Is investing in Crypto just a get rich quick scheme?

[vinc3nc]

 

4 hours ago, 7thLetter said:

To take the previous percentage increases and project a price target by assuming it will perform the same way as last time wouldn't make sense. Bitcoin once costed pennies and percentage increases back then were probably over 10000%. Are you going to assume we'll see another 10000% increase?

 

Dude, what are you talking about? I clearly said the increase in % will be smaller & smaller each bull cyle due to needing more money to push up the price. And you saw what I wrote and now you're still saying as if I am claiming the opposite. What the hell?

No matter how you're making the measurement in terms of % increase - whether that's from the lows or the highs - it will be a lot smaller the next bull cycle. The fact is we're not going to a prolonged bear market like in 2017 at this point. This bull cycle is not finished, even if it corrects back to near 20ks.

I don't even know what you want from me at this point.

[vinc3nc]

3 minutes ago, Tim123 said:

 I bet you sold to early and now despise bitcoin? 

That probably has to be true, at least to a degree 

[Tim123]

but I do understand where your coming from, you can make more money running a valuable business which is fair play, but then were do you put all the money you make from your biz? i'd rather invest all that money into land, real estate, fine art and crypto instead of just holding raw cash in the bank.

[Thought Art]

21 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

The mental energy you guys are wasting on this could have been invested in actually making yourself a massive value provider.

Be ware of distractions if you truly care about becoming wealthy.

People who invest in crypto are like vultures fighting for scraps of road-kill while while the lion goes on to hunt the real game.

Really? I thought maybe it was a way to escape wage slavery over the next 5 years to have more time to focus on my purpose. Just started researching so, I really have no idea.

[North Sea]

@Leo Gura I’m not comparing Van Gogh with crypto investors, I’m just saying he did not get rewarded. But great answer to my point.

[Adam M]

27 minutes ago, Thought Art said:

Really? I thought maybe it was a way to escape wage slavery over the next 5 years to have more time to focus on my purpose. Just started researching so, I really have no idea.

Escape wage slavery over the next 5 years by honing yourself as an instrument that provides massive value to people.

You're not gonna escape wage slavery by buying bitcoin...so forget it.

Invest your time, focus, and energy on something that can generate income for you for the rest of your life.

[Thought Art]

@Adam M I just don't think it need to be a huge time consumption and could be lucrative. I am definitely always honing my skills.  I was toying with the idea, we will see! Haven't really researched enough, only put a few hours in this week, setting my the wallet etc. Which is still a useful thing if you wan to shop certain ways. I am seeing now perhaps it isn't really creating value. How is it legal?

21 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

The mental energy you guys are wasting on this could have been invested in actually making yourself a massive value provider.

Be ware of distractions if you truly care about becoming wealthy.

People who invest in crypto are like vultures fighting for scraps of road-kill while while the lion goes on to hunt the real game.

 

Edited January 20, 2021 by Thought Art

[Thought Art]

@Yali

On 1/11/2021 at 7:52 PM, Yali said:

@Leo Gura

The point is not to get punished.

Bro, really?

[Leo Gura]

2 hours ago, Thought Art said:

Really? I thought maybe it was a way to escape wage slavery over the next 5 years to have more time to focus on my purpose. Just started researching so, I really have no idea.

That's like saying lotto tickets are a way to escape wage slavery. Just start researching lotto.

2 hours ago, North Sea said:

@Leo Gura I’m not comparing Van Gogh with crypto investors, I’m just saying he did not get rewarded. But great answer to my point.

You will not get rewarded unless you design your own reward.

Also, although Van Gogh was a great artist I would not exactly call him a massive value provider. At least not in his day. Paintings don't provide that much value to people which is why they are very hard to sell unless you are a rockstar celebrity artist.

Actually help someone's survival and you will get paid fairly well for it.

[Thought Art]

@Leo Gura Thank you for the clarification. I am still naive.

Edited January 20, 2021 by Thought Art

[Vrubel]

53 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

Also, although Van Gogh was a great artist I would not exactly call him a massive value provider. At least not in his day. Paintings don't provide that much value to people which is why they are very hard to sell unless you are a rockstar celebrity artist.

Vincent Van Gogh was the most beautiful soul that ever lived. He felt so deeply and conveyed the beauty around him on canvas as no else could. If you ever see a Van Gogh, you will see that his paintings are deep and mystical. The yellow on his sunflowers is like no other yellow you will ever see. His paintings are a window into his gentle but tormented soul. No other artist inspires so much compassion, yet the people around him didn't care for him and some thought he was some kind of a freak. He was never appreciated during his lifetime and never sold a single painting. The same passions that made him feel so deeply also made him deranged, depressed, and suicidal which ultimately led to his death. Only after his death, he went on to inspire millions of people. His tragic life is inseparable from his paintings, the two together are his art.  

Edited January 20, 2021 by Vrubel

[Aurelius]

you won’t get rich quick in crypto, only if you are very lucky or you have already a ton of money and speculating hard.

BUT you will get rich slow. (But of course nobody wants to get rich slow) and you have to put A LOT of effort in your research. Asking for the coin that will make you rich is not the way - also that would be leeching off the time of research that another person did also known as spoonfeeding.

Leo has of course not the slightest idea of crypto but i always like him playing the devils advocate. 

What crypto really is would be what some call wealth transfer. Why? Because 1st. the big boys don’t have it on their radar. By the time they will and small fishes have caught up leveling the playing field.
2nd - you can deny it but the things being build right now will heavily influence our future - and i think for the better - investing in it then doesn’t sound so bad isn’t it? Especially when it all comes together for what some people loved it in the first place. Decentralization.

But of course you don’t have to buy the ticket for that boat. You can watch it from a safe distance and visit this new continent later when the infrastructure is already in place.
 

Edited January 21, 2021 by Aurelius

[7thLetter]

18 hours ago, vinc3nc said:

Dude, what are you talking about? I clearly said the increase in % will be smaller & smaller each bull cyle due to needing more money to push up the price. And you saw what I wrote and now you're still saying as if I am claiming the opposite. What the hell?

No matter how you're making the measurement in terms of % increase - whether that's from the lows or the highs - it will be a lot smaller the next bull cycle. The fact is we're not going to a prolonged bear market like in 2017 at this point. This bull cycle is not finished, even if it corrects back to near 20ks.

I skimmed through what you said in a previous post about needing more money to push up the price.

And yes you're saying the % increase will be smaller next cycle, we're already up 1000% from the March 2020 COVID crash lows.

I don't think there would be a prolonged bear market like in 2017/2018, it could be shorter this time. Not 3 years like in 2017, but maybe a 1 or 2 year bear market. Compare current price action to 2017, in 2017 it went parabolic then it was over. Current price action right now looks like the top of what we see in the 2017 bubble. We're already seeing price slowing down and we've been under $40K for almost 2 weeks now.

What I'm saying is, I personally think the parabolic move is over, in other words the bull cycle is over. IN MY OPINION. Based on fundamentals + TA. Watch the video below for the fundamentals I'm looking at.

I think crypto was pushing up this time because of the same reason the stock market is getting pushed up. The stock market has been making new all time highs over the past year even though the economy is shit and worse than what we saw in the great depression. Ever wondered why?

I have a video for you, Biden will crash the markets, and Crypto will be included I'm sure:

 

Edited January 21, 2021 by 7thLetter

[vinc3nc]

1 hour ago, 7thLetter said:

I don't think there would be a prolonged bear market like in 2017/2018, it could be shorter this time. Not 3 years like in 2017, but maybe a 1 or 2 year bear market. Compare current price action to 2017, in 2017 it went parabolic then it was over. Current price action right now looks like the top of what we see in the 2017 bubble. We're already seeing price slowing down and we've been under $40K for almost 2 weeks now.

What I'm saying is, I personally think the parabolic move is over, in other words the bull cycle is over. IN MY OPINION. Based on fundamentals + TA. Watch the video below for the fundamentals I'm looking at.

I think crypto was pushing up this time because of the same reason the stock market is getting pushed up. The stock market has been making new all time highs over the past year even though the economy is shit and worse than what we saw in the great depression. Ever wondered why?

I have a video for you, Biden will crash the markets, and Crypto will be included I'm sure:

It might look like the 2017 bubble, but it's not. You can't really know how much there is left in this bull run. Also, the environment is different today. 42k today doesnt feel like 20k in 2017. It's not nearly as euphoric. Also, Biden will print way more money this year than Trump did.

You can say that the bull run is over, but what exactly does that mean for you? A bull run can have corrections, just like it had in 2017 (at 3k, 5k, and above 7k for example). A correction is not the end of the bull run. But if you say that BTC will crash down to 8-10k, then that's a 75-80% crash, which I think can't happen without a black swan event. There's so many people waiting to buy BTC cheaper. It would be surprising if it goes near 20k again at all.

You have to understand that a lot of people missed the boat on this run. The market just didn't give you a chance to buy in. It just went up & up & up. The value of dollar is decreasing more & more. Guess what that means for BTC.

Anyway, that's your opinion. But in my opinion, that's silly. I can't see an 80% crash in this environment. I'm saying it can correct for like 40-50% at max (between 20 and 25k), and only for a couple of months. And then hit ATH again later near the end of this year (100-200k in price, maybe even more).

I guess we'll see who will be more right in a couple of months.

[7thLetter]

1 hour ago, vinc3nc said:

It might look like the 2017 bubble, but it's not. You can't really know how much there is left in this bull run. Also, the environment is different today. 42k today doesnt feel like 20k in 2017. It's not nearly as euphoric. Also, Biden will print way more money this year than Trump did.

Yes, we don't know, you don't know and I don't know either. Yes the environment is different, we're in a severe recession & global pandemic with money printing, 0% interest rates, etc.

You don't think it wasn't as euphoric even though we've already seen price double the previous ATH within' 4-5 months? After the break of the 2017 ATH, it took us 1 month to get to $40K. I'm measuring the movements on my chart at this very moment. In 2017 after the 3rd correction of the bull run from $7.5k to $6K, it took 1 month to get from $6K to the ATH ($19.8K). Back to current price action, if a $20000+ increase from $19.8K to $41K in 1 month isn't euphoric enough for you then how can 2017's $6K-$19.8K jump in one month be more euphoric?

Biden borrowing more money isn't a determining factor that would continue to keep the markets propped up. Watch the video. There's several other fundamental reasons that could lead to a market crash.

1 hour ago, vinc3nc said:

You can say that the bull run is over, but what exactly does that mean for you? A bull run can have corrections, just like it had in 2017 (at 3k, 5k, and above 7k for example). A correction is not the end of the bull run. But if you say that BTC will crash down to 8-10k, then that's a 75-80% crash, which I think can't happen without a black swan event. There's so many people waiting to buy BTC cheaper. It would be surprising if it goes near 20k again at all.

What I'm personally looking for to confirm the current bull run is over, is if we see price push below $30K. Then that's when I'll say its over for sure. If we see $20K that wouldn't be a correction imo, that's a 50% crash and could push a lot lower. And yes I know, 2017 had corrections. But that was before the parabolic move when price was moving slow. Once the parabolic move happens there aren't any significant corrections in between.

When you talk about price going up & up & up with no chance to buy, that's what I mean by a parabolic move. 2017 had ONE parabolic move up, and we've already seen the ONE parabolic move for 2020/2021. Now price is pushing towards $30K as we speak. If you look at previous years as well, in 2013 it had ONE parabolic move from $11 to $261 then that cycle was over. In 2014, ONE parabolic move from $100 to $1100. So again, the argument that we saw corrections at 3k, 5k, 7k doesn't apply here because that was not during or after parabolic moves.

1 hour ago, vinc3nc said:

You have to understand that a lot of people missed the boat on this run. The market just didn't give you a chance to buy in. It just went up & up & up. The value of dollar is decreasing more & more. Guess what that means for BTC.

Anyway, that's your opinion. But in my opinion, that's silly. I can't see an 80% crash in this environment. I'm saying it can correct for like 40-50% at max (between 20 and 25k), and only for a couple of months. And then hit ATH again later near the end of this year (100-200k in price, maybe even more).

I guess we'll see who will be more right in a couple of months.

The value of the dollar decreasing is a good fundamental to keep in mind but it doesn't necessarily confirm the current short-term (next couple of months) move will continue. BTC is overpriced right now and it will go to whatever price the market currently thinks its worth.

Hitting $100K this year still might be possible who knows, all I'm saying is the current move is over. A drop to $10K-$20K is possible before we move towards $100K. And even though I still believe $100K is possible by December but we see $10K within' the next couple months then that still means the current bull run is over. A new bull run will happen later.

Time will tell.

Edit:

Also, people wanting to buy isn't as important as how much they're willing to put in. 100,000 people could be waiting to buy but if all they have is $5K each then that's nothing. What's more important is if they have billions of dollars in cash. I'm sure everyone wanted to buy when BTC was $19K in 2017 also, and once started to drop all they did was buy into the crash. Demand will drop as price starts to crash. So people wanting to buy doesn't mean anything. Tell me who these people are and how much money they have that's more important.

Edited January 21, 2021 by 7thLetter

[vinc3nc]

1 hour ago, 7thLetter said:

You don't think it wasn't as euphoric even though we've already seen price double the previous ATH within' 4-5 months? After the break of the 2017 ATH, it took us 1 month to get to $40K. I'm measuring the movements on my chart at this very moment. In 2017 after the 3rd correction of the bull run from $7.5k to $6K, it took 1 month to get from $6K to the ATH ($19.8K). Back to current price action, if a $20000+ increase from $19.8K to $41K in 1 month isn't euphoric enough for you then how can 2017's $6K-$19.8K jump in one month be more euphoric?

The first mistake that you (or we) are making is that you're comparing this to the 2017 bull run. The current bull run will probably resemble more the 2012/2013 one. If you look at that one, you will see it had 2 booms in one bull run. But it never went below previous ATH, which means that it was one bull run really.

It will probably happen similarly here. It won't go below previous ATH (below 20k), and so you won't be able to say that this one is over already. But if you're saying we're crashing to around 10k, then that's another story. Then you can say this bull run is over. Also, if BTC wicks below 20k but later closes its candle above 20k, then it doesn't count as if it broke 20k really and that the bull run is over.

1 hour ago, 7thLetter said:

What I'm personally looking for to confirm the current bull run is over, is if we see price push below $30K. Then that's when I'll say its over for sure. If we see $20K that wouldn't be a correction imo, that's a 50% crash and could push a lot lower. And yes I know, 2017 had corrections. But that was before the parabolic move when price was moving slow. Once the parabolic move happens there aren't any significant corrections in between.

Lol, the current bull run is not over if it dips below 30k. I don't think you properly understand what a market cycle is, or a bull run for that matter. I'll post a picture for you below to help you understand what market cycles really are.

Also, you're too focused on the price alone and not enough on the % of the price. A 12-13k drop might seem a lot in terms of price, but it's not even a 30% correction, and you call that the ending of the bull run.

1 hour ago, 7thLetter said:

When you talk about price going up & up & up with no chance to buy, that's what I mean by a parabolic move. 2017 had ONE parabolic move up, and we've already seen the ONE parabolic move for 2020/2021. Now price is pushing towards $30K as we speak. If you look at previous years as well, in 2013 it had ONE parabolic move from $11 to $261 then that cycle was over. In 2014, ONE parabolic move from $100 to $1100. So again, the argument that we saw corrections at 3k, 5k, 7k doesn't apply here because that was not during or after parabolic moves.

Again, see the picture.

1 hour ago, 7thLetter said:

Also, people wanting to buy isn't as important as how much they're willing to put in. 100,000 people could be waiting to buy but if all they have is $5K each then that's nothing. What's more important is if they have billions of dollars in cash. I'm sure everyone wanted to buy when BTC was $19K in 2017 also, and once started to drop all they did was buy into the crash. Demand will drop as price starts to crash. So people wanting to buy doesn't mean anything. Tell me who these people are and how much money they have that's more important.

When I say "people", I also mean insitutions, banks, etc. Big players in other words.

 

I think I am right. You think you're right. I can't change that. But yes, time will tell.

 

EDIT: or maybe I should have been using the word "bull market" instead of "bull run".

Edited January 21, 2021 by vinc3nc

[7thLetter]

44 minutes ago, vinc3nc said:

The first mistake that you (or we) are making is that you're comparing this to the 2017 bull run. The current bull run will probably resemble more the 2012/2013 one. If you look at that one, you will see it had 2 booms in one bull run. But it never went below previous ATH, which means that it was one bull run really.

I think you mean between 2013 and 2014 and yes I see there’s two impulse or parabolic moves. But back then was different because we both already know it takes a smaller amount of money back then to see jumps like that.

And its funny, whether you realize it or not you’re looking for a confirmation bias to prove a point. “Nope can’t be like 2017 there’s only one parabolic move here, no not 2016, hmm let’s see here.. ah yes its more like the 2013 one with two parabolic moves! This one certainly confirms my bias!”

44 minutes ago, vinc3nc said:

Also, if BTC wicks below 20k but later closes its candle above 20k, then it doesn't count as if it broke 20k really and that the bull run is over.

It depends on what timeframe you’re looking at. Again, you’re not acknowledging the importance of timeframes. The higher the timeframe the stronger it is.

44 minutes ago, vinc3nc said:

Lol, the current bull run is not over if it dips below 30k. I don't think you properly understand what a market cycle is, or a bull run for that matter. I'll post a picture for you below to help you understand what market cycles really are.

I didn’t clarify my bad. If it dips below $30K then that means it has created a new lower low and broken support. With broken support would mean price could push down further to $20K and potentially $10K. Then, the parabolic move is certainly over.

48 minutes ago, vinc3nc said:

Also, you're too focused on the price alone and not enough on the % of the price. A 12-13k drop might seem a lot in terms of price, but it's not even a 30% correction, and you call that the ending of the bull run.

Already clarified this above.

51 minutes ago, vinc3nc said:

EDIT: or maybe I should have been using the word "bull market" instead of "bull run".

Bull run bull market same thing. But it really depends on the timeframe once again. If we’re talking short term within’ 1 Year then yes I think it could be over. If we’re talking 10 years sure we can say Bitcoin is on a bull run to the upside.

I’ve seen this picture before already. Could we really hit the top at $100K who knows. But if you actually know TA outside of crypto you would know that channels don’t perfectly bounce in between the lines. Its possible BTC drops at this point then reaches the top at $100K at a later point. It doesn’t have to get there in a perfectly straight line.

[vinc3nc]

34 minutes ago, 7thLetter said:

I think you mean between 2013 and 2014 and yes I see there’s two impulse or parabolic moves. But back then was different because we both already know it takes a smaller amount of money back then to see jumps like that.

In 2013 mostly, in 2014 it was already over (the bear market started).

Back then it was different in % gain only. This time the graph can look similarly, only the % will be different 500-1000% instead of 10000%. So 2 booms again are possible.

34 minutes ago, 7thLetter said:

And its funny, whether you realize it or not you’re looking for a confirmation bias to prove a point. “Nope can’t be like 2017 there’s only one parabolic move here, no not 2016, hmm let’s see here.. ah yes its more like the 2013 one with two parabolic moves! This one certainly confirms my bias!”

Lol. it wasn't me who made this up. Lots of people with a lot more knowledge than me said that that could be the case - that this run might be more like the 2013 run than the 2017 one. We are both listening to certain people and make our opinions based on that. Don't act as I am the only one doing that.

34 minutes ago, 7thLetter said:

It depends on what timeframe you’re looking at. Again, you’re not acknowledging the importance of timeframes. The higher the timeframe the stronger it is.

Where did you see that I'm not acknowledging the importance of timeframes? You just made that up. Trust me, I understand well enough that weekly or daily candles are way more important than 4-h, or 1-h candles. So, when I talked about closing of the candles, I meant big timeframe candles of course, but I just assumed you would know that.

34 minutes ago, 7thLetter said:

I didn’t clarify my bad. If it dips below $30K then that means it has created a new lower low and broken support. With broken support would mean price could push down further to $20K and potentially $10K. Then, the parabolic move is certainly over.

Look at the 2013 bull run. It made a lower low, but the bull market continued later. The problem here is that you're the one not looking at the big picture (long-term). We can call here any move upwards a bull run if we want, or we can be more accurate and call a bull run only when it happens on a larger scale - when we are actually in a bull market (after a prolonged bear market).

34 minutes ago, 7thLetter said:

Bull run bull market same thing. But it really depends on the timeframe once again. If we’re talking short term within’ 1 Year then yes I think it could be over. If we’re talking 10 years sure we can say Bitcoin is on a bull run to the upside.

I’ve seen this picture before already. Could we really hit the top at $100K who knows. But if you actually know TA outside of crypto you would know that channels don’t perfectly bounce in between the lines. Its possible BTC drops at this point then reaches the top at $100K at a later point. It doesn’t have to get there in a perfectly straight line.

I would say that long-term is 5, 10 or even more years, mid-term 1-3 years, and short-term less than a year. So for example, if you say that you're bullish long-term, that means you believe that BTC will succeed eventually as a cryptocurrency. If you're bullish midterm, then you probably believe that you're bullish for the next year or so, or if you're bearish midterm, then you're believe we will be in a bear market for the next 1-3 years. If you're bullish short-term, then maybe you're only bullish for a few months, or bearish for a few months.

So you can be bearish now for a few months (till 20k for example), but you don't believe the bull market is over yet, because you believe it can hit 100k at the end of the year. Hope that makes sense.

And no one said these graphs are perfect. But they can make you understand things better in general. They give you an idea what BTC is about, and how it behaves.

Edited January 21, 2021 by vinc3nc

[Thought Art]

Yeah, I am not gonna bet on 'getting rich quick' on crypto. But I suspect it is worth studying, and partaking. I think Crypto is gonna be a big part of the future. I respect Leo's opinion, I have to really look at it though. There is a some cool stuff surrounding it.

Edited January 21, 2021 by Thought Art

[7thLetter]

17 hours ago, vinc3nc said:

Lol. it wasn't me who made this up. Lots of people with a lot more knowledge than me said that that could be the case - that this run might be more like the 2013 run than the 2017 one. We are both listening to certain people and make our opinions based on that. Don't act as I am the only one doing that.

You think my opinions are mainly based on what other people say? Aw thanks I take that as a compliment . I think for myself for the most part, everything I've ever said has been my own opinion and is not something someone else said. The TA is what I do on my own. Yes I do listen to other gurus but I still form my own opinion. I only follow two crypto Youtube channels (Datadash & Chico Crypto), and I think they're bullish from here for the most part.

17 hours ago, vinc3nc said:

Where did you see that I'm not acknowledging the importance of timeframes? You just made that up.

There have been 3 instances where you haven't specified the timeframe in conversation. Ask and I'll kindly quote these 3 instances here for you.

17 hours ago, vinc3nc said:

The problem here is that you're the one not looking at the big picture (long-term).

Why is it a "problem" when I'm literally saying my opinion is short-term? All I'm saying is $10K-$20K is possible, its not like I'm saying BTC will go to $0.

17 hours ago, vinc3nc said:

So you can be bearish now for a few months (till 20k for example), but you don't believe the bull market is over yet, because you believe it can hit 100k at the end of the year. Hope that makes sense.

Here's my final opinion, I'm neutral about where price could go from here. IF we see the break of $30K support then I'm bearish, price could go to $20K or $10K. We've already seen price make a new lower low for the week and touch $29K recently but it hasn't broken the $30K support level.

IF we break above $40K and make new all-time highs then I'm bullish.

But for the most part I'm bearish from here short-term.

Below is what my chart looks like. In the bearish case it'll break $30K & $20K then touch the green uptrend line around $10K-$13K. That's why I call around $10K. We're still in January and 2022 is far from now, $100K might be possible still especially when everyone is calling it. If everyone believes it then maybe that's enough for it to work out. But then there's the possibility they're just saying that to manipulate everyone to push the price up.

John McAfee back then said he'll eat his dick on national TV if BTC doesn't hit $500K-$1M by 2020. That language is so manipulative and that's way too optimistic. Obviously we didn't hit $500K or $1M, and he didn't eat his dick. He probably just said that to get people to push the price up.

My chart: