft power, physical action against Taiwan would stir up a zealous independence movement which would make the occupation all the more difficult.

So while China could manufacture a crisis to reverse Taiwan's drift towards independence, the prospects of an all-out invasion is overblown at least in the coming decade, even then China would invade Taiwan if it's confident in it's victory or desperate for domestic approval."

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Danioover9000]

@Milos Uzelac

7 hours ago, Milos Uzelac said:

Could, but according to this video's information likely won't because of the potentially huge costs and losses an amphibious invasion would entail for the military force and domestic stability of the CCP controlled PRC.

Who postulated this invasion theory? Admiral Philip Davidson - The Chief of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command - says conflict possible with Taiwan in the next six years.

Conclusion of the video:

,, Invading and occupying Taiwan would be an extraordinarily difficult military action and not to mention an extremely risky proposition. Amphibious warfare requires precise coordination between air, land, and sea forces on a massive scale. The Chinese military would have to occupy an island with a hostile population of 23 million that is not going to be easy and insurgency would be unavoidable.

An all-out invasion Chinese invasion at this point in time could theoretically succeed but it could just as easily fail miserably. A military disaster could have catastrophic consequences for the Chinese military - above all, it would brand it as a paper tiger and encourage foreign incursions elsewhere.

For China, these considerations are too risky so a full-scale invasion is not likely in the near future."

,, What is possible however is that China begins a hybrid war which is a type of conflict that stops short of shooting and seeks to subdue the foe through fear and exhaustion.

If performed correctly a hybrid war can be decisive, that's why Chinese warplanes are flying around Taiwan almost daily, sometimes launching multiple sorties on the same day. The pace of the Chinese incursions is unrelenting, so without firing a single shot China is depleting Taiwan's resources. Beijing can afford to keep the pressure and by increasing the tempo of these operations, the Chinese air force can inflict disproportionate stress on Taiwan.

The purpose of hybrid warfare is to make the target feel as if it's isolated as if its allies are not coming to the rescue and that the military threat is not a bluff, for this to work the assault needs to be low-risk so as not to provoke a backlash from the United States."

,, China could for instance impose a naval blockade to suffocate Taiwan, it could intercept Taiwanese cargo ships claiming that they are carrying illicit goods and weaponry. No one would believe China and much of the international community would condemn Beijing's policy, but none of that would matter because no one would physically come to Taiwan's defense and such a naval blockade wouldn't result in an armed conflict and would likely force Taiwan into concessions allowing Beijing to claim victory and back down.

Another example would be for China to ,,shock and awe" Taiwan into political concessions by seizing the Taiwanese controlled Kinmen and Matsu islands just off the Taiwanese coast."

,,The trouble with hybrid warfare is that it means abandoning physical soft power, physical action against Taiwan would stir up a zealous independence movement which would make the occupation all the more difficult.

So while China could manufacture a crisis to reverse Taiwan's drift towards independence, the prospects of an all-out invasion is overblown at least in the coming decade, even then China would invade Taiwan if it's confident in it's victory or desperate for domestic approval."

 

 

 

 

 

 

   This is likely China's strategy going forward with Taiwan.

[Tetcher]

Fun fact Taiwan is the host to TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) which is the largest microprocessor foundry in the world, and the most advanced as only TSMC (Samsung also now to a much smaller extent) is able mass produce the 7nm chips that are in shortage everywhere (AMD and Nvidia chips). Who would have thought that people on a such small island would be so fierce as to have created the only company in the world supplying the entire world in the latest generation semiconductors. TSMC net revenue in 2020 was 47B USD and it is so important in the Taiwanese economy that the latter will fluctuate alongside TSMC performance.

Another fun fact is that the company supplying the production machines to TSMC is ASML and it is based in Netherlands. For the 7nm lithography process the ASML machines create extreme UV (EUV) at 14nm by hitting a droplet of tin mid air with a powerful laser vaporizing it and creating the EUV which has to be directed in vacuum with a complex set of mirrors as such small wave length will be stopped by glass and even air.

So presently the most important companies in the world are arguably ASML and TSMC and none are American, instead they are based in quite unexpected countries. Both America and west China tried to build such capabilities for themselves injecting billions and failed so far given the extreme complexity of this industry.

Now will Taiwan fall to west China ? If we're being honest west China has the power to increase the pressure on many fronts, it will depend on the US which became much weaker on that point now that the presidency was denied to Trump to the benefit of Biden. However as we just saw Taiwanese people are fierce people, they made it that far so we can hope they won't lose their identity anytime soon.

There is a great youtube channel called asianometry that dives interestingly into asian topics, for instance if you want to know how TSMC was created : 

For something closer to the topic the current president of Taiwan was interviewed a year ago by western media, she's careful as to say anything that would provoke west China but clearly states that Taiwan is an independant country : 

 

Edited April 13, 2021 by Tetcher

[Milos Uzelac]

2 hours ago, Danioover9000 said:

@Milos Uzelac

   This is likely China's strategy going forward with Taiwan.

Most likely if the author of the video is to be trusted as a learned and impartial source on the topic. 

I've seen his videos where he has demonstrated in his narration and presentation clear nationalist bias with an detectable undertone of triumphalism and jingoism as an Azeri and for the Azeri side in the conflict when covering the war over the Nagorno-Karabakh autonomous region between Azerbaijani and Armenian forces. 

[Milos Uzelac]

1 hour ago, Tetcher said:

Fun fact Taiwan is the host to TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) which is the largest microprocessor foundry in the world, and the most advanced as only TSMC (Samsung also now to a much smaller extent) is able mass produce the 7nm chips that are in shortage everywhere (AMD and Nvidia chips). Who would have thought that people on a such small island would be so fierce as to have created the only company in the world supplying the entire world in the latest generation semiconductors. TSMC net revenue in 2020 was 47B USD and it is so important in the Taiwanese economy that the latter will fluctuate alongside TSMC performance.

Another fun fact is that the company supplying the production machines to TSMC is ASML and it is based in Netherlands. For the 7nm lithography process the ASML machines create extreme UV (EUV) at 14nm by hitting a droplet of tin mid air with a powerful laser vaporizing it and creating the EUV which has to be directed in vacuum with a complex set of mirrors as such small wave length will be stopped by glass and even air.

So presently the most important companies in the world are arguably ASML and TSMC and none are American, instead they are based in quite unexpected countries. Both America and west China tried to build such capabilities for themselves injecting billions and failed so far given the extreme complexity of this industry.

Now will Taiwan fall to west China ? If we're being honest west China has the power to increase the pressure on many fronts, it will depend on the US which became much weaker on that point now that the presidency was denied to Trump to the benefit of Biden. However as we just saw Taiwanese people are fierce people, they made it that far so we can hope they won't lose their identity anytime soon.

There is a great youtube channel called asianometry that dives interestingly into asian topics, for instance if you want to know how TSMC was created : 

For something closer to the topic the current president of Taiwan was interviewed a year ago by western media, she's careful as to say anything that would provoke west China but clearly states that Taiwan is an independant country : 

 

Quick question unrelated to the main subject of the topic you posted.

Why do use the geographical term West China and not Mainland China when reffering to the PRC?

BTW Taiwan is mostly used as geographical marker by the Mainland Chinese when reffering to it implicitly as part of their geographical territory under the One Country Two Systems Principle. 

Taiwan calls it itself the Republic of China and the people there reffer to themselves as Chinese not Taiwanese as far as I know. 

Edited April 13, 2021 by Milos Uzelac

[Tetcher]

32 minutes ago, Milos Uzelac said:

Quick question unrelated to the main subject of the topic you posted.

Why do use the geographical term West China and not Mainland China when reffering to the PRC?

BTW Taiwan is mostly used as geographical marker by the Mainland Chinese when reffering to it implicitly as part of their geographical territory under the One Country Two Systems Principle. 

Taiwan calls it itself the Republic of China and the people there reffer to themselves as Chinese not Taiwanese as far as I know. 

It's a meme on the internet to taunt the CCP (Chinese Communist Party). Historically Taiwan was established by a Ming general during the Ming-Qing transition (change of dynasties in the 1660s). His goal was to use the Taiwanese Island (called Formose at that time) as a base to retake mainland China from the Qing dynasty. As the soldiers stayed on the island and established a society over the centuries they called themselves China, they had their democracy, their passport, their currency, their army. They considered themselves as the real China and had in mind to retake the continental land of China. It didn't happened and won't anymore but to taunt the CCP people like to call Taiwan "China" and China mainland "West China".

Edited April 13, 2021 by Tetcher

[Milos Uzelac]

27 minutes ago, Tetcher said:

It's a meme on the internet to taunt the CCP (Chinese Communist Party). Historically Taiwan was established by a Ming general during the Ming-Qing transition (change of dynasties in the 1660s). His goal was to use the Taiwanese Island (called Formose at that time) as a base to retake mainland China from the Qing dynasty. As the soldiers stayed on the island and established a society over the centuries they called themselves China, they had their democracy, their passport, their currency, their army. They considered themselves as the real China and had in mind to retake the continental land of China. It didn't happened and won't anymore but to taunt the CCP people like to call Taiwan "China" and China mainland "West China".

Very interesting!

Thanks a lot for explaining to me in short the history of Taiwan and the historical origin and political context behind the term. 

And thanks for explaining and punctuating the  crucial importance of Taiwanese Semi-Conducteurs Manufacturing Company for the global high-tech market! 

I had no clue about their existence and importance for manufacturing the crucial components for the functioning of graphic cards on computers, laptops and smartphones!

Great share here and thanks once again for the very useful information ! ??

[Tetcher]

@Milos Uzelac you're welcome  I loved to learn about Taiwan it's so surprising to discover the world impact they managed to accomplish from their little island.