Any predictions on the Georgia Senate runoffs?

[DocWatts]

10 hours ago, Leo Gura said:

Crazy can't be kept up forever. Things will temper out. When all these crazy conservatives lose a bunch of elections all over the place the lesson will be re-learned that crazy Republicans can't win. And so moderates will come to the fore like George W. Bush. And they will have much better chances of winning.

And as evidence for what a precarious situation we now find ourselves in, 'moderate' in this context seems to mean 'agrees to abide by basic democratic principles' and 'is not a fascist', two things that should be a given in a democratic country. 

Edited January 7, 2021 by DocWatts

[TheAlchemist]

On 6.1.2021 at 11:10 PM, Leo Gura said:

@Hardkill I hope so

It's crazy how razor thin US elections are. Especially when the Republicans keep putting up monsters as their candidates.

The saddest thing of all is that these elections should be a slam dunk for Dems.

Which is the clearest proof that people like Ken Wilber and Don Beck are wrong. America is nowhere close to solid Green yet, let alone Yellow.

The rural parts of the country are shockingly regressive. The real question no one is asking is: as cities develop, how do we help rural folks evolve? If we leave the rural folks behind it will come back to bite us, as we see with Trumpism. Trumpism is a rural phenomenon.

Interesting ? Brexit was also a rural phenomenon 

[Hardkill]

On 1/6/2021 at 10:15 PM, Leo Gura said:

Crazy can't be kept up forever. Things will temper out. When all these crazy conservatives lose a bunch of elections all over the place the lesson will be re-learned that crazy Republicans can't win. And so moderates will come to the fore like George W. Bush. And they will have much better chances of winning.

 

On 1/7/2021 at 8:15 AM, DocWatts said:

And as evidence for what a precarious situation we now find ourselves in, 'moderate' in this context seems to mean 'agrees to abide by basic democratic principles' and 'is not a fascist', two things that should be a given in a democratic country. 

Well, it's really gonna interesting to see from here on out what happens to the entire Republican Party. I actually hope that it does get broken up in two separate smaller parties. 

[Leo Gura]

16 minutes ago, Hardkill said:

Well, it's really gonna interesting to see from here on out what happens to the entire Republican Party. I actually hope that it does get broken up in two separate smaller parties. 

My guess is, once Trump is kicked out, sued, and publically shamed -- Trumpism will die out rather quickly and be replaced with some new brand of right-wing movement.

Trumpism will look so ugly soon that it will need to be re-branded. But of course the fundamental ideology will still remain the same. Right-wing populism and its delusions are not going away soon.

Think of the Tea Party in the Obama days. They basically rebranded themselves as MAGA.

[Hardkill]

FYI, Kelly Loeffler officially conceded her defeat to Warnock yesterday. Even though technically there are still about 1-1.5% of the votes to count, right now Warnock lead has grown to 1.8%. Also, there are still about 4,370 votes left to count from Henry county, which is a moderately democratic area. The only other counties that are still not quite finished with counting all of there votes are small republican ones including Peach, Fayette, and Ware. Each fo those republicans are really almost done, and if you combine all of the remaining votes together that they have left to count, then they have an estimated total of less than 3,000 votes left to count.  So, the Loeffler campaign probably realized that all in all there's now absolutely no chance for her to win her race.

Also, Ossoff lead has grown to a full percentage point, and his lead is still seems to be trending upward. So, Ossoff will end up winning his race with enough of a comfortable lead.

 

 

 

[Leo Gura]

20 minutes ago, Hardkill said:

FYI, Kelly Loeffler officially conceded her defeat to Warnock yesterday. Even though technically there are still about 1-1.5% of the votes to count, right now Warnock lead has grown to 1.8%. Also, there are still about 4,370 votes left to count from Henry county, which is a moderately democratic area. The only other counties that are still not quite finished with counting all of there votes are small republican ones including Peach, Fayette, and Ware. Each fo those republicans are really almost done, and if you combine all of the remaining votes together that they have left to count, then they have an estimated total of less than 3,000 votes left to count.  So, the Loeffler campaign probably realized that all in all there's now absolutely no chance for her to win her race.

Also, Ossoff lead has grown to a full percentage point, and his lead is still seems to be trending upward. So, Ossoff will end up winning his race with enough of a comfortable lead.

Amazin'

[Hardkill]

30 minutes ago, Leo Gura said:

My guess is, once Trump is kicked out, sued, and publically shamed -- Trumpism will die out rather quickly and be replaced with some new brand of right-wing movement.

Trumpism will look so ugly soon that it will need to be re-branded. But of course the fundamental ideology will still remain the same. Right-wing populism and its delusions are not going away soon.

Think of the Tea Party in the Obama days. They basically rebranded themselves as MAGA.

I pray that Trumpism does die out. Though, I think you're right that the Trumpism movement will probably transform into another bad right right movement or faction.

[Hardkill]

More goods news! David Perdue finally conceded as well. All that’s left now are to count the last approx. 1% of the votes remaining and then have the results of both of the Georgia US Senate elections certified.

[Hardkill]

alright guys, as of yesterday, Secretary of State of Georgia, Brad Raffensperger finally certified the results of the Georgia Senate runoffs! Warnock finished with a 2 point lead and Ossoff finished with a 1.2 point lead. All that's left is for the both of these Senator-elects to be sworn into their offices today and then Chuck Schumer will take over today as the new US Senate Majority leader!

Edited January 20, 2021 by Hardkill

[Leo Gura]

Welp, looks like I was wrong on this one.

[ItsNick]

1 hour ago, Leo Gura said:

Welp, looks like I was wrong on this one.

Thank God you were

[Hardkill]

On 1/20/2021 at 0:37 PM, Leo Gura said:

Welp, looks like I was wrong on this one.

It's okay. As much of a cliche as this sounds, nobody can get everything right. Besides, these senate races were very hard to predict considering how close they ended up being. 

Btw, I have to say that I was really impressed with your final prediction on the 2020 presidential election results. You probably turned out to be one of the very few people out there in the US who got it all right (with the exception of North Carolina and Georgia being the only states you had in reverse or backwards of the actual outcome).

On 1/20/2021 at 1:55 PM, ItsNick said:

Thank God you were

Yeah, I honestly got really worried and even felt depressed when he thought that the Dems would lose, given how accurate Leo's predictions were for both the 2020 democratic primaries and the 2020 general election. Though, I am going to honest with you all. I had a gut feeling that both Ossoff and Warnock were very likely to win given how much shit Trump did to fuck up both Loeffler's and Perdue's chance of getting re-election combined with how much of a killer job political activists like Stacey Abrams did to tremendously boost Democrat voter turnout in Georgia. God bless her. 

I also think that McConnell made a mistake for himself and all of his GOP senators by blocking the $2,000 stimulus checks from being passed. I really think that that also cost him his leadership position as Senate Majority leader.  It's also possible that progressive Congressmen like Bernie Sanders who did play hardball with the Republican senators over the stimulus checks and the defense bill last December also helped Ossoff and Warnock win their races.